Inference for nonparametric high-frequency estimators with an application to time variation in betas

We consider the problem of conducting inference on nonparametric high-frequency estimators without knowing their asymptotic variances. We prove that a multivariate subsampling method achieves this goal under general conditions that were not previously available in the literature. We suggest a procedure for a data-driven choice of the bandwidth parameters. Our simulation study indicates that the subsampling method is much more robust than the plug-in method based on the asymptotic expression for the variance. Importantly, the subsampling method reliably estimates the variability of the Two Scale estimator even when its parameters are chosen to minimize the finite sample Mean Squared Error; in contrast, the plugin estimator substantially underestimates the sampling uncertainty. By construction, the subsampling method delivers estimates of the variance-covariance matrices that are always positive semi-definite. We use the subsampling method to study the dynamics of financial betas of six stocks on the NYSE. We document significant variation in betas within year 2006, and find that tick data captures more variation in betas than the data sampled at moderate frequencies such as every five or twenty minutes. To capture this variation we estimate a simple dynamic model for betas. The variance estimation is also important for the correction of the errors-in-variables bias in such models. We find that the bias corrections are substantial, and that betas are more persistent than the naive estimators would lead one to believe.

Sexage et phylogénie, à partir des gènes CHD (-Z et -W) et COX-1, des oiseaux de proie du Québec et de perroquets d’attrait vétérinaire

Connaître le sexe d’un oiseau est important pour divers domaines notamment pour les vétérinaires, les écologistes ainsi que pour les éleveurs d’oiseaux qui veulent former des couples qui serviront à la reproduction. Plusieurs espèces d’oiseaux, juvéniles et adultes, n’ont pas de dimorphisme sexuel. L’utilisation de l’ADN est une façon rapide de déterminer le sexe à partir d’un échantillon de sang, de muscle, de plumes ou de fèces. Par contre, la méthode devrait être validée pour chaque espèce et idéalement, standardisée. Le premier objectif de cette étude est de développer une méthode de sexage par séquençage des oiseaux à partir des séquences du gène CHD, en utilisant les oiseaux de proie et les perroquets vus en clinique au Québec. Un deuxième objectif est de faire l’identification de l’espèce à sexer, à partir du gène mitochondrial COX-1 et aussi à partir des séquences CHD-Z et CHD-W, utilisés pour le sexage. Un troisième objectif est d’évaluer les séquences sorties (CHD-Z, CHD-W et COX-1) en vue d’une étude phylogénique. Une extraction d’ADN a été effectuée chez 27 espèces de perroquets, 34 espèces d’oiseaux de proie, une corneille (Corvus brachyrhynchos) et un poulet (Gallus gallus). Une amplification par PCR a été exécutée pour les exons partiels 23 et 24 du gène CHD. Le séquençage de cet amplicon permettait de savoir s’il s’agissait d’un mâle (séquence simple CHD-Z) ou d’une femelle (séquences CHD-Z et CHD-W qui se chevauchent). Afin d’avoir des séquences CHD-W distinctes, un sous-clonage a été fait chez les femelles de chaque espèce. De cette manière, les séquences partielles du gène CHD, Z et W, ont été trouvées pour les espèces échantillonnées. Une étude phylogénique a été effectuée avec les séquences de COX-1, CHD-Z et CHD-W grâce au site « Clustal-Omega ». La méthode de sexage des oiseaux par séquençage du gène CHD est standard et efficace. Le gène COX-1 permet une meilleure identification des espèces parentes et le gène CHD-Z est le plus utile pour étudier la phylogénie profonde.

Photoacoustic Thermal Characterization of Porous Rare-Earth Phosphate Ceramics

The laser induced non-destructive photoacoustic technique has been employed to measure the thermal diffusivity of lanthanum phosphate ceramics prepared by the sol–gel route. The thermal diffusivity value was evaluated by knowing the transition frequency between the thermally thin to thermally thick region from the log–log plot of photoacoustic amplitude versus chopping frequency. Analysis of the data was carried out on the basis of the one-dimensional model of Rosencwaig and Gersho. The present investigation reveals that the sintering temperature has great influence on the propagation of heat carriers and hence on the thermal diffusivity value. The results were interpreted in terms of variations in porosity with sintering temperature as well as with changes in grain size.

Photoacoustic thermal characterization of Al2O3–Ag ceramic nanocomposites

Laser-induced nondestructive photoacoustic (PA) technique has been employed to determine the thermal diffusivity of nanometal (Ag) dispersed ceramic alumina matrix sintered at different temperatures. The thermal diffusivity values are evaluated by knowing the transition frequency from the amplitude spectrum of PA signal using the one-dimensional heat flow model of Rosencwaig and Gersho. Analysis of the data shows that heat transport and hence the thermal diffusivity value is greatly affected by the influence of incorporation of foreign atom. It is also seen that sintering temperature affects the thermal diffusivity value in a substantial manner. The results are interpreted in terms of variation in porosity and carrier-assisted heat transport mechanism in nanometal dispersed ceramics.

Role of social pressure as a key contributor of materialism and related status consumption

“At resale stores I have seen brand new clothes with original price tag still hanging from the sleeve. Some children have so many toys that they stay frustrated, not knowing which one to pick up for their next amusement. Presumably sensible adults trade in perfectly good cars just to have something shinier and newer. Didn’t us once live productive normal lives, without all these gadgets” [Cunningham (2005)]. During late eighties, nearly forty four percent of the participants, who took part in a consumer survey conducted in the US, responded positively to the question “My closets are filled with still 2 unopened items” [Faber and O’Guinn (1988)]. Reading such excerpts does not greatly surprise us anymore; as such reports have become common now. For many people shopping has moved beyond something that caters to their needs and wants and has become a hobby [Cunningham (2005)], an activity that they engage in to satisfy their hedonistic or pleasure-seeking goals [Ramnathan and Menon(2006), O’Cass and McEween (2004), Faber and O’Guinn (1989)]. Others look at their new possession as something that fills a void in their lives [Belk (1985), Diener et al. (1993)].

Analyse und Beschreibung des Innengewindefertigungsverfahrens Gewindefurchen auf Basis eines Modellversuchs

Das Gewindefurchen ist ein spanloses Fertigungsverfahren zur Herstellung von Innengewinden. Es bietet wesentliche Vorteile gegenüber der spanenden Innengewindeherstellung, wie z.B. keine Notwendigkeit zur Spanentsorgung, höhere Festigkeit der Gewindeflanken und eine erhöhte Prozessgeschwindigkeit. Um die Vorteile des Verfahrens unter wirtschaftlichen und technologischen Aspekten besser auszunutzen, bietet die Weiterentwicklung der Werkzeuggeometrie sowohl im makroskopischen als auch im mikroskopischen Bereich ein enormes Potential, welches nicht nur bezüglich der Standzeit bzw. Standmenge und Prozessgeschwindigkeit, sondern auch hinsichtlich der Qualität der erzeugten Gewinde erschlossen werden sollte. Durch die empirische Untersuchung der technischen und physikalischen Eigenschaften am Gewindefurcher sollen der Anformbereich und die Formkeilgeometrie in Abhängigkeit verschiedener Prozessparameter und Werkstoffe verbessert werden, um optimale Bearbeitungsergebnisse hinsichtlich der hergestellten Gewindefurchen und des auftretenden Verschleißes am Gewindefurcher bzw. Formkeils zu erreichen. Die Basis dieser Untersuchungen bildet ein neuartiger Modellversuch, bei dem modifizierte Gewindefurcher verwendet werden, die derart umgestaltet sind, dass von einem üblichen Gewindefurcher durch Umschleifen nur noch ein einzelner Gewindegang am Werkzeug verbleibt. Dadurch ist es möglich, in einer vergrößerten Vorbohrung mit einem Formkeil die einzelnen Umformstufen beim Gewindefurchen separat zu fertigen, die auftretenden Prozesskräfte während des Eingriffs in das Werkstück zu messen und das Bearbeitungsergebnis im Werkstück und den Verschleiß am Formkeil zu bewerten. Weiterhin wird eine rein theoretische Methode beschrieben, mit der die Berechnung der Umformkraft und darauf basierend der Furchmomente am Formkeil bzw. dem ganzen Gewindefurcher möglich ist. Durch die Kenntnis der berechneten Kräfte und Momente am einzelnen Formkeil bzw. dem Gewindefurcher kann bereits in der Konzeptionsphase eines Gewindefurchers eine Anpassung des Werkszeuges an die jeweiligen Bearbeitungsanforderungen durchgeführt werden, wodurch der Entwurf von Gewindefurchern wesentlich wirtschaftlicher realisierbar ist, als durch rein empirische Herangehensweisen.

Research through DESIGN through research - a problem statement and a conceptual sketch

This paper re-addresses the issue of a lacking genuine design research paradigm. It tries to sketch an operational model of such a paradigm, based upon a generic design process model, which is derived from basic notions of evolution and learning in different domains of knowing (and turns out to be not very different from existing ones). It does not abandon the scientific paradigm but concludes that the latter has to be embedded into / subordinated under a design paradigm.

Designing in the real world is complex anyway - so what?

Designing is a heterogeneous, fuzzily defined, floating field of various activities and chunks of ideas and knowledge. Available theories about the foundations of designing as presented in "the basic PARADOX" (Jonas and Meyer-Veden 2004) have evoked the impression of Babylonian confusion. We located the reasons for this "mess" in the "non-fit", which is the problematic relation of theories and subject field. There seems to be a comparable interface problem in theory-building as in designing itself. "Complexity" sounds promising, but turns out to be a problematic and not really helpful concept. I will argue for a more precise application of systemic and evolutionary concepts instead, which - in my view - are able to model the underlying generative structures and processes that produce the visible phenomenon of complexity. It does not make sense to introduce a new fashionable meta-concept and to hope for a panacea before having clarified the more basic and still equally problematic older meta-concepts. This paper will take one step away from "theories of what" towards practice and doing and try to have a closer look at existing process models or "theories of how" to design instead. Doing this from a systemic perspective leads to an evolutionary view of the process, which finally allows to specify more clearly the "knowledge gaps" inherent in the design process. This aspect has to be taken into account as constitutive of any attempt at theory-building in design, which can be characterized as a "practice of not-knowing". I conclude, that comprehensive "unified" theories, or methods, or process models run aground on the identified knowledge gaps, which allow neither reliable models of the present, nor reliable projections into the future. Consolation may be found in performing a shift from the effort of adaptation towards strategies of exaptation, which means the development of stocks of alternatives for coping with unpredictable situations in the future.

Economics of Hybrid Photovoltaic Power Plants

The global power supply stability is faced to several severe and fundamental threats, in particular steadily increasing power demand, diminishing and degrading fossil and nuclear energy resources, very harmful greenhouse gas emissions, significant energy injustice and a structurally misbalanced ecological footprint. Photovoltaic (PV) power systems are analysed in various aspects focusing on economic and technical considerations of supplemental and substitutional power supply to the constraint conventional power system. To infer the most relevant system approach for PV power plants several solar resources available for PV systems are compared. By combining the different solar resources and respective economics, two major PV systems are identified to be very competitive in almost all regions in the world. The experience curve concept is used as a key technique for the development of scenario assumptions on economic projections for the decade of the 2010s. Main drivers for cost reductions in PV systems are learning and production growth rate, thus several relevant aspects are discussed such as research and development investments, technical PV market potential, different PV technologies and the energetic sustainability of PV. Three major market segments for PV systems are identified: off-grid PV solutions, decentralised small scale on-grid PV systems (several kWp) and large scale PV power plants (tens of MWp). Mainly by application of ‘grid-parity’ and ‘fuel-parity’ concepts per country, local market and conventional power plant basis, the global economic market potential for all major PV system segments is derived. PV power plant hybridization potential of all relevant power technologies and the global power plant structure are analyzed regarding technical, economical and geographical feasibility. Key success criteria for hybrid PV power plants are discussed and comprehensively analysed for all adequate power plant technologies, i.e. oil, gas and coal fired power plants, wind power, solar thermal power (STEG) and hydro power plants. For the 2010s, detailed global demand curves are derived for hybrid PV-Fossil power plants on a per power plant, per country and per fuel type basis. The fundamental technical and economic potentials for hybrid PV-STEG, hybrid PV-Wind and hybrid PV-Hydro power plants are considered. The global resource availability for PV and wind power plants is excellent, thus knowing the competitive or complementary characteristic of hybrid PV-Wind power plants on a local basis is identified as being of utmost relevance. The complementarity of hybrid PV-Wind power plants is confirmed. As a result of that almost no reduction of the global economic PV market potential need to be expected and more complex power system designs on basis of hybrid PV-Wind power plants are feasible. The final target of implementing renewable power technologies into the global power system is a nearly 100% renewable power supply. Besides balancing facilities, storage options are needed, in particular for seasonal power storage. Renewable power methane (RPM) offers respective options. A comprehensive global and local analysis is performed for analysing a hybrid PV-Wind-RPM combined cycle gas turbine power system. Such a power system design might be competitive and could offer solutions for nearly all current energy system constraints including the heating and transportation sector and even the chemical industry. Summing up, hybrid PV power plants become very attractive and PV power systems will very likely evolve together with wind power to the major and final source of energy for mankind.

India’s Carbon Governance: The Clean Development Mechanism

Carbon Governance systems – institutional arrangements in place for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions – are different in emerging countries. Indeed, carbon is the same everywhere but Carbon Governance isn’t: in Brazil, the financial community is actively interested in carbon trading, but Chinese banks have hardly any interest in it; and while the Chinese government takes an active interest in providing capacity to project developers, the Brazilian authorities see their role uniquely as guarantors of environmental integrity of emissions reductions projects. In the case of India, carbon governance offers specific features of patterns and interactions mostly because India strongly developed the Clean Development Mechanism and its market. This article proposes a study to the research and understanding of how exactly carbon governance works in the Indian case, knowing that India is the second largest host of CDM projects.

Procedures as a Representation for Data in a Computer Program for Understanding Natural Language

This paper describes a system for the computer understanding of English. The system answers questions, executes commands, and accepts information in normal English dialog. It uses semantic information and context to understand discourse and to disambiguate sentences. It combines a complete syntactic analysis of each sentence with a "heuristic understander" which uses different kinds of information about a sentence, other parts of the discourse, and general information about the world in deciding what the sentence means. It is based on the belief that a computer cannot deal reasonably with language unless it can "understand" the subject it is discussing. The program is given a detailed model of the knowledge needed by a simple robot having only a hand and an eye. We can give it instructions to manipulate toy objects, interrogate it about the scene, and give it information it will use in deduction. In addition to knowing the properties of toy objects, the program has a simple model of its own mentality. It can remember and discuss its plans and actions as well as carry them out. It enters into a dialog with a person, responding to English sentences with actions and English replies, and asking for clarification when its heuristic programs cannot understand a sentence through use of context and physical knowledge.

Measuring Value in Product Development

“What is value in product development?” is the key question of this paper. The answer is critical to the creation of lean in product development. By knowing how much value is added by product development (PD) activities, decisions can be more rationally made about how to allocate resources, such as time and money.

On exiting after voting

We consider the problem of a society whose members must choose from a finite set of alternatives. After knowing the chosen alternative, members may reconsider their membership in the society by either staying or exiting. In turn, and as a consequence of the exit of some of its members, other members might now find undersirable to belong to the society as well. We analyze the voting behavior of members who take into account the effect of their votes not only on the chosen alternative, but also on the final composition of the society

Measuring Value in Product Development

“What is value in product development?” is the key question of this paper. The answer is critical to the creation of lean in product development. By knowing how much value is added by product development (PD) activities, decisions can be more rationally made about how to allocate resources, such as time and money. In order to apply the principles of Lean Thinking and remove waste from the product development system, value must be precisely defined. Unfortunately, value is a complex entity that is composed of many dimensions and has thus far eluded definition on a local level. For this reason, research has been initiated on “Measuring Value in Product Development.” This paper serves as an introduction to this research. It presents the current understanding of value in PD, the critical questions involved, and a specific research design to guide the development of a methodology for measuring value. Work in PD value currently focuses on either high-level perspectives on value, or detailed looks at the attributes that value might have locally in the PD process. Models that attempt to capture value in PD are reviewed. These methods, however, do not capture the depth necessary to allow for application. A methodology is needed to evaluate activities on a local level to determine the amount of value they add and their sensitivity with respect to performance, cost, time, and risk. Two conceptual tools are proposed. The first is a conceptual framework for value creation in PD, referred to here as the Value Creation Model. The second tool is the Value-Activity Map, which shows the relationships between specific activities and value attributes. These maps will allow a better understanding of the development of value in PD, will facilitate comparison of value development between separate projects, and will provide the information necessary to adapt process analysis tools (such as DSM) to consider value. The key questions that this research entails are: · What are the primary attributes of lifecycle value within PD? · How can one model the creation of value in a specific PD process? · Can a useful methodology be developed to quantify value in PD processes? · What are the tools necessary for application? · What PD metrics will be integrated with the necessary tools? The research milestones are: · Collection of value attributes and activities (September, 200) · Development of methodology of value-activity association (October, 2000) · Testing and refinement of the methodology (January, 2001) · Tool Development (March, 2001) · Present findings at July INCOSE conference (April, 2001) · Deliver thesis that captures a formalized methodology for defining value in PD (including LEM data sheets) (June, 2001) The research design aims for the development of two primary deliverables: a methodology to guide the incorporation of value, and a product development tool that will allow direct application.

Análisis de los factores que han limitado la implementación de los decretos 112 a 116 de 2003 de reestructuración del sistema de transporte público colectivo en Bogotá

El problema del transporte público colectivo (TPC) en Bogotá es complejo, caracterizado por una inconstante sobreoferta que se ve reflejada, como primera medida, en una tarifa para el transporte público inflada por encima del costo real. Sumado a esto, la debilidad institucional es muy grande, generando así una acumulación de poder a favor de los transportadores, a quienes la sobreoferta les resulta lucrativa. Y si le adicionamos el componente de incentivos que la misma Administración Distrital promueve, con el ineficiente sistema de funcionamiento y adjudicación de rutas, la situación se hace aún más critica. Para reducir la sobreoferta el gobierno de Bogotá ha promulgado una serie de políticas que no han resultado efectivas. Las más estructuradas y optimistas se dieron en la administración Mockus, donde se expidieron los decretos 112 a 116 de 2003 de reestructuración del transporte público, que buscaban reducir la sobreoferta y mejorar la calidad del servicio, que iba en decadencia. El siguiente documento intenta analizar como los decretos mencionados pueden haber sido apenas una estrategia jurídica y una muy limitada política pública al menos por 3 razones especificas: la primera hace referencia a las deficiencias en el momento de la planificación y formulación de la política pública, la segunda analiza el problema de desconocer la existencia e influencia determinante de los transportadores como grupo de presión con poderes económicos y políticos. Y la tercera describe de que manera el alto grado de impunidad a la hora de detectar, juzgar y sancionar a los infractores; ha creado aún más traumatismos en la implementación de estas normas.