Predicting present and future intra-specific genetic structure through niche hindcasting across 24 millennia.

Paleoclimatic reconstructions coupled with species distribution models and identification of extant spatial genetic structure have the potential to provide insights into the demographic events that shape the distribution of intra-specific genetic variation across time. Using the globeflower Trollius europaeus as a case-study, we combined (1) Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, (2) suites of 1000-years stepwise hindcasted species distributions and (3) a model of diffusion through time over the last 24,000 years, to trace the spatial dynamics that most likely fits the species' current genetic structure. We show that the globeflower comprises four gene pools in Europe which, from the dry period preceding the Last Glacial Maximum, dispersed while tracking the conditions fitting its climatic niche. Among these four gene pools, two are predicted to experience drastic range retraction in the near future. Our interdisciplinary approach, applicable to virtually any taxon, is an advance in inferring how climate change impacts species' genetic structures.

Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?

Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and averagelatitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northerndistributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts

Europeans and Biotechnology in 2010. Winds of change?

George Gaskell and colleagues designed, analysed and interpreted the Eurobarometer 73.1 on the Life Sciences and Biotechnology as part of the research project Sensitive Technologies and European Public Ethics (STEPE), funded by the Science in Society Programme of the EC’s Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (FP7).

Dynamic models of energy allocation and investment

In dynamic models of energy allocation, assimilated energy is allocated to reproduction, somatic growth, maintenance or storage, and the allocation pattern can change with age. The expected evolutionary outcome is an optimal allocation pattern, but this depends on the environment experienced during the evolutionary process and on the fitness costs and benefits incurred by allocating resources in different ways. Here we review existing treatments which encompass some of the possibilities as regards constant or variable environments and their predictability or unpredictability, and the ways in which production rates and mortality rates depend on body size and composition and age and on the pattern of energy allocation. The optimal policy is to allocate resources where selection pressures are highest, and simultaneous allocation to several body subsystems and reproduction can be optimal if these pressures are equal. This may explain balanced growth commonly observed during ontogeny. Growth ceases at maturity in many models; factors favouring growth after maturity include non-linear trade-offs, variable season length, and production and mortality rates both increasing (or decreasing) functions of body size. We cannot yet say whether these are sufficient to account for the many known cases of growth after maturity and not all reasonable models have yet been explored. Factors favouring storage are also reviewed.

Reconstruction of the recent history of a large deep prealpine lake (Lake Bourget, France) using subfossil chironomids, diatoms, and organic matter analysis: towards the definition of a lake-specific reference state

This paper presents the recent history of a large prealpine lake (Lake Bourget) using chironomids, diatoms and organic matter analysis, and deals with the ability of paleolimnological approach to define an ecological reference state for the lake in the sense of the European Framework Directive. The study at low resolution of subfossil chironomids in a 4-m-long core shows the remarkable stability over the last 2.5 kyrs of the profundal community dominated by a Micropsectra-association until the beginning of the twentieth century, when oxyphilous taxa disappeared. Focusing on this key recent period, a high resolution and multiproxy study of two short cores reveals a progressive evolution of the lake's ecological state. Until AD 1880, Lake Bourget showed low organic matter content in the deep sediments (TOC less than 1%) and a well-oxygenated hypolimnion that allowed the development of a profundal oxyphilous chironomid fauna (Micropsectra-association). Diatom communities were characteristic of oligotrophic conditions. Around AD 1880, a slight increase in the TOC was the first sign of changes in lake conditions. This was followed by a first limited decline in oligotrophic diatom taxa and the disappearance of two oxyphilous chironomid taxa at the beginning of the twentieth century. The 1940s were a major turning point in recent lake history. Diatom assemblages and accumulation of well preserved planktonic organic matter in the sediment provide evidence of strong eutrophication. The absence of profundal chironomid communities reveals permanent hypolimnetic anoxia. From AD 1995 to 2006, the diatom assemblages suggest a reduction in nutrients, and a return to mesotrophic conditions, a result of improved wastewater management. However, no change in hypolimnion benthic conditions has been shown by either the organic matter or the subfossil chironomid profundal community. Our results emphasize the relevance of the paleolimnological approach for the assessment of reference conditions for modern lakes. Before AD 1900, the profundal Micropsectra-association and the Cyclotella dominated diatom community can be considered as the Lake Bourget reference community, which reflects the reference ecological state of the lake.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR), with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

Melanin-specific life-history strategies.

Abstract The maintenance of genetic variation is a long-standing issue because the adaptive value of life-history strategies associated with each genetic variant is usually unknown. However, evidence for the coexistence of alternative evolutionary fixed strategies at the population level remains scarce. Because in the tawny owl (Strix aluco) heritable melanin-based coloration shows different physiological and behavioral norms of reaction, we investigated whether coloration is associated with investment in maintenance and reproduction. Light melanic owls had lower adult survival compared to dark melanic conspecifics, and color variation was related to the trade-off between offspring number and quality. When we experimentally enlarged brood size, light melanic males produced more fledglings but in poorer condition, and they were less often recruited in the local breeding population than those of darker melanic conspecifics. Our results also suggest that dark melanic males allocate a constant effort to raise their brood independently of environmental conditions, whereas lighter melanic males finely adjust reproductive effort in relation to changes in environmental conditions. Color traits can therefore be associated with life-history strategies, and stochastic environmental perturbation can temporarily favor one phenotype over others. The existence of fixed strategies implies that some phenotypes can sometimes display a "maladapted" strategy. Long-term population monitoring is therefore vital for a full understanding of how different genotypes deal with trade-offs.

Covariation between eumelanic pigmentation and body mass only under specific conditions.

Identifying the factors that mediate covariation between an ornament and other phenotypic attributes is important to determine the signaling function of ornaments. Sign and magnitude of a covariation may vary across environments if the expression of the ornament or of its linked genes regulating correlated phenotypes is condition-dependent. I investigated in the barn owl Tyto alba whether sign and magnitude of covariation between body mass and two heritable melanin-based plumage ornaments change with food supply, along the reproductive cycle and from the morning to the evening. Using a dataset of 1,848 measurements of body mass in 336 breeding females, I found that females displaying large black spots were heavier than conspecifics with smaller spots in the afternoon (i.e., a long time after the last feeding) but not in the morning (i.e., a short time after the last feeding). This is consistent with the recently proposed hypothesis that eumelanin-based ornaments are associated with the ability to maintain energy balance between food intake and energy expenditure. Thus, covariation between melanin-based coloration and body mass can be detected only under specific conditions potentially explaining why it has been reported in only ten out of 28 vertebrate species. The proposition that ornamented individuals achieve a higher fitness than drab conspecifics only in specific environments should be tested for other ornaments.

Towards a dynamic model of e-commerce: environmental, technological and organisational drivers of B2C along time

Despite the important benefits for firms of commercial initiatives on the Internet, e-commerce is still an emerging distribution channel, even in developed countries. Thus, more needs to be known about the mechanisms affecting its development. A large number of works have studied firms¿ e-commerce adoption from technological, intraorganizational, institutional, or other specific perspectives, but there is a need for adequately tested integrative frameworks. Hence, this work proposes and tests a model of firms¿ business-to-consumer (called B2C) e-commerce adoption that is founded on a holistic vision of the phenomenon. With this integrative approach, the authors analyze the joint influence of environmental, technological, and organizational factors; moreover, they evaluate this effect over time. Using various representative Spanish data sets covering the period 1996-2005, the findings demonstrate the suitability of the holistic framework. Likewise, some lessons are learned from the analysis of the key building blocks. In particular, the current study provides evidence for the debate about the effect of competitive pressure, since the findings show that competitive pressure disincentivizes e-commerce adoption in the long term. The results also show that the development or enrichment of the consumers¿ consumption patterns, the technological readiness of the market forces, the firm¿s global scope, and its competences in innovation continuously favor e-commerce adoption.

Timing of Capacity Change: Models for Capital Intensive Industry

The suitable timing of capacity investments is a remarkable issue especially in capital intensive industries. Despite its importance, fairly few studies have been published on the topic. In the present study models for the timing of capacity change in capital intensive industry are developed. The study considers mainly the optimal timing of single capacity changes. The review of earlier research describes connections between cost, capacity and timing literature, and empirical examples are used to describe the starting point of the study and to test the developed models. The study includes four models, which describe the timing question from different perspectives. The first model, which minimizes unit costs, has been built for capacity expansion and replacement situations. It is shown that the optimal timing of an investment can be presented with the capacity and cost advantage ratios. After the unit cost minimization model the view is extended to the direction of profit maximization. The second model states that early investments are preferable if the change of fixed costs is small compared to the change of the contribution margin. The third model is a numerical discounted cash flow model, which emphasizes the roles of start-up time, capacity utilization rate and value of waiting as drivers of the profitable timing of a project. The last model expands the view from project level to company level and connects the flexibility of assets and cost structures to the timing problem. The main results of the research are the solutions of the models and analysis or simulations done with the models. The relevance and applicability of the results are verified by evaluating the logic of the models and by numerical cases.

Family interactions in IVF families: change over the transition to parenthood

Objective: This article presents a study of the change over time in the family interactions of couples who conceived through in-vitro fertilisation (IVF). Background: Observational methods are rarely used to study family interactions in families who used assisted reproductive techniques, but these methods are crucial for taking account of the communication that occurs in interactions with infants. Methods: Thirty-one couples expecting their first child were seen during the fifth month of pregnancy and when the child was nine months old. Family interactions were recorded in pre- and postnatal versions of the Lausanne Trilogue Play situation. Measures of marital satisfaction and parent-to-foetus/baby attachment or 'bonding' were also used to assess family relational dynamics. Results: Results showed that family alliance, marital satisfaction and parental attachment scores in the IVF sample were all similar to or higher than those in the reference sample during pregnancy. However, at nine months postnatally, the family alliance scores were lower. While marital satisfaction decreased over the period and parent-baby attachment increased, the family alliance scores were unstable, as no association was observed between the pre- and postnatal scores. In addition, neither prenatal marital satisfaction nor parent-foetus attachment predicted the postnatal family alliance. Conclusion: The change in the family alliance over the transition to parenthood appears to be specific to our IVF sample. Given that postnatal family functioning could not be predicted by prenatal family functioning, our observational data underline the importance of offering postnatal support to these families.

Review. Precision viticulture. Research topics, challenges and opportunities in site-specific vineyard management

Precision Viticulture (PV) is a concept that is beginning to have an impact on the wine-growing sector. Its practical implementation is dependant on various technological developments: crop sensors and yield monitors, local and remote sensors, Global Positioning Systems (GPS), VRA (Variable-Rate Application) equipment and machinery, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and systems for data analysis and interpretation. This paper reviews a number of research lines related to PV. These areas of research have focused on four very specific fields: 1) quantification and evaluation of within-field variability, 2) delineation of zones of differential treatment at parcel level, based on the analysis and interpretation of this variability, 3) development of Variable-Rate Technologies (VRT) and, finally, 4) evaluation of the opportunities for site-specific vineyard management. Research in these fields should allow winegrowers and enologists to know and understand why yield variability exists within the same parcel, what the causes of this variability are, how the yield and its quality are interrelated and, if spatial variability exists, whether site-specific vineyard management is justifiable on a technical and economic basis.

Data-division-specific robustness and power of randomization tests for ABAB designs

This study deals with the statistical properties of a randomization test applied to an ABAB design in cases where the desirable random assignment of the points of change in phase is not possible. In order to obtain information about each possible data division we carried out a conditional Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 samples for each systematically chosen triplet. Robustness and power are studied under several experimental conditions: different autocorrelation levels and different effect sizes, as well as different phase lengths determined by the points of change. Type I error rates were distorted by the presence of autocorrelation for the majority of data divisions. Satisfactory Type II error rates were obtained only for large treatment effects. The relationship between the lengths of the four phases appeared to be an important factor for the robustness and the power of the randomization test.

External Location Factors of Foreign Direct Investment in Russia – Finnish Perspective

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena on selvittää, mitä alueellisia tekijöitä suomalaiset yritykset ottavat huomioon valitessaan sopivaa sijaintia suoralle investoinnille Venäjän sisällä. Muutamia yrityksen sisäisiä tekijöitä käytetään taustamuuttujina selittämään sijaintitekijöiden painotuksissa havaittavia eroja erilaisten yritysten välillä. Venäjän alueita vertaillaan lopuksi painotusten valossa. Työn ensimmäisessä osassa keskitytään suorien ulkomaisten investointien teoreettiseen taustaan. Aiempia tutkimuksia käydään läpi, jotta tekijät, joilla on havaittu olevan vaikutusta investointien sijoittumiseen maan sisällä, saadaan kartoitettua. Työn jälkimmäinen osa perustuu yrityskyselyn avulla kerättyyn empiiriseen aineistoon. Aineiston avulla selvitetään mitä tekijöitä suomalaisyritykset huomioivat sijaintipäätöstä tehdessään. Tulosten valossa on ilmeistä, että alueen markkinapotentiaali on suomalaisyrityksissä tärkein huomioitava tekijä investoinnin sijainnista päätettäessä. Myös infrastruktuuri ja kustannushyödyt vaikuttavat päätökseen. Erityyppisten yritysten painotukset ovat hyvin samanlaisia. Moskova ja Pietari vastaavat Venäjän alueista parhaiten suomalaisyritysten investoinnin sijainnille asettamia kriteerejä.