Predictors for hospitalization and outpatient visits in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a high resource consumption, with considerable costs for the healthcare system. In a system with sparse resources, treatment is influenced not only by clinical judgement but also by resource consumption. We aimed to determine the resource consumption of IBD patients and to identify its significant predictors. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data from the prospective Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analysed for the resource consumption endpoints hospitalization and outpatient consultations at enrolment [1187 patients; 41.1% ulcerative colitis (UC), 58.9% Crohn's disease (CD)] and at 1-year follow-up (794 patients). Predictors of interest were chosen through an expert panel and a review of the relevant literature. Logistic regressions were used for binary endpoints, and negative binomial regressions and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used for count data. RESULTS For CD, fistula, use of biologics and disease activity were significant predictors for hospitalization days (all P-values <0.001); age, sex, steroid therapy and biologics were significant predictors for the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0368, 0.023, 0.0002, 0.0003, respectively). For UC, biologics, C-reactive protein, smoke quitters, age and sex were significantly predictive for hospitalization days (P=0.0167, 0.0003, 0.0003, 0.0076 and 0.0175 respectively); disease activity and immunosuppressive therapy predicted the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0009 and 0.0017, respectively). The results of multivariate regressions are shown in detail. CONCLUSION Several highly significant clinical predictors for resource consumption in IBD were identified that might be considered in medical decision-making. In terms of resource consumption and its predictors, CD and UC show a different behaviour.

Theoretical models of planetary system formation: mass vs. semi-major axis

Context. Planet formation models have been developed during the past years to try to reproduce what has been observed of both the solar system and the extrasolar planets. Some of these models have partially succeeded, but they focus on massive planets and, for the sake of simplicity, exclude planets belonging to planetary systems. However, more and more planets are now found in planetary systems. This tendency, which is a result of radial velocity, transit, and direct imaging surveys, seems to be even more pronounced for low-mass planets. These new observations require improving planet formation models, including new physics, and considering the formation of systems. Aims: In a recent series of papers, we have presented some improvements in the physics of our models, focussing in particular on the internal structure of forming planets, and on the computation of the excitation state of planetesimals and their resulting accretion rate. In this paper, we focus on the concurrent effect of the formation of more than one planet in the same protoplanetary disc and show the effect, in terms of architecture and composition of this multiplicity. Methods: We used an N-body calculation including collision detection to compute the orbital evolution of a planetary system. Moreover, we describe the effect of competition for accretion of gas and solids, as well as the effect of gravitational interactions between planets. Results: We show that the masses and semi-major axes of planets are modified by both the effect of competition and gravitational interactions. We also present the effect of the assumed number of forming planets in the same system (a free parameter of the model), as well as the effect of the inclination and eccentricity damping. We find that the fraction of ejected planets increases from nearly 0 to 8% as we change the number of embryos we seed the system with from 2 to 20 planetary embryos. Moreover, our calculations show that, when considering planets more massive than ~5 M⊕, simulations with 10 or 20 planetary embryos statistically give the same results in terms of mass function and period distribution.

Cytochrome P450 in mammalian brain: Purification, anatomical distribution and regulation of the cytochrome P450 monooxygenase system in rat brain

The cytochrome P450 (P450) monooxygenase system plays a major role in metabolizing a wide variety of xenobiotic as well as endogenous compounds. In performing this function, it serves to protect the body from foreign substances. However, in a number of cases, P450 activates procarcinogens to cause harm. In most animals, the highest level of activity is found in the liver. Virtually all tissues demonstrate P450 activity, though, and the role of the P450 monooxygenase system in these other organs is not well understood. In this project I have studied the P450 system in rat brain; purifying NADPH-cytochrome P450 reductase (reductase) from that tissue. In addition, I have examined the distribution and regulation of expression of reductase and P450 in various anatomical regions of the rat brain.^ NADPH-cytochrome P450 reductase was purified to apparent homogeneity and cytochrome P450 partially purified from whole rat brain. Purified reductase from brain was identical to liver P450 reductase by SDS-PAGE and Western blot techniques. Kinetic studies utilizing cerebral P450 reductase reveal Km values in close agreement with those determined with enzyme purified from rat liver. Moreover, the brain P450 reductase was able to function successfully in a reconstituted microsomal system with partially purified brain cytochrome P450 and with purified hepatic P4501A1 as measured by 7-ethoxycoumarin and 7-ethoxyresorufin O-deethylation. These results indicate that the reductase and P450 components may interact to form a competent drug metabolism system in brain tissue.^ Since the brain is not a homogeneous organ, dependent upon the well orchestrated interaction of numerous parts, pathology in one nucleus may have a large impact upon its overall function. Hence, the anatomical distribution of the P450 monooxygenase system in brain is important in elucidating its function in that organ. Related to this is the regulation of P450 expression in brain. In order to study these issues female rats--both ovariectomized and not--were treated with a number of xenobiotic compounds and sex steroids. The brains from these animals were dissected into 8 discrete regions and the presence and relative level of message for P4502D and reductase determined using polymerase chain reaction. Results of this study indicate the presence of mRNA for reductase and P4502D isoforms throughout the rat brain. In addition, quantitative PCR has allowed the determination of factors affecting the expression of message for these enzymes. ^

The Territoriality of Fiscal Solidarity: Comparing Swiss Equalisation with European Union Structural Funding

This article theorises the territorial solidarity and fiscal federalism and compares Switzerland with the European Union. While inter-territorial solidarity is a prerequisite for legitimate fiscal equalisation, such equalisation in turn also contributes to the legitimacy of and solidarity within federal political systems. By cutting across territorial and ethno-national communities, fiscal transfers often contribute to both a “civic” sense of belonging and a “cosmopolitan” identity. After placing types and degrees of (inter-)territorial solidarity at the heart of our conceptual perspective, we discuss the effects of such solidarity through an analysis of two different forms of “federal” equalisation. Comparing the recently reformed Swiss fiscal equalisation system with the EU structural funds allows us to infer if, and how, the fiscal dimension of federalism matters for feelings of solidarity, reciprocity, unity and, ultimately, for the legitimacy of the very (nation-state or Union) structures that are to contribute to the ever-growing prosperity and happiness of their people(s). In Switzerland, a civic understanding of nationhood and cross-cutting cleavages were necessary conditions for extensive, effective and legitimate fiscal equalisation. We infer that, for the EU, this means that strengthening the equalisation component of the structural funds would contribute to an ever closer Union in a political sense: because fiscal equalisation and inter-territorial solidarity are interdependent, reinforcing the one also means cementing the other. Future studies of the EU and federal-type arrangements are advised to pay more explicit attention to the solidarity-element of territoriality – or the territoriality of (fiscal) solidarity.

Treatment of aortic stenosis with a self-expanding transcatheter valve: the International Multi-centre ADVANCE Study.

AIM Transcatheter aortic valve implantation has become an alternative to surgery in higher risk patients with symptomatic aortic stenosis. The aim of the ADVANCE study was to evaluate outcomes following implantation of a self-expanding transcatheter aortic valve system in a fully monitored, multi-centre 'real-world' patient population in highly experienced centres. METHODS AND RESULTS Patients with severe aortic stenosis at a higher surgical risk in whom implantation of the CoreValve System was decided by the Heart Team were included. Endpoints were a composite of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE; all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, or reintervention) and mortality at 30 days and 1 year. Endpoint-related events were independently adjudicated based on Valve Academic Research Consortium definitions. A total of 1015 patients [mean logistic EuroSCORE 19.4 ± 12.3% [median (Q1,Q3), 16.0% (10.3, 25.3%)], age 81 ± 6 years] were enrolled. Implantation of the CoreValve System led to a significant improvement in haemodynamics and an increase in the effective aortic valve orifice area. At 30 days, the MACCE rate was 8.0% (95% CI: 6.3-9.7%), all-cause mortality was 4.5% (3.2-5.8%), cardiovascular mortality was 3.4% (2.3-4.6%), and the rate of stroke was 3.0% (2.0-4.1%). The life-threatening or disabling bleeding rate was 4.0% (2.8-6.3%). The 12-month rates of MACCE, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and stroke were 21.2% (18.4-24.1%), 17.9% (15.2-20.5%), 11.7% (9.4-14.1%), and 4.5% (2.9-6.1%), respectively. The 12-month rates of all-cause mortality were 11.1, 16.5, and 23.6% among patients with a logistic EuroSCORE ≤10%, EuroSCORE 10-20%, and EuroSCORE >20% (P< 0.05), respectively. CONCLUSION The ADVANCE study demonstrates the safety and effectiveness of the CoreValve System with low mortality and stroke rates in higher risk real-world patients with severe aortic stenosis.

Development of a diagnostic online tool system for Swiss sport psychology practitioners

Psychological assessment is a central component of applied sport psychology. Despite obvious and well-documented advantages of diagnostic online tools, there is a lack of a system for such tools for sport psychologists so far in Switzerland. Having the most frequently used questionnaires available online in one single tool for all listed Swiss sport psychologists would make the work of practitioners a lot easier and less time consuming. Therefore, the main goal of this project is to develop a diagnostic online tool system with the possibility to make available different questionnaires often used in sport psychology. Furthermore, we intend to survey status and use of this diagnostic online tool system and the questionnaires by Swiss sport psychologists. A specific challenge is to limit the access to qualified sport psychologists and to secure the confidentiality for the client. In particular, approved sport psychologists get an individual code for each of their athletes for the required questionnaire. With the help of this code, athletes can access the test via a secure website at any place of the world. As soon as they complete and submit the online questionnaire, analysed and interpreted data reach the sport psychologist via E-Mail, which is timesaving and easy applicable for the sport psychologist. Furthermore, data are available for interpretation with athletes and documentation of individual development over time is possible. Later on, completed and anonymised questionnaires will be collected and analysed. Bigger number of collected data give more insight in the psychometric properties, thus helping to improve and further develop the questionnaires. In this presentation, we demonstrate the tool and its feasibility using the German version of the Test of Performance Strategies (TOPS, Schmid et al., 2010). To conclude, this diagnostic online tool system offers new possibilities for sport psychologists working as practitioner.

Linking livelihood strategies with a regional level landscape mosaic to explore trade-offs between forest conservation and human wellbeing in a Madagascar biodiversity hotspot

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar contains the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by diverse small-scale agricultural mosaics. There is high deforestation mainly caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice for subsistence. Today, large protected areas restrict land users’ access to forests to collect wood and other forest products. Moreover, they are no more able to expand their cultivated land, which leads to shorter shifting cultivation cycles and decreasing plot sizes for irrigated rice and cash crop cultivation. Cash crop production of clove and vanilla is exposed to risks such as extreme inter-annual price fluctuations, pests and cyclones. In the absence of work opportunities, agricultural extension services and micro-finance schemes people are stuck in a poverty trap. New development strategies are needed to mitigate the trade-offs between forest conservation and human well-being. As landscape composition and livelihood strategies vary across the region, these strategies need to be spatially differentiated to avoid implementing generic solutions, which do not fit the local context. However, up to date, little is known about the spatial patterns of shifting cultivation and other land use systems at the regional level. This is mainly due to the high spatial and temporal dynamics inherent to shifting cultivation, which makes it difficult to monitor the dynamics of this land use system with remote sensing methods. Furthermore, knowledge about land users’ livelihood strategies and the risks and opportunities they face stems from very few local case studies. To overcome this challenge, firstly, we used remote sensing data and a landscape mosaic approach to delineate the main landscape types at the regional level. Secondly, we developed a land user typology based on socio-ecological data from household surveys in 45 villages spread throughout the region. Combining the land user typology with the landscape mosaic map allowed us to reveal spatial patterns of the interaction between landscapes and people and to better understand the trade-offs between forest conservation and local wellbeing. While shifting cultivation systems are being transformed into more intensive permanent agricultural systems in many countries around the globe, Madagascar seems to be an exception to this trend. Linking land cover information to human-environmental interactions over large areas is crucial to designing policies and to inform decision making for a more sustainable development of this resource-rich but poverty-prone context.

Operative Treatment of Acute Fractures of the Tarsal Navicular Body: Midterm Results With a New Classification.

BACKGROUND Treatment of displaced tarsal navicular body fractures usually consists of open reduction and internal fixation. However, there is little literature reporting results of this treatment and correlation to fracture severity. METHODS We report the results of 24 patients treated in our institution over a 12-year period. Primary outcome measurements were Visual-Analogue-Scale Foot and Ankle score (VAS-FA), AOFAS midfoot score, and talonavicular osteoarthritis at final follow-up. According to a new classification system reflecting talonavicular joint damage, 2-part fractures were classified as type I, multifragmentary fractures as type II, and fractures with talonavicular joint dislocation and/or concomitant talar head fractures as type III. Spearman's coefficients tested this classification's correlation with the primary outcome measurements. Mean patient age was 33 (range 16-61) years and mean follow-up duration 73 (range 24-159) months. RESULTS Average VAS-FA score was 74.7 (standard deviation [SD] 16.9), and average AOFAS midfoot score was 83.8 (SD = 12.8). Final radiographs showed no talonavicular arthritis in 5 patients, grade 1 in 7, grade 2 in 3, grade 3 in 6, and grade 4 in 1 patient. Two patients had secondary or spontaneous talonavicular fusion. Spearman coefficients showed strong correlation of the classification system with VAS-FA score (r = -0.663, P < .005) and talonavicular arthritis (r = 0.600, P = .003), and moderate correlation with AOFAS score (r = -.509, P = .011). CONCLUSION At midterm follow-up, open reduction and internal fixation of navicular body fractures led to good clinical outcome but was closely related to fracture severity. A new classification based on the degree of talonavicular joint damage showed close correlation to clinical and radiologic outcome. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Level IV, retrospective case series.

NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

An assessment of the relative influence of a vapor recovery system in reducing occupational exposure to volatile organic compounds in high performance liquid chromatography

Occupational exposures to organic solvents, specifically acetonitrile and methanol, have the potential to cause serious long-term health effects. In the laboratory, these solvents are used extensively in protocols involving the use of high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Operators of HPLC equipment may be potentially exposed to these organic solvents when local exhaust ventilation is not employed properly or is not available, which can be the case in many settings. The objective of this research was to characterize the various sites of vapor release in the HPLC process and then to determine the relative influence of a novel vapor recovery system on the overall exposure to laboratory personnel. The effectiveness of steps to reduce environmental solvent vapor concentrations was assessed by measuring exposure levels of acetonitrile and methanol before and after installation of the vapor recovery system. With respect to acetonitrile, the concentration was not statistically significant with p=0.938; moreover, exposure after the intervention was actually higher than prior to intervention. With respect to methanol, the concentration was not statistically significant with p=0.278. This indicates that the exposure to methanol after the intervention was not statistically significantly higher or lower than prior to intervention. Thus, installation of the vapor recovery device did not result in statistically significant reduction in exposures in the settings encountered, and acetonitrile actually increased significantly.^

Bedform measurements from the San Francisco Bay Coastal System

The morphology of ~45,000 bedforms from 13 multibeam bathymetry surveys was used as a proxy for identifying net bedload sediment transport directions and pathways throughout the San Francisco Bay estuary and adjacent outer coast. The spatially-averaged shape asymmetry of the bedforms reveals distinct pathways of ebb and flood transport. Additionally, the region-wide, ebb-oriented asymmetry of 5% suggests net seaward-directed transport within the estuarine-coastal system, with significant seaward asymmetry at the mouth of San Francisco Bay (11%), through the northern reaches of the Bay (7-8%), and among the largest bedforms (21% for lambda > 50 m). This general indication for the net transport of sand to the open coast strongly suggests that anthropogenic removal of sediment from the estuary, particularly along clearly defined seaward transport pathways, will limit the supply of sand to chronically eroding, open-coast beaches. The bedform asymmetry measurements significantly agree (up to ~ 76%) with modeled annual residual transport directions derived from a hydrodynamically-calibrated numerical model, and the orientation of adjacent, flow-sculpted seafloor features such as mega-flute structures, providing a comprehensive validation of the technique. The methods described in this paper to determine well-defined, cross-validated sediment transport pathways can be applied to estuarine-coastal systems globally where bedforms are present. The results can inform and improve regional sediment management practices to more efficiently utilize often limited sediment resources and mitigate current and future sediment supply-related impacts.

30 years of synoptic observations from Neumayer Station with links to datasets

The analysis of research data plays a key role in data-driven areas of science. Varieties of mixed research data sets exist and scientists aim to derive or validate hypotheses to find undiscovered knowledge. Many analysis techniques identify relations of an entire dataset only. This may level the characteristic behavior of different subgroups in the data. Like automatic subspace clustering, we aim at identifying interesting subgroups and attribute sets. We present a visual-interactive system that supports scientists to explore interesting relations between aggregated bins of multivariate attributes in mixed data sets. The abstraction of data to bins enables the application of statistical dependency tests as the measure of interestingness. An overview matrix view shows all attributes, ranked with respect to the interestingness of bins. Complementary, a node-link view reveals multivariate bin relations by positioning dependent bins close to each other. The system supports information drill-down based on both expert knowledge and algorithmic support. Finally, visual-interactive subset clustering assigns multivariate bin relations to groups. A list-based cluster result representation enables the scientist to communicate multivariate findings at a glance. We demonstrate the applicability of the system with two case studies from the earth observation domain and the prostate cancer research domain. In both cases, the system enabled us to identify the most interesting multivariate bin relations, to validate already published results, and, moreover, to discover unexpected relations.

(Table 2) Comparison of annual mass fluxes measured with shallower and deeper sediment traps off Cape Blanc (CB)

The ocean off NW Africa is the second most important coastal upwelling system with a total annual primary production of 0.33 Gt of carbon per year (Carr in Deep Sea Res II 49:59-80, 2002). Deep ocean organic carbon fluxes measured by sediment traps are also fairly high despite low biogenic opal fluxes. Due to a low supply of dissolved silicate from subsurface waters, the ocean off NW Africa is characterized by predominantly carbonate-secreting primary producers, i.e. coccolithophorids. These algae which are key primary producers since millions of years are found in organic- and chlorophyll-rich zooplankton fecal pellets, which sink rapidly through the water column within a few days. Particle flux studies in the Mauretanian upwelling area (Cape Blanc) confirm the hypothesis of Armstrong et al. (Deep Sea Res II 49:219-236, 2002) who proposed that ballast availability, e.g. of carbonate particles, is essential to predict deep ocean organic carbon fluxes. The role of dust as ballast mineral for organic carbon, however, must be also taken into consideration in the coastal settings off NW Africa. There, high settling rates of larger particles approach 400 m day**-1, which may be due to a particular composition of mineral ballast. An assessment of particle settling rates from opal-production systems in the Southern Ocean of the Atlantic Sector, in contrast, provides lower values, consistent with the assumptions of Francois et al. (Global Biogeochem Cycles 16(4):1087, 2002). Satellite chlorophyll distributions, particle distributions and fluxes in the water column off NW Africa as well as modelling studies suggest a significant lateral flux component and export of particles from coastal shelf waters into the open ocean. These transport processes have implications for paleo-reconstructions from sediment cores retrieved at continental margin settings.

Study of the Influence of Reference System in Surface Finishing Parameters Evaluation.

In the present paper the influence of the reference system with regard to the characterization of the surface finishing is analyzed. The effect of the reference system’s choice on the most representative surface finishing parameters (e.g. roughness average Ra and root mean square values Rq) is studied. The study can also be applied to their equivalent parameters in waviness and primary profiles. Based on ISO and ASME standards, three different types of regression lines (central, mean and orthogonal) are theoretically and experimentally analyzed, identifying the validity and applicability fields of each one depending on profile’s geometry. El presente trabajo realiza un estudio de la influencia que supone la elección del sistema de referencia en la determinación los valores de los parámetros más relevantes empleados en la caracterización del acabado superficial tales como la rugosidad media aritmética Ra o la rugosidad media cuadrática Rq y sus equivalentes en los perfiles de ondulación y completo. Partiendo de la definición establecida por las normas ISO y ASME, se analizan tres tipos de líneas de regresión cuadrática (línea central, línea media y línea ortogonal), delimitando los campos de validez y de aplicación de cada una de ellas en función de la geometría del perfil. Para ello se plantean diversos tipos de perfiles y se desarrolla un estudio teórico y experimental de los mismos.

Evaluation of a User-Adapted Spoken Language Dialogue System: Measuring the Relevance of the Contextual Information Sources

We present an evaluation of a spoken language dialogue system with a module for the management of userrelated information, stored as user preferences and privileges. The flexibility of our dialogue management approach, based on Bayesian Networks (BN), together with a contextual information module, which performs different strategies for handling such information, allows us to include user information as a new level into the Context Manager hierarchy. We propose a set of objective and subjective metrics to measure the relevance of the different contextual information sources. The analysis of our evaluation scenarios shows that the relevance of the short-term information (i.e. the system status) remains pretty stable throughout the dialogue, whereas the dialogue history and the user profile (i.e. the middle-term and the long-term information, respectively) play a complementary role, evolving their usefulness as the dialogue evolves.