El Niño influence on potential maize yield in Iberian Peninsula

El Niño phenomenon is the leading mode of sea surface temperature interannual variability. It can affect weather patterns worldwide and therefore crop production. Crop models are useful tools for impact and predictability applications, allowing to obtain long time series of potential and attainable crop yield, unlike to available time series of observed crop yield for many countries. Using this tool, crop yield variability in a location of Iberia Peninsula (IP) has been previously studied, finding predictability from Pacific El Niño conditions. Nevertheless, the work has not been done for an extended area. The present work carries out an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The potential usefulness of this study is to apply the relationships found to improving crop forecasting in IP.

(Table A1) Uranium and Thorium determination from IODP Site 310-M0007B

The Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 310 recovered drill cores from the drowned reefs around the island of Tahiti (17°40'S, 149°30'W), many of which contained samples of massive corals from the genus Porites. Herein we report on one well-preserved fossil coral sample: a 13.6 cm long Porites sp. dated by uranium series techniques at 9523 ± 33 years. Monthly delta18O and Sr/Ca determinations reveal nine clear and robust annual cycles. Coral delta18O and Sr/Ca determinations estimate a mean temperature of ca. 24.3°C (ca. 3.2°C colder than modern) for Tahiti at 9.5 ka; however, this estimate is viewed with caution since potential sources of cold bias in coral geochemistry remain to be resolved. The interannual variability in coral delta18O is similar between the 9.5 ka coral record and a modern record from nearby Moorea. The seasonal cycle in coral Sr/Ca is approximately the same or greater in the 9.5 ka coral record than in modern coral records from Tahiti. Paired analysis of coral delta18O and Sr/Ca indicates cold/wet (warm/dry) interannual anomalies, opposite from those observed in the modern instrumental record.

Data compilation of ESOP

The work in this sub-project of ESOP focuses on the advective and convective transforma-tion of water masses in the Greenland Sea and its neighbouring areas. It includes observational work on the sub-mesoscale and analysis of hydrographic data up to the gyre-scale. Observations of active convective plumes were made with a towed chain equipped with up to 80 CTD sensors, giving a horizontal and vertical resolution of the hydrographic fields of a few metres. The observed scales of the penetrative convective plumes compare well with those given by theory. On the mesoscale the structure of homogeneous eddies formed as a result of deep convection was observed and the associated mixing and renewal of the intermediate layers quantified. The relative importance and efficiency of thermal and haline penetrative convection in relation to the surface boundary conditions (heat and salt fluxes and ice cover) and the ambient stratification are studied using the multi year time series of hydro-graphic data in the central Greenland Sea. The modification of the water column of the Greenland Sea gyre through advection from and mixing with water at its rim is assessed on longer time scales. The relative contributions are quantified using modern water mass analysis methods based on inverse techniques. Likewise the convective renewal and the spreading of the Arctic Intermediate Water from its formation area is quantified. The aim is to budget the heat and salt content of the water column, in particular of the low salinity surface layer, and to relate its seasonal and interannual variability to the lateral fluxes and the fluxes at the air-sea-ice interface. This will allow to estimate residence times for the different layers of the Greenland Sea gyre, a quantity important for the description of the Polar Ocean carbon cycle.