Self-defeating austerity? Assessing the impact of fiscal consolidations on unemployment

The great recession of 2008/2009 has had a huge impact on unemployment and public finances in most advanced countries, and these impacts were magnified in the southern Euro area countries by the sovereign debt crisis of 2010/2011. The fiscal consolidation imposed by the European Union on highly indebted countries was based on the assumptions of the so-called expansionary austerity. However, the reality so far shows proof to the contrary, and the results of this paper support the opposing view of a self- defeating austerity. Based on the input-output relations of the productive system, an unemployment rate/budget balance trade-off equation is derived, as well as the impact of a strong fiscal consolidation based on social transfers and the notion of neutral budget balance. An application to the Portuguese case confirms the huge costs of a strong fiscal consolidation, both in terms of unemployment and social policy regress, and it allows one to conclude that too much consolidation in one year makes consolidation more difficult in the following year.

Climate change and irrigation water requirement at Jaguaribe river basin, semi-arid northeast of Brazil.

Summary: Climate change has a potential to impact rainfall, temperature and air humidity, which have relation to plant evapotranspiration and crop water requirement. The purpose of this research is to assess climate change impacts on irrigation water demand, based on future scenarios derived from the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), using boundary conditions of the HadCM3 submitted to a dynamic downscaling nested to the Hadley Centre regional circulation model HadRM3P. Monthly time series for average temperature and rainfall were generated for 1961-90 (baseline) and the future (2040). The reference evapotranspiration was estimated using monthly average temperature. Projected climate change impact on irrigation water demand demonstrated to be a result of evapotranspiration and rainfall trend. Impacts were mapped over the target region by using geostatistical methods. An increase of the average crop water needs was estimated to be 18.7% and 22.2% higher for 2040 A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Objective ? To analyze the climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements, using downscaling techniques of a climate change model, at the river basin scale. Method: The study area was delimited between 4º39?30? and 5º40?00? South and 37º35?30? and 38º27?00? West. The crop pattern in the target area was characterized, regarding type of irrigated crops, respective areas and cropping schedules, as well as the area and type of irrigation systems adopted. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) system (Jones et al., 2004) was used for generating climate predictions for the target area, using the boundary conditions of the Hadley Centre model HadCM3 (Johns et al., 2003). The considered time scale of interest for climate change impacts evaluation was the year of 2040, representing the period of 2025 to 2055. The output data from the climate model was interpolated, considering latitude/longitude, by applying ordinary kriging tools available at a Geographic Information System, in order to produce thematic maps.

Undermined climate policies : a study on the impact of regulatory and financial discrimination across heterogeneous firms in China

Firms in China within the same industry but with different ownership and size have very different production functions and can face very different emission regulations and financial conditions. This fact has largely been ignored in most of the existing literature on climate change. Using a newly augmented Chinese input–output table in which information about firm size and ownership are explicitly reported, this paper employs a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the impact of alternative climate policy designs with respect to regulation and financial conditions on heterogeneous firms. The simulation results indicate that with a business-as-usual regulatory structure, the effectiveness and economic efficiency of climate policies is significantly undermined. Expanding regulation to cover additional firms has a first-order effect of improving efficiency. However, over-investment in energy technologies in certain firms may decrease the overall efficiency of investments and dampen long-term economic growth by competing with other fixed-capital investments for financial resources. Therefore, a market-oriented arrangement for sharing emission reduction burden and a mechanism for allocating green investment is crucial for China to achieve a more ambitious emission target in the long run.

Productivity growth and the structure of production

In this study, interactions between potential hierarchical value chains existing in the production structure and industry-wise productivity growths are sought. We applied generalized Chenery-Watanabe heuristics for matrix linearity maximization to triangulate the input-output incidence matrix for both Japan and the Republic of Korea, finding the potential directed flow of values spanning the industrial sectors of the basic (disaggregated) industry classifications for both countries. Sector specific productivity growths were measured by way of the Trönquvist index, using the 2000-2005 linked input-output tables for both Japan and Korea.

Modelo de gestión del conocimiento para el impacto económico. Aplicación al sector defensa

En el escenario actual macro económico la toma de decisiones en materia económica de cualquier entidad pública debe de estar sustentada por una adecuada inteligencia económica. Es prioritario disponer de modelos, procesos, técnicas y herramientas que permitan garantizar un control adecuado de todas sus inversiones. En la presente tesis exponemos un modelo de gestión del conocimiento basado en el marco Input-Output (IO), que nos permite conocer el impacto económico de los programas públicos. Este modelo está soportado por un sistema de información que coadyuvará a los analistas económicos para la toma de decisiones en el campo de las inversiones públicas. El principal objetivo de la tesis es la creación y desarrollo de este modelo denominado MOCIE (Modelo del Conocimiento para el Impacto Económico). No obstante, en la tesis además de profundizar sobre este modelo y la gestión del conocimiento en materia económica de los grandes programas públicos, se ha realizado un estudio que ha abarcado diferentes líneas de investigación complementarias como el análisis IO, la ingeniería y la arquitectura de sistemas de la información, la economía de la Defensa o la computación genética. El modelo propuesto en esta tesis se ha puesto en práctica en un sector económico muy específico dentro de la economía nacional: el sector de la defensa. Por tanto, ha sido también necesario realizar un estudio en profundidad del propio sector y de la gestión de los programas públicos en el ámbito de la Defensa. MOCIE se estructura a través de tres capas de gestión del conocimiento que nos permiten, por un lado, la percepción de los componentes existentes en el entorno de las inversiones públicas y la comprensión de su significado en términos de impacto económico y su relación con el resto de variables macroeconómicas nacionales y, por otro, la proyección y monitorización de su estado a lo largo de todo el ciclo de vida de los programas públicos...

Thermally induced all-optical inverter and dynamic hysteresis loops in graphene oxide dispersions

We experimentally study the temporal dynamics of amplitude-modulated laser beams propagating through a water dispersion of graphene oxide sheets in a fiber-to-fiber U-bench. Nonlinear refraction induced in the sample by thermal effects leads to both phase reversing of the transmitted signals and dynamic hysteresis in the input- output power curves. A theoretical model including beam propagation and thermal lensing dynamics reproduces the experimental findings. © 2015 Optical Society of America.

La articulación productiva como elemento clave para el desarrollo económico: la experiencia de España, Corea del Sur y México frente al proceso de internacionalización de la producción, 1980-2000

La articulación productiva, como una característica esencial de la estructura económica, es un tema poco analizado por la teoría económica. Por lo tanto, esta tesis pretende incorporarla en el análisis económico de manera explícita, para estudiar los efectos que tienen sobre las características de las estructuras económicas la actual forma de organización de la producción y el comercio a nivel mundial. La investigación analiza las repercusiones de la producción fragmentada sobre las características de las estructuras económicas y los posibles efectos para el desarrollo económico. Se estudian tres países – Corea del Sur, España y México –, caracterizados por una fuerte integración internacional. Con el fin de evaluar el desempeño económico bajo modelos de desarrollo disímiles, se comparan el año de 1980 con al primer decenio del 2000, con el empleo de tablas input-output (TIO)...

Bienes de capital, flujos tecnológicos y cambio estructural: los casos de Estados Unidos, Japón y Alemania, 1980-2005

La innovación tecnológica se encuentra estrechamente vinculada con el desenvolvimiento de la estructura productiva. Durante mucho tiempo, esta relación era muy evidente, ya que la tecnología como fuente impulsora del crecimiento se asociaba a la inversión en maquinaria y equipo. Ésta última, integraba el componente de innovación que generaba el incremento en productividad. El modelo neoclásico ortodoxo centro el estudio del crecimiento económico en el estudio de Solow (1957), quien explica que la fuente del crecimiento se encuentra en un factor exógeno, que identifica como cambio tecnológico y, de esta manera, resta importancia a la inversión como un determinante del incremento en el producto. En consecuencia, los aportes teóricos recientes, particularmente el neoclásico, centran su atención en los factores que inciden en la generación y desarrollo de innovaciones, pero dejan de lado la vinculación con la estructura económica. En este trabajo se analiza la importancia de los bienes de capital en Alemania, Japón y Estados Unidos, empleando tablas input-output, durante 1980 y 2005, definiendo la vinculación entre cambio tecnológico y la estructura productiva. 1. Síntesis El objetivo es demostrar que la industria de bienes de capital vincula la dinámica tecnológica y los procesos de innovación con el desenvolvimiento de la estructura productiva, por ser clave en el desarrollo económico como fuerza motriz del sistema al generar cambio tecnológico, transferir innovaciones y articular el cambio tecnológico con la estructura productiva. De la Tesis se extraen los siguientes resultados: a) Desde una visión teórica Nathan Rosenberg justifica la importancia de los bienes de capital, por su capacidad de generar cambio tecnológico incorporado, así como por su carácter articulador con otros sectores productivos, favoreciendo el proceso de desarrollo económico. Por el lado metodológico, el análisis input-output resulta ser el más idóneo para el propósito de la investigación. b) La importancia del cambio tecnológico Mediante el estudio de patentes, se demostró que la dinámica de innovación del sector está relacionada con los flujos de conocimiento, al crear y difundir innovaciones, y por su habilidad de asimilar los avances generados en otros sectores. Con el empleo del “Análisis de Flujo Mínimo”, se determina que los bienes de capital juegan un papel destacado por sus efectos de propagación del esfuerzo innovador; asimismo, por ser generadores de innovaciones, su inversión en I+D se traduce en una alta capacidad para impactar a los sectores con los que se vincula...

Participation of portuguese manufacturing industry in global value chains

Portugal’s manufacturing sector has a significant importance both in national income and employment. As has been pointed out by several researchers, the traditional methods of analysis fail to grasp all the dimensions of economic competitiveness. This dissertation is then, at its core, an analysis of Portugal’s manufacturing industry in terms of the latter’s value added to production and impact to employment under the framework of global value chains. The current dissertation seeks to study in which way the Portuguese manufacturing industry, and its respective sectors, has a direct and indirect impact on the creation of value added and employment and how this impact can be measured. For development of this work the input-output approach for calculation of multipliers and the new framework proposed by Timmer et al. (2013) for calculation of GVC income and GVC jobs indicators were used, elaborated on the basis of the WIOD project dataset. Moreover, to illustrate the application of the provided methodology the Portuguese textile industry was used as an example. It was found that the changes in final demand of such sectors as Pulp, Paper, Printing and Publishing; Machinery, Nec and Textiles and Textile Products would have a larger impact on generated value added than other manufacturing sectors. At the same time, employment created by the changes in final demand would be more impacted by such sectors as Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Wood and Products of Wood and Cork and Textiles and Textile Products. In this regard, the number of low-skilled workers in Portugal seems to be more effected by changes in final demand, than those occupied by higher -skilled individuals. Moreover, it was found that the distribution of GVC income and GVC jobs for the Portuguese manufacturing industry shares a similar outlook. However, upon closer inspection of GVC labour distribution by skill levels there seems to exist a general progression in which low-skilled jobs requirements are met by local resources, while the need for higher skilled jobs require a greater “off-shoring” of work The results obtained through calculations of presented multipliers provide a powerful tool for policy makers in strategic planning of development of national economy. Using the provided methodology and obtained results, a government and supranational organizations could define which industry would have the greatest impact for an additional unit of output generated through the economy, and thus define the sectors for further investments.

Acerca da importância do primeiro quadrante da MIO-Alentejo

Chama-se a atenção para a importância fundamental (e sua possível utilização, em termos de políticas públicas de base regional) do primeiro quadrante da matriz input-output para a região Alentejo.

“Análise da Eficiência, Eficácia e Mortalidade Empresarial”

Este artigo analisa a eficácia e a eficiência do Programa Leader + e a mortalidade das empresas que beneficiaram de apoio financeiro no âmbito desta política pública, nas regiões Norte e Alentejo, no período de 2000 a 2006. A análise da eficácia e da eficiência incide sobre a totalidade dos projetos de investimento financiados e o estudo da mortalidade empresarial inclui apenas as empresas do sector privado, com atividade e/ou sede nas regiões citadas, que beneficiaram de financiamento. A avaliação da eficácia e da eficiência sustentou-se em indicadores de realização, indicadores de resultado e no rácio input-output. A sustentabilidade da política pública foi avaliada com base nas taxa de mortalidade das empresas e no estudo da relação entre a mortalidade empresarial e as variáveis região de pertença, atividade da empresa e número de sócios. O estudo permitiu encontrar diferenças entre as duas regiões ao nível da eficácia e da eficiência da política pública, bem como ao nível da mortalidade empresarial.

Input usage, output mix and industry deregulation: an analysis of the Australian dairy manufacturing industry

In this paper we estimate a Translog output distance function for a balanced panel of state level data for the Australian dairy processing sector. We estimate a fixed effects specification employing Bayesian methods, with and without the imposition of monotonicity and curvature restrictions. Our results indicate that Tasmania and Victoria are the most technically efficient states with New South Wales being the least efficient. The imposition of theoretical restrictions marginally affects the results especially with respect to estimates of technical change and industry deregulation. Importantly, our bias estimates show changes in both input use and output mix that result from deregulation. Specifically, we find that deregulation has positively biased the production of butter, cheese and powders.

An extensible automated protein annotation tool: standardizing input and output using validated XML

Motivation: There is a frequent need to apply a large range of local or remote prediction and annotation tools to one or more sequences. We have created a tool able to dispatch one or more sequences to assorted services by defining a consistent XML format for data and annotations. Results: By analyzing annotation tools, we have determined that annotations can be described using one or more of the six forms of data: numeric or textual annotation of residues, domains (residue ranges) or whole sequences. With this in mind, XML DTDs have been designed to store the input and output of any server. Plug-in wrappers to a number of services have been written which are called from a master script. The resulting APATML is then formatted for display in HTML. Alternatively further tools may be written to perform post-analysis.

Input and output modality effects in immediate serial recall

In immediate recall tasks, visual recency is substantially enhanced when output interference is low (Cowan, Saults, Elliott, & Moreno, 2002; Craik, 1969) whereas auditory recency remains high even under conditions of high output interference. Ibis auditory advantage has been interpreted in terms of auditory resistance to output interference (e.g., Neath & Surprenant, 2003). In this study the auditory-visual difference at low output interference re-emerged when ceiling effects were accounted for, but only with spoken output. With written responding the auditory advantage remained significantly larger with high than with low output interference. These new data suggest that both superior auditory encoding and modality-specific output interference contribute to the classic auditory-visual modality effect.