The role of serviced offices in the corporate real estate supply chain

The paper analyses the evolving corporate real estate supply chain and the interaction of this evolution with emerging business models in the serviced office sector. An enhanced model of the corporate real estate portfolio is first presented incorporating vacant, alienated and transitory space. It is argued that the serviced office sector has evolved in response to an increasingly diverse corporate real estate portfolio. For the peripheral corporate real estate portfolio, the core serviced workspace product provides the ability to rapidly acquire high-quality workspace and associated support services on very flexible bases. Whilst it is arguably a beta product, the core workspace offer is now being augmented by managed office or back-to-back leases which enables clients to complement the advantages of serviced offices with a wider choice of premises. Joint venture business models are aligned with solutions to problems of vacant space.

Forecasting models of retail rents

The authors model retail rents in the United Kingdom with use of vector-autoregressive and time-series models. Two retail rent series are used, compiled by LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker, and the emphasis is on forecasting. The results suggest that the use of the vector-autoregression and time-series models in this paper can pick up important features of the data that are useful for forecasting purposes. The relative forecasting performance of the models appears to be subject to the length of the forecast time-horizon. The results also show that the variables which were appropriate for inclusion in the vector-autoregression systems differ between the two rent series, suggesting that the structure of optimal models for predicting retail rents could be specific to the rent index used. Ex ante forecasts from our time-series suggest that both LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker real retail rents will exhibit an annual growth rate above their long-term mean.

Intercomparison of simulated global vegetation distribution in response to 6 kyr BP orbital forcing

The response of ten atmospheric general circulation models to orbital forcing at 6 kyr BP has been investigated using the BIOME model, which predicts equilibrium vegetation distribution, as a diagnostic. Several common features emerge: (a) reduced tropical rain forest as a consequence of increased aridity in the equatorial zone, (b) expansion of moisture-demanding vegetation in the Old World subtropics as a consequence of the expansion of the Afro–Asian monsoon, (c) an increase in warm grass/shrub in the Northern Hemisphere continental interiors in response to warming and enhanced aridity, and (d) a northward shift in the tundra–forest boundary in response to a warmer growing season at high northern latitudes. These broadscale features are consistent from model to model, but there are differences in their expression at a regional scale. Vegetation changes associated with monsoon enhancement and high-latitude summer warming are consistent with palaeoenvironmental observations, but the simulated shifts in vegetation belts are too small in both cases. Vegetation changes due to warmer and more arid conditions in the midcontinents of the Northern Hemisphere are consistent with palaeoenvironmental data from North America, but data from Eurasia suggests conditions were wetter at 6 kyr BP than today. The models show quantitatively similar vegetation changes in the intertropical zone, and in the northern and southern extratropics. The small differences among models in the magnitude of the global vegetation response are not related to differences in global or zonal climate averages, but reflect differences in simulated regional features. Regional-scale analyses will therefore be necessary to identify the underlying causes of such differences among models.

Association between Mediterranean and Nordic diet scores and changes in weight and waist circumference: influence of FTO and TCF7L2 loci

BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown that adherence to the Mediterranean Diet measured by using the Mediterranean diet score (MDS) is associated with lower obesity risk. The newly proposed Nordic Diet could hold similar beneficial effects. Because of the increasing focus on the interaction between diet and genetic predisposition to adiposity, studies should consider both diet and genetics. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether FTO rs9939609 and TCF7L2 rs7903146 modified the association between the MDS and Nordic diet score (NDS) and changes in weight (Δweight), waist circumference (ΔWC), and waist circumference adjusted for body mass index (BMI) (ΔWCBMI). DESIGN: We conducted a case-cohort study with a median follow-up of 6.8 y that included 11,048 participants from 5 European countries; 5552 of these subjects were cases defined as individuals with the greatest degree of unexplained weight gain during follow-up. A randomly selected subcohort included 6548 participants, including 5496 noncases. Cases and noncases were compared in analyses by using logistic regression. Continuous traits (ie, Δweight, ΔWC, and ΔWCBMI) were analyzed by using linear regression models in the random subcohort. Interactions were tested by including interaction terms in models. RESULTS: A higher MDS was significantly inversely associated with case status (OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.00), ΔWC (β = -0.010 cm/y; 95% CI: -0.020, -0.001 cm/y), and ΔWCBMI (β = -0.008; 95% CI:-0.015, -0.001) per 1-point increment but not Δweight (P = 0.53). The NDS was not significantly associated with any outcome. There was a borderline significant interaction between the MDS and TCF7L2 rs7903146 on weight gain (P = 0.05), which suggested a beneficial effect of the MDS only in subjects who carried 1 or 2 risk alleles. FTO did not modify observed associations. CONCLUSIONS: A high MDS is associated with a lower ΔWC and ΔWCBMI, regardless of FTO and TCF7L2 risk alleles. For Δweight, findings were less clear, but the effect may depend on the TCF7L2 rs7903146 variant. The NDS was not associated with anthropometric changes during follow-up.

Intercomparison of shortwave radiative transfer schemes in global aerosol modeling: results from the AeroCom Radiative Transfer Experiment

In this study we examine the performance of 31 global model radiative transfer schemes in cloud-free conditions with prescribed gaseous absorbers and no aerosols (Rayleigh atmosphere), with prescribed scattering-only aerosols, and with more absorbing aerosols. Results are compared to benchmark results from high-resolution, multi-angular line-by-line radiation models. For purely scattering aerosols, model bias relative to the line-by-line models in the top-of-the atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing ranges from roughly −10 to 20%, with over- and underestimates of radiative cooling at lower and higher solar zenith angle, respectively. Inter-model diversity (relative standard deviation) increases from ~10 to 15% as solar zenith angle decreases. Inter-model diversity in atmospheric and surface forcing decreases with increased aerosol absorption, indicating that the treatment of multiple-scattering is more variable than aerosol absorption in the models considered. Aerosol radiative forcing results from multi-stream models are generally in better agreement with the line-by-line results than the simpler two-stream schemes. Considering radiative fluxes, model performance is generally the same or slightly better than results from previous radiation scheme intercomparisons. However, the inter-model diversity in aerosol radiative forcing remains large, primarily as a result of the treatment of multiple-scattering. Results indicate that global models that estimate aerosol radiative forcing with two-stream radiation schemes may be subject to persistent biases introduced by these schemes, particularly for regional aerosol forcing.

Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface

There is a strong drive towards hyperresolution earth system models in order to resolve finer scales of motion in the atmosphere. The problem of obtaining more realistic representation of terrestrial fluxes of heat and water, however, is not just a problem of moving to hyperresolution grid scales. It is much more a question of a lack of knowledge about the parameterisation of processes at whatever grid scale is being used for a wider modelling problem. Hyperresolution grid scales cannot alone solve the problem of this hyperresolution ignorance. This paper discusses these issues in more detail with specific reference to land surface parameterisations and flood inundation models. The importance of making local hyperresolution model predictions available for evaluation by local stakeholders is stressed. It is expected that this will be a major driving force for improving model performance in the future. Keith BEVEN, Hannah CLOKE, Florian PAPPENBERGER, Rob LAMB, Neil HUNTER

Intercomparison of general circulation models for hot extrasolar planets

We compare five general circulation models (GCMs) which have been recently used to study hot extrasolar planet atmospheres (BOB, CAM, IGCM, MITgcm, and PEQMOD), under three test cases useful for assessing model convergence and accuracy. Such a broad, detailed intercomparison has not been performed thus far for extrasolar planets study. The models considered all solve the traditional primitive equations, but employ di↵erent numerical algorithms or grids (e.g., pseudospectral and finite volume, with the latter separately in longitude-latitude and ‘cubed-sphere’ grids). The test cases are chosen to cleanly address specific aspects of the behaviors typically reported in hot extrasolar planet simulations: 1) steady-state, 2) nonlinearly evolving baroclinic wave, and 3) response to fast timescale thermal relaxation. When initialized with a steady jet, all models maintain the steadiness, as they should—except MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid. A very good agreement is obtained for a baroclinic wave evolving from an initial instability in pseudospectral models (only). However, exact numerical convergence is still not achieved across the pseudospectral models: amplitudes and phases are observably di↵erent. When subject to a typical ‘hot-Jupiter’-like forcing, all five models show quantitatively di↵erent behavior—although qualitatively similar, time-variable, quadrupole-dominated flows are produced. Hence, as have been advocated in several past studies, specific quantitative predictions (such as the location of large vortices and hot regions) by GCMs should be viewed with caution. Overall, in the tests considered here, pseudospectral models in pressure coordinate (PEBOB and PEQMOD) perform the best and MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid performs the worst.

Intercomparison and evaluation of global aerosol microphysical properties among AeroCom models of a range of complexity

Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by 12 global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the multi-model-mean data set simulates the global variation of the particle size distribution with a good degree of skill, suggesting that most of the individual global aerosol microphysics models are performing well, although the large model diversity indicates that some models are in poor agreement with the observations. Further work is required to better constrain size-resolved primary and secondary particle number sources, and an improved understanding of nucleation and growth (e.g. the role of nitrate and secondary organics) will improve the fidelity of simulated particle size distributions.

An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the skill of these models not only with each other but also with empirical models can reveal the space and time scales on which simulation models exploit their physical basis effectively and quantify their ability to add information to operational forecasts. The skill of decadal probabilistic hindcasts for annual global-mean and regional-mean temperatures from the EU Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project is contrasted with several empirical models. Both the ENSEMBLES models and a “dynamic climatology” empirical model show probabilistic skill above that of a static climatology for global-mean temperature. The dynamic climatology model, however, often outperforms the ENSEMBLES models. The fact that empirical models display skill similar to that of today's state-of-the-art simulation models suggests that empirical forecasts can improve decadal forecasts for climate services, just as in weather, medium-range, and seasonal forecasting. It is suggested that the direct comparison of simulation models with empirical models becomes a regular component of large model forecast evaluations. Doing so would clarify the extent to which state-of-the-art simulation models provide information beyond that available from simpler empirical models and clarify current limitations in using simulation forecasting for decision support. Ultimately, the skill of simulation models based on physical principles is expected to surpass that of empirical models in a changing climate; their direct comparison provides information on progress toward that goal, which is not available in model–model intercomparisons.

Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts

Simulation models are widely employed to make probability forecasts of future conditions on seasonal to annual lead times. Added value in such forecasts is reflected in the information they add, either to purely empirical statistical models or to simpler simulation models. An evaluation of seasonal probability forecasts from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction (DEMETER) and ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble experiments is presented. Two particular regions are considered: Nino3.4 in the Pacific and the Main Development Region in the Atlantic; these regions were chosen before any spatial distribution of skill was examined. The ENSEMBLES models are found to have skill against the climatological distribution on seasonal time-scales. For models in ENSEMBLES that have a clearly defined predecessor model in DEMETER, the improvement from DEMETER to ENSEMBLES is discussed. Due to the long lead times of the forecasts and the evolution of observation technology, the forecast-outcome archive for seasonal forecast evaluation is small; arguably, evaluation data for seasonal forecasting will always be precious. Issues of information contamination from in-sample evaluation are discussed and impacts (both positive and negative) of variations in cross-validation protocol are demonstrated. Other difficulties due to the small forecast-outcome archive are identified. The claim that the multi-model ensemble provides a ‘better’ probability forecast than the best single model is examined and challenged. Significant forecast information beyond the climatological distribution is also demonstrated in a persistence probability forecast. The ENSEMBLES probability forecasts add significantly more information to empirical probability forecasts on seasonal time-scales than on decadal scales. Current operational forecasts might be enhanced by melding information from both simulation models and empirical models. Simulation models based on physical principles are sometimes expected, in principle, to outperform empirical models; direct comparison of their forecast skill provides information on progress toward that goal.

A SNP-based consensus genetic map for synteny-based trait targeting in faba bean (Vicia faba L.)

Faba bean (Vicia faba L.) is a globally important nitrogen-fixing legume, which is widely grown in a diverse range of environments. In this work, we mine and validate a set of 845 SNPs from the aligned transcriptomes of two contrasting inbred lines. Each V. faba SNP is assigned by BLAST analysis to a single Medicago orthologue. This set of syntenically anchored polymorphisms were then validated as individual KASP assays, classified according to their informativeness and performance on a panel of 37 inbred lines, and the best performing 757 markers used to genotype six mapping populations. The six resulting linkage maps were merged into a single consensus map on which 687 SNPs were placed on six linkage groups, each presumed to correspond to one of the six V. faba chromosomes. This sequence-based consensus map was used to explore synteny with the most closely-related crop species, lentil, and the most closely related fully sequenced genome, Medicago. Large tracts of uninterrupted colinearity were found between faba bean and Medicago, making it relatively straightforward to predict gene content and order in mapped genetic interval. As a demonstration of this, we mapped a flower colour gene to a 2 cM interval of Vf chromosome 2 which was highly collinear with Mt3. The obvious candidate gene from 77 gene models in the collinear Medicago chromosome segment was the previously characterized MtWD40-1 gene (Mt3g092830, Mt3g092840) controlling anthocyanin production in Medicago and re-sequencing of the Vf orthologue showed a putative causative deletion of the entire 5’ end of the gene.

Nuclear Factor-kappaB controls the reaggregation of 3D neurosphere cultures in vitro

The approach of reaggregation involves the regeneration and self-renewal of histotypical 3D spheres from isolated tissue kept in suspension culture. Reaggregated spheres can be used as tumour, genetic, biohybrid and neurosphere models. In addition the functional superiority of 3D aggregates over conventional 2D cultures developed the use of neurospheres for brain engineering of CNS diseases. Thus 3D aggregate cultures created enormous interest in mechanisms that regulate the formation of multicellular aggregates in vitro. Here we analyzed mechanisms guiding the development of 3D neurosphere cultures. Adult neural stem cells can be cultured as self-adherent clusters, called neurospheres. Neurospheres are characterised as heterogeneous clusters containing unequal stem cell sub-types. Tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha is one of the crucial inflammatory cytokines with multiple actions on several cell types. TNF-alpha strongly activates the canonical Nuclear Factor Kappa-B (NF- kappaB) pathway. In order to investigate further functions of TNF in neural stem cells (NSCs) we tested the hypothesis that TNF is able to modulate the motility and/or migratory behaviour of SVZ derived adult neural stem cells. We observed a significantly faster sphere formation in TNF treated cultures than in untreated controls. The very fast aggregation of isolated NSCs (<2h) is a commonly observed phenomenon, though the mechanisms of 3D neurosphere formation remain largely unclear. Here we demonstrate for the first time, increased aggregation and enhanced motility of isolated NSCs in response to the TNF-stimulus. Moreover, this phenomenon is largely dependent on activated transcription factor NF-kappaB. Both, the pharmacological blockade of NF-kappaB pathway by pyrrolidine dithiocarbamate (PDTC) or Bay11-7082 and genetic blockade by expression of a transdominant-negative super-repressor IkappaB-AA1 led to decreased aggregation.

Tannin containing legumes as a model for nutraceuticals against digestive parasites in livestock

Parasitic infections with gastrointestinal nematodes (GINs) still represent a worldwide major pathological threat associated with the outdoor production of various livestock species. Because of the widespread resistance to synthetic chemical anthelmintics, there is a strong impetus to explore novel approaches for a more integrated management of the infections. The use of nutraceuticals in the control of GINs is one of the alternatives which has been widely studied for since 20 years. The objectives of this review are: i) to define and illustrate the concept of ‘nutraceutical’ in the context of veterinary parasitology based on data obtained on the most studied GIN models in small ruminants, the tannin-containing legumes (Fabaceae); ii) to illustrate how the ‘nutraceutical concept’ could be expanded to other plants, other livestock production systems and other GI parasitic diseases, and iii) to explain how this concept is opening up new research fields for better understanding the interactions between the host, the digestive parasites and the environment.

The relationship between L3 transfer and structural similarity across L3 development: raising across an experience in Brazilian Portuguese

The present study examines three competing models of morphosyntactic transfer in third language (L3) acquisition, examining the particular domain of the feature configuration of embedded T in L3 Brazilian Portuguese (BP) at the initial stages and then through development. The methodology alternates Spanish and English as the L1 and L2 to tease apart the source of transfer to L3 BP. Results from a scalar grammaticality acceptability task show unequivocal transfer of Spanish irrespective of Spanish’s status as an L1 or L2. The data thus support the Typological Primacy Model (Rothman 2010, 2011, 2013a, 2013b), which proposes that multilingual transfer is selected by factors related to comparative structural similarity. Given that Spanish transfer at the L3 initial stages creates the need for feature reconfiguration to converge on the target BP grammar, the second part of this chapter examines the developmental consequences of what the TPM models in cases of non-facilitative initial transfer, that is, the developmental path of feature reconfiguration of embedded T in L3 BP by English/Spanish bilinguals. Given what these data reveal, we address the role of regressive transfer as a correlate of L3 proficiency gains.

Investigating the relationship between Eurasian snow and the Arctic Oscillation with data and models

Recent research suggests Eurasian snow-covered area (SCA) influences the Arctic Oscillation (AO) via the polar vortex. This could be important for Northern Hemisphere winter season forecasting. A fairly strong negative correlation between October SCA and the AO, based on both monthly and daily observational data, has been noted in the literature. While reproducing these previous links when using the same data, we find no further evidence of the link when using an independent satellite data source, or when using a climate model.