Strategies for sequential prediction of stationary time series

We present simple procedures for the prediction of a real valued sequence. The algorithms are based on a combinationof several simple predictors. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a bounded stationary and ergodic random process then the average of squared errors converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor. We offer an analog result for the prediction of stationary gaussian processes.

The significance of distributive effects in social assessment of health care

In this paper we address the importance of distributive effects in the social valuation of QALY's. We propose a social welfarefunction that generalises the functions traditionally used in the health economic literature. The novelty is that, depending on the individual health gains, our function can representeither preferences for concentrating or preferences for spreading total gain or both together, an issue which has notbeen addressed until now. Based on an experiment, we observe that this generalisation provides a suitable approximation tothe sampled social preferences.

Wage inequality and unemployment with overeducation

A skill-biased change in technology can account at once for the changes observed in a number of important variables of the US labour market between 1970 and 1990. These include the increasing inequality in wages, both between and within education groups, and the increase in unemployment at all levels of education. In contrast, in previous literature this type of technology shock cannot account for all of these changes. The paper uses a matching model with a segmented labour market, an imperfect correlation between individual ability and education, and a fixed cost of setting up a job. The endogenous increase in overeducation is key to understand the response of unemployment to the technology shock.

Associationism and electoral participation: A multilevel study of 2000 Spanish general election

This work presents an application of the multilevel analysis techniques tothe study of the abstention in the 2000 Spanish general election. Theinterest of the study is both, substantive and methodological. From thesubstantive point of view the article intends to explain the causes ofabstention and analyze the impact of associationism on it. From themethodological point of view it is intended to analyze the interaction betweenindividual and context with a modelisation that takes into account thehierarchical structure of data. The multilevel study of this paper validatesthe one level results obtained in previous analysis of the abstention andshows that only a fraction of the differences in abstention are explained bythe individual characteristics of the electors. Another important fraction ofthese differences is due to the political and social characteristics of thecontext. Relating to associationism, the data suggest that individualparticipation in associations decrease the probability of abstention. However,better indicators are needed in order to catch more properly the effect ofassociationism in electoral behaviour.

Capital, wages and growth: Theory and evidence

Returns to scale to capital and the strength of capital externalities play a key role for the empirical predictions and policy implications of different growth theories. We show that both can be identified with individual wage data and implement our approach at the city-level using US Census data on individuals in 173 cities for 1970, 1980, and 1990. Estimation takes into account fixed effects, endogeneity of capital accumulation, and measurement error. We find no evidence for human or physical capital externalities and decreasing aggregate returns to capital. Returns to scale to physical and human capital are around 80 percent. We also find strong complementarities between human capital and labor and substantial total employment externalities.

Macroprudential policy, countercyclical bank capital buffers and credit supply: Evidence from the Spanish dynamic provisioning experiments

We analyze the impact of countercyclical capital buffers held by banks on the supplyof credit to firms and their subsequent performance. Spain introduced dynamicprovisioning unrelated to specific bank loan losses in 2000 and modified its formulaparameters in 2005 and 2008. In each case, individual banks were impacteddifferently. The resultant bank-specific shocks to capital buffers, coupled withcomprehensive bank-, firm-, loan-, and loan application-level data, allow us toidentify its impact on the supply of credit and on real activity. Our estimates showthat countercyclical dynamic provisioning smooths cycles in the supply of credit andin bad times upholds firm financing and performance.

Transition probabilities and duration analysis among disability states: Some evidence from Spanish data

In this paper we study the disability transition probabilities (as well as the mortalityprobabilities) due to concurrent factors to age such as income, gender and education. Althoughit is well known that ageing and socioeconomic status influence the probability ofcausing functional disorders, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the combined effectof those factors along the individuals' life and how this affects the transition from one degreeof disability to another. The assumption that tomorrow's disability state is only a functionof the today's state is very strong, since disability is a complex variable that depends onseveral other elements than time. This paper contributes into the field in two ways: (1) byattending the distinction between the initial disability level and the process that leads tohis course (2) by addressing whether and how education, age and income differentially affectthe disability transitions. Using a Markov chain discrete model and a survival analysis, weestimate the probability by year and individual characteristics that changes the state of disabilityand the duration that it takes its progression in each case. We find that people withan initial state of disability have a higher propensity to change and take less time to transitfrom different stages. Men do that more frequently than women. Education and incomehave negative effects on transition. Moreover, we consider the disability benefits associatedto those changes along different stages of disability and therefore we offer some clues onthe potential savings of preventive actions that may delay or avoid those transitions. Onpure cost considerations, preventive programs for improvement show higher benefits thanthose for preventing deterioration, and in general terms, those focussing individuals below65 should go first. Finally the trend of disability in Spain seems not to change among yearsand regional differences are not found.

(Re-) Shaping hatred: Anti-Semitic attitudes in Germany, 1890-2006

In this paper, we assess the determinants of long-run persistence of localculture, and examine the success of policy interventions designed to change attitudes.We analyze anti-Semitic attitudes drawing on individual-level survey results fromGermany s social value survey in 1996 and 2006. On average, we find that historicalvoting patterns for anti-Semitic parties between 1890 and 1933 are powerfulpredictors of anti-Jewish attitudes today. There is evidence that transmission takesplace both vertically (parent to child) and horizontally (among peers). Policy modifiedGerman views on Jews in important ways: The cohort that grew up under the Naziregime shows significantly higher levels of anti-Semitism. After 1945, the victoriousAllies implemented denazification programs in their zones of occupation. We usedifferences in these policies between the occupying powers as a source of identifyingvariation. The US and French zones today still show high anti-Semitism, reflecting anambitious botched attempt at denazification. In contrast, the British and Soviet zones,register much lower levels of Jew-hatred.

Gender gaps in performance: Evidence from young lawyers

This paper documents and studies the gender gap in performance among associatelawyers in the United States. Unlike most high-skilled professions, the legal professionhas widely-used objective methods to measure and reward lawyers' productivity: thenumber of hours billed to clients and the amount of new-client revenue generated. Wefind clear evidence of a gender gap in annual performance with respect to bothmeasures. Male lawyers bill ten-percent more hours and bring in more than double thenew-client revenue. We show that the differential impact across genders in the presenceof young children and the differences in aspirations to become a law-firm partneraccount for a large part of the difference in performance. These performance gaps haveimportant consequences for gender gaps in earnings. While individual and firmcharacteristics explain up to 50 percent of earnings gap, the inclusion of performancemeasures explains most of the remainder.

Predictability of drug expenditures: An application using morbidity data

The growth of pharmaceutical expenditure and its prediction is a major concern for policy makers and health care managers. This paper explores different predictive models to estimate future drug expenses, using demographic and morbidity individual information from an integrated healthcare delivery organization in Catalonia for years 2002 and 2003. The morbidity information consists of codified health encounters grouped through the Clinical Risk Groups (CRGs). We estimate pharmaceutical costs using several model specifications, and CRGs as risk adjusters, providing an alternative way of obtaining high predictive power comparable to other estimations of drug expenditures in the literature. These results have clear implications for the use of risk adjustment and CRGs in setting the premiums for pharmaceutical benefits.

Individual Classification of Mild Cognitive Impairment Subtypes by Support Vector Machine Analysis of White Matter DTI.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: MCI was recently subdivided into sd-aMCI, sd-fMCI, and md-aMCI. The current investigation aimed to discriminate between MCI subtypes by using DTI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sixty-six prospective participants were included: 18 with sd-aMCI, 13 with sd-fMCI, and 35 with md-aMCI. Statistics included group comparisons using TBSS and individual classification using SVMs. RESULTS: The group-level analysis revealed a decrease in FA in md-aMCI versus sd-aMCI in an extensive bilateral, right-dominant network, and a more pronounced reduction of FA in md-aMCI compared with sd-fMCI in right inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus and inferior longitudinal fasciculus. The comparison between sd-fMCI and sd-aMCI, as well as the analysis of the other diffusion parameters, yielded no significant group differences. The individual-level SVM analysis provided discrimination between the MCI subtypes with accuracies around 97%. The major limitation is the relatively small number of cases of MCI. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that, at the group level, the md-aMCI subgroup has the most pronounced damage in white matter integrity. Individually, SVM analysis of white matter FA provided highly accurate classification of MCI subtypes.

Choice by sequential procedures

We propose a rule of decision-making, the sequential procedure guided byroutes, and show that three influential boundedly rational choice models can be equivalentlyunderstood as special cases of this rule. In addition, the sequential procedure guidedby routes is instrumental in showing that the three models are intimately related. We showthat choice with a status-quo bias is a refinement of rationalizability by game trees, which, inturn, is also a refinement of sequential rationalizability. Thus, we provide a sharp taxonomyof these choice models, and show that they all can be understood as choice by sequentialprocedures.

One person in the battlefield is not a warrior: Self-construal, perceived ability to make a difference, and socially responsible behavior

We suggest that cultivating an individual's connectedness to others promotes sociallyresponsible behavior both directly and indirectly through increased perceived abilityto make a difference. Individuals whose interdependent self is more prominent feel theyhave more of an impact on larger scale societal outcomes and, therefore, engage more insocially responsible behaviors than do individuals whose independent self is moreprominent. We test these hypotheses in two experiments in which participants makefinancial contributions or exert an effort for a social cause. In a survey, we find thatperceived effectiveness mediates the effect of self-construal on socially responsibleconsumption.

Married to intolerance: Attitudes towards intermarriage in Germany, 1900-2006

Marriage is amongst the biggest decisions in life. In general, there is a tendency towards assortative matching people marry others who are relatively similar to themselves. Intermarriage between different social, religious and ethnic groups in most societies is relatively rare (Blossfeld and Timm 2003). Where it occurs, it is associated with more rapid assimilation (Meng and Gregory 2005). The frequency of intermarriage can therefore serve as a useful indicator of tolerant attitudes towards a minority, and of the desire to integrate (Bisin, Topa, and Verdier 2004).In this paper, we analyze under which conditions intermarriage can be used as an indicator of tolerance, and whether such tolerant attitudes persisted in Germany during the last century. We combine information on individual-level attitudes from the German social survey (GESIS) with historical data on marriage patterns.

Information revelation and market incompleteness

\documentstyle[portada,11pt]{article}This paper shows that the presence of private information in aneconomy can be a source of market incompleteness even when it is feasibleto issue a set of securities that completely eliminates the informationalasymmetries in equilibrium. We analyze a simple security design model in which avolume maximizing futures exchange chooses not only the characteristics ofeach individual contract but also the number of contracts. Agents have rationalexpectations and differ in information, endowments and, possibly, attitudestoward risk. The emergence of complete or incomplete markets in equilibriumdepends on whether the {\it adverse selection effect} is stronger or weakerthan the {\it Hirshleifer effect}, as new securitiesare issued and prices reveal more information. When the Hirshleifer effectdominates, the exchange chooses an incomplete set of financial contracts, andthe equilibrium price is partially revealing.