Comparing population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data: an application to historical height data from France

This paper develops a methodology to estimate the entire population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data. We do this through the estimation of the parameters of mixtures of distributions that allow for maximal parametric flexibility. The statistical approach we develop enables comparisons of the full distributions of height data from potential army conscripts across France's 88 departments for most of the nineteenth century. These comparisons are made by testing for differences-of-means stochastic dominance. Corrections for possible measurement errors are also devised by taking advantage of the richness of the data sets. Our methodology is of interest to researchers working on historical as well as contemporary bin-aggregated or histogram-type data, something that is still widely done since much of the information that is publicly available is in that form, often due to restrictions due to political sensitivity and/or confidentiality concerns.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs

Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (=Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used maxent to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.

El Giravolt de la Família Robafaves

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit cientí­fic del Jovent l'any 2009. 'El Giravolt de la Família Robafaves' és un treball de recerca que engloba tota la història del fet geganter a Mataró des dels seus orígens fins a l'actualitat. Es tracta d'una activitat amb una dimensió cultural, folklòrica i històrica que ha servit per donar respostes a molts dels interrogants promulgats abans de dur a terme aquest projecte. Aquesta família de Gegants ha estat víctima de molts dels entrebancs vigents al llarg de la història així com guerres, revoltes, dictadures, etc. De manera que s'ha pogut comprovar com la política interior i exterior ha afectat a la Família Robafaves d'una manera directa. S'ha fet una investigació a través de les revistes publicades durant la transició democràtica. També cal dir que, s'ha tingut el recolzament d'entrevistes fetes a persones puntals en la història dels Gegants com ara geganters, Caps de Colla, la primera gegantera de la Família Robafaves, etc. Per poder corroborar la base teòrica i documental d'aquest treball s'ha fet un estudi estadístic de la significació social de la Festa Major de Mataró per poder valorar en quina situació es troba actualment. Així doncs, s'ha pogut valorar la influència i importància que tenen els Gegants per Mataró.

La crisi sub-prime i el crack de 1929: Comparació d'episodis d'eufòria financera

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. La present investigació té per objecte d’estudi la relació, atès el període de turbulències econòmiques que travessa el món globalitzat, entre els episodis d’eufòria financera i les crisi financeres i econòmiques, i la periodicitat amb les que aquestes es produeixen. Aquesta pretén confrontar-se des d’una aproximació històric-econòmica, mitjançant l’anàlisi i la comparació de dos successos -el crack borsari de 1929 i la crisi sub-prime- per tal de demostrar la existència de comuns denominadors, i, a la llum dels resultats, apreciar les conclusions que aporta la Història. Serà, doncs, aquesta periodicitat i les seves implicacions la qual s'ambicionarà contrastar amb la realitat mitjançant l'aplicació i l'anàlisi pràctica de dos episodis rellevants i paradigmàtics, amb el recolzament i l'autoritat del model comparatiu establerts per l'economista John Kenneth Galbraith al seu llibre ''Breve historia de la euforia financiera''.

Jaume Brossa (1868-1919) regeneracionista i revolucionari

Treball de recerca realitzat per una alumna d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. El present treball és un estudi de la personalitat humana, literària i filosòfica de Jaume Brossa així com un anàlisi del medi sociohistòric que li va tocar viure. El mètode utilitzat ha estat, en primer lloc, un rastreig de material original, articles publicats entre els anys 1892 i 1902 en diversos òrgans de premsa de Barcelona i Madrid. Una vegada obtingut el material requerit, s’ha sondejat per dins de les seves línies fins a trobar quin era el seu pensament en molts aspectes, a saber: el seu posicionament entorn els grans centres d’atenció del seu temps: el nacionalisme, el moviment obrer, l’estètica modernista en les seves parcel•les de música, literatura, teatre etc., tots aquests camps, tractats des de la base de la seva actitud regeneracionista i revolucionària. L’estudi s’ha realitzat des d’un enfocament crític: intentar esbrinar quines han estat les causes per les quals un autor certament notable de les nostres lletres ha estat marginat o, si més no, minimitzat en el seu abast intel•lectual. I, tal com es planteja al començament del treball, aquest consta d’una recerca de causes, implicacions, contextos etc. que ens permetin esbrinar per què Jaume Brossa ha estat desacreditat.

L'hystérie : une entité historique, un trouble psychiatrique ou une maladie neurologique? [Hysteria : an historical entity, a psychiatric condition or a neurological disease?]

Il a été suggéré que l'hystérie avait disparu et n'était qu'un concept ancien, stigmatisant et péjoratif, voire erroné, reflétant l'incapacité de la communauté médicale à établir parfois un diagnostic. Actuellement ces troubles, appelés troubles dissociatifs ou de conversion, restent pourtant une réalité clinique fréquente et invalidante pour les patients. Plusieurs études et revues ont tenté de mieux décrire la présentation clinique, mais également de mieux comprendre les mécanismes neurobiologiques impliqués dans ces troubles grâce au développement de certaines techniques d'imagerie cérébrale. Si les corrélats neurobiologiques sont mieux compris, des traitements efficaces manquent encore et seule une prise en charge multidisciplinaire (généralistes, neurologues et psychiatres) et individualisée peut apporter un bénéfice au patient. It has been suggested that hysteria had waned and was an old-fashioned, stigmatizing and false concept, reflecting the incapacity of the medical community to establish a diagnosis in certain situations. Nowadays, however, those disturbances, now referred to as conversion or dissociative disorders, still remain a frequent and incapacitating condition that every clinician faces. These past decades, several studies have tried to better describe their clinical presentation and their neurobiological mechanisms, with the help of the development of new neuroimaging techniques. If the neurobiological correlates are now better understood, efficient treatments are still lacking and only a multidisciplinary (general practitioners, neurologists and psychiatrists) and individually-tailored therapy might be beneficial to the patients.

Present aspects of immunodiagnosis of schistosomiasis

Facilitated and improved by advances in molecular biology, techniques for the immunodiagnosis of schistosomiasis, including assays based on the detection of antigens circulating in the serum and/or excreted in the urine, have now reached the stage of multi-centre trials. There is a need to complement parasitological techniques as some national programmes are becoming increasingly succesful in establishng control of the disease and the classical approach frequently fails to reveal low-intensity infection. Epidemiological survey teams in some areas have tentatively started to use serology and their experience indicates that antibody detection suffies in eradicated or controlled areas with low expected prevalence but that detection of circulating antigens is needed for assessment of the incidence of infection or reinfection in areas recently brought under control. Before reagents and procedures can be recommended for routine use of national control programmes, the assays must be standardized with sera from clinically well-characterized patients in geographically defined regions, hence emphasizing the need for a reference serum bank. Implementation of serological testing, carried out by nationsl public health laboratories using standardized testing systems, would permit valid comparisons between different areas providing support for decisions regarding national health polices.