753 resultados para Granger causality


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A recent study relying purely on statistical analysis of relatively short time series suggested substantial re-thinking of the traditional view about causality explaining the detected rising trend of atmospheric CO2 (atmCO2) concentrations. If these results are well-justified then they should surely compel a fundamental scientific shift in paradigms regarding both atmospheric greenhouse warming mechanism and global carbon cycle. However, the presented work suffers from serious logical deficiencies such as, 1) what could be the sink for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, if neither the atmosphere nor the ocean – as suggested by the authors – plays a role? 2) What is the alternative explanation for ocean acidification if the ocean is a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere? Probably the most provocative point of the commented study is that anthropogenic emissions have little influence on atmCO2 concentrations. The authors have obviously ignored the reconstructed and directly measured carbon isotopic trends of atmCO2 (both δ13C, and radiocarbon dilution) and the declining O2/N2 ratio, although these parameters provide solid evidence that fossil fuel combustion is the major source of atmCO2 increase throughout the Industrial Era.

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Bacterial production assays (thymidine incorporation rates) were used to evaluate the activity of heterotrophic bacteria at the chemocline region in both the East (ELB) and West (WLB) Lobes of permanently ice-covered Lake Bonney, in the Taylor Valley of Antarctica. The magnitude of activity varied dramatically within the depth interval of 1 to 2 m from moderate to very low levels below the chemocline, especially in the East Lobe, where chemical distributions indicate the absence of a normally functioning nitrogen cycle. Several parameters (e.g. addition of nutrients or chelators, dilution) were manipulated in incubation experiments in order to identify factors that would enhance activity in the suboxic deep waters of the East Lobe. Activity, in terms of thymidine incorporation, was consistently detected in the deep-water communities, implying that, although the water may be 'toxic', the cells remain viable. None of the treatments resulted in consistent enhancement of thymidine incorporation rates in samples from below the chemocline. Bacterial populations above the chemocline appear to be phosphorus-limited. The nature of the limitation, toxicity or inhibition that limits bacterial activity in the suboxic waters has not been identified.

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The distribution of denitrification was investigated in the hypolimnion of the east and west lobes of permanently ice-covered Lake Bonney, Taylor Valley, Antarctica. Anomalously high concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN; nitrate, nitrite, ammonium and nitrous oxide) in the oxygen-depleted hypolimnion of the east lobe of the Lake implied that denitrification is or was active in the west, but not in the east lobe. While previous investigations reported no detectable denitrification in the east lobe, we measured active denitrification in samples from both the east and west lobes. In the west lobe, measured denitrification rates exhibited a maximum at the depth of the chemocline and denitrification was not detectable in either the oxic surface waters or in the deep water where nitrate was absent. In the east lobe, denitrification was detected below the chemocline, at the depths where ammonium, nitrate, nitrite and nitrous oxide are all present at anomalously high levels, Trace metal availability was manipulated in incubation experiments in order to determine whether trace metal toxicity in the east lobe could explain the difference in nitrogen cycling between the 2 lobes. There were no consistent stimulatory effects of metal chelators or nutrient addition on the rate of denitrification in either lobe, so that the mechanisms underlying the unusual N cycle of the east lobe remain unknown. We conclude that all the ingredients necessary to allow denitrification to occur are present in the east lobe. However, even though denitrification could be detected under certain conditions in incubations, denitrification is inhibited under the in situ conditions of the lake.

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OBJECTIVE: Altered microbiota composition, changes in immune responses and impaired intestinal barrier functions are observed in IBD. Most of these features are controlled by proteases and their inhibitors to maintain gut homeostasis. Unrestrained or excessive proteolysis can lead to pathological gastrointestinal conditions. The aim was to validate the identified protease IBD candidates from a previously performed systematic review through a genetic association study and functional follow-up. DESIGN: We performed a genetic association study in a large multicentre cohort of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and UC from five European IBD referral centres in a total of 2320 CD patients, 2112 UC patients and 1796 healthy controls. Subsequently, we did an extensive functional assessment of the candidate genes to explore their causality in IBD pathogenesis. RESULTS: Ten single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in four genes were significantly associated with CD: CYLD, USP40, APEH and USP3. CYLD was the most significant gene with the intronically located rs12324931 the strongest associated SNP (pFDR=1.74e-17, OR=2.24 (1.83 to 2.74)). Five SNPs in four genes were significantly associated with UC: USP40, APEH, DAG1 and USP3. CYLD, as well as some of the other associated genes, is part of the ubiquitin proteasome system (UPS). We therefore determined if the IBD-associated adherent-invasive Escherichia coli (AIEC) can modulate the UPS functioning. Infection of intestinal epithelial cells with the AIEC LF82 reference strain modulated the UPS turnover by reducing poly-ubiquitin conjugate accumulation, increasing 26S proteasome activities and decreasing protein levels of the NF-κB regulator CYLD. This resulted in IκB-α degradation and NF-κB activation. This activity was very important for the pathogenicity of AIEC since decreased CYLD resulted in increased ability of AIEC LF82 to replicate intracellularly. CONCLUSIONS: Our results reveal the UPS, and CYLD specifically, as an important contributor to IBD pathogenesis, which is favoured by both genetic and microbial factors.

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BACKGROUND: Risk factors and outcomes of bronchial stricture after lung transplantation are not well defined. An association between acute rejection and development of stricture has been suggested in small case series. We evaluated this relationship using a large national registry. METHODS: All lung transplantations between April 1994 and December 2008 per the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database were analyzed. Generalized linear models were used to determine the association between early rejection and development of stricture after adjusting for potential confounders. The association of stricture with postoperative lung function and overall survival was also evaluated. RESULTS: Nine thousand three hundred thirty-five patients were included for analysis. The incidence of stricture was 11.5% (1,077/9,335), with no significant change in incidence during the study period (P=0.13). Early rejection was associated with a significantly greater incidence of stricture (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22-1.61; p<0.0001). Male sex, restrictive lung disease, and pretransplantation requirement for hospitalization were also associated with stricture. Those who experienced stricture had a lower postoperative peak percent predicted forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV1) (median 74% versus 86% for bilateral transplants only; p<0.0001), shorter unadjusted survival (median 6.09 versus 6.82 years; p<0.001) and increased risk of death after adjusting for potential confounders (adjusted hazard ratio 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03-1.23; p=0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Early rejection is associated with an increased incidence of stricture. Recipients with stricture demonstrate worse postoperative lung function and survival. Prospective studies may be warranted to further assess causality and the potential for coordinated rejection and stricture surveillance strategies to improve postoperative outcomes.

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The QT interval, an electrocardiographic measure reflecting myocardial repolarization, is a heritable trait. QT prolongation is a risk factor for ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD) and could indicate the presence of the potentially lethal mendelian long-QT syndrome (LQTS). Using a genome-wide association and replication study in up to 100,000 individuals, we identified 35 common variant loci associated with QT interval that collectively explain ∼8-10% of QT-interval variation and highlight the importance of calcium regulation in myocardial repolarization. Rare variant analysis of 6 new QT interval-associated loci in 298 unrelated probands with LQTS identified coding variants not found in controls but of uncertain causality and therefore requiring validation. Several newly identified loci encode proteins that physically interact with other recognized repolarization proteins. Our integration of common variant association, expression and orthogonal protein-protein interaction screens provides new insights into cardiac electrophysiology and identifies new candidate genes for ventricular arrhythmias, LQTS and SCD.

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OBJECTIVE There is increasing evidence that epileptic activity involves widespread brain networks rather than single sources and that these networks contribute to interictal brain dysfunction. We investigated the fast-varying behavior of epileptic networks during interictal spikes in right and left temporal lobe epilepsy (RTLE and LTLE) at a whole-brain scale using directed connectivity. METHODS In 16 patients, 8 with LTLE and 8 with RTLE, we estimated the electrical source activity in 82 cortical regions of interest (ROIs) using high-density electroencephalography (EEG), individual head models, and a distributed linear inverse solution. A multivariate, time-varying, and frequency-resolved Granger-causal modeling (weighted Partial Directed Coherence) was applied to the source signal of all ROIs. A nonparametric statistical test assessed differences between spike and baseline epochs. Connectivity results between RTLE and LTLE were compared between RTLE and LTLE and with neuropsychological impairments. RESULTS Ipsilateral anterior temporal structures were identified as key drivers for both groups, concordant with the epileptogenic zone estimated invasively. We observed an increase in outflow from the key driver already before the spike. There were also important temporal and extratemporal ipsilateral drivers in both conditions, and contralateral only in RTLE. A different network pattern between LTLE and RTLE was found: in RTLE there was a much more prominent ipsilateral to contralateral pattern than in LTLE. Half of the RTLE patients but none of the LTLE patients had neuropsychological deficits consistent with contralateral temporal lobe dysfunction, suggesting a relationship between connectivity changes and cognitive deficits. SIGNIFICANCE The different patterns of time-varying connectivity in LTLE and RTLE suggest that they are not symmetrical entities, in line with our neuropsychological results. The highest outflow region was concordant with invasive validation of the epileptogenic zone. This enhanced characterization of dynamic connectivity patterns could better explain cognitive deficits and help the management of epilepsy surgery candidates.

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Both obesity and asthma are highly prevalent, complex diseases modified by multiple factors. Genetic, developmental, lung mechanical, immunological and behavioural factors have all been suggested as playing a causal role between the two entities; however, their complex mechanistic interactions are still poorly understood and evidence of causality in children remains scant. Equally lacking is evidence of effective treatment strategies, despite the fact that imbalances at vulnerable phases in childhood can impact long-term health. This review is targeted at both clinicians frequently faced with the dilemma of how to investigate and treat the obese asthmatic child and researchers interested in the topic. Highlighting the breadth of the spectrum of factors involved, this review collates evidence regarding the investigation and treatment of asthma in obese children, particularly in comparison with current approaches in 'difficult-to-treat' childhood asthma. Finally, the authors propose hypotheses for future research from a systems-based perspective.

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Objectives: The aim of this systematic literature review is to investigate (A) currently used instruments for assessing psychological distress, (B) the prevalence of psychological distress in medical emergency department (ED) patients with acute somatic conditions and (C) empirical evidence on how predictors are associated with psychological distress. Methods: We conducted an electronic literature search using three databases to identify studies that used validated instruments for detection of psychological distress in adult patients presented to the ED with somatic (non-psychiatric) complaints. From a total of 1688 potential articles, 18 studies were selected for in-depth review. Results: A total of 13 instruments have been applied for assessment of distress including screening questionnaires and briefly structured clinical interviews. Using these instruments, the prevalence of psychological distress detected in medical ED patients was between 4% and 47%. Psychological distress in general and particularly depression and anxiety have been found to be associated with demographic factors (eg, female gender, middle age) and illness-related variables (eg, urgency of triage category). Some studies reported that coexisting psychological distress of medical patients identified in the ED was associated with physical and psychological health status after ED discharge. Importantly, during routine clinical care, only few patients with psychological distress were diagnosed by their treating physicians. Conclusions: There is strong evidence that psychological distress is an important and prevalent cofactor in medically ill patients presenting to the ED with harmful associations with (subjective) health outcomes. To prove causality, future research should investigate whether screening and lowering psychological distress with specific interventions would result in better patient outcomes.

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The main objective of this preliminary study was to further clarify the association between testosterone (T) levels and depression by investigating symptom-based depression subtypes in a sample of 64 men. The data were taken from the ZInEP epidemiology survey. Gonadal hormones of a melancholic (n  = 25) and an atypical (n = 14) depression subtype, derived from latent class analysis, were compared with those of healthy controls (n  = 18). Serum T was assayed using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay procedure. Analysis of variance, analysis of covariance, non-parametrical tests, and generalized linear regression models were performed to examine group differences. The atypical depressive subtype showed significantly lower T levels compared with the melancholic depressives. While accumulative evidence indicates that, beyond psychosocial characteristics, the melancholic and atypical depressive subtypes are also distinguishable by biological correlates, the current study expanded this knowledge to include gonadal hormones. Further longitudinal research is warranted to disclose causality by linking the multiple processes in pathogenesis of depression.

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Cholesterol deficiency, a new autosomal recessive inherited genetic defect in Holstein cattle, has been recently reported to have an influence on the rearing success of calves. The affected animals show unresponsive diarrhea accompanied by hypocholesterolemia and usually die within the first weeks or months of life. Here, we show that whole genome sequencing combined with the knowledge about the pedigree and inbreeding status of a livestock population facilitates the identification of the causative mutation. We resequenced the entire genomes of an affected calf and a healthy partially inbred male carrying one copy of the critical 2.24-Mb chromosome 11 segment in its ancestral state and one copy of the same segment with the cholesterol deficiency mutation. We detected a single structural variant, homozygous in the affected case and heterozygous in the non-affected carrier male. The genetic makeup of this key animal provides extremely strong support for the causality of this mutation. The mutation represents a 1.3kb insertion of a transposable LTR element (ERV2-1) in the coding sequence of the APOB gene, which leads to truncated transcripts and aberrant splicing. This finding was further supported by RNA sequencing of the liver transcriptome of an affected calf. The encoded apolipoprotein B is an essential apolipoprotein on chylomicrons and low-density lipoproteins, and therefore, the mutation represents a loss of function mutation similar to autosomal recessive inherited familial hypobetalipoproteinemia-1 (FHBL1) in humans. Our findings provide a direct gene test to improve selection against this deleterious mutation in Holstein cattle.

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BACKGROUND The link between depression and paranoia has long been discussed in psychiatric literature. Because the causality of this association is difficult to study in patients with full-blown psychosis, we aimed to investigate how clinical depression relates to the presence and occurrence of paranoid symptoms in clinical high-risk (CHR) patients. METHODS In all, 245 young help-seeking CHR patients were assessed for suspiciousness and paranoid symptoms with the structured interview for prodromal syndromes at baseline, 9- and 18-month follow-up. At baseline, clinical diagnoses were assessed by the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV, childhood adversities by the Trauma and Distress Scale, trait-like suspiciousness by the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire, and anxiety and depressiveness by the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. RESULTS At baseline, 54.3 % of CHR patients reported at least moderate paranoid symptoms. At 9- and 18-month follow-ups, the corresponding figures were 28.3 and 24.4 %. Depressive, obsessive-compulsive and somatoform disorders, emotional and sexual abuse, and anxiety and suspiciousness associated with paranoid symptoms. In multivariate modelling, depressive and obsessive-compulsive disorders, sexual abuse, and anxiety predicted persistence of paranoid symptoms. CONCLUSION Depressive disorder was one of the major clinical factors predicting persistence of paranoid symptoms in CHR patients. In addition, obsessive-compulsive disorder, childhood sexual abuse, and anxiety associated with paranoia. Effective pharmacological and psychotherapeutic treatment of these disorders and anxiety may reduce paranoid symptoms in CHR patients.

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The concept of theory of mind (ToM), a hot topic in cognitive psychology for the past twenty-five years, has gained increasing importance in the fields of linguistics and pragmatics. However, even though the relationship between ToM and verbal communication is now recognized, the extent, causality and full implications of this connection remain mostly to be explored. This book presents a comprehensive discussion of the interface between language, communication, and theory of mind, and puts forward an innovative proposal regarding the role of discourse connectives for this interface. The proposed analysis of connectives is tested from the perspective of their acquisition, using empirical methods such as corpus analysis and controlled experiments, thus placing the study of connectives within the emerging framework of experimental pragmatics.

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OBJECTIVE In patients with epilepsy, seizure relapse and behavioral impairments can be observed despite the absence of interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs). Therefore, the characterization of pathologic networks when IEDs are not present could have an important clinical value. Using Granger-causal modeling, we investigated whether directed functional connectivity was altered in electroencephalography (EEG) epochs free of IED in left and right temporal lobe epilepsy (LTLE and RTLE) compared to healthy controls. METHODS Twenty LTLE, 20 RTLE, and 20 healthy controls underwent a resting-state high-density EEG recording. Source activity was obtained for 82 regions of interest (ROIs) using an individual head model and a distributed linear inverse solution. Granger-causal modeling was applied to the source signals of all ROIs. The directed functional connectivity results were compared between groups and correlated with clinical parameters (duration of the disease, age of onset, age, and learning and mood impairments). RESULTS We found that: (1) patients had significantly reduced connectivity from regions concordant with the default-mode network; (2) there was a different network pattern in patients versus controls: the strongest connections arose from the ipsilateral hippocampus in patients and from the posterior cingulate cortex in controls; (3) longer disease duration was associated with lower driving from contralateral and ipsilateral mediolimbic regions in RTLE; (4) aging was associated with a lower driving from regions in or close to the piriform cortex only in patients; and (5) outflow from the anterior cingulate cortex was lower in patients with learning deficits or depression compared to patients without impairments and to controls. SIGNIFICANCE Resting-state network reorganization in the absence of IEDs strengthens the view of chronic and progressive network changes in TLE. These resting-state connectivity alterations could constitute an important biomarker of TLE, and hold promise for using EEG recordings without IEDs for diagnosis or prognosis of this disorder.

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Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two tasks. First, it describes the process of revising the Connecticut Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes. Second, it analyzes the statistical properties and performance of the new indexes by comparing the lead profiles of the new and old indexes as well as their out-of-sample forecasting performance, using the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) method. The new indexes show improved performance in dating employment cycle chronologies. The lead profile test demonstrates that superiority in a rigorous, non-parametric statistic fashion. The mixed evidence on the BVAR forecasting experiments illustrates the truth in the Granger and Newbold (1986) caution that leading indexes properly predict cycle turning points and do not necessarily provide accurate forecasts except at turning points, a view that our results support.