Estudo de caso-controle para desenvolvimento e validação de um questionário de avaliação de abuso sexual em crianças

Objetivos: Desenvolver e validar instrumento que auxilie o pediatra a determinar a probabilidade de ocorrência do abuso sexual em crianças. Métodos: Estudo de caso-controle com 201 crianças que consultaram em ambulatórios de pediatria e locais de referência para vítimas de abuso sexual, entre março e novembro de 2004: grupo caso (com suspeita ou revelação de abuso sexual) e grupo controle (sem suspeita de abuso sexual). Aplicou-se, junto aos responsáveis, um questionário com 18 itens e cinco opções de respostas segundo a escala Likert, abordando comportamento, sintomas físicos e emocionais apresentados pelas crianças. Excluíram-se nove crianças sem controle esfincteriano e um item respondido por poucas pessoas. A validade e consistência interna dos itens foram avaliadas com obtenção de coeficientes de correlação (Pearson, Spearman e Goodman-Kruskal), coeficiente α de Cronbach e cálculo da área da curva ROC. Calculou-se, após, a razão de verossimilhança (RV) e os valores preditivo positivos (VPP) para os cinco itens do questionário que apresentaram os melhores desempenhos. Resultados: Obteve-se um questionário composto pelos cinco itens que melhor discriminaram crianças com e sem abuso sexual em dois contextos. Cada criança recebeu um escore resultante da soma das respostas com pesos de 0 a 4 (amplitude de 0 a 20), o qual, através do teorema de Bayes (RV), indicou sua probabilidade pós-teste (VPP) de abuso sexual. Conclusões: O instrumento proposto é útil por ser de fácil aplicação, auxiliando o pediatra na identificação de crianças vítimas de abuso sexual. Ele fornecerá, conforme o escore obtido, a probabilidade (VPP) de abuso sexual, orientando na conduta de cuidado à criança.

Identification and estimation of interventions using changes in inequality measures

This paper presents semiparametric estimators of changes in inequality measures of a dependent variable distribution taking into account the possible changes on the distributions of covariates. When we do not impose parametric assumptions on the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given covariates, this problem becomes equivalent to estimation of distributional impacts of interventions (treatment) when selection to the program is based on observable characteristics. The distributional impacts of a treatment will be calculated as differences in inequality measures of the potential outcomes of receiving and not receiving the treatment. These differences are called here Inequality Treatment Effects (ITE). The estimation procedure involves a first non-parametric step in which the probability of receiving treatment given covariates, the propensity-score, is estimated. Using the inverse probability weighting method to estimate parameters of the marginal distribution of potential outcomes, in the second step weighted sample versions of inequality measures are computed. Root-N consistency, asymptotic normality and semiparametric efficiency are shown for the semiparametric estimators proposed. A Monte Carlo exercise is performed to investigate the behavior in finite samples of the estimator derived in the paper. We also apply our method to the evaluation of a job training program.

Bounds for the probability distribution function of the linear ACD process

This paper derives both lower and upper bounds for the probability distribution function of stationary ACD(p, q) processes. For the purpose of illustration, I specialize the results to the main parent distributions in duration analysis. Simulations show that the lower bound is much tighter than the upper bound.

Test score disclosure and school performance

In this paper we test whether the disclosure of test scores has direct impacts on student performance, school composition and school inputs. We take advantage of the discontinuity on the disclosure rules of The National Secondary Education Examination (ENEM) run in Brazil by the Ministry of Education: In 2006 it was established that the 2005 mean score results would be disclosed for schools with ten or more students who took the exam in the previous year. We use a regression discontinuity design to estimate the e ects of test disclosure. Our results indicate that private schools that had their average scores released in 2005 outperformed those that did not by 0.2-0.6 in 2007. We did not nd same results for public schools. Moreover, we did not nd evidence that treated schools adjusted their inputs or that there was major changes in the students composition of treated schools. These ndings allow us to interpret that the main mechanism driving the di erences in performance was the increased levels of students', teachers' and principals' e ort exerted by those in schools that had scores publicized.

Better than my pride is your misfortune: the impact of schadenfreude on decision-making

Investigações anteriores relacionadas ao schadenfreude concentraram-se nos fatores que provocam o prazer no infortúnio do outro. A presente pesquisa tem como objetivo investigar o impacto do schadenfreude na tomada de decisão. Dois estudos (um em laboratório e uma em campo) abordam o impacto do schadenfreude em decisões realizadas no passado e no futuro em eventos desportivos. O primeiro estudo confronta sentimentos de orgulho em uma vitória do time favorito contra os sentimentos de perda schadenfreude de uma equipe rival. Os resultados mostraram que as pessoas preferiam enviar notícias sobre a vitória da equipe favorita (orgulho) ao invés da perda do time rival (schadenfreude) quando as diferenças de pontuação no jogo eram pequenas (por exemplo: time favorito 1 x 0 outro, contra, o time rival 0 x 1 favorito). No entanto, as pessoas eram mais propensas a fazer a escolha schadenfreude (por exemplo, escolher o envio de uma notícia sobre a derrota de um time rival) quando o resultado era alto (por exemplo, time favorito 5 x 0 rival, contra, time rival 0 x 5 favorito). O segundo estudo no campo examina como schadenfreude influencia a vontade de apostar contra um time rival. Para responder a esse problema, a preferência da equipe do participante é avaliada (Participantes que apoiam time alvo contra os que apoiam o rival). Uma manipulação de louvor é adicionada, tal que os consumidores vejam ou não um elogio à equipe alvo enquanto eles estão fazendo uma aposta sobre o resultado da partida. Os resultados mostram que os torcedores do time alvo não foram influenciados pela manipulação de louvor. No entanto, torcedores do time rival aumentaram sua probabilidade de aposta contra o time alvo (ou seja, mostraram um comportamento que envolve o schadenfreude) quando esta foi elogiada antes do jogo.

Inequality treatment effects

This paper presents semiparametric estimators for treatment effects parameters when selection to treatment is based on observable characteristics. The parameters of interest in this paper are those that capture summarized distributional effects of the treatment. In particular, the focus is on the impact of the treatment calculated by differences in inequality measures of the potential outcomes of receiving and not receiving the treatment. These differences are called here inequality treatment effects. The estimation procedure involves a first non-parametric step in which the probability of receiving treatment given covariates, the propensity-score, is estimated. Using the reweighting method to estimate parameters of the marginal distribution of potential outcomes, in the second step weighted sample versions of inequality measures are.computed. Calculations of semiparametric effciency bounds for inequality treatment effects parameters are presented. Root-N consistency, asymptotic normality, and the achievement of the semiparametric efficiency bound are shown for the semiparametric estimators proposed. A Monte Carlo exercise is performed to investigate the behavior in finite samples of the estimator derived in the paper.

Integral representation with convex capacities that are squeeze of (additive) probability measures

In this paper I will investigate the conditions under which a convex capacity (or a non-additive probability which exhibts uncertainty aversion) can be represented as a squeeze of a(n) (additive) probability measure associate to an uncertainty aversion function. Then I will present two alternatives forrnulations of the Choquet integral (and I will extend these forrnulations to the Choquet expected utility) in a parametric approach that will enable me to do comparative static exercises over the uncertainty aversion function in an easy way.

Template Score

Imagem componente do jogo “Musikinésia (http://www.loa.sead.ufscar.br/musikinesia.php)” desenvolvido pela equipe do Laboratório de Objetos de Aprendizagem da Universidade Federal de São Carlos (LOA/UFSCar).

Genetic parameters and environmental effects on temperament score and reproductive traits of Nellore cattle

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estudo Comparativo de Métricas de Pontuação para Aprendizagem Estrutural de Redes Bayesianas

Bayesian networks are powerful tools as they represent probability distributions as graphs. They work with uncertainties of real systems. Since last decade there is a special interest in learning network structures from data. However learning the best network structure is a NP-Hard problem, so many heuristics algorithms to generate network structures from data were created. Many of these algorithms use score metrics to generate the network model. This thesis compare three of most used score metrics. The K-2 algorithm and two pattern benchmarks, ASIA and ALARM, were used to carry out the comparison. Results show that score metrics with hyperparameters that strength the tendency to select simpler network structures are better than score metrics with weaker tendency to select simpler network structures for both metrics (Heckerman-Geiger and modified MDL). Heckerman-Geiger Bayesian score metric works better than MDL with large datasets and MDL works better than Heckerman-Geiger with small datasets. The modified MDL gives similar results to Heckerman-Geiger for large datasets and close results to MDL for small datasets with stronger tendency to select simpler network structures

OVARIAN HISTOLOGY and FOLLICULAR SCORE IN FEMALE RATS TREATED WITH NANDROLONE DECANOATE and SUBMITTED TO PHYSICAL EFFORT

The study was conducted to analyze the histology of the ovaries of adults rats treated with steroids, and submitted or not to physical effort. The control group consisted of females submitted to physical effort and sedentary females, both of which received a physiological solution of 0.9% saline. Treated females, sedentary or not, received 6 mg/kg of body weight of nandrolone decanoate. The steroid and physiological solution were administered intraperitoneally, with a single injection per week for 4 consecutive weeks. The applied physical effort was swimming (20 minutes daily, 5 days/week, for the 4 weeks of treatment). Serial sections (5 mu m) of ovaries were prepared for histological evaluation and follicular score. The weight of ovaries and hypophysis, the number of antral and atretic follicles, and the area of corpus luteum were all affected by the steroids. In the ovaries of the control groups, well-developed corpus luteum was observed. In the treated groups, the cortical stroma was occupied by ovarian interstitial tissue. The females treated with steroids presented estral acyclicity. The use of nandrolone decanoate, whether associated with physical effort or not, affected the morphological pattern of the ovaries.

Inconsistencies of a purported probability current in the Duffin-Kemmer-Petiau theory

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Comportamento social de botos-cinza, sotalia guianensis, na praia de Pipa, RN, Brasil: dinâmica, sequência, sincronia e respostas ao turismo de observação

Social behavior of Guiana dolphins, Sotalia guianensis, at Pipa Beach, RN, Brazil: dynamics, sequence, breathing synchrony, and responses to dolphin watching. Social animals form groups that can range from temporary to permanent. Depending on the nature of the social relationships developed between individuals, groups present a particular social organization and the effect of these interactions shapes the activity patterns of these animals. This study investigates: (i) fission-fusion dynamics of Guiana dolphins, through the analysis of three dimensions of the social system (variation in spatial cohesion, variation in size and composition of groups), (ii) sequence, routine and behavioral stability, (iii) breathing intervals in synchronized groups and (iv) behavioral responses of the animals to dolphin watching. Systematic observations of Guiana dolphins were made from a platform located in cliffs about 25 m above sea level that surround Madeiro Bay, Pipa Beach. Sampling occurred from December 2007 to February 2009 between 0600 h and 1600 h, and the groups of Guiana dolphins were investigated according to their size (alone and group) and composition (adults, adults and juveniles, and adults and calves). According to the analysis of fission-fusion dynamics, Guiana dolphin groups frequently changed their composition, modifying their patterns of spatial grouping and cohesion every 20 minutes on average. More than 50% of the individuals maintained a distance of up to 2 m from other group members and new individuals were attracted to the group, especially during feeding, leaving it for foraging. Large groups were more unstable than small, while groups containing only adults were more stable than groups of adults and juveniles. According to the Z-score analysis to investigate the sequence and behavioral routine, lone individuals were more ! .7! ! involved in foraging and feeding, while resting was more common in groups. Foraging and feeding were more common in homogeneous groups (individuals of the same age class), while heterogeneous groups (different age classes) were often involved in socialization, displaying a broader behavioral repertoire. Foraging and resting behavior presented higher stability (continuous duration in minutes) than the other behaviors. The analysis of breathing intervals in synchronized groups showed significant differences depending on type of behavior, composition and area preference. During resting, breathing intervals were of longer duration, and groups with calves showed shorter breathing intervals than groups without calves. Lone individuals also preferred areas called corral , often used for the entrapment of fishes. The Markov chain analysis revealed behavioral changes in the presence of boats, according to the type of group composition. Groups composed of adults presented decreased resting and increased in traveling during the presence of boats. Groups of adults and juveniles showed a massive reduction of socialization, while the behavior transition probability traveling-traveling was higher in groups of adults and calves. In the presence of the boats, stability of resting was reduced by one third of its original duration and traveling more than doubled. The behavioral patterns analyzed are discussed in light of socio-ecological models concerning costs and benefits of proximity between individuals and behavioral optimization. Furthermore, significant changes in behavioral patterns indicate that Guiana dolphins, at Pipa Beach, have suffered the effects of tourism as a result of violation of rules of conduct established for the study area

Misclassification probability as obese or lean in hypercaloric and normocaloric diet

The aim of the present study was to determine the classification error probabilities, as lean or obese, in hypercaloric diet-induced obesity, which depends on the variable used to characterize animal obesity. In addition, the misclassification probabilities in animals submitted to normocaloric diet were also evaluated. Male Wistar rats were randomly distributed into two groups: normal diet (ND; n=3 1; 3,5 Kcal/g) and hypercaloric diet (HD; n=31; 4,6 Kcal/g). The ND group received commercial Labina rat feed and HD animals a cycle of five hypercaloric diets for a 14-week period. The variables analysed were body weight, body composition, body weight to length ratio, Lee index, body mass index and misclassification probability A 5% significance level was used. The hypercaloric pellet-diet cycle promoted increase of body weight, carcass fat, body weight to length ratio and Lee index. The total misclassification probabilities ranged from 19.21 % to 40.91 %. In Conclusion, the results of this experiment show that rnisclassification probabilities Occur when dietary manipulation is used to promote obesity in animals. This misjudgement ranges from 19.49% to 40.52% in hypercaloric diet and 18.94% to 41.30% in normocaloric diet.

Aplicativo informatizado com o nursing activities score: instrumento para gerenciamento da assistência em unidade de terapia intensiva

A gravidade do paciente ou o número de intervenções nem sempre serão proporcionais à carga de trabalho de enfermagem. Este estudo descritivo teve como objetivo demonstrar a trajetória da construção de um aplicativo (software) com o conteúdo do Nursing Activities Score e suas características operacionais. Foi realizado um teste piloto com 12 pacientes seguindo-se a coleta de dados por 90 dias consecutivos em 123 pacientes. Houve compatibilidade na transmissão de dados do Personal Digital Assistent para o computador de mesa, via wireless. A construção do aplicativo resultou em um sistema com coleta e administração de dados e permitiu realizar a interface gráfica. A utilização do aplicativo possibilita o uso de um sistema tecnológico para aplicação diária, com alimentação de um banco de dados sobre as características dos cuidados requeridos. Conhecendo a evolução destas variáveis durante a internação, o enfermeiro poderá planejar, intervir e avaliar a qualidade do cuidado.