Seven hazards in Cameron's intended European Policy. CEPS Commentary, 15 January 2013

As the date approaches for Prime Minister Cameron’s long-awaited speech setting out his policy intentions towards the EU, a new CEPS Commentary by Michael Emerson chronicles a plethora of problems his propositions are going to encounter for their successful implementation in the both the British and European interests.

Processes influencing ozone levels in Alaskan forest fire plumes during long-range transport over the North Atlantic

A case of long-range transport of a biomass burning plume from Alaska to Europe is analyzed using a Lagrangian approach. This plume was sampled several times in the free troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe by three different aircraft during the IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 experiment which was part of the ICARTT/ITOP measurement intensive in summer 2004. Measurements in the plume showed enhanced values of CO, VOCs and NOy, mainly in form of PAN. Observed O3 levels increased by 17 ppbv over 5 days. A photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, was used to examine processes responsible for the chemical evolution of the plume. The model was initialized with upwind data and compared with downwind measurements. The influence of high aerosol loading on photolysis rates in the plume was investigated using in situ aerosol measurements in the plume and lidar retrievals of optical depth as input into a photolysis code (Fast-J), run in the model. Significant impacts on photochemistry are found with a decrease of 18% in O3 production and 24% in O3 destruction over 5 days when including aerosols. The plume is found to be chemically active with large O3 increases attributed primarily to PAN decomposition during descent of the plume toward Europe. The predicted O3 changes are very dependent on temperature changes during transport and also on water vapor levels in the lower troposphere which can lead to O3 destruction. Simulation of mixing/dilution was necessary to reproduce observed pollutant levels in the plume. Mixing was simulated using background concentrations from measurements in air masses in close proximity to the plume, and mixing timescales (averaging 6.25 days) were derived from CO changes. Observed and simulated O3/CO correlations in the plume were also compared in order to evaluate the photochemistry in the model. Observed slopes change from negative to positive over 5 days. This change, which can be attributed largely to photochemistry, is well reproduced by multiple model runs even if slope values are slightly underestimated suggesting a small underestimation in modeled photochemical O3 production. The possible impact of this biomass burning plume on O3 levels in the European boundary layer was also examined by running the model for a further 5 days and comparing with data collected at surface sites, such as Jungfraujoch, which showed small O3 increases and elevated CO levels. The model predicts significant changes in O3 over the entire 10 day period due to photochemistry but the signal is largely lost because of the effects of dilution. However, measurements in several other BB plumes over Europe show that O3 impact of Alaskan fires can be potentially significant over Europe.

Forest fire plumes over the North Atlantic: p-TOMCAT model simulations with aircraft and satellite measurements from the ITOP/ICARTT campaign

Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) (part of International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT)) was an intense research effort to measure long-range transport of pollution across the North Atlantic and its impact on O3 production. During the aircraft campaign plumes were encountered containing large concentrations of CO plus other tracers and aerosols from forest fires in Alaska and Canada. A chemical transport model, p-TOMCAT, and new biomass burning emissions inventories are used to study the emissions long-range transport and their impact on the troposphere O3 budget. The fire plume structure is modeled well over long distances until it encounters convection over Europe. The CO values within the simulated plumes closely match aircraft measurements near North America and over the Atlantic and have good agreement with MOPITT CO data. O3 and NOx values were initially too great in the model plumes. However, by including additional vertical mixing of O3 above the fires, and using a lower NO2/CO emission ratio (0.008) for boreal fires, O3 concentrations are reduced closer to aircraft measurements, with NO2 closer to SCIAMACHY data. Too little PAN is produced within the simulated plumes, and our VOC scheme's simplicity may be another reason for O3 and NOx model-data discrepancies. In the p-TOMCAT simulations the fire emissions lead to increased tropospheric O3 over North America, the north Atlantic and western Europe from photochemical production and transport. The increased O3 over the Northern Hemisphere in the simulations reaches a peak in July 2004 in the range 2.0 to 6.2 Tg over a baseline of about 150 Tg.

Taxonomical vs. functional responses of bee communities to fire in two contrasting climatic regions

Valuable insights into mechanisms of community responses to environmental change can be gained by analysing in tandem the variation in functional and taxonomic composition along environmental gradients. We assess the changes in species and functional trait composition (i.e. dominant traits and functional diversity) of diverse bee communities in contrasting fire-driven systems in two climatic regions: Mediterranean (scrub habitats in Israel) and temperate (chestnut forests in southern Switzerland). In both climatic regions, there were shifts in species diversity and composition related to post-fire age. In the temperate region, functional composition responded markedly to fire; however, in the Mediterranean, the taxonomic response to fire was not matched by functional replacement. These results suggest that greater functional stability to fire in the Mediterranean is achieved by replacement of functionally similar species (i.e. functional redundancy) which dominate under different environmental conditions in the heterogeneous landscapes of the region. In contrast, the greater functional response in the temperate region was attributed to a more rapid post-fire vegetation recovery and shorter time-window when favourable habitat was available relative to the Mediterranean. Bee traits can be used to predict the functional responses of bee communities to environmental changes in habitats of conservation importance in different regions with distinct disturbance regimes. However, predictions cannot be generalized from one climatic region to another where distinct habitat configurations occur.

Response of plant-pollinator communities to fire: changes in diversity, abundance and floral reward structure

Globally, plant-pollinator communities are subject to a diverse array of perturbations and in many temperate and semi-arid systems fire is a dominant structuring force. We present a novel and highly integrated approach, which quantifies, in parallel, the response to fire of pollinator communities, floral communities and floral reward structure. Mt Carmel, Israel is a recognised bee-flower biodiversity hotspot, and using a chronosequence of habitats with differing post-fire ages, we follow the changes in plant-pollinator community organisation from immediately following a burn until full regeneration of vegetation. Initially, fire has a catastrophic effect on these communities, however, recovery is rapid with a peak in diversity of both flowers and bees in the first 2 years post-fire, followed by a steady decline over the next 50 years. The regeneration of floral communities is closely matched by that of their principal pollinators. At the community level we quantify, per unit area of habitat, key parameters of nectar and pollen forage known to be of importance in structuring pollinator communities. Nectar Volume, nectar water content, nectar concentration and the diversity of nectar foraging niches are all greatest immediately following fire with a steady decrease as regeneration proceeds. Temporal changes in energy availability for nectar, pollen, total energy (nectar + pollen) and relative importance of pollen to nectar energy show a similar general decline with site age, however, the pattern is less clear owing to the highly patchy distribution of floral resources. Changes in floral reward structure reflect the general shift from annuals (generally low-reward open access flowers) to perennials (mostly high-reward and restricted access flowers) as post-fire regeneration ensues. The impact of fire on floral communities and their associated rewards have clear implications for pollinator community structure and we discuss this and the role of other disturbance factors on these systems.

Root pruning as a means to encourage root growth in two ornamental shrubs, Buddleja davidii ‘Summer Beauty’ and Cistus ‘Snow Fire'

The inability of a plant to grow roots rapidly upon transplanting is one of the main factors contributing to poor establishment. In bare-rooted trees, treatments such as root pruning or application of the plant hormone auxin [e.g., indole butyric acid (IBA)] can promote root growth and aid long-term establishment. There is little information on ornamental containerised plants, however, other than the anecdotal notion that 'teasing' the roots out of the rootsoil mass before transplanting can be beneficial. In the present study we tested the ability of various root-pruning treatments and application of IBA to encourage new root and shoot growth in two shrub species, commonly produced in containers - Buddleja davidii 'Summer Beauty' and Cistus 'Snow Fire'. In a number of experiments, young plants were exposed to root manipulation (teasing, light pruning, or two types of heavy pruning) and/or treatment with IBA (at 500 or 1,000 mg l-1) before being transplanted into larger containers containing a medium of 1:1:1 (v/v/v) fine bark, sand and loam. Leaf stomatal conductance (gl) was measured 20 min, and 1, 2, 4 and 6 h after root manipulation. Net leaf CO2 assimilation (A) was measured frequently during the first week after transplanting, then at regular intervals up to 8 weeks after transplanting. Plants were harvested 8 weeks after transplanting, and root and shoot weights were measured. In both species, light root pruning alone, or in combination with 500 mg l-1 IBA, was most effective in stimulating root growth. In contrast, teasing, which is commonly used, showed no positive effect on root growth in Buddleja, and decreased new root growth in Cistus. The requirement for exogenous auxin to encourage new root growth varied between experiments and appeared to be influenced by the age and developmental stage of the plants. There were no consistent responses between root treatments and net CO2 assimilation rates, and changes in root weight were not closely correlated with changes in assimilation. The mechanisms whereby new root growth is sustained are discussed.

Risk taking from the participant's perspective: the case of driving and accident risk

Although perceived health risk plays a prominent role in theories of health behavior, its empirical role in risk taking is less clear. In Study 1 (N = 129), 2 measures of drivers' risk-taking behavior were found to be unrelated to self-estimates of accident concern but to be related to self-ratings of driving skill and the perceived thrill of driving. In Study 2 (N = 405), out of a wide range of potential influences, accident concern had the weakest relationship with risk taking. The authors concluded that although health risk is a key feature in many theories of health behavior and a central focus for researchers and policy makers, it may not be such a prominent factor for those actually taking the risk.

Drivers' ratings of different components of their own driving skill: a greater illusion of superiority for skills that relate to accident involvement

Different components of driving skill relate to accident involvement in different ways. For instance, while hazard-perception skill has been found to predict accident involvement, vehicle-control skill has not. We found that drivers rated themselves superior to both their peers and the average driver on 18 components of driving skill (N = 181 respondents). These biases were greater for hazard-perception skills than for either vehicle-control skills or driving skill in general. Also, ratings of hazard-perception skill related to self-perceived safety after overall skill was controlled for. We suggest that although drivers appear to appreciate the role of hazard perception in safe driving, any safety benefit to be derived from this appreciation may be undermined by drivers' inflated opinions of their own hazard-perception skill. We also tested the relationship between illusory beliefs about driving skill and risk taking and looked at ways of manipulating drivers' illusory beliefs.

Motorcycle accident risk could be inflated by a time to arrival illusion

Purpose. Drivers adopt smaller safety margins when pulling out in front of motorcycles compared with cars. This could partly account for why the most common motorcycle/car accident involves a car violating a motorcyclist's right of way. One possible explanation is the size-arrival effect in which smaller objects are perceived to arrive later than larger objects. That is, drivers may estimate the time to arrival of motorcycles to be later than cars because motorcycles are smaller. Methods. We investigated arrival time judgments using a temporal occlusion paradigm. Drivers recruited from the student population (n = 28 and n = 33) saw video footage of oncoming vehicles and had to press a response button when they judged that vehicles would reach them. Results. In experiment 1, the time to arrival of motorcycles was estimated to be significantly later than larger vehicles (a car and a van) for different approach speeds and viewing times. In experiment 2, we investigated an alternative explanation to the size-arrival effect: that the smaller size of motorcycles places them below the threshold needed for observers to make an accurate time to arrival judgment using tau. We found that the motorcycle/car difference in arrival time estimates was maintained for very short occlusion durations when tau could be estimated for both motorcycles and cars. Conclusions. Results are consistent with the size-arrival effect and are inconsistent with the tau threshold explanation. Drivers estimate motorcycles will reach them later than cars across a range of conditions. This could have safety implications.