Aerosols in Amazonia: Natural Biogenic Particles and Large Scale Biomass Burning Impacts.

The Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a long term (20 years) research effort aimed at the understanding of the functioning of the Amazonian ecosystem. In particular, the strong biosphere-atmosphere interaction is a key component looking at the exchange processes between vegetation and the atmosphere, focusing on aerosol particles. Two aerosol components are the most visible: The natural biogenic emissions of aerosols and VOCs, and the biomass burning emissions. A large effort was done to characterize natural biogenic aerosols that showed detailed organic characterization and optical properties. The biomass burning component in Amazonia is important in term of aerosol and trace gases emissions, with deforestation rates decreasing, from 27,000 Km2 in 2004 to about 5,000 Km2 in 2011. Biomass burning emissions in Amazonia increases concentrations of aerosol particles, CO, ozone and other species, and also change the surface radiation balance in a significant way. Long term monitoring of aerosols and trace gases were performed in two sites: a background site in Central Amazonia, 55 Km North of Manaus (called ZF2 ecological reservation) and a monitoring station in Porto Velho, Rondonia state, a site heavily impacted by biomass burning smoke. Several instruments were operated to measured aerosol size distribution, optical properties (absorption and scattering at several wavelengths), composition of organic (OC/EC) and inorganic components among other measurements. AERONET and MODIS measurements from 5 long term sites show a large year-to year variability due to climatic and socio-economic issues. Aerosol optical depths of more than 4 at 550nm was observed frequently over biomass burning areas. In the pristine Amazonian atmosphere, aerosol scattering coefficients ranged between 1 and 200 Mm-1 at 450 nm, while absorption ranged between 1 and 20 Mm-1 at 637 nm. A strong seasonal behavior was observed, with greater aerosol loadings during the dry season (Jul-Nov) as compared to the wet season (Dec-Jun). During the wet season in Manaus, aerosol scattering (450 nm) and absorption (637 nm) coefficients averaged, respectively, 14 and 0.9 Mm-1. Angstrom exponents for scattering were lower during the wet season (1.6) in comparison to the dry season (1.9), which is consistent with the shift from biomass burning aerosols, predominant in the fine mode, to biogenic aerosols, predominant in the coarse mode. Single scattering albedo, calculated at 637 nm, did not show a significant seasonal variation, averaging 0.86. In Porto Velho, even in the wet season it was possible to observe an impact from anthropogenic aerosol. Black Carbon was measured at a high 20 ug/m³ in the dry season, showing strong aerosol absorption. This work presents a general description of the aerosol optical properties in Amazonia, both during the Amazonian wet and dry seasons.

Factors structuring Fucus communities at open and complex coastlines in the Baltic Sea

This thesis deals with physical factors and biological interactions affecting the distribution of two fucoid species, Fucus vesiculosus and F. serratus, in the Baltic Sea. Studies have been carried out in two quite different environments: an archipelago, and an open rocky coast. The archipelago has an extremely long coastline with a heterogeneous submerged landscape of different substrate types, slopes, water qualities, and degrees of wave exposure. The factors influencing F. vesiculosus distribution, morphology and epiphyte composition were studied in the Stockholm archipelago using field surveys and spatial modelling in Geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS-method to estimate wave exposure was developed and validated by comparing the result to an index based on vertical zonation of lichens. Wave exposure was considered an important factor for predicting the distribution of F. vesiculosus by its ability to clean hard surfaces from silt, and a predictive model was constructed based on the information of wave exposure and slope of the shore. It is suggested that the lower distribution boundary of attached F. vesiculosus is set by sediment in sheltered parts of the archipelago, and by light availability in highly wave exposed parts. The morphology of F. vesiculosus was studied over a wave exposure gradient, and several characters responded in accordance with earlier studies. However, when separating effects of wave exposure from effects of other confounding water property parameters, only thallus width was significantly different. Several water property parameters were shown to be correlated with wave exposure in the Stockholm archipelago, and the mechanism responsible for the effects on F. vesiculosus morphology is discussed. The composition of epiphytes on F. vesiculosus varied over a wave exposure gradient with a positive correlation to Elachista fucicola, and a negative to Chorda filum. At an open coast the physical environment is much less heterogeneous compared to an archipelago. The distributions of F. vesiculosus, F. serratus, turf-forming algae, and the seafloor substrate, were surveyed along the open coasts of Öland and Gotland. Turf-forming algae dominated all hard substrates in the area, and Polysiphonia fucoides was most abundant. At the Gotland coast F. vesiculosus was less abundant than at the Öland coast, and F. serratus occurred only in the southern-most part. Fucus serratus was increasingly more common towards south which was interpreted as an effect mainly of the Baltic salinity gradient, or the variation of salinity that has occurred in the past. The effects of turf-forming algae and sediment on F. serratus recruitment at 7 m depth off the Öland east coast were studied in the field, and by laboratory experiments. Almost no recruits were found in the algal turf outside the F. serratus patches. More fine sediment was found in the turf than in the F. serratus patches, suggesting that the turf accumulates sediment by decreasing resuspension. Both filamentous algae and sediment decreased the attachment ability of F. serratus zygotes and survival of recruits, and sediment had the strongest effect. It is therefore suggested that F. serratus has difficulties recruiting outside its patches, and that these difficulties are enforced by the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, which has favoured growth of filamentous algae and increased sedimentation. An overall conclusion is that Fucus distribution is affected by large-scale-factors, such as the eutrophication and salinity changes of the Baltic Sea, as well as by small-scale variation in wave exposure, substrate and slope, and by surface competition with neighbouring species.

A scale-space aproach to nonlocal optical flow calculations

[EN] This paper presents an interpretation of a classic optical flow method by Nagel and Enkelmann as a tensor-driven anisotropic diffusion approach in digital image analysis. We introduce an improvement into the model formulation, and we establish well-posedness results for the resulting system of parabolic partial differential equations. Our method avoids linearizations in the optical flow constraint, and it can recover displacement fields which are far beyond the typical one-pixel limits that are characteristic for many differential methods for optical flow recovery. A robust numerical scheme is presented in detail. We avoid convergence to irrelevant local minima by embedding our method into a linear scale-space framework and using a focusing strategy from coarse to fine scales. The high accuracy of the proposed method is demonstrated by means of a synthetic and a real-world image sequence.

A tuple space implementation for large-scale infrastructures

Coordinating activities in a distributed system is an open research topic. Several models have been proposed to achieve this purpose such as message passing, publish/subscribe, workflows or tuple spaces. We have focused on the latter model, trying to overcome some of its disadvantages. In particular we have applied spatial database techniques to tuple spaces in order to increase their performance when handling a large number of tuples. Moreover, we have studied how structured peer to peer approaches can be applied to better distribute tuples on large networks. Using some of these result, we have developed a tuple space implementation for the Globus Toolkit that can be used by Grid applications as a coordination service. The development of such a service has been quite challenging due to the limitations imposed by XML serialization that have heavily influenced its design. Nevertheless, we were able to complete its implementation and use it to implement two different types of test applications: a completely parallelizable one and a plasma simulation that is not completely parallelizable. Using this last application we have compared the performance of our service against MPI. Finally, we have developed and tested a simple workflow in order to show the versatility of our service.

Measure of Global Specialization and Spatial Clustering for the Identification of "Specialized" Agglomeration

The intensity of regional specialization in specific activities, and conversely, the level of industrial concentration in specific locations, has been used as a complementary evidence for the existence and significance of externalities. Additionally, economists have mainly focused the debate on disentangling the sources of specialization and concentration processes according to three vectors: natural advantages, internal, and external scale economies. The arbitrariness of partitions plays a key role in capturing these effects, while the selection of the partition would have to reflect the actual characteristics of the economy. Thus, the identification of spatial boundaries to measure specialization becomes critical, since most likely the model will be adapted to different scales of distance, and be influenced by different types of externalities or economies of agglomeration, which are based on the mechanisms of interaction with particular requirements of spatial proximity. This work is based on the analysis of the spatial aspect of economic specialization supported by the manufacturing industry case. The main objective is to propose, for discrete and continuous space: i) a measure of global specialization; ii) a local disaggregation of the global measure; and iii) a spatial clustering method for the identification of specialized agglomerations.

Spatial and temporal variation in settlement, growth and condition of the rockfish species Sebastes caurinus and Sebastes carnatus in the Channel Islands region, Santa Barbara, CA

Survival during the early life stages of marine species, including nearshore temperate reef fishes, is typically very low, and small changes in mortality rates, due to physiological and environmental conditions, can have marked effects on survival of a cohort and, on a larger scale, on the success of a recruitment season. Moreover, trade offs between larval growth and accumulation of energetic resources prior to settlement are likely to influence growth and survival until this critical period and afterwards. Rockfish recruitment rates are notoriously variable between years and across geographic locations. Monitoring of rates of onshore delivery of pelagic juveniles (defined here as settlement) of two species of nearshore rockfishes, Sebastes caurinus and Sebastes carnatus, was done between 2003-2009 years using artificial collectors placed at San Miguel and Santa Cruz Island, off Southern California coast. I investigated spatiotemporal variation in settlement rate, lipid content, pelagic larval duration and larval growth of the newly settled fishes; I assessed relationships between birth date, larval growth, early life-history characteristics and lipid content at settlement, considering also interspecific differences; finally, I attempt to relate interannual patterns of settlement and of early life history traits to easily accessible, local and regional indices of ocean conditions including in situ ocean temperature and regional upwelling, sea surface temperature (SST) and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration. Spatial variations appeared to be of low relevance, while significant interannual differences were detected in settlement rate, pelagic larval duration and larval growth. The amount of lipid content of the newly settled fishes was highly variable in space and time, but did not differ between the two species and did not show any relationships with early life history traits, indicating that no trade off involved these physiological processes or they were masked by high individual variability in different periods of larval life. Significant interspecific differences were found in the timing of parturition and settlement and in larval growth rates, with S. carnatus growing faster and breeding and settling later than S. caurinus. The two species exhibited also different patterns of correlations between larval growth rates and larval duration. S. carnatus larval duration was longer when the growth in the first two weeks post-hatch was faster, while S. caurinus had a shorter larval duration when grew fast in the middle and in the end of larval life, suggesting different larval strategies. Fishes with longer larval durations were longer in size at settlement and exhibited longer planktonic phase in periods of favourable environmental conditions. Ocean conditions had a low explanatory power for interannual variation in early life history traits, but a very high explanatory power for settlement fluctuations, with regional upwelling strength being the principal indicator. Nonetheless, interannual variability in larval duration and growth were related to great phenological changes in upwelling happened during the period of this study and that caused negative consequences at all trophic levels along the California coast. Despite the low explanatory power of the environmental variables used in this study on the variation of larval biological traits, environmental processes were differently related with early life history characteristics analyzed to species, indicating possible species-specific susceptibility to ocean conditions and local environmental adaptation, which should be further investigated. These results have implications for understanding the processes influencing larval and juvenile survival, and consequently recruitment variability, which may be dependent on biological characteristics and environmental conditions.

Modellazione di processo in impianti di depurazione urbana finalizzata allo sviluppo di linee guida progettuali. Simulazioni e confronti su dati HERA full - scale.

Gli impianti di depurazione rappresentano, nei contesti urbani, elementi di imprescindibile importanza nell’ambito di una corretta gestione e tutela della risorsa idrica e dell’ambiente. Il crescente grado di antropizzazione delle aree urbanizzate e parallelamente le sempre minori disponibilità in termini di spazi utilizzabili a fini depurativi comportano sempre di più la necessità di ottimizzare i processi di dimensionamento degli impianti. Inoltre, l’obiettivo di aumentare l’efficienza del ciclo depurativo andando a minimizzare i costi correlati alla gestione degli stessi indirizza verso una omogeneizzazione nei criteri di dimensionamento adottati. In questo senso, la normativa tecnica di settore risulta carente, andandosi a concentrare prevalentemente sul rispetto di fissati standard ambientali senza però fornire indicazioni precise sui criteri di progettazione da adottare per perseguire tali standard. La letteratura scientifica pur indicando range di possibili valori di riferimento da adottare, nel dimensionamento degli impianti, lascia un ampio margine di discrezionalità al progettista. La presente tesi si pone pertanto, a partire da tali valori di letteratura, di andare a definire da un lato le caratteristiche quali-quantitative del refluo in ingresso e dall’altro i valori di riferimento da adottare in sede di progettazione per perseguire gli obiettivi precedentemente indicati. La prima parte, di valenza generale, oltre alla caratterizzazione dell’influente descrive nel dettaglio le diverse fasi del processo e il loro dimensionamento che in tutte le sezioni, ad eccezione del biologico, viene effettuato attraverso equazioni semplificate mettendo a confronto e analizzando i parametri progettuali proposti da letteratura. Per quanto riguarda il comparto biologico la maggior complessità del fenomeno da descrivere rende difficile la valutazione delle grandezze che caratterizzano il funzionamento mediante l’utilizzo di equazioni semplificate. Per questo si è deciso di modellare questo comparto, unito a quello della sedimentazione, attraverso un software (WEST) che permette non solo di simulare il processo ma anche, attraverso le analisi di scenario, di determinare quelli che sono i valori progettuali puntuali che consentono di ottenere da un lato una minimizzazione dei costi dell’impianto, sia costruttivi che gestionali, e dall’altro la massimizzazione delle rese depurative. Nello specifico si è fatto riferimento ad impianto fanghi attivi a schema semplificato con potenzialità fissata pari a 10000 AE. Il confronto con i dati di esercizio di alcuni impianti di analoga tipologia ha evidenziato che una buona capacità dello strumento di modellazione utilizzato di descrivere i processi. E’ possibile quindi concludere che tali strumenti, affiancati ad una lettura critica dei risultati ottenuti possono essere ottimi strumenti di supporto sia in fase di progettazione che in prospettiva di gestione dell’impianto al fine di ottimizzare i processi e quindi i costi.

Novel tools for conservation genetics in marine fish: population structure and evolution of the European hake (Merluccius merluccius) inferred by SNP variation and applications to traceability

The research presented in my PhD thesis is part of a wider European project, FishPopTrace, focused on traceability of fish populations and products. My work was aimed at developing and analyzing novel genetic tools for a widely distributed marine fish species, the European hake (Merluccius merluccius), in order to investigate population genetic structure and explore potential applications to traceability scenarios. A total of 395 SNPs (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms) were discovered from a massive collection of Expressed Sequence Tags, obtained by high-throughput sequencing, and validated on 19 geographic samples from Atlantic and Mediterranean. Genome-scan approaches were applied to identify polymorphisms on genes potentially under divergent selection (outlier SNPs), showing higher genetic differentiation among populations respect to the average observed across loci. Comparative analysis on population structure were carried out on putative neutral and outlier loci at wide (Atlantic and Mediterranean samples) and regional (samples within each basin) spatial scales, to disentangle the effects of demographic and adaptive evolutionary forces on European hake populations genetic structure. Results demonstrated the potential of outlier loci to unveil fine scale genetic structure, possibly identifying locally adapted populations, despite the weak signal showed from putative neutral SNPs. The application of outlier SNPs within the framework of fishery resources management was also explored. A minimum panel of SNP markers showing maximum discriminatory power was selected and applied to a traceability scenario aiming at identifying the basin (and hence the stock) of origin, Atlantic or Mediterranean, of individual fish. This case study illustrates how molecular analytical technologies have operational potential in real-world contexts, and more specifically, potential to support fisheries control and enforcement and fish and fish product traceability.

Micro-simulation models at neighbourhood scale: the interplay of agents, buildings, activities and transport.

Urban systems consist of several interlinked sub-systems - social, economic, institutional and environmental – each representing a complex system of its own and affecting all the others at various structural and functional levels. An urban system is represented by a number of “human” agents, such as individuals and households, and “non-human” agents, such as buildings, establishments, transports, vehicles and infrastructures. These two categories of agents interact among them and simultaneously produce impact on the system they interact with. Try to understand the type of interactions, their spatial and temporal localisation to allow a very detailed simulation trough models, turn out to be a great effort and is the topic this research deals with. An analysis of urban system complexity is here presented and a state of the art review about the field of urban models is provided. Finally, six international models - MATSim, MobiSim, ANTONIN, TRANSIMS, UrbanSim, ILUTE - are illustrated and then compared.

Un modello multicriteriale di supporto alla pianificazione territoriale finalizzato alla classificazione del territorio rurale e alla caratterizzazione dell’Impronta Agro ambientale delle aree agricole periurbane.

La ricerca proposta si pone l’obiettivo di definire e sperimentare un metodo per un’articolata e sistematica lettura del territorio rurale, che, oltre ad ampliare la conoscenza del territorio, sia di supporto ai processi di pianificazione paesaggistici ed urbanistici e all’attuazione delle politiche agricole e di sviluppo rurale. Un’approfondita disamina dello stato dell’arte riguardante l’evoluzione del processo di urbanizzazione e le conseguenze dello stesso in Italia e in Europa, oltre che del quadro delle politiche territoriali locali nell’ambito del tema specifico dello spazio rurale e periurbano, hanno reso possibile, insieme a una dettagliata analisi delle principali metodologie di analisi territoriale presenti in letteratura, la determinazione del concept alla base della ricerca condotta. E’ stata sviluppata e testata una metodologia multicriteriale e multilivello per la lettura del territorio rurale sviluppata in ambiente GIS, che si avvale di algoritmi di clustering (quale l’algoritmo IsoCluster) e classificazione a massima verosimiglianza, focalizzando l’attenzione sugli spazi agricoli periurbani. Tale metodo si incentra sulla descrizione del territorio attraverso la lettura di diverse componenti dello stesso, quali quelle agro-ambientali e socio-economiche, ed opera una sintesi avvalendosi di una chiave interpretativa messa a punto allo scopo, l’Impronta Agroambientale (Agro-environmental Footprint - AEF), che si propone di quantificare il potenziale impatto degli spazi rurali sul sistema urbano. In particolare obiettivo di tale strumento è l’identificazione nel territorio extra-urbano di ambiti omogenei per caratteristiche attraverso una lettura del territorio a differenti scale (da quella territoriale a quella aziendale) al fine di giungere ad una sua classificazione e quindi alla definizione delle aree classificabili come “agricole periurbane”. La tesi propone la presentazione dell’architettura complessiva della metodologia e la descrizione dei livelli di analisi che la compongono oltre che la successiva sperimentazione e validazione della stessa attraverso un caso studio rappresentativo posto nella Pianura Padana (Italia).

Marine biodiversity survey in the Northern Red Sea: a large-scale monitoring carried out in collaboration with volunteer divers

Concerns over global change and its effect on coral reef survivorship have highlighted the need for long-term datasets and proxy records, to interpret environmental trends and inform policymakers. Citizen science programs have showed to be a valid method for collecting data, reducing financial and time costs for institutions. This study is based on the elaboration of data collected by recreational divers and its main purpose is to evaluate changes in the state of coral reef biodiversity in the Red Sea over a long term period and validate the volunteer-based monitoring method. Volunteers recreational divers completed a questionnaire after each dive, recording the presence of 72 animal taxa and negative reef conditions. Comparisons were made between records from volunteers and independent records from a marine biologist who performed the same dive at the same time. A total of 500 volunteers were tested in 78 validation trials. Relative values of accuracy, reliability and similarity seem to be comparable to those performed by volunteer divers on precise transects in other projects, or in community-based terrestrial monitoring. 9301 recreational divers participated in the monitoring program, completing 23,059 survey questionnaires in a 5-year period. The volunteer-sightings-based index showed significant differences between the geographical areas. The area of Hurghada is distinguished by a medium-low biodiversity index, heavily damaged by a not controlled anthropic exploitation. Coral reefs along the Ras Mohammed National Park at Sharm el Sheikh, conversely showed high biodiversity index. The detected pattern seems to be correlated with the conservation measures adopted. In our experience and that of other research institutes, citizen science can integrate conventional methods and significantly reduce costs and time. Involving recreational divers we were able to build a large data set, covering a wide geographic area. The main limitation remains the difficulty of obtaining an homogeneous spatial sampling distribution.

Aspetti di sostenibilità in agricoltura a diverse scale spaziali e temporali. Valutazioni ambientali, economiche ed energetiche.

La Tesi analizza le relazioni tra i processi di sviluppo agricolo e l’uso delle risorse naturali, in particolare di quelle energetiche, a livello internazionale (paesi in via di sviluppo e sviluppati), nazionale (Italia), regionale (Emilia Romagna) e aziendale, con lo scopo di valutare l’eco-efficienza dei processi di sviluppo agricolo, la sua evoluzione nel tempo e le principali dinamiche in relazione anche ai problemi di dipendenza dalle risorse fossili, della sicurezza alimentare, della sostituzione tra superfici agricole dedicate all’alimentazione umana ed animale. Per i due casi studio a livello macroeconomico è stata adottata la metodologia denominata “SUMMA” SUstainability Multi-method, multi-scale Assessment (Ulgiati et al., 2006), che integra una serie di categorie d’impatto dell’analisi del ciclo di vita, LCA, valutazioni costi-benefici e la prospettiva di analisi globale della contabilità emergetica. L’analisi su larga scala è stata ulteriormente arricchita da un caso studio sulla scala locale, di una fattoria produttrice di latte e di energia elettrica rinnovabile (fotovoltaico e biogas). Lo studio condotto mediante LCA e valutazione contingente ha valutato gli effetti ambientali, economici e sociali di scenari di riduzione della dipendenza dalle fonti fossili. I casi studio a livello macroeconomico dimostrano che, nonostante le politiche di supporto all’aumento di efficienza e a forme di produzione “verdi”, l’agricoltura a livello globale continua ad evolvere con un aumento della sua dipendenza dalle fonti energetiche fossili. I primi effetti delle politiche agricole comunitarie verso una maggiore sostenibilità sembrano tuttavia intravedersi per i Paesi Europei. Nel complesso la energy footprint si mantiene alta poiché la meccanizzazione continua dei processi agricoli deve necessariamente attingere da fonti energetiche sostitutive al lavoro umano. Le terre agricole diminuiscono nei paesi europei analizzati e in Italia aumentando i rischi d’insicurezza alimentare giacché la popolazione nazionale sta invece aumentando.

The genetic history of Italians: new-insights from uniparentally-inherited markers

Genetic differences among human groups can be ascribed both to the broad-scale extents of pre-historical and historical migrations and to the fine-scale impacts of socio-cultural and geographic heterogeneity. In this thesis, the genetic information provided by uniparental markers were exploited to address different aspects of the Italian population history, by combining macro- and micro-geographic investigations at different spatial and temporal scales. To firstly assess the overall Italian variability, Y-chromosome and mtDNA markers were deeply typed in ~900 individuals from continental Italy, Sicily and Sardinia. Sex-biased patterns and contrasting demographic histories were observed for males and females. Differential European and Mediterranean contributions were invoked to explain the paternal genetic sub-structure observed in peninsular Italy, compared to the homogeneous maternal genetic landscape. If Neolithic showed to be one principal determinant of the detected paternal structure, local insights into specific Italian regional contexts highlighted the importance of Post-Neolithic contributions. Among them, migrations from the Balkans (particularly Greece) during late Metal Ages, played a relevant role in the cultural and genetic transitions occurred in Sicily and Southern Italy. On a finer geographic and temporal perspective, the more recent layers of Italian genetic history and some aspects of the gene-culture interaction were assessed by exploring the genetic variability within two “marginal populations”: Arbereshe of Southern Italy and Partecipanza in Northern Italy. The Arbereshe are Albanian-speaking communities settled in Sicily and Calabria since the end of Middle Ages. Despite sharing common genetic and cultural backgrounds, these groups revealed diverging micro-evolutionary histories, implying different founding events and different patterns of cultural isolation and local admixture. Partecipanza is an idiosyncratic institution of Medieval origin aimed at sharing and devolving collective lands. This case-study exemplified that socio-economic stratification within the same population may induce sex-biased genetic structuring and the maintenance of otherwise hidden historical genetic traces.

Valutazione della stabilita motoria in soggetti anziani attraverso misure strumentali e scale cliniche

Il rischio di caduta durante la deambulazione aumenta con l'età; le cadute comportano costi elevati per l’assistenza sanitaria ed hanno un influenza critica sullo stato di salute dell'anziano. La valutazione della stabilità del cammino rappresenta un aspetto fondamentale per la definizione di un indice del rischio di caduta. Diverse misure di variabilità e stabilità del cammino sono state proposte in letteratura con l'obiettivo di ottenere una standardizzazione metodologica e risultati affidabili, ripetibili e facilmente interpretabili. Queste misure andrebbero ad integrare, o sostituire, le scale cliniche, unico metodo attualmente in uso ma la cui affidabilità è limitata in quanto fortemente dipendente dall’operatore. Il fine ultimo è quello di definire un indice del rischio di caduta specifico per il soggetto. Gli obiettivi della tesi comprendono la valutazione della ripetibilità in dipendenza dalla lunghezza del trial di una serie di misure di variabilità e stabilità applicate al cammino di soggetti anziani, la valutazione della correlazione fra queste misure di variabilità e stabilità e il risultato delle scale cliniche e la valutazione della correlazione fra queste misure di variabilità e stabilità e la storia di caduta dei soggetti. Per fare questo si sono somministrati alcuni questionari e schede di valutazione funzionale (CIRS, Barthel, Mini-BESTest) a 70 soggetti di età superiore a 65 anni. Questi hanno eseguito inoltre una camminata lungo un tratto rettilineo di circa 100 m di lunghezza; il relativo segnale accelerometrico è stato registrato mediante sensori inerziali. Il risultato generale ottenuto è che alcune misure di stabilità come la MSE e la RQA, già in passato risultate legate alla storia di cadute, mostrano promettenti performance per la definizione del rischio di caduta.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.