Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.

A critical analysis of three psychological research programs of doping behaviour

Objectives To consider the various specific substances-taking activities in sport an examination of three psychological models of doping behaviour utilised by researchers is presented in order to evaluate their real and potential impact, and to improve the relevance and efficiency of anti-doping campaigns. Design Adopting the notion of a "research program" (Lakatos, 1978) from the philosophy of science, a range of studies into the psychology of doping behaviour are classified and critically analysed. Method Theoretical and practical parameters of three research programs are critically evaluated (i) cognitive; (ii) drive; and (iii) situated-dynamic. Results The analysis reveals the diversity of theoretical commitments of the research programs and their practical consequences. The «cognitive program» assumes that athletes are accountable for their acts that reflect the endeavour to attain sporting and non-sporting goals. Attitudes, knowledge and rational decisions are understood to be the basis of doping behaviour. The «drive program» characterises the variety of traces and consequences on psychological and somatic states coming from athlete's experience with sport. Doping behaviour here is conceived of as a solution to reduce unconscious psychological and somatic distress. The «situated-dynamic program» considers a broader context of athletes' doping activity and its evolution during a sport career. Doping is considered as emergent and self-organized behaviour, grounded on temporally critical couplings between athletes' actions and situations and the specific dynamics of their development during the sporting life course. Conclusions These hypothetical, theoretical and methodological considerations offer a more nuanced understanding of doping behaviours, making an effective contribution to anti-doping education and research by enabling researchers and policy personnel to become more critically reflective about their explicit and implicit assumptions regarding models of explanations for doping behaviour.

Single cell analysis reveals similar functional competence of dominant and non-dominant CD8 T-cell clonotypes

The properties of CD8 T-cells requiredfor protection from infectiousdisease and cancer are only partiallycharacterized, and only limited data isavailable regarding T-cell clonotypes.It has been proposed that dominantT-cell clonotypes may have higherprotective potential than their nondominantcounterparts. Our objectiveswere to assess memory andeffector functions, stage of differentiationand clonotype selection of tumor-reactive T lymphocytes followingpeptide vaccination in melanomapatients.We also characterized dominantversus non-dominant clonotypesto further understand the in vivo functionof these T-cells based on theirprevalence. Using a novel single-cellapproach for simultaneous ex vivomolecular and functional analysis, wereport the preferential selection andexpansion of several tumor-specificco-dominant clonotypes of intermediateto high frequencies, irrespectiveof whether native or analog peptidewas used for vaccination. Theseclonotypes made up 40 - 95% of thedifferentiated "effector-like" T-cells,but only 25% of the less-differentiated"effector-memory" cells. Bothsubsets also contained non-dominantT-cell clonotypes, but these were significantlymore frequent in the lessdifferentiatedcells. Thus, cell differentiationwas clonotype-dependent.Surprisingly however, the acquisitionof memory and effector T-cell propertieswas clonotype independent, as wefound similar functional profiles indominant and low/ non-dominantT-cell clonotypes. In contrast to analogpeptide vaccination, native peptidevaccination induced T-cell functionsthat were more comprehensive,with more pronounced effector functionscombined with memory cellproperties. In summary, this study revealsthat T-cell functions are determinedprimarily by the antigen andthe stage of T-cell differentiation, butare similar in dominant and non-dominantclonotypes participating in aCD8 T-cell response. The identifiedclonotypic basis of T-cell responsescontributes to the rational developmentof vaccines.

Pharmacogenetics-based population pharmacokinetic analysis of etravirine in HIV-1 infected individuals.

OBJECTIVES: Etravirine (ETV) is metabolized by cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A, 2C9, and 2C19. Metabolites are glucuronidated by uridine diphosphate glucuronosyltransferases (UGT). To identify the potential impact of genetic and non-genetic factors involved in ETV metabolism, we carried out a two-step pharmacogenetics-based population pharmacokinetic study in HIV-1 infected individuals. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study population included 144 individuals contributing 289 ETV plasma concentrations and four individuals contributing 23 ETV plasma concentrations collected in a rich sampling design. Genetic variants [n=125 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)] in 34 genes with a predicted role in ETV metabolism were selected. A first step population pharmacokinetic model included non-genetic and known genetic factors (seven SNPs in CYP2C, one SNP in CYP3A5) as covariates. Post-hoc individual ETV clearance (CL) was used in a second (discovery) step, in which the effect of the remaining 98 SNPs in CYP3A, P450 cytochrome oxidoreductase (POR), nuclear receptor genes, and UGTs was investigated. RESULTS: A one-compartment model with zero-order absorption best characterized ETV pharmacokinetics. The average ETV CL was 41 (l/h) (CV 51.1%), the volume of distribution was 1325 l, and the mean absorption time was 1.2 h. The administration of darunavir/ritonavir or tenofovir was the only non-genetic covariate influencing ETV CL significantly, resulting in a 40% [95% confidence interval (CI): 13-69%] and a 42% (95% CI: 17-68%) increase in ETV CL, respectively. Carriers of rs4244285 (CYP2C19*2) had 23% (8-38%) lower ETV CL. Co-administered antiretroviral agents and genetic factors explained 16% of the variance in ETV concentrations. None of the SNPs in the discovery step influenced ETV CL. CONCLUSION: ETV concentrations are highly variable, and co-administered antiretroviral agents and genetic factors explained only a modest part of the interindividual variability in ETV elimination. Opposing effects of interacting drugs effectively abrogate genetic influences on ETV CL, and vice-versa.

Genetic analysis of aluminum tolerance in Brazilian barleys

Aluminum (Al) toxicity is a major factor limiting barley growth in acid soils, and genotypes with adequate level of tolerance are needed for improving barley adaptation in Brazil. To study the inheritance of Al tolerance in Brazilian barleys, cultivars Antarctica 1, BR 1 and FM 404 were crossed to sensitive Kearney and PFC 8026, and intercrossed. Parental, F1, F2 and F6 generations were grown in nutrient solution containing 0.03, 0.05 and 0.07 mM of Al and classified for tolerance by the root tip hematoxylin staining assay. Tolerant by sensitive F2 progenies segregated three tolerant to one sensitive, fitting the 3:1 ratio expected for a single gene. The F6 populations segregated one tolerant to one sensitive also fitting a monogenic ratio. The F2 seedlings from crosses among tolerant genotypes scored the same as the parents. Since the population size used would allow detection of recombination as low as 7%, the complete absence of Al sensitive recombinants suggests that tolerance in these cultivars is most probably, controlled by the same gene. Thus, the potential for improving Al tolerance through recombination of these genotypes is very low and different gene sources should be evaluated.

Complete nucleotide sequence of Birmingham IncP alpha plasmids. Compilation and comparative analysis.

The IncP alpha promiscuous plasmid (R18, R68, RK2, RP1 and RP4) comprises 60,099 bp of nucleotide sequence, encoding at least 74 genes. About 40 kb of the genome, designated the IncP core and including all essential replication and transfer functions, can be aligned with equivalent sequences in the IncP beta plasmid R751. The compiled IncP alpha sequence revealed several previously unidentified reading frames that are potential genes. IncP alpha plasmids carry genetic information very efficiently: the coding sequences of the genes are closely packed but rarely overlap, and occupy almost 86% of the genome's nucleotide sequence. All of the 74 genes should be expressed, although there is as yet experimental evidence for expression of only 60 of them. Six examples of tandem-in-frame initiation sites specifying two gene products each are known. Two overlapping gene arrangements occupy different reading frames of the same region. Intergenic regions include most of the 25 promoters; transcripts are usually polycistronic. Translation of most of the open reading frames seems to be initiated independently, each from its own ribosomal binding and initiation site, although, a few cases of coupled translation have been reported. The most frequently used initiation codon is AUG but translation for a few open reading frames begins at GUG or UUG. The most common stop-codon is UGA followed by UAA and then UAG. Regulatory circuits are complex and largely dependent on two components of the central control operon. KorA and KorB are transcriptional repressors controlling at least seven operons. KorA and KorB act synergistically in several cases by recognizing and binding to conserved nucleotide sequences. Twelve KorB binding sites were found around the IncP alpha sequence and these are conserved in R751 (IncP beta) with respect to both sequence and location. Replication of IncP alpha plasmids requires oriV and the plasmid-encoded initiator protein TrfA in combination with the host-encoded replication machinery. Conjugative plasmid transfer depends on two separate regions occupying about half of the genome. The primary segregational stability system designated Par/Mrs consists of a putative site-specific recombinase, a possible partitioning apparatus and a post-segregational lethality mechanism, all encoded in two divergent operons. Proteins related to the products of F sop and P1 par partitioning genes are separately encoded in the central control operon.

Deoxyribonucleic acid content as an indicator of progression of squamous cell carcinogenesis in the esophagus: comparative analysis on imprint-cytospin and tissue section preparation.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to explore the potential use of image analysis on tissue sections preparation as a predictive marker of early malignant changes during squamous cell (SC) carcinogenesis in the esophagus. Results of DNA ploidy quantification on formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue using two different techniques were compared: imprint-cytospin and 6 microm thick tissue sections preparation. METHODS: This retrospective study included 26 surgical specimens of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) from patients who underwent surgery alone at the Department of Surgery in CHUV Hospital in Lausanne between January 1993 and December 2000. We analyzed 53 samples of healthy tissue, 43 tumors and 7 lymph node metastases. RESULTS: Diploid DNA histogram patterns were observed in all histologically healthy tissues, either distant or proximal to the lesion. Aneuploidy was observed in 34 (79%) of 43 carcinomas, namely 24 (75%) of 32 early squamous cell carcinomas and 10 (91%) of 11 advanced carcinomas. DNA content was similar in the different tumor stages, whether patients presented with single or multiple synchronous tumors. All lymph node metastases had similar DNA content as their primary tumor. CONCLUSIONS: Early malignant changes in the esophagus are associated with alteration in DNA content, and aneuploidy tends to correlate with progression of invasive SCC. A very good correlation between imprint-cytospin and tissue section analysis was observed. Although each method used here showed advantages and disadvantages; tissue sections preparation provided useful information on aberrant cell-cycle regulation and helped select the optimal treatment for the individual patient along with consideration of other clinical parameters.

Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

Is use of nifurtimox for the treatment of Chagas disease compatible with breast feeding? A population pharmacokinetics analysis.

Introduction Women with Chagas disease receiving treatment with nifurtimox are discouraged from breast feeding. Many patients who would receive treatment with nifurtimox live in extreme poverty, have limited access to resources such as clean water and baby formula and may not have safe alternatives to breast milk. Aim We aimed to estimate, using limited available pharmacokinetics data, potential infant exposure to nifurtimox through breast milk. Methods Original nifurtimox plasma concentrations were obtained from published studies. Pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated using non-linear mixed-effect modelling with NONMEM V.VI. A total of 1000 nifurtimox plasma-concentration profiles were simulated and used to calculate the amount of drug that an infant would be exposed to, if breast fed 150 ml/kg/day. Results Breast milk concentrations on the basis of peak plasma levels (1361 ng/ml) and milk-plasma ratio were estimated. We calculated infant nifurtimox exposure of a breastfed infant of a mother treated with this drug to be below 10% of the maternal weight-adjusted dose, even if milk-plasma ratio were overestimated. Simulation led to similar estimates. Discussion Risk for significant infant exposure to nifurtimox through breast milk seems small and below the level of exposure of infants with Chagas disease receiving nifurtimox treatment. This potential degree of exposure may not justify discontinuation of breast feeding.

Chances and limits of method restriction: a detailed analysis of suicide methods in Switzerland.

The objective of this study was to estimate the potential of method restriction as a public health strategy in suicide prevention. Data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and the Swiss Institutes of Forensic Medicine from 2004 were gathered and categorized into suicide submethods according to accessibility to restriction of means. Of suicides in Switzerland, 39.2% are accessible to method restriction. The highest proportions were found in private weapons (13.2%), army weapons (10.4%), and jumps from hot-spots (4.6%). The presented method permits the estimation of the suicide prevention potential of a country by method restriction and the comparison of restriction potentials between suicide methods. In Switzerland, reduction of firearm suicides has the highest potential to reduce the total number of suicides.

Analysis of Safety Benefits for Shielding of Bridge Piers, 2009

The highway system in the State of Iowa includes many grade separation structures constructed to provide maximum safety and mobility to road users on intersecting roadways. However, these structures can present possible safety concerns for traffic passing underneath due to close proximity of piers and abutments. Shielding of these potential hazards has been a design consideration for many years. This study examines historical crash experience in the State of Iowa to address the advisability of shielding bridge piers and abutments as well as other structure support elements considering the offset from the traveled way. A survey of nine Midwestern states showed that six states had bridge pier shielding practices consistent with those in Iowa. Data used for the analyses include crash data (2001 to 2007) from the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT), the Iowa DOT’s Geographic Information Management System (GIMS) structure and roadway data (2006) obtained from the Office of Transportation Data, and shielding and offset data for the bridges of interest. Additionally, original crash reports and the Iowa DOT video log were also utilized as needed. Grade-separated structures over high-speed, multilane divided Interstate and primary highways were selected for analysis, including 566 bridges over roadways with a speed limit of at least 45 mph. Bridges that met the criteria for inclusion in the study were identified for further analysis using crash data. The study also included economic analysis for possible shielding improvement.

On the Selection of Non-Invasive Methods Based on Speech Analysis Oriented to Automatic Alzheimer Disease Diagnosis

The work presented here is part of a larger study to identify novel technologies and biomarkers for early Alzheimer disease (AD) detection and it focuses on evaluating the suitability of a new approach for early AD diagnosis by non-invasive methods. The purpose is to examine in a pilot study the potential of applying intelligent algorithms to speech features obtained from suspected patients in order to contribute to the improvement of diagnosis of AD and its degree of severity. In this sense, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been used for the automatic classification of the two classes (AD and control subjects). Two human issues have been analyzed for feature selection: Spontaneous Speech and Emotional Response. Not only linear features but also non-linear ones, such as Fractal Dimension, have been explored. The approach is non invasive, low cost and without any side effects. Obtained experimental results were very satisfactory and promising for early diagnosis and classification of AD patients.

On Automatic Diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease based on Spontaneous Speech Analysis and Emotional Temperature

Alzheimer's disease is the most prevalent form of progressive degenerative dementia; it has a high socio-economic impact in Western countries. Therefore it is one of the most active research areas today. Alzheimer's is sometimes diagnosed by excluding other dementias, and definitive confirmation is only obtained through a post-mortem study of the brain tissue of the patient. The work presented here is part of a larger study that aims to identify novel technologies and biomarkers for early Alzheimer's disease detection, and it focuses on evaluating the suitability of a new approach for early diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease by non-invasive methods. The purpose is to examine, in a pilot study, the potential of applying Machine Learning algorithms to speech features obtained from suspected Alzheimer sufferers in order help diagnose this disease and determine its degree of severity. Two human capabilities relevant in communication have been analyzed for feature selection: Spontaneous Speech and Emotional Response. The experimental results obtained were very satisfactory and promising for the early diagnosis and classification of Alzheimer’s disease patients.

Traffic Safety Analysis for Local Agencies, 2012

Although many larger Iowa cities have staff traffic engineers who have a dedicated interest in safety, smaller jurisdictions do not. Rural agencies and small communities must rely on consultants, if available, or local staff to identify locations with a high number of crashes and to devise mitigating measures. However, smaller agencies in Iowa have other available options to receive assistance in obtaining and interpreting crash data. These options are addressed in this manual. Many proposed road improvements or alternatives can be evaluated using methods that do not require in-depth engineering analysis. The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) supported developing this manual to provide a tool that assists communities and rural agencies in identifying and analyzing local roadway-related traffic safety concerns. In the past, a limited number of traffic safety professionals had access to adequate tools and training to evaluate potential safety problems quickly and efficiently and select possible solutions. Present-day programs and information are much more conducive to the widespread dissemination of crash data, mapping, data comparison, and alternative selections and comparisons. Information is available and in formats that do not require specialized training to understand and use. This manual describes several methods for reviewing crash data at a given location, identifying possible contributing causes, selecting countermeasures, and conducting economic analyses for the proposed mitigation. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has also developed other analysis tools, which are described in the manual. This manual can also serve as a reference for traffic engineers and other analysts.

Concrete Pavement Mixture Design and Analysis (MDA): Evaluation of Foam Drainage Test to Measure Air Void Stability in Concrete

The stability of air bubbles in fresh concrete can have a profound influence of the potential durability of the system, because excessive losses during placement and consolidation can compromise the ability of the mixture to resist freezing and thawing. The stability of air void systems developed by some air entraining admixtures (AEAs) could be affected by the presence of some polycarboxylate-based water reducing admixtures (WRAs). The foam drainage test provides a means of measuring the potential stability of air bubbles in a paste. A barrier to acceptance of the test was that there was little investigation of the correlation with field performance. The work reported here was a limited exercise seeking to observe the stability of a range of currently available AEA/WRA combinations in the foam drainage test; then, to take the best and the worst and observe their stabilities on concrete mixtures in the lab. Based on the data collected, the foam drainage test appears to identify stable combinations of AEA and WRA.