Cold and heat waves in the United States

Extreme cold and heat waves, characterised by a number of cold or hot days in succession, place a strain on people’s cardiovascular and respiratory systems. The increase in deaths due to these waves may be greater than that predicted by extreme temperatures alone. We examined cold and heat waves in 99 US cities for 14 years (1987–2000) and investigated how the risk of death depended on the temperature threshold used to define a wave, and a wave’s timing, duration and intensity. We defined cold and heat waves using temperatures above and below cold and heat thresholds for two or more days. We tried five cold thresholds using the first to fifth percentiles of temperature, and five heat thresholds using the ninety-fifth to ninety-ninth percentiles. The extra wave effects were estimated using a two-stage model to ensure that their effects were estimated after removing the general effects of temperature. The increases in deaths associated with cold waves were generally small and not statistically significant, and there was even evidence of a decreased risk during the coldest waves. Heat waves generally increased the risk of death, particularly for the hottest heat threshold. Cold waves of a colder intensity or longer duration were not more dangerous. Cold waves earlier in the cool season were more dangerous, as were heat waves earlier in the warm season. In general there was no increased risk of death during cold waves above the known increased risk associated with cold temperatures. Cold or heat waves earlier in the cool or warm season may be more dangerous because of a build up in the susceptible pool or a lack of preparedness for cold or hot temperatures.

Ultimate limit states design of concrete railway sleepers

The railway industry has been slow to adopt limit states principles in the structural design of concrete sleepers for its tracks, despite the global take up of this form of design for almost every other type of structural element. Concrete sleeper design is still based on limiting stresses but is widely perceived by track engineers to lead to untapped reserves of strength in the sleepers. Limit design is a more rational philosophy, especially where it is based on the ultimate dynamic capacity of the concrete sleepers. The paper describes the development of equations and factors for a limit design methodology for concrete sleepers in flexure using a probabilistic evaluation of sleeper loading. The new method will also permit a cogent, defensible means of establishing the true capacity of the billions of concrete sleepers that are currently in-track around the world, leading to better utilisation of track infrastructure. The paper demonstrates how significant cost savings may be achieved by track owners.

Briefing: Limit states design of railway concrete sleepers

Recently updated information has raised a concern over not only the existing cost-ineffective design method but also the unrealistic analysis mode of railroad prestressed concrete sleepers. Because of the deficient knowledge in the past, railway civil engineers have been mostly aware of the over-conservative design methods for structural components in any railway track, which rely on allowable stresses and material strength reductions. Based on a number of proven experiments and field data, it is believed that the concrete sleepers which complied with the allowable stress concept possess unduly untapped fracture toughness. A collaborative research project run by the Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Railway Engineering and Technologies (RailCRC) was initiated to ascertain the reserved capacity of Australian railway prestressed concrete sleepers designed using the existing design code. The findings have led to the development of a new limit states design concept. This briefing highlights the conventional and the new limit states design philosophies and their implication to both the railway and the public community.

Individual, environmental, and meteorological predictors of daily personal ultraviolet radiation exposure measurements in a United States cohort study

Background Individual exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is challenging to measure, particularly for diseases with substantial latency periods between first exposure and diagnosis of outcome, such as cancer. To guide the choice of surrogates for long-term UVR exposure in epidemiologic studies, we assessed how well stable sun-related individual characteristics and environmental/meteorological factors predicted daily personal UVR exposure measurements. Methods We evaluated 123 United States Radiologic Technologists subjects who wore personal UVR dosimeters for 8 hours daily for up to 7 days (N = 837 days). Potential predictors of personal UVR derived from a self-administered questionnaire, and public databases that provided daily estimates of ambient UVR and weather conditions. Factors potentially related to personal UVR exposure were tested individually and in a model including all significant variables. Results The strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure in the full model were ambient UVR, latitude, daily rainfall, and skin reaction to prolonged sunlight (R2 = 0.30). In a model containing only environmental and meteorological variables, ambient UVR, latitude, and daily rainfall were the strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure (R2 = 0.25). Conclusions In the absence of feasible measures of individual longitudinal sun exposure history, stable personal characteristics, ambient UVR, and weather parameters may help estimate long-term personal UVR exposure.

Adatom CCV Auger rates via the local density of states

In this letter the core-core-valence Auger transitions of an atomic impurity, both in bulk or adsorbed on a jellium-like surface, are computed within a DFT framework. The Auger rates calculated by the Fermi golden rule are compared with those determined by an approximate and simpler expression. This is based on the local density of states (LDOS) with a core hole present, in a region around the impurity nucleus. Different atoms, Na and Mg, solids, Al and Ag, and several impurity locations are considered. We obtain an excellent agreement between KL1V and KL23V rates worked out with the two approaches. The radius of the sphere in which we calculate the LDOS is the relevant parameter of the simpler approach. Its value only depends on the atomic species regardless of the location of the impurity and the type of substrate. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An approach for identifying the limit states of resilience of a water supply system

This paper presents an approach for identifying the limit states of resilience in a water supply system when influenced by different types of pressure (disturbing) forces. Understanding of systemic resilience facilitates identification of the trigger points for early managerial action to avoid further loss of ability to provide satisfactory service availability when the ability to supply water is under pressure. The approach proposed here is to illustrate the usefulness of a surrogate measure of resilience depicted in a three dimensional space encompassing independent pressure factors. That enables visualisation of the transition of the system-state (resilience) between high to low resilience regions and acts as an early warning trigger for decision-making. The necessity of a surrogate measure arises as a means of linking resilience to the identified pressures as resilience cannot be measured directly. The basis for identifying the resilience surrogate and exploring the interconnected relationships within the complete system, is derived from a meta-system model consisting of three nested sub-systems representing the water catchment and reservoir; treatment plant; and the distribution system and end-users. This approach can be used as a framework for assessing levels of resilience in different infrastructure systems by identifying a surrogate measure and its relationship to relevant pressures acting on the system.

Ultimate flexural limit states analysis of prestressed concrete sleeper

Railway is one of the most important, reliable and widely used means of transportation, carrying freight, passengers, minerals, grains, etc. Thus, research on railway tracks is extremely important for the development of railway engineering and technologies. The safe operation of a railway track is based on the railway track structure that includes rails, fasteners, pads, sleepers, ballast, subballast and formation. Sleepers are very important components of the entire structure and may be made of timber, concrete, steel or synthetic materials. Concrete sleepers were first installed around the middle of last century and currently are installed in great numbers around the world. Consequently, the design of concrete sleepers has a direct impact on the safe operation of railways. The "permissible stress" method is currently most commonly used to design sleepers. However, the permissible stress principle does not consider the ultimate strength of materials, probabilities of actual loads, and the risks associated with failure, all of which could lead to the conclusion of cost-ineffectiveness and over design of current prestressed concrete sleepers. Recently the limit states design method, which appeared in the last century and has been already applied in the design of buildings, bridges, etc, is proposed as a better method for the design of prestressed concrete sleepers. The limit states design has significant advantages compared to the permissible stress design, such as the utilisation of the full strength of the member, and a rational analysis of the probabilities related to sleeper strength and applied loads. This research aims to apply the ultimate limit states design to the prestressed concrete sleeper, namely to obtain the load factors of both static and dynamic loads for the ultimate limit states design equations. However, the sleepers in rail tracks require different safety levels for different types of tracks, which mean the different types of tracks have different load factors of limit states design equations. Therefore, the core tasks of this research are to find the load factors of the static component and dynamic component of loads on track and the strength reduction factor of the sleeper bending strength for the ultimate limit states design equations for four main types of tracks, i.e., heavy haul, freight, medium speed passenger and high speed passenger tracks. To find those factors, the multiple samples of static loads, dynamic loads and their distributions are needed. In the four types of tracks, the heavy haul track has the measured data from Braeside Line (A heavy haul line in Central Queensland), and the distributions of both static and dynamic loads can be found from these data. The other three types of tracks have no measured data from sites and the experimental data are hardly available. In order to generate the data samples and obtain their distributions, the computer based simulations were employed and assumed the wheel-track impacts as induced by different sizes of wheel flats. A valid simulation package named DTrack was firstly employed to generate the dynamic loads for the freight and medium speed passenger tracks. However, DTrack is only valid for the tracks which carry low or medium speed vehicles. Therefore, a 3-D finite element (FE) model was then established for the wheel-track impact analysis of the high speed track. This FE model has been validated by comparing its simulation results with the DTrack simulation results, and with the results from traditional theoretical calculations based on the case of heavy haul track. Furthermore, the dynamic load data of the high speed track were obtained from the FE model and the distributions of both static and dynamic loads were extracted accordingly. All derived distributions of loads were fitted by appropriate functions. Through extrapolating those distributions, the important parameters of distributions for the static load induced sleeper bending moment and the extreme wheel-rail impact force induced sleeper dynamic bending moments and finally, the load factors, were obtained. Eventually, the load factors were obtained by the limit states design calibration based on reliability analyses with the derived distributions. After that, a sensitivity analysis was performed and the reliability of the achieved limit states design equations was confirmed. It has been found that the limit states design can be effectively applied to railway concrete sleepers. This research significantly contributes to railway engineering and the track safety area. It helps to decrease the failure and risks of track structure and accidents; better determines the load range for existing sleepers in track; better rates the strength of concrete sleepers to support bigger impact and loads on railway track; increases the reliability of the concrete sleepers and hugely saves investments on railway industries. Based on this research, many other bodies of research can be promoted in the future. Firstly, it has been found that the 3-D FE model is suitable for the study of track loadings and track structure vibrations. Secondly, the equations for serviceability and damageability limit states can be developed based on the concepts of limit states design equations of concrete sleepers obtained in this research, which are for the ultimate limit states.

Conceptual and thematic analysis of policies and guidelines on engineering asset management of different states in Australia

The role of government in developing policies and guidelines for asset management is becoming increasingly important especially in view of ageing infrastructure and increasing financial risks for building infrastructure. This paper reviews policies and guidelines developed by Australian state authorities against industry developed principles. It utilizes the software program Leximancer to; a) produce conceptual visualisations of the key themes and concepts embedded within state-wide policies and guidelines, and b) systematically compare the differing asset management foci between states. The analyses reveal mixed results in terms of policy priorities and guidelines for managing assets at a strategic level across states. This paper outlines a rigorous analytical methodology to inform specific policy changes.

Generation of active surface states of gold and the role of such states in electrocatalysis

The cyclic voltammetry behaviour of gold in aqueous media is often regarded in very simple terms as a combination of two distinct processes, double layer charging/discharging and monolayer oxide formation/removal. This view is questioned here on the basis of both the present results and earlier independent data by other authors. It was demonstrated in the present case that both severe cathodization or thermal pretreatment of polycrystalline gold in acid solution resulted in the appearance of substantial Faradaic responses in the double layer region. Such anamolous behaviour, as outlined recently also for other metals, is rationalized in terms of the presence of active metal atoms (which undergo premonolayer oxidation) at the electrode surface. Such behaviour, which is also assumed to correspond to that of active sites on conventional gold surfaces, is assumed to be of vital importance in electrocatalysis; in many instances the latter process is also quite marked in the double layer region.

High energy states of gold and their importance in electrocatalytic processes at surfaces and interfaces

The ability of metals to store or trap considerable amounts of energy, and thus exist in a non-equilibrium or metastable state, is very well known in metallurgy; however, such behaviour, which is intimately connected with the defect character of metals, has been largely ignored in noble metal surface electrochemistry. Techniques for generating unusually high energy surface states for gold, and the unusual voltammetric responses of such states, are outlined. The surprisingly high (and complex) electrocatalytic activity of gold in aqueous media is attributed to the presence of a range of such non-equilibrium states as the vital entities at active sites on conventional gold surfaces. The possible relevance of these ideas to account for the remarkable catalytic activity of oxide-supported gold microparticles is briefly outlined.

The role of defects, or active states, in surface electrochemistry with particular reference to gold in neutral solution

Metastable, active, or nonequilibrium states due to the presence of abnormal structures and various types of defects are well known in metallurgy. The role of such states at gold surfaces in neutral aqueous media (an important electrode system in the microsensor area) was explored using cyclic voltammetry. It was demonstrated that, as postulated in earlier work from this laboratory, there is a close relationship between premonolayer oxidation, multilayer hydrous oxide reduction and electrocatalytic behaviour in the case of this and other metal electrode systems. Some of the most active, and therefore most important, entities at surfaces (e.g., metal adatoms) are not readily imageable or detectable by high resolution surface microscopy techniques. Cyclic voltammetry, however, provides significant, though not highly specific, information about such species. The main conclusion is that further practical and theoretical work on active states of metal surfaces is highly desirable as their behaviour is not simple and is of major importance in many electrocatalytic processes.

Managing growth in the sunshine states : urbanization and planning in Queensland and Florida

This paper compares the urbanization and planning in the two sunshine states of Florida and Queensland highlighting the similarities and differences, evaluates how effective the growth management programs have been, and examines the recent changes and the challenges they bring to the respective states.