Enantiomeric fraction evaluation of pharmaceuticals in environmentalmatrices by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry

The interest for environmental fate assessment of chiral pharmaceuticals is increasing and enantioselective analytical methods are mandatory. This study presents an enantioselective analytical method for the quantification of seven pairs of enantiomers of pharmaceuticals and a pair of a metabolite. The selected chiral pharmaceuticals belong to three different therapeutic classes, namely selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (venlafaxine, fluoxetine and its metabolite norfluoxetine), beta-blockers (alprenolol, bisoprolol, metoprolol, propranolol) and a beta2-adrenergic agonist (salbutamol). The analytical method was based on solid phase extraction followed by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry with a triple quadrupole analyser. Briefly, Oasis® MCX cartridges were used to preconcentrate 250 mL of water samples and the reconstituted extracts were analysed with a Chirobiotic™ V under reversed mode. The effluent of a laboratory-scale aerobic granular sludge sequencing batch reactor (AGS-SBR) was used to validate the method. Linearity (r2 > 0.99), selectivity and sensitivity were achieved in the range of 20–400 ng L−1 for all enantiomers, except for norfluoxetine enantiomers which range covered 30–400 ng L−1. The method detection limits were between 0.65 and 11.5 ng L−1 and the method quantification limits were between 1.98 and 19.7 ng L−1. The identity of all enantiomers was confirmed using two MS/MS transitions and its ion ratios, according to European Commission Decision 2002/657/EC. This method was successfully applied to evaluate effluents of wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) in Portugal. Venlafaxine and fluoxetine were quantified as non-racemic mixtures (enantiomeric fraction ≠ 0.5). The enantioselective validated method was able to monitor chiral pharmaceuticals in WWTP effluents and has potential to assess the enantioselective biodegradation in bioreactors. Further application in environmental matrices as surface and estuarine waters can be exploited.

Evaluation of neuroprotective potential of plyphenols derived from Portuguese native plants: Juniperus sp. and Rubus sp.

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biochemistry

Evaluation of the welfare impact of regulating mobile termination rates in Portugal

Following the European Commission’s 2009 Recommendation on the Regulatory Treatment of Fixed and Mobile Termination Rates in the EU, the Portuguese regulatory authority (ANACOM) decided to reduce termination prices in mobile networks to their long-run incremental cost (LRIC). Nevertheless, no serious quantitative assessment of the potential effects of this decision was carried out. In this paper, we adapt and calibrate the Harbord and Hoernig (2014) model of the UK mobile telephony market to the Portuguese reality, and simulate the likely impact on consumer surplus, profits and welfare of four different regulatory approaches: pure LRIC, reciprocal termination charges with fixed networks, “bill & keep”, and asymmetric termination rates. Our results show that reducing MTRs does increase social welfare, profits and consumer surplus in the fixed market, but mobile subscribers are seriously harmed by this decision.

Evaluation of antihypertensive drugs in patients with obstructive sleep apnea and in rats submitted to chronic intermittent hypoxia

RESUMO: A hipertensão arterial (HA) é uma patologia altamente prevalente, embora claramente subdiagnosticada, em doentes com síndrome de apneia obstrutiva do sono (SAOS). Estas duas patologias apresentam uma estreita relação e a monitorização ambulatória da pressão arterial (MAPA), por um período de 24 horas, parece ser o método mais preciso para o diagnóstico de hipertensão em doentes com SAOS. No entanto, esta ferramenta de diagnóstico para além de ser dispendiosa e envolver um número acrescido de meios técnicos e humanos, é mais morosa e, por conseguinte, não é utilizada por rotina no contexto do diagnóstico da SAOS. Por outro lado, apesar da aplicação de pressão positiva contínua nas vias aéreas (CPAP – Continous Positive Airway Pressure) ser considerada a terapêutica de eleição para os doentes com SAOS, o seu efeito no abaixamento da pressão arterial (PA) parece ser modesto, exigindo, por conseguinte, a implementação concomitante de terapêutica anti-hipertensora. Acontece que são escassos os dados relativos aos regimes de fármacos anti-hipertensores utilizados em doentes com SAOS e, acresce ainda que, as guidelines terapêuticas para o tratamento farmacológico da HA, neste grupo particular de doentes, permanecem, até ao momento, inexistentes. A utilização de modelos animais de hipóxia crónica intermitente (CIH), que mimetizam a HA observada em doentes com SAOS, revela-se extremamente importante, uma vez que se torna imperativo identificar fármacos que promovam um controle adequado da PA neste grupo de doentes. No entanto, estudos concebidos com o intuito de investigar o efeito anti-hipertensor dos fármacos neste modelo animal revelam-se insuficientes e, por outro lado, os escassos estudos que testaram fármacos anti-hipertensores neste modelo não foram desenhados para responder a questões de natureza farmacológica. Acresce ainda que se torna imprescindível garantir a escolha de um método para administração destes fármacos que seja não invasivo e que minimize o stress do animal. Embora a gavagem seja uma técnica indiscutivelmente eficaz e amplamente utilizada para a administração diária de fármacos a animais de laboratório, ela compreende uma sequência de procedimentos geradores de stress para os animais e, que podem por conseguinte, constituir um viés na interpretação dos resultados obtidos. O objectivo global da presente investigação translacional foi contribuir para a identificação de fármacos anti-hipertensores mais efectivos para o tratamento da HT nos indivíduos com SAOS e investigar mecanismos subjacentes aos efeitos sistémicos associadas à SAOS bem como a sua modulação por fármacos anti-hipertensores. Os objectivos específicos foram: em primeiro lugar,encontrar novos critérios, baseados nas medidas antropométricas, que permitam a identificação de doentes com suspeita de SAOS, que erroneamente se auto-classifiquem como nãohipertensos, e desta forma promover um uso mais criterioso do MAPA; em segundo lugar, investigar a existência de uma hipotética associação entre os esquemas de fármacos antihipertensores e o controle da PA (antes e após a adaptação de CPAP) em doentes com SAOS em terceiro lugar, avaliar a eficácia do carvedilol (CVD), um fármaco bloqueador β-adrenérgico não selectivo com actividade antagonista α1 intrínseca e propriedades anti-oxidantes num modelo animal de hipertensão induzida pela CIH; em quarto lugar, explorar os efeitos da CIH sobre o perfil farmacocinético do CVD; e, em quinto lugar, investigar um método alternativo à gavagem para a administração crónica de fármacos anti-hipertensores a animais de laboratório. Com este intuito, na primeira fase deste projecto, fizemos uso de uma amostra com um número apreciável de doentes com SAOS (n=369), que acorreram, pela primeira vez, à consulta de Patologia do Sono do CHLN e que foram submetidos a um estudo polissonográfico do sono, à MAPA e que preencheram um questionário que contemplava a obtenção de informação relativa ao perfil da medicação anti-hipertensora em curso. Numa segunda fase, utilizámos um modelo experimental de HT no rato induzida por um paradigma de CIH. Do nosso trabalho resultaram os seguintes resultados principais: em primeiro lugar, o índice de massa corporal (IMC) e o perímetro do pescoço (PP) foram identificados como preditores independentes de “auto-classificação errónea” da HA em doentes com suspeita de SAOS; em segundo lugar, não encontramos qualquer associação com significado estatístico entre os vários esquemas de fármacos anti-hipertensores bem como o número de fármacos incluídos nesse esquemas, e o controle da PA (antes e depois da adaptação do CPAP); em terceiro lugar, apesar das doses de 10, 30 e 50 mg/kg de carvedilol terem promovido uma redução significativa da frequência cardíaca, não foi observado qualquer decréscimo na PA no nosso modelo animal; em quarto lugar, as razões S/(R+S) dos enantiómeros do CVD nos animais expostos à CIH e a condições de normóxia revelaram-se diferentes; e, em quinto lugar, a administração oral voluntária mostrou ser um método eficaz para a administração diária controlada de fármacos anti-hipertensores e que é independente da manipulação e contenção do animal. Em conclusão, os resultados obtidos através do estudo clínico revelaram que o controle da PA, antes e após a adaptação do CPAP, em doentes com SAOS é independente, quer do esquema de fármacos anti-hipertensores, quer do número de fármacos incluídos num determinado esquema. Os nossos resultados salientam ainda a falta de validade da chamada self-reported hypertension e sugerem que em todos os doentes com suspeita de SAOS, com HA não diagnosticada e com um IMC e um PP acima de 27 kg/m2 e 39 cm, respectivamente, a confirmação do diagnóstico de HA deverá ser realizada através da MAPA, ao invés de outros métodos que com maior frequência são utilizados com este propósito. Os resultados obtidos no modelo animal de HA induzida pela CIH sugerem que o bloqueio do sistema nervoso simpático, juntamente com os supostos efeitos pleiotrópicos do CVD, não parece ser a estratégia mais adequada para reverter este tipo particular de hipertensão e indicam que as alterações farmacocinéticas induzidas pela CIH no ratio S/(R+S) não justificam a falta de eficácia anti-hipertensora do CVD observada neste modelo animal. Por último, os resultados do presente trabalho suportam ainda a viabilidade da utilização da administração oral voluntária, em alternativa à gavagem, para a administração crónica de uma dose fixa de fármacos anti-hipertensores.---------------------------- ABSTRACT: Hypertension (HT) is a highly prevalent condition, although under diagnosed, in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). These conditions are closely related and 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) seems to be the most accurate measurement for diagnosing hypertension in OSA. However, this diagnostic tool is expensive and time-consuming and, therefore, not routinely used. On the other hand, although continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is considered the gold standard treatment for symptomatic OSA, its lowering effect on blood pressure (BP) seems to be modest and, therefore, concomitant antihypertensive therapy is still required. Data on antihypertensive drug regimens in patients with OSA are scarce and specific therapeutic guidelines for the pharmacological treatment of hypertension in these patients remain absent. The use of animal models of CIH, which mimic the HT observed in patients with OSA, is extremely important since it is imperative to identify preferred compounds for an adequate BP control in this group of patients. However, studies aimed at investigating the antihypertensive effect of antihypertensive drugs in this animal model are insufficient, and most reports on CIH animal models in which drugs have been tested were not designed to respond to pharmacological issues. Moreover, when testing antihypertensive drugs (AHDs) it becomes crucial to ensure the selection of a non-invasive and stress-free method for drug delivery. Although gavage is effective and a widely performed technique for daily dosing in laboratory rodents, it comprises a sequence of potentially stressful procedures for laboratory animals that may constitute bias for the experimental results. The overall goal of the present translational research was to contribute to identify more effective AHDs for the treatment of hypertension in patients with OSA and investigate underlying mechanisms of systemic effects associated with OSA, as well as its modulation by AHDs. The specific aims were: first, to find new predictors based on anthropometric measures to identify patients that misclassify themselves as non-hypertensive, and thereby promote the selective use of ABPM; second, to investigate a hypothetical association between ongoing antihypertensive regimens and BP control rates in patients with OSA, before and after CPAP adaptation; third, to determine, in a rat model of CIH-induced hypertension, the efficacy of carvedilol (CVD), a nonselective beta-blocker with intrinsic anti-α1-adrenergic activity and antioxidant properties; fourth, to explore the effects of CIH on the pharmacokinetics profile of CVD and fifth, to investigate an alternative method to gavage, for chronic administration of AHDs to laboratory rats. For that, in the first phase of this project, we used a sizeable sample of patients with OSA (n=369), that attended a first visit at Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Norte, EPE Sleep Unit, and underwent overnight polysomnography, 24-h ABPM and filled a questionnaire that included ongoing antihypertensive medication profile registration. In the second phase, a rat experimental model of HT induced by a paradigm of CIH that simulates OSA was used. The main findings of this work were: first, body mass index (BMI) and neck circumference (NC) were identified as independent predictors of hypertension misclassification in patients suspected of OSA; second, in patients with OSA, BP control is independent of both the antihypertensive regimen and the number of antihypertensive drugs, either before or after CPAP adaptation; third, although the doses of 10, 30 and 50 mg/Kg of CVD promoted a significant reduction in heart rate, no decrease in mean arterial pressure was observed; fourth, the S/(R+S) ratios of CVD enantiomers, between rats exposed to CIH and normoxic conditions, were different and fifth, voluntary ingestion proved to be an effective method for a controlled daily dose administration, with a define timetable, that is independent of handling and restraint procedures. In conclusion, the clinical study showed that BP control in OSA patients is independent of both the antihypertensive regimen and the number of antihypertensive drugs. Additionally, our results highlight the lack of validity of self-reported hypertension and suggest that all patients suspected of OSA with undiagnosed hypertension and with a BMI and NC above 27 Kg/m2 and 39 cm should be screened for hypertension, through ABPM. The results attained in the rat model of HT related to CIH suggest that the blockade of the sympathetic nervous system together with the putative pleiotropic effects of carvedilol is not able to revert hypertension induced by CIH and point out that the pharmacokinetic changes induced by CIH on S/(R+S) ratio are not apparently responsible for the lack of efficacy of carvedilol in reversing this particular type of hypertension. Finally, the results here presented support the use of voluntary oral administration as a viable alternative to gavage for chronic administration of a fixed dose of AHDs.

Essays in health economics: Volume-Outcome Effect, upcoding behaviour and the evaluation of a short-term intervention program

Evidence in the literature suggests a negative relationship between volume of medical procedures and mortality rates in the health care sector. In general, high-volume hospitals appear to achieve lower mortality rates, although considerable variation exists. However, most studies focus on US hospitals, which face different incentives than hospitals in a National Health Service (NHS). In order to add to the literature, this study aims to understand what happens in a NHS. Results reveal a statistically significant correlation between volume of procedures and better outcomes for the following medical procedures: cerebral infarction, respiratory infections, circulatory disorders with AMI, bowel procedures, cirrhosis, and hip and femur procedures. The effect is explained with the practice-makes-perfect hypothesis through static effects of scale with little evidence of learning-by-doing. The centralization of those medical procedures is recommended given that this policy would save a considerable number of lives (reduction of 12% in deaths for cerebral infarction).

Critical evaluation of outcome scales to assess outcome after lateral ankle ligament repair

Introduction: Several scores are commonly used to evaluate patients' postoperative satisfaction after lateral ankle ligament repair, including: AOFAS, FAAM, CAIT and CAIS. Comparing published studies in the literature is difficult, as the same patient can have markedly different results depending on which scoring system is used. The current study aims to address this gap in the literature by developing a system to compare these tests, to allow better analysis and comparison of published studies. Patients and methods: This is a retrospective cohort study of 47 patients following lateral ankle ligament repair using a modified Broström-Gould technique. All patients were operated between 2005 and 2010 by a single surgeon and followed the same post operative rehabilitation protocol. Six patients were excluded from the study because of concomitant surgery. Patients were assessed by an independent observer. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to analyse the concordance of the scores, as well as scatter plots to assess the linear relationship between them. Results: A linear distribution between the scores was found when the results were analysed using scatter plots. We were thus able to use the Pearson correlation coefficient to evaluate the relationship between each of the different postoperative scores. The correlation was found to be above 0.5 in all cases except for the comparison between the CAIT and the FAAM for the activities of daily living (0.39). We were, therefore, able to compare the results obtained and assess the relative concordance of the scoring systems. The results showed that the more specific the scale is, the worst the score is and inversely. So the CAIT and the CAIS appeared to be more severe than the AOFAS and the FAAM measuring the activities of daily living. The sports subscale of the FAAM demonstrated intermediate results. Conclusion: This study outlines a system to compare different postoperative scores commonly used to evaluate outcome after ankle stabilization surgery. The impact of this study is that it makes comparison of published studies easier, even though they use a variety of different clinical scores, thus facilitating better outcome analysis of operative techniques.

In situ evaluation of single-cell lysis by cytosol extraction observation through fluorescence decay and dielectrophoretic trapping time

We present a new method for lysis of single cells in continuous flow, where cells are sequentially trapped, lysed and released in an automatic process. Using optimized frequencies, dielectrophoretic trapping allows exposing cells in a reproducible way to high electrical fields for long durations, thereby giving good control on the lysis parameters. In situ evaluation of cytosol extraction on single cells has been studied for Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells through out-diffusion of fluorescent molecules for different voltage amplitudes. A diffusion model is proposed to correlate this out-diffusion to the total area of the created pores, which is dependent on the potential drop across the cell membrane and enables evaluation of the total pore area in the membrane. The dielectrophoretic trapping is no longer effective after lysis because of the reduced conductivity inside the cells, leading to cell release. The trapping time is linked to the time required for cytosol extraction and can thus provide additional validation of the effective cytosol extraction for non-fluorescent cells. Furthermore, the application of one single voltage for both trapping and lysis provides a fully automatic process including cell trapping, lysis, and release, allowing operating the device in continuous flow without human intervention.

Evaluation of organ-specific peripheral doses after 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer based on Monte Carlo and convolution/superposition algorithms: implications for secondary cancer risk assessment.

To make a comprehensive evaluation of organ-specific out-of-field doses using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for different breast cancer irradiation techniques and to compare results with a commercial treatment planning system (TPS). Three breast radiotherapy techniques using 6MV tangential photon beams were compared: (a) 2DRT (open rectangular fields), (b) 3DCRT (conformal wedged fields), and (c) hybrid IMRT (open conformal+modulated fields). Over 35 organs were contoured in a whole-body CT scan and organ-specific dose distributions were determined with MC and the TPS. Large differences in out-of-field doses were observed between MC and TPS calculations, even for organs close to the target volume such as the heart, the lungs and the contralateral breast (up to 70% difference). MC simulations showed that a large fraction of the out-of-field dose comes from the out-of-field head scatter fluence (>40%) which is not adequately modeled by the TPS. Based on MC simulations, the 3DCRT technique using external wedges yielded significantly higher doses (up to a factor 4-5 in the pelvis) than the 2DRT and the hybrid IMRT techniques which yielded similar out-of-field doses. In sharp contrast to popular belief, the IMRT technique investigated here does not increase the out-of-field dose compared to conventional techniques and may offer the most optimal plan. The 3DCRT technique with external wedges yields the largest out-of-field doses. For accurate out-of-field dose assessment, a commercial TPS should not be used, even for organs near the target volume (contralateral breast, lungs, heart).

Characterization and clinical evaluation of CD10+ stroma cells in the breast cancer microenvironment.

PURPOSE: There is growing evidence that interaction between stromal and tumor cells is pivotal in breast cancer progression and response to therapy. Based on earlier research suggesting that during breast cancer progression, striking changes occur in CD10(+) stromal cells, we aimed to better characterize this cell population and its clinical relevance. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We developed a CD10(+) stroma gene expression signature (using HG U133 Plus 2.0) on the basis of the comparison of CD10 cells isolated from tumoral (n = 28) and normal (n = 3) breast tissue. We further characterized the CD10(+) cells by coculture experiments of representative breast cancer cell lines with the different CD10(+) stromal cell types (fibroblasts, myoepithelial, and mesenchymal stem cells). We then evaluated its clinical relevance in terms of in situ to invasive progression, invasive breast cancer prognosis, and prediction of efficacy of chemotherapy using publicly available data sets. RESULTS: This 12-gene CD10(+) stroma signature includes, among others, genes involved in matrix remodeling (MMP11, MMP13, and COL10A1) and genes related to osteoblast differentiation (periostin). The coculture experiments showed that all 3 CD10(+) cell types contribute to the CD10(+) stroma signature, although mesenchymal stem cells have the highest CD10(+) stroma signature score. Of interest, this signature showed an important role in differentiating in situ from invasive breast cancer, in prognosis of the HER2(+) subpopulation of breast cancer only, and potentially in nonresponse to chemotherapy for those patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the importance of CD10(+) cells in breast cancer prognosis and efficacy of chemotherapy, particularly within the HER2(+) breast cancer disease.

Evaluation of Machine Learning Classifiers for Mobile Network Intrusion Detection Systems

Mobile malwares are increasing with the growing number of Mobile users. Mobile malwares can perform several operations which lead to cybersecurity threats such as, stealing financial or personal information, installing malicious applications, sending premium SMS, creating backdoors, keylogging and crypto-ransomware attacks. Knowing the fact that there are many illegitimate Applications available on the App stores, most of the mobile users remain careless about the security of their Mobile devices and become the potential victim of these threats. Previous studies have shown that not every antivirus is capable of detecting all the threats; due to the fact that Mobile malwares use advance techniques to avoid detection. A Network-based IDS at the operator side will bring an extra layer of security to the subscribers and can detect many advanced threats by analyzing their traffic patterns. Machine Learning(ML) will provide the ability to these systems to detect unknown threats for which signatures are not yet known. This research is focused on the evaluation of Machine Learning classifiers in Network-based Intrusion detection systems for Mobile Networks. In this study, different techniques of Network-based intrusion detection with their advantages, disadvantages and state of the art in Hybrid solutions are discussed. Finally, a ML based NIDS is proposed which will work as a subsystem, to Network-based IDS deployed by Mobile Operators, that can help in detecting unknown threats and reducing false positives. In this research, several ML classifiers were implemented and evaluated. This study is focused on Android-based malwares, as Android is the most popular OS among users, hence most targeted by cyber criminals. Supervised ML algorithms based classifiers were built using the dataset which contained the labeled instances of relevant features. These features were extracted from the traffic generated by samples of several malware families and benign applications. These classifiers were able to detect malicious traffic patterns with the TPR upto 99.6% during Cross-validation test. Also, several experiments were conducted to detect unknown malware traffic and to detect false positives. These classifiers were able to detect unknown threats with the Accuracy of 97.5%. These classifiers could be integrated with current NIDS', which use signatures, statistical or knowledge-based techniques to detect malicious traffic. Technique to integrate the output from ML classifier with traditional NIDS is discussed and proposed for future work.

An impact evaluation of the Ontario ban on smoking in schools and on school property : does the ban on smoking influence high school students' intentions to smoke cigarettes?

The Ontario Tobacco Control Act of 1994 imposed a total ban on smoking in schools, and on school property for every school in the province. The imposition of this policy created problems for school administrators. For instance, students who were smoking on walkways and properties adjacent to school boundaries, clashed with neighbouring property owners who were angry about the resulting damage and disruption. The enforcement of this policy consumes valuable resources at each school; therefore, knowledge about the impact of the policy is important. If effective, this policy has the potential to improve the health of students over their lifetime, by preventing or delaying smoking behaviour. Alternatively, an ineffective policy will continue to create administrative problems for the school and serve no legitimate purpose. Therefore, knowledge about the impact of the smoking ban policy on students' smoking intentions assists policy makers and school administrators in their understanding of the policy's impact within the schools. This research provided an impact evaluation of the ban on smoking in schools and on school property in Ontario. A total of 2069 students, from five high schools, in the Niagara Region, provided complete responses to a survey, designed to test whether smoking intentions were affected by the imposition of the policy. The study used Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (Ajzen, 1991), specifically, the perceived behavioural control measure, to gain some understanding of students' perceptions of control over smoking imposed by the ban. The findings indicate the policy has the potential to influence students' overall smoking intentions. The ban on smoking policy was found to be a significant predictor of the smoking intentions of high school students. As well, attitude, social norms, and perceptions of control were significant predictors of smoking intentions. Exploratory findings also indicated differences between the control beliefs of students from different high schools, indicating potential differences in the enforcement of the smoking ban between schools. The findings also support the utility of the theory of planned behaviour as a methodology for evaluating the influence of punitive policies. This research study should be continued by utilizing the full theory of planned behaviour, including two phases of data collection and the measurement of actual smoking behaviour.

Fluorometric monitoring of the properties of proteins entrapped in sol-gel derived matrices

The successful development of stable biosensors incorporating entrapped proteins suffers from poor understanding of the properties of the entrapped biomolecules. This thesis reports on the use of fluorescence spectroscopy to investigate the properties of proteins entrapped in sol-gel processed silicate materials. Two different single tryptophan (Trp) proteins were investigated in this thesis, the Ca2 + binding protein cod III parvalbumin (C3P) and the salicylate binding protein human serum albumin (HSA). Furthermore, the reactive single cysteine (Cys) residue within C3P and HSA were labelled with the probes iodoacetoxynitrobenzoxadiazole (C3P) and acrylodan (C3P and HSA) to further examine the structure, stability and function of the free and entrapped proteins. The results show that both C3P and HSA can be successfully entrapped into sol-gelderived matrices with retention of function and conformational flexibility.

Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.

Top-down and Bottom-up influences on ACC activation: Evaluation of a proposed model of the feedback-related negativity

The Feedback-Related Negativity (FRN) is thought to reflect the dopaminergic prediction error signal from the subcortical areas to the ACC (i.e., a bottom-up signal). Two studies were conducted in order to test a new model of FRN generation, which includes direct modulating influences of medial PFC (i.e., top-down signals) on the ACC at the time of the FRN. Study 1 examined the effects of one’s sense of control (top-down) and of informative cues (bottom-up) on the FRN measures. In Study 2, sense of control and instruction-based (top-down) and probability-based expectations (bottom-up) were manipulated to test the proposed model. The results suggest that any influences of medial PFC on the activity of the ACC that occur in the context of incentive tasks are not direct. The FRN was shown to be sensitive to salient stimulus characteristics. The results of this dissertation partially support the reinforcement learning theory, in that the FRN is a marker for prediction error signal from subcortical areas. However, the pattern of results outlined here suggests that prediction errors are based on salient stimulus characteristics and are not reward specific. A second goal of this dissertation was to examine whether ACC activity, measured through the FRN, is altered in individuals at-risk for problem-gambling behaviour (PG). Individuals in this group were more sensitive to the valence of the outcome in a gambling task compared to not at-risk individuals, suggesting that gambling contexts increase the sensitivity of the reward system to valence of the outcome in individuals at risk for PG. Furthermore, at-risk participants showed an increased sensitivity to reward characteristics and a decreased response to loss outcomes. This contrasts with those not at risk whose FRNs were sensitive to losses. As the results did not replicate previous research showing attenuated FRNs in pathological gamblers, it is likely that the size and time of the FRN does not change gradually with increasing risk of maladaptive behaviour. Instead, changes in ACC activity reflected by the FRN in general can be observed only after behaviour becomes clinically maladaptive or through comparison between different types of gain/loss outcomes.

Longitudinal evaluation of sleep-related breathing disorders in an orthodontic population

Introduction: Les troubles respiratoires du sommeil (TRS), qui représentent une préoccupation croissante pour la santé, ont des effets significatifs sur la santé, le comportement et la performance académique chez l’enfant. Les malformations craniofaciales, l’hypertrophie adéno-amygdalienne et l'obésité, représentent des facteurs de risque importants dans le développement de cette condition. Les symptômes des TRS ont été étudiés dans une étude prospective chez les enfants et adolescents durant leur traitement orthodontique dans un milieu universitaire. Cette étude a cherché à décrire la prévalence et les facteurs de risque principaux des TRS, ainsi que l'impact des différentes interventions orthodontiques sur les symptômes TRS. Matériel et méthodes: dans une étude cohorte prospective, un groupe de 168 sujets âgés de 12 à 21 ans ont été soumis, quatre ans après la prise de données initiale, à un examen craniofacial en plus d'être administré des questionnaires qui ont recueilli des données sur la situation socio-démographique, le bruxisme et les troubles d’ATM, le sommeil et le comportement diurne, et les facteurs neuropsychologiques. Résultats: l'indice de masse corporelle a été augmenté mais est demeurée dans la même catégorie aux deux moments de l'enquête. Il ya eu une augmentation du serrement des dents et des symptômes de l'ATM, une diminution de la taille des amygdales, et une augmentation de la somnolence diurne. La prévalence des TRS n'a pas changé entre l’étude initiale et l’étude de suivi. Aucune intervention orthodontique s'est avérée avoir un effet cliniquement significatif sur les voies aériennes supérieures. Conclusions: la prévalence des symptômes TRS était constante par rapport aux valeurs de base pour la population étudiée, mais a augmenté si rapportée à la population générale. Les traitements orthodontiques ne montrent aucun effet sur les TRS. Mots-clés : apnée du sommeil, craniofacial, prévalence, ronflement, traitement orthodontique, voies aériennes supérieures