Validation of a priori CME arrival predictions made using real-time heliospheric imager observations

Between December 2010 and March 2013, volunteers for the Solar Stormwatch (SSW) Citizen Science project have identified and analyzed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the near real-time Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imager observations, in order to make “Fearless Forecasts” of CME arrival times and speeds at Earth. Of the 60 predictions of Earth-directed CMEs, 20 resulted in an identifiable Interplanetary CME (ICME) at Earth within 1.5–6 days, with an average error in predicted transit time of 22 h, and average transit time of 82.3 h. The average error in predicting arrival speed is 151 km s−1, with an average arrival speed of 425km s−1. In the same time period, there were 44 CMEs for which there are no corresponding SSW predictions, and there were 600 days on which there was neither a CME predicted nor observed. A number of metrics show that the SSW predictions do have useful forecast skill; however, there is still much room for improvement. We investigate potential improvements by using SSW inputs in three models of ICME propagation: two of constant acceleration and one of aerodynamic drag. We find that taking account of interplanetary acceleration can improve the average errors of transit time to 19 h and arrival speed to 77 km s−1.

Individual and organisational leadership: the shared approach

Purpose - this paper focuses on reducing the margin for leadership error in meeting strategic aims by forming a more robust approach to developing a broader and more reliable set of leadership skills to provide a greater likelihood of strategic alignment between corporate and individual need, increasing both of their respective shelve lives.

Rossby wave propagation on potential vorticity fronts with finite width

The horizontal gradient of potential vorticity (PV) across the tropopause typically declines with lead time in global numerical weather forecasts and tends towards a steady value dependent on model resolution. This paper examines how spreading the tropopause PV contrast over a broader frontal zone affects the propagation of Rossby waves. The approach taken is to analyse Rossby waves on a PV front of finite width in a simple single-layer model. The dispersion relation for linear Rossby waves on a PV front of infinitesimal width is well known; here an approximate correction is derived for the case of a finite width front, valid in the limit that the front is narrow compared to the zonal wavelength. Broadening the front causes a decrease in both the jet speed and the ability of waves to propagate upstream. The contribution of these changes to Rossby wave phase speeds cancel at leading order. At second order the decrease in jet speed dominates, meaning phase speeds are slower on broader PV fronts. This asymptotic phase speed result is shown to hold for a wide class of single-layer dynamics with a varying range of PV inversion operators. The phase speed dependence on frontal width is verified by numerical simulations and also shown to be robust at finite wave amplitude, and estimates are made for the error in Rossby wave propagation speeds due to the PV gradient error present in numerical weather forecast models.

The numbers of sample design for evaluation of the soil fertility

The determination of the amount of sample units that will compose the sample express the optimization of the workforce, and reduce errors inherent in the report of recommendation and evaluation of soil fertility. This study aimed to determine in three systems use and soil management, the numbers of units samples design, needed to form the composed sample, for evaluation of soil fertility. It was concluded that the number of sample units needed to compose the composed sample to determination the attributes of organic matter, pH, P, K, Ca, Mg, Al and H+Al and base saturation of soil vary by use and soil management and error acceptable to the mean estimate. For the same depth of collected, increasing the number of sample units, reduced the percentage error in estimating the average, allowing the recommendation of 14, 14 and 11 sample in management with native vegetation, pasture cultivation and corn, respectively, for a error 20% on the mean estimate.

An improved finite element space for discontinuous pressures

We consider incompressible Stokes flow with an internal interface at which the pressure is discontinuous, as happens for example in problems involving surface tension. We assume that the mesh does not follow the interface, which makes classical interpolation spaces to yield suboptimal convergence rates (typically, the interpolation error in the L(2)(Omega)-norm is of order h(1/2)). We propose a modification of the P(1)-conforming space that accommodates discontinuities at the interface without introducing additional degrees of freedom or modifying the sparsity pattern of the linear system. The unknowns are the pressure values at the vertices of the mesh and the basis functions are computed locally at each element, so that the implementation of the proposed space into existing codes is straightforward. With this modification, numerical tests show that the interpolation order improves to O(h(3/2)). The new pressure space is implemented for the stable P(1)(+)/P(1) mini-element discretization, and for the stabilized equal-order P(1)/P(1) discretization. Assessment is carried out for Poiseuille flow with a forcing surface and for a static bubble. In all cases the proposed pressure space leads to improved convergence orders and to more accurate results than the standard P(1) space. In addition, two Navier-Stokes simulations with moving interfaces (Rayleigh-Taylor instability and merging bubbles) are reported to show that the proposed space is robust enough to carry out realistic simulations. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Utvärdering av kvalité och dess behov inom förprovtryck

It always has been a need for the abiltiy to create color proofs. When an error occurs late in the production process, itis allways complicated and difficult to correct the error. In this project, digital proofs been made and discussions havebeen held with several people in the printing industry, in order to examine how well excisting digital proofs, meet thedemand of the market. And how close the digital proofs can come to the actual printsheat from the press. The study hasbeen shown that the one thing that has had the most influence on the outcome for the quality of a digital proof, is theprintshop operator’s knowledge about color management and proofing systems. Many advertising agencies in the graphicindustry think rasterised proofs are not necessesary and expensive. Therefor they prefer a cheaper alternative, whichdoesn’t show colors as well as the rasterised proof, but well enough to be content with it. There are a good awarenessconcerning lack of communication between printshop, reproduction and advertising agency. Advertising agencies thinkthat printshop rarely listen to what they have to say, while the printshop think that the advertising agency doesn’t understandwhat they are trying to tell them. The outcome of the printed proofs in this study can’t be representive for howgood digital proofs are conducted in regular basis in the industry. The divergence between the print press sheat and thedigital proof that was made was bigger than expected. This shows that implementation of ICC profiles in a color managementflow, not alone is the answer to making perfect digital proofs. There are so many other issues that has to be examined,like color management software, measure tools and correct color management module. In order to make a perfectproof, you have to look at the whole picture. In the end, the human eye finally has the last word on wheather theproof is good or not.

Likelihood prediction for generalized linear mixed models under covariate uncertainty

This paper presents the techniques of likelihood prediction for the generalized linear mixed models. Methods of likelihood prediction is explained through a series of examples; from a classical one to more complicated ones. The examples show, in simple cases, that the likelihood prediction (LP) coincides with already known best frequentist practice such as the best linear unbiased predictor. The paper outlines a way to deal with the covariate uncertainty while producing predictive inference. Using a Poisson error-in-variable generalized linear model, it has been shown that in complicated cases LP produces better results than already know methods.

The effect of events context on children's recall of non-experienced events across mutiple interviews

Purpose: The current study examined whether young children's willingness to assent to, and provide details about, a false (non-experienced) activity differs depending on whether the activity was allegedly embedded within (a) a specific event or (b) a broad (non-specified) time frame.
Method:  Ninety-nine children aged 4--5 years (from both low and high socioeconomic backgrounds) either (a) participated in a staged event that consisted of two activities or (b) did not participate in the staged event. One or two days later, all children were given false suggestions about a non-experienced (false) activity that had either high or low plausibility. Approximately 8, 15, and 22 days after the event, children were asked to recall the activities, and to answer a series of specific cued-recall questions.
Results: There was no effect of event context on assent rates, and the rate at which children reported interviewer suggestions. However, children who participated in the staged event provided fewer details about the false activity. Further, among those children who assented to the false activity, fewer subjects, objects, actions, temporal markers, locations, fantastic/improbable details, and confabulation errors were reported when the activity was embedded within the specific staged event.
Conclusion: The degree of error in children's accounts of a completely false activity is reduced when the activity is suggested to have occurred within a specified event as opposed to a broad (non-specified) time frame.

Aging effects on the metabolic and cognitive energy cost of interlimb coordination

Many everyday motor tasks have high metabolic energy demands, and some require extended practice to learn the required coordination between limbs. Eight older (73.1 6 4.4 years) and 8 younger (23.3 6 5.9) men practiced a  high-energy two-hand coordination task with both 1808 and 908 target  relative phase. The older group showed greater performance error in both conditions, and performance at 908 was strongly attracted to antiphase coordination (1808). In a retention test one week following the acquisition trials, the older group had learned the 1808 condition but did not learn the 908 condition. Metabolic energy cost was not different between groups, but the older men showed higher heart rate and both conditions imposed  greater cognitive demands as revealed in auditory probe reaction time. Older adults’ motor learning may be inhibited by elevated heart rate at the same  oxygen cost, increased cognitive cost, and an attraction toward more  established low-energy in-phase or antiphase coordination.

The meta-object facility typed

The Object Managment Group’s Meta-Object Facility (MOF) is a semiformal approach to writing models and metamodels (models of models). The MOF was developed to enable systematic model/metamodel interchange and integration. The approach is problematic, unless metamodels are correctly specified: an error in a metamodel specification will propagate throughout instantiating models and final model implementations. An important open question is how to develop provably correct metamodels. This paper outlines a solution to the question, in which the MOF metamodelling approach is formalized within constructive type theory.

Validation of a food-frequency questionnaire assessment of carotenoid and vitamin E intake using weighed food records and plasma biomarkers: the method of triads model.

Background: Reliability or validity studies are important for the evaluation of measurement error in dietary assessment methods. An approach to validation known as the method of triads uses triangulation techniques to calculate the validity coefficient of a food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ).

Objective: To assess the validity of an FFQ estimates of carotenoid and vitamin E intake against serum biomarker measurements and weighed food records (WFRs), by applying the method of triads. Design: The study population was a sub-sample of adult participants in a randomised controlled trial of b-carotene and sunscreen in the prevention of skin cancer. Dietary intake was assessed by a self-administered FFQ and a WFR. Nonfasting blood samples were collected and plasma analysed for five carotenoids (a-carotene, b-carotene, b-cryptoxanthin, lutein, lycopene) and vitamin E. Correlation coefficients were calculated between each of the dietary methods and the validity coefficient was calculated using
the method of triads. The 95% confidence intervals for the validity coefficients were estimated using bootstrap sampling.

Results: The validity coefficients of the FFQ were highest for a-carotene (0.85) and lycopene (0.62), followed by b-carotene (0.55) and total carotenoids (0.55), while the lowest validity coefficient was for lutein (0.19). The method of triads could not be used for b-cryptoxanthin and vitamin E, as one of the three underlying correlations was negative.

Conclusions: Results were similar to other studies of validity using biomarkers and the method of triads. For many dietary factors, the upper limit of the validity coefficients was less than 0.5 and therefore only strong relationships between dietary exposure and disease will be detected.

Optimal trajectory characterization for a pursuer navigation scheme

In this paper we examine the geometry of a number of bearing-only navigation schemes for guiding a pursuer from a fixed initial position to a final target position. We explicitly characterize the optimal trajectories for the given problems in terms of analyzing those trajectories which attempt to minimize the error in an estimate of the target position using successive bearing measurements made along the trajectory.

The risky business of doctoral management

Universities are under no less pressure to adopt risk management strategies than other public and private organisations. The risk management of doctoral education is a particularly important issue given that a doctorate is the highest academic qualification a university offers and stakes are high in terms of assuring its quality. However, intense risk management can interfere with the intellectual and pedagogical work which are essentially part of doctoral education. This paper seeks to understand how the culture of risk meets the culture of doctoral education and with what effect. The authors draw on sociological understandings of risk in the work of Anthony Giddens (2002) and Ulrich Beck (1992), the anthropological focus on liminality in the work of Mary Douglas (1990), and the psychological theorising of human error in the work of James Reason (1990). The paper concludes that risk consciousness brings its own risks—in particular, the potential transformation of a culture based on intellect into a culture based on compliance.

Comparing methods for prescribing exercise for individuals with chronic heart failure

This study examined the accuracy of current recommended guidelines for prescribing exercise intensity using the methods of percentage of heart rate reserve (%HRR), percentage of VO₂ peak (%VO₂peak) and percentage of VO₂ reserve (%VO₂R) in a clinical population of chronic heart failure (CHF) patients. The precision of prescription of exercise intensity for 45 patients with stable CHF (39:6 M:F, 65±9 yrs (mean±SD)) was investigated. VO₂peak testing is relatively common among patients with cardiac disease, but the assessment of VO₂rest is not common practice and the accepted standard value of 3.5 mL/kg/min is assumed in the application of %VO2R (%VO₂R_3.5). In this study, VO₂rest was recorded for 3 min prior to the start of a symptom-limited exercise test on a cycle ergometer. Target exercise intensities were calculated using the VO₂ corresponding to 50 or 80 %HRR, VO₂peak and VO₂R. The VO₂ values were then converted into prescribed speeds on a treadmill in km/hr at 1 %grade using ACSM’s metabolic equation for walking. Target intensities and prescribed treadmill speeds were also calculated with the %VO₂R method using the mean VO₂rest value of participants (3.9 mL/kg/min) (%VO₂R_3.9). This was then compared to the exercise intensities and prescribed treadmill speeds using patient’s measured VO₂rest. Error in prescription correlates the difference between %VO₂R_3.5 and %VO₂R_3.9 compared to %VO₂R with measured VO₂rest. Prescription of exercise intensity through the %HRR method is imprecise for patients on medications that blunt the HR response to exercise. %VO₂R method offers a significant improvement in exercise prescription compared to %VO₂peak. However, a disparity of 10 % still exists in the %VO₂R method using the standard 3.5 mL/kg/min for VO₂rest in the %VO₂R equation. The mean measured VO₂rest in the 45 CHF patients was 11 % higher (3.9±0.8 mL/kg/min) than the standard value provided by ACSM. Applying the mean measured VO₂rest value of 3.9 mL/kg/min rather than the standard assumed value of 3.5 mL/kg/min proved to be closer to the prescribed intensity determined by the actual measured resting VO₂. These results suggest that the %HRR method should not be used to prescribe exercise intensity for CHF patients. Instead, VO₂ should be used to prescribe exercise intensity and be expressed as %VO₂R with measured variables (VO₂rest and VO₂peak).

Measuring colour and photostability of small fleece wool samples

A convenient method for measuring the clean colour (Y and Y-Z) and photostability Δ(Y-Z) of small samples of fleece wool (0.5 g) is described. Scoured wool samples are compressed to a constant density in disposable polymethyl methacrylate spectrophotometer cells and the wool colour is measured using a standard textile laboratory reflectance spectrophotometer. Packing scoured wool into cells ensures that the irradiated fibre surface is robust and individual fibres are unable to move relative to one another during irradiation and measurement. A UVB (280–320 nm) source was used to ensure all samples regardless of initial yellowness were yellowed following exposure and photobleaching was avoided. An apparatus capable of irradiating up to 48 scoured wool samples in one batch is described. The precision of photostability measurements was assessed and the relative error in Δ(Y-Z) was 5.7%. An initial study on 75 fleece wool samples with a high range of initial yellowness showed a moderate linear correlation (R² = 0.68) between initial yellowness and Δ(Y-Z).