Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Costs of female reproduction in a conifer tree: a whole-tree level assessment

1. Costs of reproduction lie at the core of basic ecological and evolutionary theories, and their existence is commonly invoked to explain adaptive processes. Despite their sheer importance, empirical evidence for the existence and quantification of costs of reproduction in tree species comes mostly from correlational studies, while more comprehensive approaches remain missing. Manipulative experiments are a preferred approach to study cost of reproduction, as they allow controlling for otherwise inherent confounding factors like size or genetic background. 2. Here, we conducted a manipulative experiment in a Pinus halepensis common garden, removing developing cones from a group of trees and comparing growth and reproduction after treatment with a control group. We also estimated phenotypic and genetic correlations between reproductive and vegetative traits. 3. Manipulated trees grew slightly more than control trees just after treatment, with just a transient, marginally non-significant difference. By contrast, larger differences were observed for the number of female cones initiated 1 year after treatment, with an increase of 70% more cones in the manipulated group. Phenotypic and genetic correlations showed that smaller trees invested a higher proportion of their resources in reproduction, compared with larger trees, which could be interpreted as an indirect evidence for costs of reproduction. 4. Synthesis. This research showed a high impact of current reproduction on reproductive potential, even when not significant on vegetative growth. This has strong implications for how we understand adaptive strategies in forest trees and should encourage further interest on their still poorly known reproductive life-history traits.

Rice yield estimation based on weather conditions and on technological level of production systems in Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate an estimation system for rice yield in Brazil, based on simple agrometeorological models and on the technological level of production systems. This estimation system incorporates the conceptual basis proposed by Doorenbos & Kassam for potential and attainable yields with empirical adjusts for maximum yield and crop sensitivity to water deficit, considering five categories of rice yield. Rice yield was estimated from 2000/2001 to 2007/2008, and compared to IBGE yield data. Regression analyses between model estimates and data from IBGE surveys resulted in significant coefficients of determination, with less dispersion in the South than in the North and Northeast regions of the country. Index of model efficiency (E1') ranged from 0.01 in the lower yield classes to 0.45 in higher ones, and mean absolute error ranged from 58 to 250 kg ha‑1, respectively.

Repurposing Social Tagging Data for Extraction of Domain-level Concepts

The World Wide Web, the world¿s largest resource for information, has evolved from organizing information using controlled, top-down taxonomies to a bottom up approach that emphasizes assigning meaning to data via mechanisms such as the Social Web (Web 2.0). Tagging adds meta-data, (weak semantics) to the content available on the web. This research investigates the potential for repurposing this layer of meta-data. We propose a multi-phase approach that exploits user-defined tags to identify and extract domain-level concepts. We operationalize this approach and assess its feasibility by application to a publicly available tag repository. The paper describes insights gained from implementing and applying the heuristics contained in the approach, as well as challenges and implications of repurposing tags for extraction of domain-level concepts.

A civil society response on the report of the UN High-Level Panel on system-wide coherence

Abordamos el Informe del Grupo de Alto Nivel sobre la Coherencia en todo el Sistema de las Naciones Unidas («Informe del Grupo») y el proceso de reforma de las Naciones Unidas del que forma parte como grupos de la sociedad civil que tienen una larga experiencia por lo que se refiere a propugnar reformas del sistema de las Naciones Unidas.

Quantifying the level of eusociality

The evolution of animal societies in which some individuals forego direct reproduction to help others to reproduce poses an evolutionary paradox. Societies where all individuals reproduce equally and societies where a single individual completely monopolizes reproduction represent the end points of a continuum of variance in the reproductive output among group members. This led Sherman et al. (1995) to propose that cooperative breeding and eusociality (a term originally applied only to insects) are not discrete phenomena. Rather they form a continuum whose main difference is the extent to which individuals forego their own reproductive opportunity to help other members of the group. Here we present a new index: the eusociality index. It quantifies the decrease in direct reproduction of group members as a resut of altruistic acts directed to other members of the group (i.e. a measure of the level of eusociality). The rationale for this index lies in the fundamental duality of the reproductive process, in which organisms supply two distinct elements: (i) genetic material (genes); and (ii) power (energy). In non-eusocial animals, all individuals transmit genes and power in the same ratio (notwithstanding individual variance in offspring size and parental investment). By contrast, amongst eusocial animals some individuals contribute proportionally more to gene transfer, and others more to energy, resulting in high interindividual variation in the ratio of gene to power transfer.

Influence of HLA-C expression level on HIV control.

A variant upstream of human leukocyte antigen C (HLA-C) shows the most significant genome-wide effect on HIV control in European Americans and is also associated with the level of HLA-C expression. We characterized the differential cell surface expression levels of all common HLA-C allotypes and tested directly for effects of HLA-C expression on outcomes of HIV infection in 5243 individuals. Increasing HLA-C expression was associated with protection against multiple outcomes independently of individual HLA allelic effects in both African and European Americans, regardless of their distinct HLA-C frequencies and linkage relationships with HLA-B and HLA-A. Higher HLA-C expression was correlated with increased likelihood of cytotoxic T lymphocyte responses and frequency of viral escape mutation. In contrast, high HLA-C expression had a deleterious effect in Crohn's disease, suggesting a broader influence of HLA expression levels in human disease.

Three-Dimensional (3D) Microarchitecture Correlations with 2D Projection Image Gray-Level Variations Assessed by Trabecular Bone Score Using High-Resolution Computed Tomographic Acquisitions: Effects of Resolution and Noise.

The aim of the present study is to determine the level of correlation between the 3-dimensional (3D) characteristics of trabecular bone microarchitecture, as evaluated using microcomputed tomography (μCT) reconstruction, and trabecular bone score (TBS), as evaluated using 2D projection images directly derived from 3D μCT reconstruction (TBSμCT). Moreover, we have evaluated the effects of image degradation (resolution and noise) and X-ray energy of projection on these correlations. Thirty human cadaveric vertebrae were acquired on a microscanner at an isotropic resolution of 93μm. The 3D microarchitecture parameters were obtained using MicroView (GE Healthcare, Wauwatosa, MI). The 2D projections of these 3D models were generated using the Beer-Lambert law at different X-ray energies. Degradation of image resolution was simulated (from 93 to 1488μm). Relationships between 3D microarchitecture parameters and TBSμCT at different resolutions were evaluated using linear regression analysis. Significant correlations were observed between TBSμCT and 3D microarchitecture parameters, regardless of the resolution. Correlations were detected that were strongly to intermediately positive for connectivity density (0.711≤r(2)≤0.752) and trabecular number (0.584≤r(2)≤0.648) and negative for trabecular space (-0.407 ≤r(2)≤-0.491), up to a pixel size of 1023μm. In addition, TBSμCT values were strongly correlated between each other (0.77≤r(2)≤0.96). Study results show that the correlations between TBSμCT at 93μm and 3D microarchitecture parameters are weakly impacted by the degradation of image resolution and the presence of noise.

Are R&D collaborative agreements persistent at the firm level? Empirical evidence for the Spanish case

We provide evidence on the dynamics in firms’ R&D cooperation behaviour. Our main objective is to analyse if R&D collaborative agreements are persistent at the firm level, and in such a case, to study what are the main drivers of this phenomenon. R&D cooperation activities at the firm level can be persistent due to true state dependence, this implying that cooperating in a given period enhances the probability of doing it in the subsequent period and it can also be a consequence of firms’ individual heterogeneity, so that certain firms have certain characteristics that make them more likely to carry out technological alliances.

Are R&D collaborative agreements persistent at the firm level? Empirical evidence for the Spanish case

We provide evidence on the dynamics in firms’ R&D cooperation behaviour. Our main objective is to analyse if R&D collaborative agreements are persistent at the firm level, and in such a case, to study what are the main drivers of this phenomenon. R&D cooperation activities at the firm level can be persistent due to true state dependence, this implying that cooperating in a given period enhances the probability of doing it in the subsequent period and it can also be a consequence of firms’ individual heterogeneity, so that certain firms have certain characteristics that make them more likely to carry out technological alliances.

Highly Available Enterprise-level Application Server Architecture

Korkeasaatavuus on olennainen osa nykyaikaisissa, integroiduissa yritysjärjestelmissä. Yritysten kansainvälistyessä tiedon on oltava saatavissa ympärivuorokautisesti, mikä asettaa yhä kovempia vaatimuksia järjestelmän yksittäisten osien saatavuudelle. Kasvava tietojärjestelmäintegraatio puolestaan tekee järjestelmän solmukohdista kriittisiä liiketoiminnan kannalta. Tässä työssä perehdytään hajautettujen järjestelmien ominaisuuksiin ja niiden asettamiin haasteisiin. Esiteltyjä teknologioita ovat muun muassa väliohjelmistot, klusterit ja kuormantasaus. Yrityssovellusten pohjana käytetty Java 2 Enterprise Edition (J2EE) -teknologia käsitellään olennaisilta osiltaan. Työssä käytetään sovelluspalvelinalustana BEA WebLogic Server -ohjelmistoa, jonka ominaisuudet käydään läpi hajautuksen kannalta. Työn käytännön osuudessa toteutetaan kahdelle erilaiselle olemassa olevalle yrityssovellukselle korkean saatavuuden sovelluspalvelinympäristö, joissa sovellusten asettamat rajoitukset on otettu huomioon.

Early, low-level auditory-somatosensory multisensory interactions impact reaction time speed.

Several lines of research have documented early-latency non-linear response interactions between audition and touch in humans and non-human primates. That these effects have been obtained under anesthesia, passive stimulation, as well as speeded reaction time tasks would suggest that some multisensory effects are not directly influencing behavioral outcome. We investigated whether the initial non-linear neural response interactions have a direct bearing on the speed of reaction times. Electrical neuroimaging analyses were applied to event-related potentials in response to auditory, somatosensory, or simultaneous auditory-somatosensory multisensory stimulation that were in turn averaged according to trials leading to fast and slow reaction times (using a median split of individual subject data for each experimental condition). Responses to multisensory stimulus pairs were contrasted with each unisensory response as well as summed responses from the constituent unisensory conditions. Behavioral analyses indicated that neural response interactions were only implicated in the case of trials producing fast reaction times, as evidenced by facilitation in excess of probability summation. In agreement, supra-additive non-linear neural response interactions between multisensory and the sum of the constituent unisensory stimuli were evident over the 40-84 ms post-stimulus period only when reaction times were fast, whereas subsequent effects (86-128 ms) were observed independently of reaction time speed. Distributed source estimations further revealed that these earlier effects followed from supra-additive modulation of activity within posterior superior temporal cortices. These results indicate the behavioral relevance of early multisensory phenomena.