Impacts of climate change and management responses in tropical forests depend on complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal

AimBiodiversity outcomes under global change will be influenced by a range of ecological processes, and these processes are increasingly being considered in models of biodiversity change. However, the level of model complexity required to adequately account for important ecological processes often remains unclear. Here we assess how considering realistically complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal influences the projected climate change outcomes for plant diversity in the Australian Wet Tropics (all 4313 species). LocationThe Australian Wet Tropics, Queensland, Australia. MethodsWe applied a metacommunity model (M-SET) to project biodiversity outcomes using seed dispersal models that varied in complexity, combined with alternative climate change scenarios and habitat restoration scenarios. ResultsWe found that the complexity of the dispersal model had a larger effect on projected biodiversity outcomes than did dramatically different climate change scenarios. Applying a simple dispersal model that ignored spatial, temporal and taxonomic variation due to frugivore-mediated seed dispersal underestimated the reduction in the area of occurrence of plant species under climate change and overestimated the loss of diversity in fragmented tropical forest remnants. The complexity of the dispersal model also changed the habitat restoration approach identified as the best for promoting persistence of biodiversity under climate change. Main conclusionsThe consideration of complex processes such as frugivore-mediated seed dispersal can make an important difference in how we understand and respond to the influence of climate change on biodiversity.

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100EJ: high agreement; 100-300EJ: medium agreement; above 300EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245EJyr(-1) to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large-scale deployment (>200EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2 degrees degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.

Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

Prediction of Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of links with equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean climate indices

Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is linked to El Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) with the link with the seasonal value of the ENSO index being stronger than that with the EQUINOO index. We show that the variation of a composite index determined through bivariate analysis, explains 54% of ISMR variance, suggesting a strong dependence of the skill of monsoon prediction on the skill of prediction of ENSO and EQUINOO. We explored the possibility of prediction of the Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of prior values of the indices. We find that such predictions are possible for July-September rainfall on the basis of June indices and for August-September rainfall based on the July indices. This will be a useful input for second and later stage forecasts made after the commencement of the monsoon season.

Fast and slow climate responses to CO2 and solar forcing: A linear multivariate regression model characterizing transient climate change

Climate change in response to a change in external forcing can be understood in terms of fast response to the imposed forcing and slow feedback associated with surface temperature change. Previous studies have investigated the characteristics of fast response and slow feedback for different forcing agents. Here we examine to what extent that fast response and slow feedback derived from time-mean results of climate model simulations can be used to infer total climate change. To achieve this goal, we develop a multivariate regression model of climate change, in which the change in a climate variable is represented by a linear combination of its sensitivity to CO2 forcing, solar forcing, and change in global mean surface temperature. We derive the parameters of the regression model using time-mean results from a set of HadCM3L climate model step-forcing simulations, and then use the regression model to emulate HadCM3L-simulated transient climate change. Our results show that the regression model emulates well HadCM3L-simulated temporal evolution and spatial distribution of climate change, including surface temperature, precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, cloudiness, and radiative fluxes under transient CO2 and/or solar forcing scenarios. Our findings suggest that temporal and spatial patterns of total change for the climate variables considered here can be represented well by the sum of fast response and slow feedback. Furthermore, by using a simple 1-D heat-diffusion climate model, we show that the temporal and spatial characteristics of climate change under transient forcing scenarios can be emulated well using information from step-forcing simulations alone.

Fuzzy Approach to Rank Global Climate Models

Eleven coupled model intercomparison project 3 based global climate models are evaluated for the case study of Upper Malaprabha catchment, India for precipitation rate. Correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square deviation, and skill score are considered as performance indicators for evaluation in fuzzy environment and assumed to have equal impact on the global climate models. Fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution is used to rank global climate models. Top three positions are occupied by MIROC3, GFDL2.1 and GISS with relative closeness of 0.7867, 0.7070, and 0.7068. IPSL-CM4, NCAR-PCMI occupied the tenth and eleventh positions with relative closeness of 0.4959 and 0.4562.

Of plants and pikas: evidence for a climate-mediated decline in forage and cache quality

Background: Animals that hoard food to mediate seasonal deficits in resource availability might be particularly vulnerable to climate-mediated reductions in the quality and accessibility of food during the caching season. Central-place foragers might be additionally impacted by climatic constraints on their already restricted foraging range. Aims: We sought evidence for these patterns in a study of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a territorial, central-place forager sensitive to climate. Methods: Pika food caches and available forage were re-sampled using historical methods at two long-term study sites, to quantify changes over two decades. Taxa that changed in availability or use were analysed for primary and secondary metabolites. Results: Both sites trended towards warmer summers, and snowmelt trended earlier at the lower latitude site. Graminoid cover increased at each site, and caching trends appeared to reflect available forage rather than primary metabolites. Pikas at the lower latitude site preferred species higher in secondary metabolites, known to provide higher-nutrient winter forage. However, caching of lower-nutrient graminoids increased in proportion with graminoid availability at that site. Conclusions: If our results represent trends in climate, cache quality and available forage, we predict that pikas at the lower latitude site will soon face nutritional deficiencies.

Simulated long-term climate response to idealized solar geoengineering

Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a potential means to counteract anthropogenic climate change, yet it is unknown how such climate intervention might affect the Earth's climate on the millennial time scale. Here we use the HadCM3L model to conduct a 1000year sunshade geoengineering simulation in which solar irradiance is uniformly reduced by 4% to approximately offset global mean warming from an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2. During the 1000year period, modeled global climate, including temperature, hydrological cycle, and ocean circulation of the high-CO2 simulation departs substantially from that of the control preindustrial simulation, whereas the climate of the geoengineering simulation remains much closer to that of the preindustrial state with little drift. The results of our study do not support the hypothesis that nonlinearities in the climate system would cause substantial drift in the climate system if solar geoengineering was to be deployed on the timescale of a millennium.