Robust relations between CCN and the vertical evolution of cloud drop size distribution in deep convective clouds

In-situ measurements in convective clouds (up to the freezing level) over the Amazon basin show that smoke from deforestation fires prevents clouds from precipitating until they acquire a vertical development of at least 4 km, compared to only 1-2 km in clean clouds. The average cloud depth required for the onset of warm rain increased by similar to 350 m for each additional 100 cloud condensation nuclei per cm(3) at a super-saturation of 0.5% (CCN0.5%). In polluted clouds, the diameter of modal liquid water content grows much slower with cloud depth (at least by a factor of similar to 2), due to the large number of droplets that compete for available water and to the suppressed coalescence processes. Contrary to what other studies have suggested, we did not observe this effect to reach saturation at 3000 or more accumulation mode particles per cm(3). The CCN0.5% concentration was found to be a very good predictor for the cloud depth required for the onset of warm precipitation and other microphysical factors, leaving only a secondary role for the updraft velocities in determining the cloud drop size distributions. The effective radius of the cloud droplets (r(e)) was found to be a quite robust parameter for a given environment and cloud depth, showing only a small effect of partial droplet evaporation from the cloud's mixing with its drier environment. This supports one of the basic assumptions of satellite analysis of cloud microphysical processes: the ability to look at different cloud top heights in the same region and regard their r(e) as if they had been measured inside one well developed cloud. The dependence of r(e) on the adiabatic fraction decreased higher in the clouds, especially for cleaner conditions, and disappeared at r(e)>=similar to 10 mu m. We propose that droplet coalescence, which is at its peak when warm rain is formed in the cloud at r(e)=similar to 10 mu m, continues to be significant during the cloud's mixing with the entrained air, cancelling out the decrease in r(e) due to evaporation.

Role of noise in population dynamics cycles

Noise is an intrinsic feature of population dynamics and plays a crucial role in oscillations called phase-forgetting quasicycles by converting damped into sustained oscillations. This function of noise becomes evident when considering Langevin equations whose deterministic part yields only damped oscillations. We formulate here a consistent and systematic approach to population dynamics, leading to a Fokker-Planck equation and the associate Langevin equations in accordance with this conceptual framework, founded on stochastic lattice-gas models that describe spatially structured predator-prey systems. Langevin equations in the population densities and predator-prey pair density are derived in two stages. First, a birth-and-death stochastic process in the space of prey and predator numbers and predator-prey pair number is obtained by a contraction method that reduces the degrees of freedom. Second, a van Kampen expansion in the inverse of system size is then performed to get the Fokker-Planck equation. We also study the time correlation function, the asymptotic behavior of which is used to characterize the transition from the cyclic coexistence of species to the ordinary coexistence.

Effect of crab size and habitat type on the locomotory activity of juvenile shore crabs, Carcinus maenas

Post-settlement processes are a major focus in the study of the dynamics of marine populations and communities. Post-settlement movement of juveniles is an important, but often ignored, process which affects local predator-prey and competitive interactions. We used benthic suction sampling and pitfall traps to examine density and locomotory activity of Carcinus maenas juveniles in different intertidal habitat types in the Rio Mira Estuary, Portugal, to better understand intra-specific interactions in a system where density-dependent processes are known to regulate population dynamics. As expected, significantly higher densities of juvenile shore crabs were found from bare mud compared to densely vegetated habitats. At the time of sampling, small and intermediate stages together outnumbered by far the larger juveniles. Conversely, larger crabs were much more frequent than smaller ones in traps. A locomotory index (LI), i.e. the ratio between crab catch in pitfall traps and their density within their moving range, is proposed as a measure of movement. LI analyses indicated that: (1) movement is an order of magnitude higher in large than small juveniles and much higher in sparse than dense vegetation cover; (2) activity of small juveniles is mostly crepuscular, regardless of vegetation cover; and (3) movement of large juveniles is very limited in dense Zostera patches, but very high in sparsely vegetated areas, during the day and night. These results suggest that small juveniles are relatively protected under dense vegetation cover due to lower mobility of larger crabs, and provide evidence of temporal segregation of activity windows between juvenile crabs of different sizes, which may be a key mechanism to reduce cannibalism and therefore increase the carrying capacity of nursery habitats. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simple and effective inverse projection scheme for void distribution control in topology optimization

The ability to control both the minimum size of holes and the minimum size of structural members are essential requirements in the topology optimization design process for manufacturing. This paper addresses both requirements by means of a unified approach involving mesh-independent projection techniques. An inverse projection is developed to control the minimum hole size while a standard direct projection scheme is used to control the minimum length of structural members. In addition, a heuristic scheme combining both contrasting requirements simultaneously is discussed. Two topology optimization implementations are contributed: one in which the projection (either inverse or direct) is used at each iteration; and the other in which a two-phase scheme is explored. In the first phase, the compliance minimization is carried out without any projection until convergence. In the second phase, the chosen projection scheme is applied iteratively until a solution is obtained while satisfying either the minimum member size or minimum hole size. Examples demonstrate the various features of the projection-based techniques presented.

Genetic potential of a maize population from Southern Brazil for the modified convergent-divergent selection scheme

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a very important cereal to world-wide economy which is also true for Brazil, particularly in the South region. Grain yield and plant height have been chosen as important criteria by breeders and farmers from Santa Catarina State (SC), Brazil. The objective of this work was to estimate genetic-statistic parameters associated with genetic gain for grain yield and plant height, in the first cycle of convergent-divergent half-sib selection in a maize population (MPA1) cultivated by farmers within the municipality of Anchieta (SC). Three experiments were carried out in different small farms at Anchieta using low external agronomic inputs; each experiment represented independent samples of half-sib families, which were evaluated in randomized complete blocks with three replications per location. Significant differences among half-sib families were observed for both variables in all experiments. The expected responses to truncated selection of the 25% better families in each experiment were 5.1, 5.8 and 5.2% for reducing plant height and 3.9, 5.7 and 5.0% for increasing grain yield, respectively. The magnitudes of genetic-statistic parameters estimated evidenced that the composite population MPA1 exhibits enough genetic variability to be used in cyclical process of recurrent selection. There were evidences that the genetic structure of the base population MPA1, as indicated by its genetic variability, may lead to expressive changes in the traits under selection, even under low selection pressure.

Prevention of hypertension in patients with pre-hypertension: protocol for the PREVER-prevention trial

Background: Blood pressure (BP) within pre-hypertensive levels confers higher cardiovascular risk and is an intermediate stage for full hypertension, which develops in an annual rate of 7 out of 100 individuals with 40 to 50 years of age. Non-drug interventions to prevent hypertension have had low effectiveness. In individuals with previous cardiovascular disease or diabetes, the use of BP-lowering agents reduces the incidence of major cardiovascular events. In the absence of higher baseline risk, the use of BP agents reduces the incidence of hypertension. The PREVER-prevention trial aims to investigate the efficacy, safety and feasibility of a population-based intervention to prevent the incidence of hypertension and the development of target-organ damage. Methods: This is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial, with participants aged 30 to 70 years, with pre-hypertension. The trial arms will be chlorthalidone 12.5 mg plus amiloride 2.5 mg or identical placebo. The primary outcomes will be the incidence of hypertension, adverse events and development or worsening of microalbuminuria and of left ventricular hypertrophy in the EKG. The secondary outcomes will be fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events: myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, evidence of new sub-clinical atherosclerosis, and sudden death. The study will last 18 months. The sample size was calculated on the basis of an incidence of hypertension of 14% in the control group, a size effect of 40%, power of 85% and P alpha of 5%, resulting in 625 participants per group. The project was approved by the Ethics committee of each participating institution. Discussion: The early use of blood pressure-lowering drugs, particularly diuretics, which act on the main mechanism of blood pressure rising with age, may prevent cardiovascular events and the incidence of hypertension in individuals with hypertension. If this intervention shows to be effective and safe in a population-based perspective, it could be the basis for an innovative public health program to prevent hypertension in Brazil.

Population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics: An underutilized resource

A meeting was convened in Canberra, Australia, at the request of the Australian Drug Evaluation Committee (ADEC), on December 3-4, 1997 to discuss the role of population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in drug evaluation and development. The ADEC was particularly concerned about registration of drugs in the pediatric age group. The population approach could be used more often than is currently the case in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies to provide valuable information for the safe and effective use of drugs in neonates, infants, and children. The meeting ultimately broadened to include discussion about other subgroups. The main conclusions of the meeting were: 1. The population approach, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analysis, is a valuable tool both for drug registration purposes and for optimal dosing of drugs in specific groups of patients, 2. Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies are able to fill in the gaps' in registration of drugs, for example, to provide information on optimal pediatric dosing. Such studies provide a basis for enhancing product information to improve rational prescribing, 3. Expertise is required to perform the population studies and expertise, with a clinical perspective, is also required to evaluate such studies if they are to be submitted as part of a drug registration dossier Such expertise is available in the Australasian region and is increasing. Centers of excellence with the appropriate expertise to advise and assist should be encouraged to develop and grow in the region, 4. The use of the population approach by the pharmaceutical industry needs to be encouraged to provide valuable information not obtainable by other techniques. The acceptance of population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analyses by regulatory agencies also needs to be encouraged, and 5. Development of the population approach to pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics is needed from a public health perspective to ensure that all available information is collected and used to improve the way drugs are used. This important endeavor needs funding and support at the local and international levels.

Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Habitat structure and egg distributions in the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer: lessons for conservation and pest management

1. The spatial and temporal distribution of eggs laid by herbivorous insects is a crucial component of herbivore population stability, as it influences overall mortality within the population. Thus an ecologist studying populations of an endangered butterfly can do little to increase its numbers through habitat management without knowledge of its egg-laying patterns across individual host-plants under different habitat management regimes. At the other end of the spectrum, a knowledge of egg-laying behaviour can do much to control pest outbreaks by disrupting egg distributions that lead to rapid population growth. 2. The distribution of egg batches of the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer on acacia trees was monitored in 21 habitats during 2 years in coastal Australia. The presence of egg batches on acacias was affected by host-tree 'quality' (tree size and foliar chemistry that led to increased caterpillar survival) and host-tree 'apparency' (the amount of vegetation surrounding host-trees). 3. In open homogeneous habitats, more egg batches were laid on high-quality trees, increasing potential population growth. In diverse mixed-species habitats, more egg batches were laid on low-quality highly apparent trees, reducing population growth and so reducing the potential for unstable population dynamics. The aggregation of batches on small apparent trees in diverse habitats led to outbreaks on these trees year after year, even when population levels were low, while site-wide outbreaks were rare. 4. These results predict that diverse habitats with mixed plant species should increase insect aggregation and increase population stability. In contrast, in open disturbed habitats or in regular plantations, where egg batches are more evenly distributed across high-quality hosts, populations should be more unstable, with site-wide outbreaks and extinctions being more common. 5. Mixed planting should be used on habitat regeneration sites to increase the population stability of immigrating or reintroduced insect species. Mixed planting also increases the diversity of resources, leading to higher herbivore species richness. With regard to the conservation of single species, different practices of habitat management will need to be employed depending on whether a project is concerned with methods of rapidly increasing the abundance of an endangered insect or concerned with the maintenance of a stable, established insect population that is perhaps endemic to an area. Suggestions for habitat management in these different cases are discussed. 6. Finally, intercropping can be highly effective in reducing pest outbreaks, although the economic gains of reduced pest attack may be outweighed by reduced crop yields in mixed-crop systems.

Methods for effective fluidization of particulate food materials

Depending on the size and shape of the materials, methods employed to achieve effective fluidization during fluid bed drying varies from use of simple hole distributors for small, light weight materials to special techniques for lager and/or moist materials. This paper reviews common air distributors used in fluidized bed drying of food particulates. Also it reviews special methods of fluidizing larger irregular food particulates.

Size-based predation by kookaburras (Dacelo novaeguineae) on lizards (Eulamprus tympanum : Scincidae): what determines prey vulnerability?

Lizards and birds are both popular model organisms in behavioural ecology, but the interactions between them have attracted little study. Given the putative importance of birds as predators of diurnal Lizards, it is of considerable interest to know which traits (of lizards as well as birds) influence the outcome of a predatory attempt. We studied predation by giant terrestrial kingfishers (kookaburras, Dacelo novaeguineae: Alcedinidae) on heliothermic diurnal lizards (highland water skinks, Eulamprus tympanum: Scincidae), with particular reference to the role of prey (lizard) size. Our approach was twofold: to gather direct evidence (sizes of lizards consumed in the field, compared to those available) and indirect evidence rite-related shifts in lizard behaviour). We quantified the size structure of a natural population of skinks (determined by an extensive mark-recapture program), and compared it to the sizes of wild lizards taken by kookaburras (determined by analysis of prey remains left at the birds' nests,. Kookaburras showed size-based predation: they preyed mainly on small and medium-sized rather than large lizards in the field. However, the mechanism producing this bias remains elusive. It is not due to any distinctive behavioural attributes (locomotor ability, activity level, habitat usage) of the lizards of the size class disproportionately taken by the kookaburras. The greater vulnerability of subadult lizards may reflect subtle ontogenetic shifts in ecological and behavioural traits, but our data suggest that great caution is needed in inferring patterns of vulnerability to predation from indirect measures based on either the prey or the predator alone. Instead, we need direct observations on the interaction between the two.

Review of "Comorbidity, disability and the need for treatment for DSM-IV psychiatric disorders in an insured population"

Background: This study presents estimates of 12 month and current prevalences of DSM-IV disorders, and the related comor-bidity, disability and service utilization, derived from a national probability sample in Australia. Methods: The DSM-IV psychiatric disorders among persons aged 18 and over in the Australian population were assessed with data collected by lay interviewers using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, other screening interviews and measures of disability and service utilization. The response rate was 78.1% and the final sample size was 10,641 adults. Results: Close to 20% reported at least one twelve month disorder and 13% a disorder current within the past 30 days. ICD-10 diagnoses were also derived, DSM-IV was the more conservative classification whether or not the new clinical significance criteria was applied. Major depression, any personality disorder, and alcohol dependence were the three most common twelve month disorders, generalized anxiety disorder replaced alcohol dependence as the third most common current disorder. The sexes has similar rates of any disorder, but women had higher rates of affective and anxiety disorders, men higher rates of substance use disorders. Prevalence of most disorders declined with age and education, and were lower among those employed or married. Respondents whose symptoms met criteria for three or more disorders in the past year had greatly increased rates of disability and of mental health consultations. The affective and somatoform disorders were associated with the highest rates of disability. Only 36% of people with a mental disorder this year had consulted for a mental problem, and most had seen a general practitioner. We identified those with a current disorder who were disabled or multiply comorbid - only half had consulted and of those who had not, more than half said they did not need treatment. Conclusions: The 12 month prevalence was lower than reported in the US National Comorbidity Survey but method factors might account for this. The relationships between prevalence and demographic variables, and between comorbidity, disability and service utilization were similar to those found in the US survey. Australia has a national health insurance scheme with total coverage and access to medical help is available to all, commonly at little or no cost. We identify the high rate of not consulting among those with a current disorder, and additional disability or multiple comorbidity, as an important public health problem. Kessler argued for more research on barriers to professional help seeking. This report reinforces his conclusion and shows that economic barriers are not the dominant issue.

Aspects of the biology of the yabby Trypea australiensis (Dana) (Decapoda : Thalassinidea) and the potential of burrow counts as an indirect measure of population density

The thalassinidean shrimp Trypea australiensis (the yabby) commonly occurs on intertidal sandflats and subtidal regions of sheltered embayments and estuaries along the east coast of Australia and is harvested commercially and recreationally for use as bait by anglers. The potential for counts of burrow openings to provide a reliable indirect estimate of the abundance of yabbies was examined on intertidal sandflats on North Stradbroke Island (Queensland, Australia). The relationship between the number of burrow openings and the abundance of yabbies was generally poor and also varied significantly through time, casting doubt on previous estimates of abundance for this species based on unvalidated hole counts. Spatial and temporal variation in population density, the size at maturity and the reproductive period of the yabby were also assessed. Except for an initial peak in abundance as a result of recruitment, the density of yabbies was constant throughout the study but considerably less than that estimated from a previous study in the same area. Ovigerous females were recorded at 3 mm carapace length (CL) which is smaller than previously recorded for this species and thalassinideans in general. Small ovigerous females were found throughout the study, including the summer months, which is unusual for thalassinideans in the intertidal zone. It was hypothesised that in the intertidal zone, small female yabbies may be able to balance the metabolic demands of reproduction and respiration at higher temperatures than can larger females allowing them to reproduce in the warmer months.

Comparative analysis of population structure of endemic Western Atlantic hermit crab Loxopagurus loxochelis (Decapoda, Anomura) in two regions of state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work characterized the population structure of the hermit crab Loxopagurus loxochelis (Moreira, 1901) in terms of size frequency distribution and sex ratio. Specimens were collected monthly, over a period of one year (from July 2002 to June 2003), in seven transects (from 5 to 35 m of depth) using fishing boat equipped with two double-rig trawl nets, in Caraguatatuba and Ubatuba regions (state of Sao Paulo, Brazil). A total of 366 hermit crabs were collected in Caraguatatuba [222 males (60.65%), 114 non-ovigerous females (31.15%) and 30 ovigerous females (8.20%)] and 126 hermit crabs in Ubatuba [81 males (64.28%), 38 non-ovigerous females (30.16%) and seven ovigerous females (5.56%)]. In Caraguatatuba the highest incidence of ovigerous females occurred during winter (July 2002), whereas in Ubatuba, the number was incipient. The cephalothoracic shield length ranged from 2.0 to 7.9mm (5.29 +/- 0.96mm) in Caraguatatuba, and from 2.7 to 7.5mm (5.32 +/- 0.95mm) in Ubatuba. The mean size of males was significantly larger than the mean size of females in both regions. Overall sex ratio was in favor of males (1.54:1 in Caraguatatuba and 1.9:1 in Ubatuba). Sexual dimorphism was recorded to L. loxochelis by the presence of males in the largest size classes, following the standard pattern observed in Decapoda. There was an unimodal size distribution for both sexes, with normal distributions in both regions. The higher number of males in relation to females may indicate the existence of different growth and mortality rates between the sexes. Despite of the different geomorphologic characteristics between Caraguatatuba and Ubatuba regions, the dynamics of development was similar for both populations.

Cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors for major depression in children and adolescents

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) in children and adolescents, compared to 'current practice'. Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filter criteria ('equity'; 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are tracked for the duration of a new episode of MDD arising in eligible children (age 6-17 years) in the Australian population in the year 2000. Simulation-modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by public psychologists is the most cost-effective intervention for MDD in children and adolescents at A$9000 per DALY saved (95% UI A$3900 to A$24 000). SSRIs and CBT by other providers are less cost-effective but likely to be less than A$50 000 per DALY saved (> 80% chance). CBT is more effective than SSRIs in children and adolescents, resulting in a greater total health benefit (DALYs saved) than could be achieved with SSRIs. Issues that require attention for the CBT intervention include equity concerns, ensuring an adequate workforce, funding arrangements and acceptability to various stakeholders. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy provided by a public psychologist is the most effective and cost-effective option for the first-line treatment of MDD in children and adolescents. However, this option is not currently accessible by all patients and will require change in policy to allow more widespread uptake. It will also require 'start-up' costs and attention to ensuring an adequate workforce.