Perceptions of water conditions and management in the Sonora River Basin, Sonora, Mexico

The effects of climate change are expected to be very severe in arid regions. The Sonora River Basin, in the northwestern state of Sonora, Mexico, is likely to be severely affected. Some of the anticipated effects include precipitation variability, intense storm events, higher overall temperatures, and less available water. In addition, population in Sonora, specifically the capital city of Hermosillo, is increasing at a 1.5% rate and current populations are near 700,000. With the reduction in water availability and an increase in population, Sonora, Mexico is expected to experience severe water resource issues in the near future. In anticipation of these changes, research is being conducted in an attempt to improve water management in the Sonora River Basin, located in the northwestern part of Sonora. This research involves participatory modeling techniques designed to increase water manager awareness of hydrological models and their use as integrative tools for water resource management. This study was conducted as preliminary research for the participatory modeling grant in order to gather useful information on the population being studied. This thesis presents research from thirty-four in-depth interviews with water managers, citizens, and agricultural producers in Sonora, Mexico. Data was collected on perceptions of water quantity and quality in the basin, thoughts on current water management practices, perceptions of climate change and its management, experience with, knowledge of, and trust in hydrological models as water management tools. Results showed that the majority of interviewees thought there was not enough water to satisfy their daily needs. Most respondents also agreed that the water available was of good quality, but that current management of water resources was ineffective. Nearly all interviewees were aware of climate change and thought it to be anthropogenic. May reported experiencing higher temperatures, precipitation changes, and higher water scarcity and attributed those fluctuations to climate change. 65% of interviewees were at least somewhat familiar with hydrological models, though only 28% had ever used them or their output. Even with model usage results being low, 100% of respondents believed hydrological models to be very useful water management tools. Understanding how water, climate change, and hydrological models are perceived by this population of people is essential to improving their water management practices in the face of climate change.

A Geological Report on an Area Five Miles Southeast of Renova, Montana, and on an Area Seven Miles South of Jefferson Island, Montana

This trip was conducted to give those students working for their respective degrees an excellent opportunity to work under actual field conditions. A total of three weeks was taken to complete the required work. Two weeks were spent in the field gathering data, and making maps, and the last week was spent in the drawing room at the college preparing the final map.

Rapid diagnostic tests for the home-based management of malaria, in a high-transmission area

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) are sometimes recommended to improve the home-based management of malaria. The accuracy of an RDT for the detection of clinical malaria and the presence of malarial parasites has recently been evaluated in a high-transmission area of southern Mali. During the same study, the cost-effectiveness of a 'test-and-treat' strategy for the home-based management of malaria (based on an artemisinin-combination therapy) was compared with that of a 'treat-all' strategy. Overall, 301 patients, of all ages, each of whom had been considered a presumptive case of uncomplicated malaria by a village healthworker, were checked with a commercial RDT (Paracheck-Pf). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of this test, compared with the results of microscopy and two different definitions of clinical malaria, were then determined. The RDT was found to be 82.9% sensitive (with a 95% confidence interval of 78.0%-87.1%) and 78.9% (63.9%-89.7%) specific compared with the detection of parasites by microscopy. In the detection of clinical malaria, it was 95.2% (91.3%-97.6%) sensitive and 57.4% (48.2%-66.2%) specific compared with a general practitioner's diagnosis of the disease, and 100.0% (94.5%-100.0%) sensitive but only 30.2% (24.8%-36.2%) specific when compared against the fulfillment of the World Health Organization's (2003) research criteria for uncomplicated malaria. Among children aged 0-5 years, the cost of the 'test-and-treat' strategy, per episode, was about twice that of the 'treat-all' (U.S.$1.0. v. U.S.$0.5). In older subjects, however, the two strategies were equally costly (approximately U.S.$2/episode). In conclusion, for children aged 0-5 years in a high-transmission area of sub-Saharan Africa, use of the RDT was not cost-effective compared with the presumptive treatment of malaria with an ACT. In older patients, use of the RDT did not reduce costs. The question remains whether either of the strategies investigated can be made affordable for the affected population.

Impacts of out-migration on land management in mountain areas

INTRODUCTION Out-migration from mountain areas is leaving behind half families and elderly to deal with managing the land alongside daily life challenges. A potential reduction of labour force as well as expertise on cropping practices, maintenance of terraces and irrigation canals, slope stabilization, grazing, forest and other land management practices are further challenged by changing climate conditions and increased environmental threats. An understanding of the resilience of managed land resources in order to enhance adaptation to environmental and socio-economic variability, and evidence of the impact of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) on the mitigation of environmental threats have so far not sufficiently been tackled. The study presented here aims to find out how land management in mountains is being affected by migration in the context of natural hazards and climate change in two study sites, namely Quillacollo District of Bolivia and Panchase area of Western Nepal, and which measures are needed to increase resilience of livelihoods and land management practices. The presentation includes draft results from first field work periods in both sites. A context of high vulnerability According to UNISDR, vulnerability is defined as “the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard”.Hazards are another threat affecting people’s livelihood in mountainous area. They can be either natural or human induced. Landslides, debris flow and flood are affecting peopleGood land management can significantly reduce occurrence of hazards. In the opposite bad land management or land abandonment can lead to negative consequences on the land, and thus again increase vulnerability of people’s livelihoods. METHODS The study integrates bio-physical and socio-economic data through a case study as well as a mapping approach. From the social sciences, well-tested participatory qualitative methodologies, typically used in Vulnerability and Capacity Analyses, such as semi-structured interviews with so-called ‘key informants’, transect walks, participatory risk and social resource mapping are applied. The bio-physical analysis of the current environmental conditions determining hazards and structural vulnerability are obtained from remote sensing analysis, field work studies, and GIS analysis The assessment of the consequences of migration in the area of origin is linked with a mapping and appraisal of land management practices (www.wocat.net, Schwilch et al., 2011). The WOCAT mapping tool (WOCAT/LADA/DESIRE 2008) allows capturing the major land management practices / technologies, their spread, effectiveness and impact within a selected area. Data drawn from a variety of sources are compiled and harmonised by a team of experts, consisting of land degradation and conservation specialists working in consultation with land users from various backgrounds. The specialists’ and land users’ knowledge is combined with existing datasets and documents (maps, GIS layers, high-resolution satellite images, etc.) in workshops that are designed to build consensus regarding the variables used to assess land degradation and SLM. This process is also referred to as participatory expert assessment or consensus mapping. The WOCAT mapping and SLM documentation methodologies are used together with participatory mapping and other socio-economic data collection (interviews, questionnaires, focus group discussions, expert consultation) to combine information about migration types and land management issues. GIS and other spatial visualization tools (e.g. Google maps) will help to represent and understand these links. FIRST RESULTS Nepal In Nepal, migration is a common strategy to improve the livelihoods. Migrants are mostly men and they migrate to other Asian countries, first to India and then to the Gulf countries. Only a few women are migrating abroad. Women migrate essentially to main Nepali cities when they can afford it. Remittances are used primarily for food and education; however they are hardly used for agricultural purposes. Besides traditional agriculture being maintained, only few new practices are emerging, such as vegetable farming or agroforestry. The land abandonment is a growing consequence of outmigration, resulting in the spreading of invasive species. However, most impacts of migration on land management are not yet clear. Moreover, education is a major concern for the respondents; they want their children having a better education and get better opportunities. Linked to this, unemployment is another major concern of the respondents, which in turn is “solved” through outmigration. Bolivia Migration is a common livelihood strategy in Bolivia. In the area of study, whole families are migrating downward to the cities of the valleys or to other departments of Bolivia, especially to Chapare (tropics) for the coca production and to Santa Cruz. Some young people are migrating abroad, mostly to Argentina. There are few remittances and if those are sent to the families in the mountain areas, then they are mainly used for agriculture purpose. The impacts of migration on land management practices are not clear although there are some important aspects to be underlined. The people who move downward are still using their land and coming back during part of the week to work on it. As a consequence of this multi-residency, there is a tendency to reduce land management work or to change the way the land is used. As in Nepal, education is a very important issue in this area. There is no secondary school, and only one community has a primary school. After the 6th grade students have therefore to go down into the valley towns to study. The lack of basic education is pushing more and more people to move down and to leave the mountains. CONCLUSIONS This study is on-going, more data have to be collected to clearly assess the impacts of out-migration on land management in mountain areas. The first results of the study allow us to present a few interesting findings. The two case studies are very different, however in both areas, young people are not staying anymore in the mountains and leave behind half families and elderly to manage the land. Additionally in both cases education is a major reason for moving out, even though the causes are not always the same. More specifically, in the case of Nepal, the use of remittances underlines the fact that investment in agriculture is not the first choice of a family. In the case of Bolivia, some interesting findings showed that people continue to work on their lands even if they move downward. The further steps of the study will help to explore these interesting issues in more detail. REFERENCES Schwilch G., Bestelmeyer B., Bunning S., Critchley W., Herrick J., Kellner K., Liniger H.P., Nachtergaele F., Ritsema C.J., Schuster B., Tabo R., van Lynden G., Winslow M. 2011. Experiences in Monitoring and Assessment of Sustainable Land Management. Land Degradation & Development 22 (2), 214-225. Doi 10.1002/ldr.1040 WOCAT/LADA/DESIRE 2008. A Questionnaire for Mapping Land Degradation and Sustainable Land Management. Liniger H.P., van Lynden G., Nachtergaele F., Schwilch G. (eds), Centre for Development and Environment, Institute of Geography, University of Berne, Berne

A Conceptual Model to Combine Creativity Techniques with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Enhanced Knowledge Management

This chapter introduces a conceptual model to combine creativity techniques with fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) and aims to support knowledge management methods by improving expert knowledge acquisition and aggregation. The aim of the conceptual model is to represent acquired knowledge in a manner that is as computer-understandable as possible with the intention of developing automated reasoning in the future as part of intelligent information systems. The formal represented knowledge thus may provide businesses with intelligent information integration. To this end, we introduce and evaluate various creativity techniques with a list of attributes to define the most suitable to combine with FCMs. This proposed combination enables enhanced knowledge management through the acquisition and representation of expert knowledge with FCMs. Our evaluation indicates that the creativity technique known as mind mapping is the most suitable technique in our set. Finally, a scenario from stakeholder management demonstrates the combination of mind mapping with FCMs as an integrated system.

Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management

The main goals of this study were to identifythe alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.

Upper Ewaso Ngiro River Basin Water Management Information Platform: Survey on Development priorities, Information Needs and Conflict Management Efforts

A survey of development priorities and needs for water related information, including information on Water User Associations

Decision-Support tools for assessing land degradation and realising sustainable land management, Study Case of El Mkhachbiya Catchment, Northwest of Tunisia

Land degradation is intrinsically complex and involves decisions by many agencies and individuals, land degradation map- ping should be used as a learning tool through which managers, experts and stakeholders can re-examine their views within a wider semantic context. In this paper, we introduce an analytical framework for mapping land degradation, developed by World Overview for Conservation Approaches and technologies (WOCAT) programs, which aims to develop some thematic maps that serve as an useful tool and including effective information on land degradation and conservation status. Consequently, this methodology would provide an important background for decision-making in order to launch rehabilitation/remediation actions in high-priority intervention areas. As land degradation mapping is a problem-solving task that aims to provide clear information, this study entails the implementation of WOCAT mapping tool, which integrate a set of indicators to appraise the severity of land degradation across a representative watershed. So this work focuses on the use of the most relevant indicators for measuring impacts of different degradation processes in El Mkhachbiya catchment, situated in Northwest of Tunisia and those actions taken to deal with them based on the analysis of operating modes and issues of degradation in different land use systems. This study aims to provide a database for surveillance and monitoring of land degradation, in order to support stakeholders in making appropriate choices and judge guidelines and possible suitable recommendations to remedy the situation in order to promote sustainable development. The approach is illustrated through a case study of an urban watershed in Northwest of Tunisia. Results showed that the main land degradation drivers in the study area were related to natural processes, which were exacerbated by human activities. So the output of this analytical framework enabled a better communication of land degradation issues and concerns in a way relevant for policymakers.

Enhanced Knowledge Management by Synchronizing Mind Maps and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

This paper presents a conceptual approach to enhance knowledge management by synchronizing mind maps and fuzzy cognitive maps. The use of mind maps allows taking advantage of human creativity, while the application of fuzzy cognitive maps enables to store information expressed in natural language. By applying cognitive computing, it makes possible to gather and extract relevant information out of a data pool. Therefore, this approach is supposed to give a framework that enhances knowledge management. To demonstrate the potential of this framework, a use case concerning the development of a smart city app is presented.

Prioridades de manejo del riesgo de contaminación del recurso hídrico por efluentes

En el presente trabajo se propone y desarrolla una herramienta de "Gestión del riesgo de contaminación del recurso hídrico", inspirada en métodos comúnmente utilizados en las evaluaciones de impacto ambiental tales como la Matriz de importancia y la Evaluación de riesgo. Dicha herramienta se aplica en el oasis del río Tunuyán Inferior, cuya cuenca se localiza en el sector E de la Cordillera de Los Andes, provincia de Mendoza, Argentina. El método propuesto consiste en la determinación, en cada Unidad de Manejo (UM)3 de: 1. la vulnerabilidad del territorio; 2. la peligrosidad del efluente; 3. las clases de riesgo; 4. el índice prioridad de manejo del riesgo, variables que luego se traducen cartográficamente. Las bases de datos generadas pueden ser analizadas desde distintos enfoques y, a su vez, actualizadas a medida que se van profundizando los conocimientos acerca de los atributos que hacen a la peligrosidad del vertido (ej.: tipo de efluente, tiempo, caudal y lugar de descarga) y a la vulnerabilidad de la UM (ej.: tipo de acuífero, profundidad de nivel freático, permeabilidad del terreno, calidad del suelo, etc.). Esta herramienta de gestión genera un diagnóstico dinámico de la situación, ya que puede ser perfeccionado a través de la investigación de las variables que intervienen en el proceso de contaminación del agua por efluentes. Además, es una herramienta práctica porque jerarquiza las prioridades de gestión, de acuerdo con un orden de aplicación gradual de medidas de manejo del riesgo de contaminación. Teniendo en cuenta la tendencia mundial de reducción de glaciares por efecto del calentamiento global y su impacto negativo en los caudales de los ríos, es indispensable y urgente establecer prioridades de gestión para preservar la calidad del recurso hídrico.

El CIFOT como apoyo a la tarea empresarial : the CIFOT as support to the business task

Empresas como HEXA S.A. desean introducir SIG como elemento para incrementar el valor agregado de los proyectos de consultoría que realizan. Tal es el caso del trabajo encomendado por ellos al CIFOT titulado Esquema hidromorfológico de la cuenca del río Tunuyán Superior y clasificación de Usos del Suelo del Oasis Centro Oeste; Provincia de Mendoza. Se unifica en un único modelo digital una serie de cartas topográficas (IGM) digitalizan diversos niveles de información (curvas de nivel, hidrografía de la cuenca del río Tunuyán), red de caminos y su jerarquía. A partir de la base de datos lograda, se generan mapas temáticos de cada cuenca, apoyados con imágenes satelitales Landsat TM, que permiten identificar cobertura nivo- glacial y usos del suelo en el Oasis. Con esta información la empresa obtiene un modelo de simulación del Río Tunuyán para predecir el caudal que conduciría el río ante determinadas nevadas, por ejemplo. Se propone además un modelo de SIG para el monitoreo de la zona.

Cambio de uso del suelo en los geosistemas de la cuenca costera del río Boroa (Chile) entre 1994 y 2004

Se analizaron los principales cambios de uso del suelo en las unidades de paisaje (geosistemas) de la cuenca hidrográfica del río Boroa entre 1994 y 2004. Para ello se planteó la hipótesis de que los cambios en la estructura del paisaje han sido conducidos fundamentalmente por acción antrópica generando importantes alteraciones en el paisaje ecológico. Se utilizaron mapas categóricos de uso/cobertura de suelo elaborados con material cartográfico y fotografías aéreas con su posterior corrección en terreno, información que fue complementada con el análisis geomorfológico y de unidades ambientales de la cuenca. Se comprobó una fuerte variación en la superficie de plantaciones forestales (principalmente Eucalyptus spp.), con una tasa de incremento anual que varió entre 3,2 y 28%, asociado principalmente a reconversión de uso y ocupación de cordones montañosos metamórficos. A su vez, se constató la expansión de zonas de humedales en terrenos anegadizos de llanuras, todo lo cual ha reducido la superficie total con destino agrícola en 61%, transformando el paisaje en un periodo de sólo diez años. Estos cambios se discuten sobre la base de una combinación de factores económicos, legales y ambientales, concluyendo que el factor humano ha sido el principal responsable de la conducción de los cambios de uso del suelo en la cuenca del río Boroa.