Impact of cyclones on sea ice in the Fram Strait: numerical simulations and observations

The sea ice export from the Arctic is of global importance due to its fresh water which influences the oceanic stratification and, thus, the global thermohaline circulation. This study deals with the effect of cyclones on sea ice and sea ice transport in particular on the basis of observations from two field experiments FRAMZY 1999 and FRAMZY 2002 in April 1999 and March 2002 as well as on the basis of simulations with a numerical sea ice model. The simulations realised by a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model are forced with 6-hourly atmospheric ECMWF- analyses (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and 6-hourly oceanic data of a MPI-OM-simulation (Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model). Comparing the observed and simulated variability of the sea ice drift and of the position of the ice edge shows that the chosen configuration of the model is appropriate for the performed studies. The seven observed cyclones change the position of the ice edge up to 100 km and cause an extensive decrease of sea ice coverage by 2 % up to more than 10 %. The decrease is only simulated by the model if the ocean current is strongly divergent in the centre of the cyclone. The impact is remarkable of the ocean current on divergence and shear deformation of the ice drift. As shown by sensitivity studies the ocean current at a depth of 6 m – the sea ice model is forced with – is mainly responsible for the ascertained differences between simulation and observation. The simulated sea ice transport shows a strong variability on a time scale from hours to days. Local minima occur in the time series of the ice transport during periods with Fram Strait cyclones. These minima are not caused by the local effect of the cyclone’s wind field, but mainly by the large-scale pattern of surface pressure. A displacement of the areas of strongest cyclone activity in the Nordic Seas would considerably influence the ice transport.

Reconstructing paleosalinity from δ18O: coupled model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum, Last Interglacial and Late Holocene

Reconstructions of salinity are used to diagnose changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean circulation. A widely used method of determining past salinity uses oxygen isotope (δOw) residuals after the extraction of the global ice volume and temperature components. This method relies on a constant relationship between δOw and salinity throughout time. Here we use the isotope-enabled fully coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) HadCM3 to test the application of spatially and time-independent relationships in the reconstruction of past ocean salinity. Simulations of the Late Holocene (LH), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Last Interglacial (LIG) climates are performed and benchmarked against existing compilations of stable oxygen isotopes in carbonates (δOc), which primarily reflect δOw and temperature. We find that HadCM3 produces an accurate representation of the surface ocean δOc distribution for the LH and LGM. Our simulations show considerable variability in spatial and temporal δOw-salinity relationships. Spatial gradients are generally shallower but within ∼50% of the actual simulated LH to LGM and LH to LIG temporal gradients and temporal gradients calculated from multi-decadal variability are generally shallower than both spatial and actual simulated gradients. The largest sources of uncertainty in salinity reconstructions are found to be caused by changes in regional freshwater budgets, ocean circulation, and sea ice regimes. These can cause errors in salinity estimates exceeding 4 psu. Our results suggest that paleosalinity reconstructions in the South Atlantic, Indian and Tropical Pacific Oceans should be most robust, since these regions exhibit relatively constant δOw-salinity relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Largest uncertainties will affect North Atlantic and high latitude paleosalinity reconstructions. Finally, the results show that it is difficult to generate reliable salinity estimates for regions of dynamic oceanography, such as the North Atlantic, without additional constraints.

Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations

Heavy precipitation affected Central Europe in May/June 2013, triggering damaging floods both on the Danube and the Elbe rivers. Based on a modelling approach with COSMO-CLM, moisture fluxes, backward trajectories, cyclone tracks and precipitation fields are evaluated for the relevant time period 30 May–2 June 2013. We identify potential moisture sources and quantify their contribution to the flood event focusing on the Danube basin through sensitivity experiments: Control simulations are performed with undisturbed ERA-Interim boundary conditions, while multiple sensitivity experiments are driven with modified evaporation characteristics over selected marine and land areas. Two relevant cyclones are identified both in reanalysis and in our simulations, which moved counter-clockwise in a retrograde path from Southeastern Europe over Eastern Europe towards the northern slopes of the Alps. The control simulations represent the synoptic evolution of the event reasonably well. The evolution of the precipitation event in the control simulations shows some differences in terms of its spatial and temporal characteristics compared to observations. The main precipitation event can be separated into two phases concerning the moisture sources. Our modelling results provide evidence that the two main sources contributing to the event were the continental evapotranspiration (moisture recycling; both phases) and the North Atlantic Ocean (first phase only). The Mediterranean Sea played only a minor role as a moisture source. This study confirms the importance of continental moisture recycling for heavy precipitation events over Central Europe during the summer half year.

How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption?

In the event of a volcanic eruption the decision to close airspace is based on forecast ash maps, produced using volcanic ash transport and dispersion models. In this paper we quantitatively evaluate the spatial skill of volcanic ash simulations using satellite retrievals of ash from the Eyja allajökull eruption during the period from 7 to 16 May 2010. We find that at the start of this period, 7–10 May, the model (FLEXible PARTicle) has excellent skill and can predict the spatial distribution of the satellite-retrieved ash to within 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ latitude/longitude. However, on 10 May there is a decrease in the spatial accuracy of the model to 2.5∘× 2.5∘ latitude/longitude, and between 11 and 12 May the simulated ash location errors grow rapidly. On 11 May ash is located close to a bifurcation point in the atmosphere, resulting in a rapid divergence in the modeled and satellite ash locations. In general, the model skill reduces as the residence time of ash increases. However, the error growth is not always steady. Rapid increases in error growth are linked to key points in the ash trajectories. Ensemble modeling using perturbed meteorological data would help to represent this uncertainty, and assimilation of satellite ash data would help to reduce uncertainty in volcanic ash forecasts.

Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

Climatic simulations of the eastern Andes low-level jet and its dependency on convective parameterizations

The South American low level jet (SALLJ) of the Eastern Andes is investigated with Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations during the 2002-2003 austral summer using two convective parameterizations (Grell and Emanuel). The simulated SALLJ is compared with the special observations of SALLJEX (SALLJ Experiment). Both the Grell and Emanuel schemes adequately simulate the low level flow over South America. However, there are some intensity differences. Due to the larger (smaller) convective activity, the Emanuel (Grell) scheme simulates more intense (weaker) low level wind than analysis in the tropics and subtropics. The objectives criteria of Sugahara (SJ) and Bonner (BJ) were used for LLJ identification. When applied to the observations, both criteria suggest a larger frequency of the SALLJ in Santa Cruz, followed by Mariscal, Trinidad and Asuncin. In Mariscal and Asuncin, the diurnal cycle indicates that SJ occurs mainly at 12 UTCs (morning), while the BJ criterion presents the SALLJ as more homogenously distributed. The concentration into two of the four-times-a-day observations does not allow conclusions about the diurnal cycle in Santa Cruz and Trinidad. The simulated wind profiles result in a lower than observed frequency of SALLJ using both the SJ and BJ criteria, with fewer events obtained with the BJ. Due to the stronger simulated winds, the Emanuel scheme produces an equal or greater relative frequency of SALLJ than the Grell scheme. However, the Grell scheme using the SJ criterion simulates the SALLJ diurnal cycle closer to the observed one. Although some discrepancies between observed and simulated mean vertical profiles of the horizontal wind are noted, there is large agreement between the composites of the vertical structure of the SALLJ, especially when the SJ criterion is used with the Grell scheme. On an intraseasonal scale, a larger southward displacement of SALLJ in February and December when compared with January has been noted. The Grell and Emanuel schemes simulated this observed oscillation in the low-level flow. However, the spatial pattern and intensity of rainfall and circulation anomalies simulated by the Grell scheme are closer to the analyses than those obtained with the Emanuel scheme.

IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system

This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) 1979-2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981-2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081-2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the intertropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MI-ROC3.2-hires, MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS`s characteristics such as onset, duration, total monsoonal precipitation, and its interannual variability. On the other hand, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS OF RECONNECTION AND PARTICLE ACCELERATION: THREE-DIMENSIONAL EFFECTS

Magnetic fields can change their topology through a process known as magnetic reconnection. This process in not only important for understanding the origin and evolution of the large-scale magnetic field, but is seen as a possibly efficient particle accelerator producing cosmic rays mainly through the first-order Fermi process. In this work we study the properties of particle acceleration inserted in reconnection zones and show that the velocity component parallel to the magnetic field of test particles inserted in magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) domains of reconnection without including kinetic effects, such as pressure anisotropy, the Hall term, or anomalous effects, increases exponentially. Also, the acceleration of the perpendicular component is always possible in such models. We find that within contracting magnetic islands or current sheets the particles accelerate predominantly through the first-order Fermi process, as previously described, while outside the current sheets and islands the particles experience mostly drift acceleration due to magnetic field gradients. Considering two-dimensional MHD models without a guide field, we find that the parallel acceleration stops at some level. This saturation effect is, however, removed in the presence of an out-of-plane guide field or in three-dimensional models. Therefore, we stress the importance of the guide field and fully three-dimensional studies for a complete understanding of the process of particle acceleration in astrophysical reconnection environments.

Hydrodynamical simulations of Galactic fountains - I. Evolution of single fountains

The ejection of the gas out of the disc in late-type galaxies is related to star formation and is due mainly to Type II supernovae. In this paper, we studied in detail the development of the Galactic fountains in order to understand their dynamical evolution and their influence on the redistribution of the freshly delivered metals over the disc. To this aim, we performed a number of 3D hydrodynamical radiative cooling simulations of the gas in the Milky Way where the whole Galaxy structure, the Galactic differential rotation and the supernova explosions generated by a single OB association are considered. A typical fountain powered by 100 Type II supernovae may eject material up to similar to 2 kpc which than collapses back mostly in the form of dense, cold clouds and filaments. The majority of the gas lifted up by the fountains falls back on the disc remaining within a radial distance Delta R = 0.5 kpc from the place where the fountain originated. This localized circulation of disc gas does not influence the radial chemical gradients on large scale, as required by the chemical models of the Milky Way which reproduce the metallicity distribution without invoking large fluxes of metals. Simulations of multiple fountains fuelled by Type II supernovae of different OB associations will be presented in a companion paper.

Tomographic Simulations of accretion disks in cataclysmic variables - Flickering and wind

Both continuum and emission line flickering are phenomena directly associated with the mass-accretion process. In this work we simulated accretion-disk Doppler maps, including the effects of winds and flickering flares. Synthetic flickering Doppler maps were calculated and the effect of the flickering parameters on the maps was explored. Jets and winds occur in many astrophysical objects where accretion disks are present. Jets are generally absent among the cataclysmic variables (CVs), but there is evidence of mass loss by wind in many objects. CVs are ideal objects to study accretion disks, and consequently to study the wind associated with these disks. We also present simulations of accretion disks, including the presence of a wind with orbital phase resolution. Synthetic Ha line profiles in the optical region were obtained and their corresponding Doppler maps were calculated. The effect of the wind simulation parameters on the wind line profiles was also explored. From this study we verified that optically thick lines and/or emission by diffuse material into the primary Roche lobe are necessary to generate single peaked line profiles, often seen in CVs. The future accounting of these effects is suggested for interpreting Doppler tomography reconstructions.

SIMULATIONS OF WINDS OF WEAK-LINED T TAURI STARS. II. THE EFFECTS OF A TILTED MAGNETOSPHERE AND PLANETARY INTERACTIONS

Based on our previous work, we investigate here the effects on the wind and magnetospheric structures of weak-lined T Tauri stars due to a misalignment between the axis of rotation of the star and its magnetic dipole moment vector. In such a configuration, the system loses the axisymmetry presented in the aligned case, requiring a fully three-dimensional (3D) approach. We perform 3D numerical magnetohydrodynamic simulations of stellar winds and study the effects caused by different model parameters, namely the misalignment angle theta(t), the stellar period of rotation, the plasma-beta, and the heating index.. Our simulations take into account the interplay between the wind and the stellar magnetic field during the time evolution. The system reaches a periodic behavior with the same rotational period of the star. We show that the magnetic field lines present an oscillatory pattern. Furthermore, we obtain that by increasing theta(t), the wind velocity increases, especially in the case of strong magnetic field and relatively rapid stellar rotation. Our 3D, time-dependent wind models allow us to study the interaction of a magnetized wind with a magnetized extrasolar planet. Such interaction gives rise to reconnection, generating electrons that propagate along the planet`s magnetic field lines and produce electron cyclotron radiation at radio wavelengths. The power released in the interaction depends on the planet`s magnetic field intensity, its orbital radius, and on the stellar wind local characteristics. We find that a close-in Jupiter-like planet orbiting at 0.05 AU presents a radio power that is similar to 5 orders of magnitude larger than the one observed in Jupiter, which suggests that the stellar wind from a young star has the potential to generate strong planetary radio emission that could be detected in the near future with LOFAR. This radio power varies according to the phase of rotation of the star. For three selected simulations, we find a variation of the radio power of a factor 1.3-3.7, depending on theta(t). Moreover, we extend the investigation done in Vidotto et al. and analyze whether winds from misaligned stellar magnetospheres could cause a significant effect on planetary migration. Compared to the aligned case, we show that the timescale tau(w) for an appreciable radial motion of the planet is shorter for larger misalignment angles. While for the aligned case tau(w) similar or equal to 100 Myr, for a stellar magnetosphere tilted by theta(t) = 30 degrees, tau(w) ranges from similar to 40 to 70 Myr for a planet located at a radius of 0.05 AU. Further reduction on tau(w) might occur for even larger misalignment angles and/or different wind parameters.

Hydrodynamical simulations of Galactic fountains - II. Evolution of multiple fountains

The ejection of gas out of the disc in late-type galaxies is related to star formation and is mainly due to the explosion of Type II supernovae (SN II). In a previous paper, we considered the evolution of a single Galactic fountain, that is, a fountain powered by a single SN cluster. Using three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations, we studied in detail the fountain flow and its dependence with several factors, such as the Galactic rotation, the distance to the Galactic centre and the presence of a hot gaseous halo. As a natural followup, this paper investigates the dynamical evolution of multiple generations of fountains generated by similar to 100 OB associations. We have considered the observed size-frequency distribution of young stellar clusters within the Galaxy in order to appropriately fuel the multiple fountains in our simulations. Most of the results of the previous paper have been confirmed, like for example the formation of intermediate velocity clouds above the disc by the multiple fountains. Also, this work confirms the localized nature of the fountain flows: the freshly ejected metals tend to fall back close to the same Galactocentric region where they are delivered. Therefore, the fountains do not change significantly the radial profile of the disc chemical abundance. The multiple fountain simulations also allowed us to consistently calculate the feedback of the star formation on the halo gas. We found that the hot gas gains about 10 per cent of all the SN II energy produced in the disc. Thus, the SN feedback more than compensate for the halo radiative losses and allow for a quasi steady-state disc-halo circulation to exist. Finally, we have also considered the possibility of mass infall from the intergalactic medium and its interaction with the clouds that are formed by the fountains. Though our simulations are not suitable to reproduce the slow rotational pattern that is typically observed in the haloes around the disc galaxies, they indicate that the presence of an external gas infall may help to slow down the rotation of the gas in the clouds and thus the amount of angular momentum that they transfer to the coronal gas, as previously suggested in the literature.