Preface: Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning

This special issue of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) contains eight papers presented as oral or poster contributions in the Natural Hazards NH-1.2 session on"Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning", held at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, on 13-18 April 2008. The aim of the session was to provide an international forum for presenting new results and for discussing innovative ideas and concepts on extreme hydro-meteorological events, including: (i) the assessment of the risk posed by the extreme events, (ii) the expected changes in the frequency and intensity of the events driven by a changing climate and by multiple human- induced causes, (iii) new modelling approaches and original forecasting methods to predict extreme events and their consequences, and (iv) strategies for hazard mitigation and risk reduction, and for a improved adaptation to extreme hydro-meteorological events ...

Dynamic application development in Symbian OS

Diplomityössä tutkitaan, kuinka Symbian-sovelluskehitystä voitaisiin tehostaa. Työssä esitellään Symbian-käyttöjärjestelmä, sekä pohditaan haasteita ja rajoitteita joita Symbian sovelluskehityksessä kohdataan. Myöskin jo olemassa olevia kehitystapoja pohditaan työn tavoitteen kannalta. Symbian-sovelluskehityksessä tehdään toistuvasti samoja asioita. Koska Symbian on avoin käyttöjärjestelmä, sovelluskehittäjiä on paljon. Tehokkaamman kehitystavan löytäminen säästäisi paljon resursseja. Tällä hetkellä perinteiset ohjelmointitavat näyttävät olevan suosituin tapa kehittää sovelluksia. Kuitenkin on jo olemassa useita ratkaisuja, jotka pyrkivät tehostamaan sovelluskehitystä, mikä todistaa tarpeen kehittää tehokkuutta. Työssä toteutettu systeemi ajaa Symbian sovelluksia XML-määrityksen pohjalta. Kun käytetään XML-määritystä C++-koodin sijasta, sovelluskehitys muuttuu. Näiden muutosten täytyy kuitenkin olla myönteisiä, eivätkä ne saa haitata ohjelmiston laatua tai käytettävyyttä.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Forecasting a language shift based on cellular automata

Language extinction as a consequence of language shifts is a widespread social phenomenon that affects several million people all over the world today. An important task for social sciences research should therefore be to gain an understanding of language shifts, especially as a way of forecasting the extinction or survival of threatened languages, i.e., determining whether or not the subordinate language will survive in communities with a dominant and a subordinate language. In general, modeling is usually a very difficult task in the social sciences, particularly when it comes to forecasting the values of variables. However, the cellular automata theory can help us overcome this traditional difficulty. The purpose of this article is to investigate language shifts in the speech behavior of individuals using the methodology of the cellular automata theory. The findings on the dynamics of social impacts in the field of social psychology and the empirical data from language surveys on the use of Catalan in Valencia allowed us to define a cellular automaton and carry out a set of simulations using that automaton. The simulation results highlighted the key factors in the progression or reversal of a language shift and the use of these factors allowed us to forecast the future of a threatened language in a bilingual community.

Dynamic Capabilities and Real Options

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli selvittää dynaamisten kyvykkyyksien teorian kehittymistä ja nykytilaa. Työssä tarkastellaan myös mahdollisuuksia yhdistää reaalioptioajattelua ja dynaamisten kyvykkyyksien teoriaa. Tutkielma on toteutettu teoreettisena kirjallisuuskatsauksena. Dynaamisten kyvykkyyksien teorian mukaan muuttuvassa toimintaympäristössä yritysten kilpailuetu perustuu kykyyn rakentaa, yhdistää ja muokata resursseja ja kyvykkyyksiä. Yritysten täytyy pystyä löytämään, sulauttamaan ja muuntamaan tietoa voidakseen tunnistaa uusia mahdollisuuksia ja pystyäkseen reagoimaan niihin. Tutkielma tuo esille uusia yhteyksiä dynaamisten kyvykkyyksien teorian ja yritysten käyttäytymisen välillä. Reaalioptioajattelu auttaa tunnistamaan yrityksen rajojen määrittämiseen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Työssä tehdään ehdotuksia dynaamisten kyvykkyyksien teorian jatkotutkimusta varten.

Dynamic Criteria: a Longitudinal Analysis of Professional Basketball Players" Outcomes

This paper describes the fluctuations of temporal criteria dynamics in the context of professional sport. Specifically, we try to verify the underlying deterministic patterns in the outcomes of professional basketball players. We use a longitudinal approach based on the analysis of the outcomes of 94 basketball players over ten years, covering practically players" entire career development. Time series were analyzed with techniques derived from nonlinear dynamical systems theory. These techniques analyze the underlying patterns in outcomes without previous shape assumptions (linear or nonlinear). These techniques are capable of detecting an intermediate situation between randomness and determinism, called chaos. So they are very useful for the study of dynamic criteria in organizations. We have found most players (88.30%) have a deterministic pattern in their outcomes, and most cases are chaotic (81.92%). Players with chaotic patterns have higher outcomes than players with linear patterns. Moreover, players with power forward and center positions achieve better results than other players. The high number of chaotic patterns found suggests caution when appraising individual outcomes, when coaches try to find the appropriate combination of players to design a competitive team, and other personnel decisions. Management efforts must be made to assume this uncertainty.

Dynamic arrest in polymer melts: competition between packing and intramolecular barriers

We present molecular dynamics simulations of a simple model for polymer melts with intramolecular barriers. We investigate structural relaxation as a function of the barrier strength. Dynamic correlators can be consistently analyzed within the framework of the mode coupling theory of the glass transition. Control parameters are tuned in order to induce a competition between general packing effects and polymer-specific intramolecular barriers as mechanisms for dynamic arrest. This competition yields unusually large values of the so-called mode coupling theory exponent parameter and rationalizes qualitatively different observations for simple bead-spring and realistic polymers. The systematic study of the effect of intramolecular barriers presented here also establishes a fundamental difference between the nature of the glass transition in polymers and in simple glass formers.

Dynamic single cell measurements of kinase activity by synthetic kinase activity relocation sensors.

BACKGROUND: Mitogen activated protein kinases (MAPK) play an essential role in integrating extra-cellular signals and intra-cellular cues to allow cells to grow, adapt to stresses, or undergo apoptosis. Budding yeast serves as a powerful system to understand the fundamental regulatory mechanisms that allow these pathways to combine multiple signals and deliver an appropriate response. To fully comprehend the variability and dynamics of these signaling cascades, dynamic and quantitative single cell measurements are required. Microscopy is an ideal technique to obtain these data; however, novel assays have to be developed to measure the activity of these cascades. RESULTS: We have generated fluorescent biosensors that allow the real-time measurement of kinase activity at the single cell level. Here, synthetic MAPK substrates were engineered to undergo nuclear-to-cytoplasmic relocation upon phosphorylation of a nuclear localization sequence. Combination of fluorescence microscopy and automated image analysis allows the quantification of the dynamics of kinase activity in hundreds of single cells. A large heterogeneity in the dynamics of MAPK activity between individual cells was measured. The variability in the mating pathway can be accounted for by differences in cell cycle stage, while, in the cell wall integrity pathway, the response to cell wall stress is independent of cell cycle stage. CONCLUSIONS: These synthetic kinase activity relocation sensors allow the quantification of kinase activity in live single cells. The modularity of the architecture of these reporters will allow their application in many other signaling cascades. These measurements will allow to uncover new dynamic behaviour that previously could not be observed in population level measurements.

Factors Affecting the Forecasting Accuracy of Diffusion Models

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tarkastella innovaatioiden leviämismallien ennustetarkkuuteen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Tutkielmassa ennustettiin logistisella mallilla matkapuhelinliittymien leviämistä kolmessa Euroopan maassa: Suomessa, Ranskassa ja Kreikassa. Teoriaosa keskittyi innovaatioiden leviämisen ennustamiseen leviämismallien avulla. Erityisesti painotettiin mallien ennustuskykyä ja niiden käytettävyyttä eri tilanteissa. Empiirisessä osassa keskityttiin ennustamiseen logistisella leviämismallilla, joka kalibroitiin eri tavoin koostetuilla aikasarjoilla. Näin tehtyjä ennusteita tarkasteltiin tiedon kokoamistasojen vaikutusten selvittämiseksi. Tutkimusasetelma oli empiirinen, mikä sisälsi logistisen leviämismallin ennustetarkkuuden tutkimista otosdatan kokoamistasoa muunnellen. Leviämismalliin syötettävä data voidaan kerätä kuukausittain ja operaattorikohtaisesti vaikuttamatta ennustetarkkuuteen. Dataan on sisällytettävä leviämiskäyrän käännöskohta, eli pitkän aikavälin huippukysyntäpiste.

The Dynamic Customer Portfolio Method in Customer Relationship Management

Tutkielman tavoitteena on määritellä keskeiset ja sopivat asiakasportfoliomallit ja asiakasmatriisit asiakassuhteen määrittämiseen. Tutkimus keskittyy asiakassuhteen arvottamiseen ja avainasiakkaiden määrittämiseen kohdeyrityksessä. Keskeisimmät ja sopivimmat asiakasportfliomallit huomioidaan asiakkaiden arvioinnissa. Tutkielman teoriaosassa esitellään tunnetuimmat ja käytetyimmät asiakasportfoliomallit ja matriisit alan kirjallisuuden perusteella. Tämän lisäksi asiakasportfoliomalleihin yhdistetään näkökulmia suhdemarkkinoinnin, asiakkuuksien johtamisen ja tuoteportfolioiden teorioista. Keskeisimmät kirjallisuuden lähteet ovat johtamisen ja markkinoinnin alalta. Tutkielman empiriaosassa esitellään kohdeyritys ja sen tämän hetkinen asiakassuhteiden johtamiskäytäntö. Lisäksi tehdään parannusehdotuksia kohdeyrityksen nykyiseen asiakassuhteiden arvottamismenetelmään jotta asiakassuhteiden arvon laskeminen vastaisi mahdollisimman hyvin kohdeyrityksen nykyisiä tarpeita. Asiakassuhteen arvon määrittämiseksi käytetään myös fokusryhmähaastattelua. Avainasiakkaat määritellään ja tilannetta havainnollistetaan sijoittamalla avainasiakkaat asiakasportfolioon.

Dynamic range extension of SiPM detectors with the time-gated operation

The silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) is a novel detector technology that has undergone a fast development in the last few years, owing to its single-photon resolution and ultra-fast response time. However, the typical high dark count rates of the sensor may prevent the detection of low intensity radiation fluxes. In this article, the time-gated operation with short active periods in the nanosecond range is proposed as a solution to reduce the number of cells fired due to noise and thus increase the dynamic range. The technique is aimed at application fields that function under a trigger command, such as gated fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy.

Cenozoic evolution of eastern Iberia: structural data and dynamic model.

Iberia underwent intraplate deformation during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. In eastem Ibena, compression took place during the Palaeogene and early Miocene, giving rise to the Iberian Chain, and extension started during the early Miocene in the coastal areas and the Valencia trough; during early Miocene compression continued in the western Iberian Chain whereas extension had started in the eastern Iberian Chain. From the kinematic data obtained from the major compressional and extensional structures formed dunng the Cenozoic, a simple dynamic model using Bott's (1959) formula is presented. The results show that both extension and compression may have been produced assuming a main horizontal stress-axis approximately N-S, in a similar direction that the convergence between Europe, Ibena and Afnca dunng the Cenozoic.

Partnering in the Dynamic Environment: The Role of Trust in Asymmetric Technology Partnership Formation

The purpose of this study was to increase the understanding of the role and nature of trust in asymmetric technology partnership formation. In the knowledge-based "learning race" knowledge is considered as a primary source for competitive advantage. In the emerging ICT sector the high pace of technological change, the convergence of technologies and industries as well as the increasing complexity and uncertainty have forced even the largest players to seek cooperation for complementary knowledge and capabilities. Small technology firms need the complementary resources and legitimacy of the large firms to grow and compete in the global market place. Most of the earlier research indicates, however, that partnerships with asymmetric size, managerial resources and cultures have failed. A basic assumption supported by earlier research was that trust is a critical factor in asymmetric technology partnership formation. Asymmetric technology partnership formation is a dynamic and multi-dimensional process, and consequently a holistic research approach was selected. Research issue was approached from different levels: the individual decision-maker, the firm and the relationship between the parties. Also the impact of the dynamic environment and technology content was analyzed. A multitheoretical approach and a qualitative research method with in-depth interviews in five large ICT companies and eight small ICT companies enabled a holistic and rich view of the research issue. Study contributes on the scarce understanding on the nature and evolution of trust in asymmetric technology partnership formation. It sheds also light on the specific nature of asymmetric technology partnerships. The partnerships were found to be tentative and the diverse strategic intent of small and large technology firms appeared as a major challenge. The role of the boundary spanner was highlighted as a possibility to match the incompatible organizational cultures. A shared vision was found to be a pre-condition for individual-based fast trust leading to intuitive decision-making and experimentation. The relationships were tentative and they were continuously re-evaluated through the key actors' sense making of the technology content, asymmetry and the dynamic environment. A multi-dimensional conceptualization for trust was created and propositions on the role and nature of trust for further research are given. The purpose of this study was to increase the understanding of the role and nature of trust in asymmetric technology partnership formation. In the knowledge-based "learning race" knowledge is considered as a primary source for competitive advantage. In the emerging ICT sector the high pace of technological change, the convergence of technologies and industries as well as the increasing complexity and uncertainty have forced even the largest players to seek cooperation for complementary knowledge and capabilities. Small technology firms need the complementary resources and legitimacy of the large firms to grow and compete in the global market place. Most of the earlier research indicates, however, that partnerships with asymmetric size, managerial resources and cultures have failed. A basic assumption supported by earlier research was that trust is a critical factor in asymmetric technology partnership formation. Asymmetric technology partnership formation is a dynamic and multi-dimensional process, and consequently a holistic research approach was selected. Research issue was approached from different levels: the individual decision-maker, the firm and the relationship between the parties. Also the impact of the dynamic environment and technology content was analyzed. A multitheoretical approach and a qualitative research method with in-depth interviews in five large ICT companies and eight small ICT companies enabled a holistic and rich view of the research issue. Study contributes on the scarce understanding on the nature and evolution of trust in asymmetric technology partnership formation. It sheds also light on the specific nature of asymmetric technology partnerships. The partnerships were found to be tentative and the diverse strategic intent of small and large technology firms appeared as a major challenge. The role of the boundary spanner was highlighted as a possibility to match the incompatible organizational cultures. A shared vision was found to be a pre-condition for individual-based fast trust leading to intuitive decision-making and experimentation. The relationships were tentative and they were continuously re-evaluated through the key actors' sense making of the technology content, asymmetry and the dynamic environment. A multi-dimensional conceptualization for trust was created and propositions on the role and nature of trust for further research are given.