Adapting to climate change impacts on water resources in England - an assessment of draft Water Resources Management Plans

Climate change is expected to produce reductions in water availability in England, potentially necessitating adaptive action by the water industry to maintain supplies. As part of Ofwat's fifth Periodic Review (PR09), water companies recently released their draft Water Resources Management Plans, setting out how each company intends to maintain the balance between the supply and demand for water over the next 25 years, following Environment Agency guidelines. This paper reviews these plans to determine company estimates of the impact of climate change on water supply relative to other resource pressures. The approaches adopted for incorporating the impact in the plans and the proposed management solutions are also identified. Climate change impacts for individual resource zones range from no reductions in deployable output to greater than 50% over the planning period. The estimated national aggregated loss of deployable output under a “core” climate scenario is ~520 Ml/d (3% of deployable output) by 2034/35, the equivalent of the supply of one entire water company (South West Water). Climate change is the largest single driver of change in water supplies over the planning period. Over half of the climate change impact is concentrated in southern England. In extreme cases, climate change uncertainty is of the same magnitude as the change under the core scenario (up to a loss of ~475 Ml/d). 44 of the 68 resource zones with available data are estimated to have a climate change impact. In 35 of these climate change has the greatest impact although in 10 zones sustainability reductions have a greater impact. Of the overall change in downward pressure on the supply-demand balance over the planning period, ~56% is accounted for by increased demand (620 Ml/d) and supply side climate change accounts for ~37% (407 Ml/d). Climate change impacts have a cumulative impact in concert with other changing supply side reducing components increasing the national pressure on the supply-demand balance. Whilst the magnitude of climate change appears to justify its explicit consideration, it is rare that adaptation options are planned solely in response to climate change but as a suite of options to provide a resilient supply to a range of pressures (including significant demand side pressures). Supply-side measures still tend to be considered by water companies to be more reliable than demand-side measures.

Genetic differentiation between hosts and locations in populations of latent Botrytis cinerea in southern England

This study tested the hypothesis that aggressive, localized infections and asymptomatic systemic infections were caused by distinct specialized groups of Botrytis cinerea, using microsatellite genotypes at nine loci of 243 isolates of B. cinerea obtained from four hosts (strawberry (Fragaria ´ananassa), blackberry (Rubus fruticosus agg.), dandelion, (Taraxacum of®- cinale agg.) and primrose (Primula vulgaris)) in three regions in southern England (in the vicinities of Brighton, Reading and Bath). The populations were extremely variable, with up to 20 alleles per locus and high genic diversity. Each host in each region had a population of B. cinerea with distinctive genetic features, and there were also consistent host and regional distinctions. The B. cinerea population from strawberry was distinguished from that on other hosts, including blackberry, most notably by a common 154-bp amplicon at locus 5 (present in 35 of 77 samples) that was rare in isolates from other hosts (9¤166), and by the rarity (3¤77) of a 112-bp allele at locus 7 that was common (58¤166) in isolates from other hosts. There was signi®cant linkage disequilibrium overall within the B. cinerea populations on blackberry and strawberry, but with quite different patterns of association among isolates from the two hosts. No evidence was found for differentiation between populations of B. cinerea from systemically infected hosts and those from locally infected fruits.

Interest in Medieval accounts: examples from England, 1272-1340

The charging of interest for borrowing money, and the level at which it is charged, is of fundamental importance to the economy. Unfortunately, the study of the interest rates charged in the middle ages has been hampered by the diversity of terms and methods used by historians. This article seeks to establish a standardized methodology to calculate interest rates from historical sources and thereby provide a firmer foundation for comparisons between regions and periods. It should also contribute towards the current historical reassessment of medieval economic and financial development. The article is illustrated with case studies drawn from the credit arrangements of the English kings between 1272 and c.1340, and argues that changes in interest rates reflect, in part, contemporary perceptions of the creditworthiness of the English crown.