Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Fractal and complex network analyses of protein molecular dynamics

Based on protein molecular dynamics, we investigate the fractal properties of energy, pressure and volume time series using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and the topological and fractal properties of their converted horizontal visibility graphs (HVGs). The energy parameters of protein dynamics we considered are bonded potential, angle potential, dihedral potential, improper potential, kinetic energy, Van der Waals potential, electrostatic potential, total energy and potential energy. The shape of the h(q)h(q) curves from MF-DFA indicates that these time series are multifractal. The numerical values of the exponent h(2)h(2) of MF-DFA show that the series of total energy and potential energy are non-stationary and anti-persistent; the other time series are stationary and persistent apart from series of pressure (with H≈0.5H≈0.5 indicating the absence of long-range correlation). The degree distributions of their converted HVGs show that these networks are exponential. The results of fractal analysis show that fractality exists in these converted HVGs. For each energy, pressure or volume parameter, it is found that the values of h(2)h(2) of MF-DFA on the time series, exponent λλ of the exponential degree distribution and fractal dimension dBdB of their converted HVGs do not change much for different proteins (indicating some universality). We also found that after taking average over all proteins, there is a linear relationship between 〈h(2)〉〈h(2)〉 (from MF-DFA on time series) and 〈dB〉〈dB〉 of the converted HVGs for different energy, pressure and volume.

Topological properties and fractal analysis of a recurrence network constructed from fractional Brownian motions

Many studies have shown that we can gain additional information on time series by investigating their accompanying complex networks. In this work, we investigate the fundamental topological and fractal properties of recurrence networks constructed from fractional Brownian motions (FBMs). First, our results indicate that the constructed recurrence networks have exponential degree distributions; the average degree exponent 〈λ〉 increases first and then decreases with the increase of Hurst index H of the associated FBMs; the relationship between H and 〈λ〉 can be represented by a cubic polynomial function. We next focus on the motif rank distribution of recurrence networks, so that we can better understand networks at the local structure level. We find the interesting superfamily phenomenon, i.e., the recurrence networks with the same motif rank pattern being grouped into two superfamilies. Last, we numerically analyze the fractal and multifractal properties of recurrence networks. We find that the average fractal dimension 〈dB〉 of recurrence networks decreases with the Hurst index H of the associated FBMs, and their dependence approximately satisfies the linear formula 〈dB〉≈2-H, which means that the fractal dimension of the associated recurrence network is close to that of the graph of the FBM. Moreover, our numerical results of multifractal analysis show that the multifractality exists in these recurrence networks, and the multifractality of these networks becomes stronger at first and then weaker when the Hurst index of the associated time series becomes larger from 0.4 to 0.95. In particular, the recurrence network with the Hurst index H=0.5 possesses the strongest multifractality. In addition, the dependence relationships of the average information dimension 〈D(1)〉 and the average correlation dimension 〈D(2)〉 on the Hurst index H can also be fitted well with linear functions. Our results strongly suggest that the recurrence network inherits the basic characteristic and the fractal nature of the associated FBM series.

Spatial distribution of aerosol black carbon over India during pre-monsoon season

Aerosol black carbon (BC) mass concentrations ([BC]), measured continuously during a multi-platform field experiment, Integrated Campaign for Aerosols gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB, March-May 2006), from a network of eight observatories spread over geographically distinct environments of India, (which included five mainland stations, one highland station, and two island stations (one each ill Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal)) are examined for their spatio-temporal characteristics. During the period of study, [BC] showed large variations across the country, with values ranging from 27 mu g m(3) over industrial/urban locations to as low as 0.065 mu g m(-3) over the Arabian Sea. For all mainland stations, [BC] remained high compared to highland as well as island stations. Among the island stations, Port Blair (PBR) had higher concentration of BC, compared to Minicoy (MCY), implying more absorbing nature of Bay of Bengal aerosols than Arabian Sea. The highland station Nainital (NTL), in the central Himalayas, showed low values of [BC], comparable or even lower than that of the island station PBR, indicating the prevalence of cleaner environment over there. An examination of the changes in the mean temporal features, as the season advances from winter (December-February) to pre-monsoon (March-May), revealed that: (a) Diurnal variations were pronounced over all the mainland stations, with all afternoon low and a nighttime high: (b) At the islands, the diurnal variations, though resembled those over the mainlands, were less pronounced; and (c) In contrast to this, highland station showed an opposite pattern with an afternoon high and a late night or early morning low. The diurnal variations at all stations are mainly caused by the dynamics of local Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL), At the entire mainland as well as island stations (except HYD and DEL), [BC] showed a decreasing trend from January to May, This is attributed to the increased convective mixing and to the resulting enhanced vertical dispersal of species in the ABL. In addition, large short-period modulations were observed at DEL and HYD, which appeared to be episodic, An examination of this in the light of the MODIS-derived fire count data over India along with the back-trajectory analysis revealed that advection of BC from extensive forest fires and biomass-burning regions upwind were largely responsible for this episodic enhancement in BC at HYD and DEL.

A linear programming approach for estimating the structure of a sparse linear genetic network from transcript profiling data

Background: A genetic network can be represented as a directed graph in which a node corresponds to a gene and a directed edge specifies the direction of influence of one gene on another. The reconstruction of such networks from transcript profiling data remains an important yet challenging endeavor. A transcript profile specifies the abundances of many genes in a biological sample of interest. Prevailing strategies for learning the structure of a genetic network from high-dimensional transcript profiling data assume sparsity and linearity. Many methods consider relatively small directed graphs, inferring graphs with up to a few hundred nodes. This work examines large undirected graphs representations of genetic networks, graphs with many thousands of nodes where an undirected edge between two nodes does not indicate the direction of influence, and the problem of estimating the structure of such a sparse linear genetic network (SLGN) from transcript profiling data. Results: The structure learning task is cast as a sparse linear regression problem which is then posed as a LASSO (l1-constrained fitting) problem and solved finally by formulating a Linear Program (LP). A bound on the Generalization Error of this approach is given in terms of the Leave-One-Out Error. The accuracy and utility of LP-SLGNs is assessed quantitatively and qualitatively using simulated and real data. The Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM) initiative provides gold standard data sets and evaluation metrics that enable and facilitate the comparison of algorithms for deducing the structure of networks. The structures of LP-SLGNs estimated from the INSILICO1, INSILICO2 and INSILICO3 simulated DREAM2 data sets are comparable to those proposed by the first and/or second ranked teams in the DREAM2 competition. The structures of LP-SLGNs estimated from two published Saccharomyces cerevisae cell cycle transcript profiling data sets capture known regulatory associations. In each S. cerevisiae LP-SLGN, the number of nodes with a particular degree follows an approximate power law suggesting that its degree distributions is similar to that observed in real-world networks. Inspection of these LP-SLGNs suggests biological hypotheses amenable to experimental verification. Conclusion: A statistically robust and computationally efficient LP-based method for estimating the topology of a large sparse undirected graph from high-dimensional data yields representations of genetic networks that are biologically plausible and useful abstractions of the structures of real genetic networks. Analysis of the statistical and topological properties of learned LP-SLGNs may have practical value; for example, genes with high random walk betweenness, a measure of the centrality of a node in a graph, are good candidates for intervention studies and hence integrated computational – experimental investigations designed to infer more realistic and sophisticated probabilistic directed graphical model representations of genetic networks. The LP-based solutions of the sparse linear regression problem described here may provide a method for learning the structure of transcription factor networks from transcript profiling and transcription factor binding motif data.

Oxygen transport in a three-dimensional microvascular network incorporated with early tumour growth and preexisting vessel cooption: Numerical simulation study

We propose a dynamic mathematical model of tissue oxygen transport by a preexisting three-dimensional microvascular network which provides nutrients for an in situ cancer at the very early stage of primary microtumour growth. The expanding tumour consumes oxygen during its invasion to the surrounding tissues and cooption of host vessels. The preexisting vessel cooption, remodelling and collapse are modelled by the changes of haemodynamic conditions due to the growing tumour. A detailed computational model of oxygen transport in tumour tissue is developed by considering (a) the time-varying oxygen advection diffusion equation within the microvessel segments, (b) the oxygen flux across the vessel walls, and (c) the oxygen diffusion and consumption with in the tumour and surrounding healthy tissue. The results show the oxygen concentration distribution at different time points of early tumour growth. In addition, the influence of preexisting vessel density on the oxygen transport has been discussed. The proposed model not only provides a quantitative approach for investigating the interactions between tumour growth and oxygen delivery, but also is extendable to model other molecules or chemotherapeutic drug transport in the future study.

Optimum Evaluation of Reactive Power Requirements in Power Distribution-Systems

This paper presents three methodologies for determining optimum locations and magnitudes of reactive power compensation in power distribution systems. Method I and Method II are suitable for complex distribution systems with a combination of both radial and ring-main feeders and having different voltage levels. Method III is suitable for low-tension single voltage level radial feeders. Method I is based on an iterative scheme with successive powerflow analyses, with formulation and solution of the optimization problem using linear programming. Method II and Method III are essentially based on the steady state performance of distribution systems. These methods are simple to implement and yield satisfactory results comparable with the results of Method I. The proposed methods have been applied to a few distribution systems, and results obtained for two typical systems are presented for illustration purposes.

Development of innovative robust stability enhancement algorithms for distribution systems containing distributed generators

This project was a step forward in improving the voltage profile of traditional low voltage distribution networks with high photovoltaic generation or high peak demand. As a practical and economical solution, the developed methods use a Dynamic Voltage Restorer or DVR, which is a series voltage compensator, for continuous and communication-less power quality enhancement. The placement of DVR in the network is optimised in order to minimise its power rating and cost. In addition, new approaches were developed for grid synchronisation and control of DVR which are integrated with the voltage quality improvement algorithm for stable operation.

Effects of increasing neuromuscular electrical stimulation current intensity on cortical sensorimotor network activation: A time domain fNIRS study

Neuroimaging studies have shown neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES)-evoked movements activate regions of the cortical sensorimotor network, including the primary sensorimotor cortex (SMC), premotor cortex (PMC), supplementary motor area (SMA), and secondary somatosensory area (S2), as well as regions of the prefrontal cortex (PFC) known to be involved in pain processing. The aim of this study, on nine healthy subjects, was to compare the cortical network activation profile and pain ratings during NMES of the right forearm wrist extensor muscles at increasing current intensities up to and slightly over the individual maximal tolerated intensity (MTI), and with reference to voluntary (VOL) wrist extension movements. By exploiting the capability of the multi-channel time domain functional near-infrared spectroscopy technique to relate depth information to the photon time-of-flight, the cortical and superficial oxygenated (O₂Hb) and deoxygenated (HHb) hemoglobin concentrations were estimated. The O₂Hb and HHb maps obtained using the General Linear Model (NIRS-SPM) analysis method, showed that the VOL and NMES-evoked movements significantly increased activation (i.e., increase in O₂Hb and corresponding decrease in HHb) in the cortical layer of the contralateral sensorimotor network (SMC, PMC/SMA, and S2). However, the level and area of contralateral sensorimotor network (including PFC) activation was significantly greater for NMES than VOL. Furthermore, there was greater bilateral sensorimotor network activation with the high NMES current intensities which corresponded with increased pain ratings. In conclusion, our findings suggest that greater bilateral sensorimotor network activation profile with high NMES current intensities could be in part attributable to increased attentional/pain processing and to increased bilateral sensorimotor integration in these cortical regions.

Dynamic Bayesian network inferencing for non-homogeneous complex systems

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.

Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent thirty years little progress has been made - due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. This paper resumes the debate by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to assure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of twelve construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.

Data distribution and task scheduling for distributed computing of all-to-all comparison problems

This research studied distributed computing of all-to-all comparison problems with big data sets. The thesis formalised the problem, and developed a high-performance and scalable computing framework with a programming model, data distribution strategies and task scheduling policies to solve the problem. The study considered storage usage, data locality and load balancing for performance improvement in solving the problem. The research outcomes can be applied in bioinformatics, biometrics and data mining and other domains in which all-to-all comparisons are a typical computing pattern.

The Most Probable Bayesian Network and Beyond

This doctoral dissertation introduces an algorithm for constructing the most probable Bayesian network from data for small domains. The algorithm is used to show that a popular goodness criterion for the Bayesian networks has a severe sensitivity problem. The dissertation then proposes an information theoretic criterion that avoids the problem.

A probabilistic approach to the problem of electron localization in disordered systems and sharpness of the mobility edge

By applying the theory of the asymptotic distribution of extremes and a certain stability criterion to the question of the domain of convergence in the probability sense, of the renormalized perturbation expansion (RPE) for the site self-energy in a cellularly disordered system, an expression has been obtained in closed form for the probability of nonconvergence of the RPE on the real-energy axis. Hence, the intrinsic mobility mu (E) as a function of the carrier energy E is deduced to be given by mu (E)= mu 0exp(-exp( mod E mod -Ec) Delta ), where Ec is a nominal 'mobility edge' and Delta is the width of the random site-energy distribution. Thus mobility falls off sharply but continuously for mod E mod >Ec, in contradistinction with the notion of an abrupt 'mobility edge' proposed by Cohen et al. and Mott. Also, the calculated electrical conductivity shows a temperature dependence in qualitative agreement with experiments on disordered semiconductors.

Where and how to conserve: Extending the scope of spatial reserve network design

Ongoing habitat loss and fragmentation threaten much of the biodiversity that we know today. As such, conservation efforts are required if we want to protect biodiversity. Conservation budgets are typically tight, making the cost-effective selection of protected areas difficult. Therefore, reserve design methods have been developed to identify sets of sites, that together represent the species of conservation interest in a cost-effective manner. To be able to select reserve networks, data on species distributions is needed. Such data is often incomplete, but species habitat distribution models (SHDMs) can be used to link the occurrence of the species at the surveyed sites to the environmental conditions at these locations (e.g. climatic, vegetation and soil conditions). The probability of the species occurring at unvisited location is next predicted by the model, based on the environmental conditions of those sites. The spatial configuration of reserve networks is important, because habitat loss around reserves can influence the persistence of species inside the network. Since species differ in their requirements for network configuration, the spatial cohesion of networks needs to be species-specific. A way to account for species-specific requirements is to use spatial variables in SHDMs. Spatial SHDMs allow the evaluation of the effect of reserve network configuration on the probability of occurrence of the species inside the network. Even though reserves are important for conservation, they are not the only option available to conservation planners. To enhance or maintain habitat quality, restoration or maintenance measures are sometimes required. As a result, the number of conservation options per site increases. Currently available reserve selection tools do however not offer the ability to handle multiple, alternative options per site. This thesis extends the existing methodology for reserve design, by offering methods to identify cost-effective conservation planning solutions when multiple, alternative conservation options are available per site. Although restoration and maintenance measures are beneficial to certain species, they can be harmful to other species with different requirements. This introduces trade-offs between species when identifying which conservation action is best applied to which site. The thesis describes how the strength of such trade-offs can be identified, which is useful for assessing consequences of conservation decisions regarding species priorities and budget. Furthermore, the results of the thesis indicate that spatial SHDMs can be successfully used to account for species-specific requirements for spatial cohesion - in the reserve selection (single-option) context as well as in the multi-option context. Accounting for the spatial requirements of multiple species and allowing for several conservation options is however complicated, due to trade-offs in species requirements. It is also shown that spatial SHDMs can be successfully used for gaining information on factors that drive a species spatial distribution. Such information is valuable to conservation planning, as better knowledge on species requirements facilitates the design of networks for species persistence. This methods and results described in this thesis aim to improve species probabilities of persistence, by taking better account of species habitat and spatial requirements. Many real-world conservation planning problems are characterised by a variety of conservation options related to protection, restoration and maintenance of habitat. Planning tools therefore need to be able to incorporate multiple conservation options per site, in order to continue the search for cost-effective conservation planning solutions. Simultaneously, the spatial requirements of species need to be considered. The methods described in this thesis offer a starting point for combining these two relevant aspects of conservation planning.