The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

The spectrum of minimal defining sets of some Steiner systems

For a design D, define spec(D) = {\M\ \ M is a minimal defining set of D} to be the spectrum of minimal defining sets of D. In this note we give bounds on the size of an element in spec(D) when D is a Steiner system. We also show that the spectrum of minimal defining sets of the Steiner triple system given by the points and lines of PG(3,2) equals {16,17,18,19,20,21,22}, and point out some open questions concerning the Steiner triple systems associated with PG(n, 2) in general. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Skolem-type difference sets for cycle systems

Cyclic m-cycle systems of order v are constructed for all m greater than or equal to 3, and all v = 1(mod 2m). This result has been settled previously by several authors. In this paper, we provide a different solution, as a consequence of a more general result, which handles all cases using similar methods and which also allows us to prove necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a cyclic m-cycle system of K-v - F for all m greater than or equal to 3, and all v = 2(mod 2m).

Sport-specific practice and the development of expert decision-making in team ball sports

The role of sport-specific practice in the development of decision-making expertise in the sports of field hockey, netball, and basketball was examined. Fifteen expert decision-makers and 13 experienced non-expert athletes provided detailed information about the quantity and type of sport-specific and other related practice activities they had undertaken throughout their careers. Experts accumulated more hours of sport-specific practice from age 12 years onwards than did non-experts, spending on average some 13 years and 4,000 hours on concentrated sport-specific practice before reaching international standard. A significant negative correlation existed between the number of additional activities undertaken and the hours of sportspecific training required before attaining expertise, suggesting a functional role for activities other than sport-specific training in the development of expert decision-making.

A longitudinal analysis of sex differences in bone mineral accrual in healthy 8-19-year-old boys and girls

Background: Although early in life there is little discernible difference in bone mass between boys and girls, at puberty sex differences are observed. It is uncertain if these differences represent differences in bone mass or just differences in anthropometric dimensions. Aim: The study aimed to identify whether sex independently affects bone mineral content (BMC) accrual in growing boys and girls. Three sites are investigated: total body (TB), femoral neck (FN) and lumbar spine (LS). Subjects and methods: 85 boys and 67 girls were assessed annually for seven consecutive years. BMC was assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Biological age was defined as years from age at peak height velocity (PHV). Data were analysed using a hierarchical (random effects) modelling approach. Results: When biological age, body size and body composition were controlled, boys had statistically significantly higher TB and FN BMC at all maturity levels (p < 0.05). No independent sex differences were found at the LS (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Although a statistical significant sex effect is observed, it is less than the error of the measurement, and thus sex difference are debatable. In general, sex difference are explained by anthropometric difference

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health research and the conduct of longitudinal studies: issues for debate

The National Health and Medical Research Council, Research Agenda Working Group (RAWG), and the literature on Indigenous health have identified the need to fill gaps in descriptive data on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and noted both the lack of research with urban populations and the need for longitudinal studies. This paper presents some of the broad ethical and methodological challenges associated with longitudinal research in Indigenous health and focuses particularly on national studies and studies in urban areas. Our goal is to advance debate in the public health arena about the application of ethical guidelines and the conduct of longitudinal studies in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities. We encourage others to offer their experiences in this field.