Demographic and Geographic Heterogeneity between Subgroups of Cyclists

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Space-Time Smoothing Models for Surveillance and Complex Survey Data

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Demographic effects on the use of vertical sources of guidance by managers in widely differing cultural contexts

Data provided by 7380 middle managers from 60 nations are used to determine whether demographic variables are correlated with managers’ reliance on vertical sources of guidance in different nations and whether these correlations differ depending on national culture characteristics. Significant effects of Hofstede’s national culture scores, age, gender, organization ownership and department function are found. After these main effects have been discounted, significant although weak interactions are found, indicating that demographic effects are stronger in individualist, low power distance nations than elsewhere. Significant non-predicted interaction effects of uncertainty avoidance and masculinity-femininity are also obtained. The implications for theory and practice of the use of demographic attributes in understanding effective management procedures in various parts of the world are discussed.

Is mortality from heart failure increasing in Australia? An analysis of official data on mortality for 1997-2003

Objective To assess whether trends in mortality from heart failure(HF) in Australia are due to a change in awareness of the condition or real changes in its epidemiology. Methods We carried out a retrospective analysis of official data on national mortality data between 1997 and 2003. A death was attributed to HF if the death certificate mentioned HF as either the underlying cause of death (UCD) or among the contributory factors. Findings From a total of 907 242 deaths, heart failure was coded as the UCD for 29 341 (3.2%) and was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate in 135 268 (14.9%). Between 1997 and 2003, there were decreases in the absolute numbers of deaths and in the age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for HF either as UCD or mentioned anywhere for both sexes. HF was mentioned for 24.6% and 17.8% of deaths attributed to ischaemic heart disease and circulatory disease, respectively, and these proportions remained unchanged over the period of study. In addition, HF as UCD accounted for 8.3% of deaths attributed to circulatory disease and this did not change materially from 1997 to 2003. Conclusion The decline in mortality from HF measured as either number of deaths or rate probably reflects a real change in the epidemiology of HF. Population-based studies are required to determine accurately the contributions of changes in incidence, survival and demographic factors to the evolving epidemiology of HF.

Reference values for whole body and cerebral multi-frequency bio-impedance data in neonates less than 12 h postpartum

Multiple frequency bio-electrical impedance analysis (MFBIA) may be useful for monitoring fluid balance in newborn infants or to provide early prediction of the outcome following perinatal asphyxia. A reference range of data is needed for identification of babies with abnormal impedance values. This was a cross-sectional observational study in 84 term and near-term healthy neonates less than 12 h postpartum. Whole body and cerebral MFBIA measurements were performed at the bedside in the post-natal ward. Gestational age, post-natal age, gender, birthweight, head circumference and foot length measures were recorded. Reference values for impedance at the characteristic frequency (Z(C)) and resistance at zero frequency (R-0) are reported for whole body and cerebral impedance. Significant correlations (p < 0.05) were observed between whole body impedance and birthweight, footlength and head circumference. Females had a significantly higher whole body R0 than males. Cerebral impedance did not correlate significantly with any of the demographic measures and therewere no gender differences observed for cerebral impedance. The reference range for whole body multi-frequency bio-impedance values in term and near-term infants within the first 12 h postpartum can be calculated from the footlength (FL) using the following equations: Z(C) = (942.9 - 4.818* FL) +/- 124.6 Omega; R-0 = (1042 - 4.520(*)FL) +/- 135.5 Omega. For cerebral impedance the reference range is 29.5-48.7 Omega for Z(C) and 33.7-58.0 Omega for R-0.

Socio-demographic variations in walking for transport and for recreation or exercise among adult Australians

Background: Walking is integral to strategies to promote physical activity. We identified socio-demographic variations in walking for transport, and for recreation or exercise. Methods: Representative population data (n = 3392) from Australia were collected using computer assisted telephone interviewing, to examine adults’ participation in moderate- or brisk-paced walking for transport and walking for recreation or exercise; walking “sufficient” to meet the current public health guideline (> 150 min/wk); and, the contributions of total walking to meeting the guideline for total physical activity. Results: Rates of sufficient walking for transport (10% for men, 9% for women) were lower than those for walking for recreation or exercise (14% for both genders). Few socio-demographic differences emerged. Men over age 60 y were significantly less likely (OR = 0.40) to walk for transport; men age 45 to 59 y were more likely (OR = 1.56) to walk for recreation or exercise. Walking contributed more toward meeting the current public health guideline among women (15% to 21%) than among men (6% to 8%). Conclusions: There is potential for socially equitable increases in participation, through a focus on both walking for transport and on walking for recreation or exercise; attention to gender differences would be helpful.

We know what you want to buy:a demographic-based system for product recommendation on microblogs

Product recommender systems are often deployed by e-commerce websites to improve user experience and increase sales. However, recommendation is limited by the product information hosted in those e-commerce sites and is only triggered when users are performing e-commerce activities. In this paper, we develop a novel product recommender system called METIS, a MErchanT Intelligence recommender System, which detects users' purchase intents from their microblogs in near real-time and makes product recommendation based on matching the users' demographic information extracted from their public profiles with product demographics learned from microblogs and online reviews. METIS distinguishes itself from traditional product recommender systems in the following aspects: 1) METIS was developed based on a microblogging service platform. As such, it is not limited by the information available in any specific e-commerce website. In addition, METIS is able to track users' purchase intents in near real-time and make recommendations accordingly. 2) In METIS, product recommendation is framed as a learning to rank problem. Users' characteristics extracted from their public profiles in microblogs and products' demographics learned from both online product reviews and microblogs are fed into learning to rank algorithms for product recommendation. We have evaluated our system in a large dataset crawled from Sina Weibo. The experimental results have verified the feasibility and effectiveness of our system. We have also made a demo version of our system publicly available and have implemented a live system which allows registered users to receive recommendations in real time. © 2014 ACM.

Survival in the pre-senile dementia frontotemporal lobar degeneration with TDP-43 proteinopathy:effects of genetic, demographic and neuropathological variables

Factors associated with survival were studied in 84 neuropathologically documented cases of the pre-senile dementia frontotemporal dementia lobar degeneration (FTLD) with transactive response (TAR) DNA-binding protein of 43 kDa (TDP-43) proteinopathy (FTLD-TDP). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis estimated mean survival as 7.9 years (range: 1-19 years, SD = 4.64). Familial and sporadic cases exhibited similar survival, including progranulin (GRN) gene mutation cases. No significant differences in survival were associated with sex, disease onset, Braak disease stage, or disease subtype, but higher survival was associated with lower post-mortem brain weight. Survival was significantly reduced in cases with associated motor neuron disease (FTLD-MND) but increased with Alzheimer's disease (AD) or hippocampal sclerosis (HS) co-morbidity. Cox regression analysis suggested that reduced survival was associated with increased densities of neuronal cytoplasmic inclusions (NCI) while increased survival was associated with greater densities of enlarged neurons (EN) in the frontal and temporal lobes. The data suggest that: (1) survival in FTLD-TDP is more prolonged than typical in pre-senile dementia but shorter than some clinical subtypes such as the semantic variant of primary progressive aphasia (svPPA), (2) MND co-morbidity predicts poor survival, and (3) NCI may develop early and EN later in the disease. The data have implications for both neuropathological characterization and subtyping of FTLD-TDP.

Selected psychosocial and demographic factors affecting levels of pre-retirement planning

In September 2002, the State of Florida implemented a new retirement structure for those employed in the Florida Public School System. Teachers were given the option to maintain their existing defined benefit plan or choose the newly offered defined contribution plan. The variables that affect planning for retirement are innumerable. Identifying the most significant variables is essential to understanding how one plans for retirement. ^ This study examined the relationship between hypothesized psychosocial and demographic factors and an individual's level of pre-retirement planning. The criterion variable, the level of pre-retirement planning, comprised two concepts. First, the time spent thinking about retirement was determined by the score an individual received on a pre-retirement planning scale. This scale included the concepts of information gathering, goals, anticipated resources, and long-range planning. Second, implementation of retirement plan procedures was determined by the percentage an individual annually deferred to retirement. ^ The survey used for data collection contained 50 close-ended items. It was distributed to all full-time teachers in nine randomly selected elementary, middle, and senior high schools throughout Miami-Dade County Public Schools. Multiple regression and crosstabulation indicated that math anxiety, general risk, years of service, and total family income were significant predictors of the level of pre-retirement planning, as measured by the pre-retirement planning scale. In addition, the statistical analysis indicated that math anxiety, internal locus of control, years of service, and total family income were significant predictors of the level pre-retirement planning, as measured by the amount deferred to retirement. An individual's level of math anxiety and family income were the two factors that were the most significant predictors for both concepts on the level of pre-retirement planning. ^ Based on the findings of the study, recommendations focused on assessing an individual's level of math anxiety and educating teachers, particularly pre-service candidates, about the factors that affect pre-retirement planning. Further research should investigate the benefit of such educational programs. ^

An investigation of the strategies used by organizations participating in the welfare-to-work network program and correlation of the strategies with the retention data to determine best practices for job retention among former welfare recipients

This ex post facto study (N = 209) examined the relationships between employer job strategies and job retention among organizations participating in Florida welfare-to-work network programs and associated the strategies with job retention data to determine best practices. ^ An internet-based self-report survey battery was administered to a heterogeneous sampling of organizations participating in the Florida welfare-to-work network program. Hypotheses were tested through correlational and hierarchical regression analytic procedures. The partial correlation results linked each of the job retention strategies to job retention. Wages, benefits, training and supervision, communication, job growth, work/life balance, fairness and respect were all significantly related to job retention. Hierarchical regression results indicated that the training and supervision variable was the best predictor of job retention in the regression equation. ^ The size of the organization was also a significant predictor of job retention. Large organizations reported higher job retention rates than small organizations. There was no statistical difference between the types of organizations (profit-making and non-profit) and job retention. The standardized betas ranged from to .26 to .41 in the regression equation. Twenty percent of the variance in job retention was explained by the combination of demographic and job retention strategy predictors, supporting the theoretical, empirical, and practical relevance of understanding the association between employer job strategies and job retention outcomes. Implications for adult education and human resource development theory, research, and practice are highlighted as possible strategic leverage points for creating conditions that facilitate the development of job strategies as a means for improving former welfare workers’ job retention.^

Education policy and national income distribution: New evidence from recent cross -country data

In the mid 19th century, Horace Mann insisted that a broad provision of public schooling should take precedence over the liberal education of an elite group. In that regard, his generation constructed a state sponsored common schooling enterprise to educate the masses. More than 100 years later, the institution of public schooling fails to maintain an image fully representative of the ideals of equity and inclusion. Critical theory in educational thought associates the dominant practice of functional schooling with maintenance of the status quo, an unequal distribution of financial, political, and social resources. This study examined the empirical basis for the association of public schooling with the status quo using the most recent and comparable cross-country income inequality data. Multiple regression analysis evaluated the possible relationship between national income inequality change over the period 1985-2005 and variables representative of national measures of education supply in the prior decade. The estimated model of income inequality development attempted to quantify the relationship between education supply factors and subsequent income inequality developments by controlling for economic, demographic, and exogenous factors. The sample included all nations with comparable income inequality data over the measurement period, N = 56. Does public school supply affect national income distribution? The estimated model suggested that an increase in the average years of schooling among the population age 15 years or older, measured over the period 1975-1985, provided a mechanism that resulted in a more equal distribution of income over the period 1985-2005 among low and lower-middle income nations. The model also suggested that income inequality increased less or decreased more in smaller economies and when the percentage of the population age < 15 years grew more slowly over the period 1985-2000. In contrast, this study identified no significant relationship between school supply changes measured over prior periods and income inequality development over the period 1985-2005 among upper-middle and high income nations.

Inequality, the Welfare State, and Demographic Change

This dissertation is a three-part analysis examining how the welfare state in advanced Western democracies has responded to recent demographic changes. Specifically, this dissertation investigates two primary relationships, beginning with the influence of government spending on poverty. I analyze two at-risk populations in particular: immigrants and children of single mothers. Next, attention is turned to the influence of individual and environmental traits on preferences for social spending. I focus specifically on religiosity, religious beliefs and religious identity. I pool data from a number of international macro- and micro-data sources including the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), International Social Survey Program (ISSP), the World Bank Databank, and the OECD Databank. Analyses highlight the power of the welfare state to reduce poverty, but also the effectiveness of specific areas of spending focused on addressing new social risks. While previous research has touted the strength of the welfare state, my analyses highlight the need to consider new social risks and encourage closer attention to how social position affects preferences for the welfare state.

The Changing Face of Neolithic and Bronze Age Ireland: A Big Data Approach to the Settlement and Burial Records

This paper synthesizes and discusses the spatial and temporal patterns of archaeological sites in Ireland, spanning the Neolithic period and the Bronze Age transition (4300–1900 cal BC), in order to explore the timing and implications of the main changes that occurred in the archaeological record of that period. Large amounts of new data are sourced from unpublished developer-led excavations and combined with national archives, published excavations and online databases. Bayesian radiocarbon models and context- and sample-sensitive summed radiocarbon probabilities are used to examine the dataset. The study captures the scale and timing of the initial expansion of Early Neolithic settlement and the ensuing attenuation of all such activity—an apparent boom-and-bust cycle. The Late Neolithic and Chalcolithic periods are characterised by a resurgence and diversification of activity. Contextualisation and spatial analysis of radiocarbon data reveals finer-scale patterning than is usually possible with summed-probability approaches: the boom-and-bust models of prehistoric populations may, in fact, be a misinterpretation of more subtle demographic changes occurring at the same time as cultural change and attendant differences in the archaeological record.

Demographic trends in suicide in the UK and Ireland 1980 - 2010.

Background Ireland has the 17th highest suicide rate in the EU and the 4th highest among 15 to 24-year-old males (WHO 2012). Suicide is the leading cause of death in this age group; death by hanging accounted for 69 % of suicides in 2010. Methods This study examines youth suicide rates from 1980 to 2010 in Ireland and compares them to the rates in Northern Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales. Irish data were obtained from the Central Statistics Office and their annual reports on Vital Statistics. Northern Irish data were obtained from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency website; Scottish data were from the General Register Office for Scotland and English/Welsh data from the Office for National Statistics website. Results There has been a threefold increase in young male suicide in Ireland over the past three decades (8.9 - 29.7 per 100,000). In contrast, there has been approximately a threefold reduction in deaths by road traffic accidents in young men in the same period (42.7 - 16.2 per 100,000). Suicide rates in young men are similar in Scotland and Northern Ireland for the same period but are 50 % lower in England and Wales. Despite the rates of hanging as a method of suicide increasing in all jurisdictions, the overall rate in England and Wales has continued to decline. Conclusion The suicide rate in Ireland remains very high and strategies to address this are urgently required. Our study indicates that national suicide prevention strategies can be effective.