Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Risk of foot and mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled

A simple two-stage design for quantitative responses with application to a study in diabetic neuropathic pain

Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to he stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase H and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Factors required for the uridylylation of the foot-and-mouth disease virus 3B1, 3B2, and 3B3 peptides by the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (3D(pol)) in vitro

The 5' terminus of picornavirus genomic RNA is covalently linked to the virus-encoded peptide 313 (VTg). Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is unique in encoding and using 3 distinct forms of this peptide. These peptides each act as primers for RNA synthesis by the virus-encoded RNA polymerase 3D(pol). To act as the primer for positive-strand RNA synthesis, the 3B peptides have to be uridylylated to form VPgpU(pU). For certain picornaviruses, it has been shown that this reaction is achieved by the 3D(pol) in the presence of the 3CD precursor plus an internal RNA sequence termed a cis-acting replication element (cre). The FMDV ere has been identified previously to be within the 5' untranslated region, whereas all other picornavirus cre structures are within the viral coding region. The requirements for the in vitro uridylylation of each of the FMDV 313 peptides has now been determined, and the role of the FMDV ere (also known as the 3B-uridylylation site, or bus) in this reaction has been analyzed. The poly(A) tail does not act as a significant template for FMDV 3B uridylylation.

Comparison of the antidiabetic activity of Berberis lyceum root extract and berberine in alloxan-induced diabetic rats

Berberine has been shown to have hypoglycaemic activity in several in vitro and in vivo models, although the mechanism of action is not fully known. Berberis lyceum Royle root produces high concentrations of berberine, and in traditional medicine, the whole extract of this plant is used widely to treat diabetes. The antidiabetic activity of the ethanol root extract of Berberis lyceum was compared with pure berberine in normal and alloxan-diabetic rats using similar doses of each. The concentration of berberine in the extract was determined to be 80% dry weight with only trace amounts of other alkaloids present. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effects of berberine and a whole extract of Berberis lyceum on blood glucose and other parameters associated with diabetes, to compare the effects of the crude extract with those of pure berberine and thus validate its use as a therapeutic agent, and finally to identify any contribution of the other components of the extract to these effects. Oral administration of 50 mg/kg of Berberis extract and berberine to normal and experimental diabetic rats produced a significant (p < 0.05) reduction in blood glucose levels from days 3-7 days of treatment. Significant effects were also observed on the glucose tolerance, glycosylated haemoglobin, serum lipid profiles and body weight of experimental animals. Berberis extract and berberine demonstrated similar effects on all parameters measured, and although the extract was comparable in efficacy to berberine, it did not produce any effects additional to those shown by pure berberine. The results support the use of the extract in traditional medicine, and demonstrate that apart from being a highly cost-effective means of treating with berberine, the total extract does not appear to confer any additional benefits or disadvantages compared with the pure compound. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Efficient production of foot-and-mouth disease virus empty capsids in insect cells following down regulation of 3C protease activity

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a significant economically and distributed globally pathogen of Artiodactyla. Current vaccines are chemically inactivated whole virus particles that require large-scale virus growth in strict bio-containment with the associated risks of accidental release or incomplete inactivation. Non-infectious empty capsids are structural mimics of authentic particles with no associated risk and constitute an alternate vaccine candidate. Capsids self-assemble from the processed virus structural proteins, VP0, VP3 and VP1, which are released from the structural protein precursor P1-2A by the action of the virus-encoded 3C protease. To date recombinant empty capsid assembly has been limited by poor expression levels, restricting the development of empty capsids as a viable vaccine. Here expression of the FMDV structural protein precursor P1-2A in insect cells is shown to be efficient but linkage of the cognate 3C protease to the C-terminus reduces expression significantly. Inactivation of the 3C enzyme in a P1-2A-3C cassette allows expression and intermediate levels of 3C activity resulted in efficient processing of the P1-2A precursor into the structural proteins which assembled into empty capsids. Expression was independent of the insect host cell background and leads to capsids that are recognised as authentic by a range of anti-FMDV bovine sera suggesting their feasibility as an alternate vaccine.

A spirochete isolated from a case of severe virulent ovine foot disease is closely related to a Treponeme isolated from human periodontitis and bovine digital dermatitis

The isolation of spirochetes from severe ovine foot disease has been reported recently by our research group. In this study we describe the preliminary classification of this spirochete based on nucleotide sequence analysis of the PCR-amplified 16S rRNA gene. Phylogenetic analysis of this sequence in comparison with other previously reported 16S rRNA gene sequences showed that the spirochete belonged to the treponemal phylotype Treponema vincentii which has been associated with bovine digital dermatitis and human periodontal disease. Further work is required to define the common virulence determinants of these closely related treponemes in the aetiology of these tissue destructive diseases. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.