886 resultados para DEMOCRACIA - GUATEMALA - 1983-1999


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The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during different sub-periods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity model (CEM), and a rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (p  <  0.01) decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (p  <  0.01), and an insignificant (p  >  0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961–2008. We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential Mann–Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management in the study basin.

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El estudio de los efectos de la modificación del hábitat sobre la diversidad biológica tropical es un tema fundamental para la biología de la conservación. El objetivo principal de este trabajo fue evaluar el efecto de la modificación del bosque tropical a escala de paisaje, y en particular de la fragmentación del bosque, sobre las comunidades de aves en la región caribeña de Guatemala, e identificar los mecanismos ecológicos principales asociados a dichos efectos. Relevé las comunidades de aves en 123 paisajes, y estudié la relación entre: 1) la presencia de 10 especies blanco; 2) la riqueza, abundancia y composición de las aves dependientes de bosque; 3) la dinámica temporal de dicha comunidad; 4) la riqueza de ocho gremios ecológicos, y la variación en la composición y configuración del hábitat en estos paisajes, mediante modelos lineales generalizados y técnicas multivariadas. Concluí que: 1) la persistencia de las aves en paisajes modificados depende de factores que operan a escalas extra-territoriales; 2) el efecto de la cobertura de bosque sobre la comunidad de aves fue mayor, pero hubo fuertes respuestas a la fragmentación y aumentos del perímetro de las especies de interior de bosque, las granívoras, nectarívoras, e insectívoras residentes de follaje y hojarasca; 3) la dinámica comunitaria de los paisajes con cobertura mayor al 40 por ciento, independientemente del grado de fragmentación, fueron muy similares a la del bosque continuo; 4) las especies más vulnerables a la modificación poseen poca capacidad de utilizar hábitats alternativos, impidiendo la suplementación de recursos en éstos y/o restringiendo su dispersión a otros fragmentos; aquellas que se alimentan y anidan en los estratos inferiores del bosque y construyen nidos abiertos son más vulnerables a los efectos bióticos y abióticos de los bordes de bosque; las especies que son miembros comunes de grupos de alimentación son afectadas por mayores requerimientos de área y una menor amplitud de hábitat.

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The consequences for pelagic communities of warming trends in mid and high latitude ocean regions could be substantial, but their magnitude and trajectory are not yet known. Environmental changes predicted by climate models (and beginning to be confirmed by observations) include warming and freshening of the upper ocean and reduction in the extent and duration of ice cover. One way to evaluate response scenarios is by comparing how "similar" zooplankton communities have differed among years and/or locations with differing temperature. The subarctic Pacific is a strong candidate for such comparisons, because the same mix of zooplankton species dominates over a wide range of temperature climatologies, and observations have spanned substantial temperature variability at interannual-to-decadal time scales. In this paper, we review and extend copepod abundance and phenology time series from net tow and Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys in the subarctic Northeast Pacific. The two strongest responses we have observed are latitudinal shifts in centers of abundance of many species (poleward under warm conditions), and changes in the life cycle timing of Neocalanus plumchrus in both oceanic and coastal regions (earlier by several weeks in warm years and at warmer locations). These zooplankton data, plus indices of higher trophic level responses such as reproduction, growth and survival of pelagic fish and seabirds, are all moderately-to-strongly intercorrelated (vertical bar r vertical bar = 0.25-0.8) with indices of local and basin-scale temperature anomalies. A principal components analysis of the normalized anomaly time series from 1979 to 2004 shows that a single "warm-and-low-productivity" vs. "cool-and-high-productivity" component axis accounts for over half of the variance/covariance. Prior to 1990, the scores for this component were negative ("cool" and "productive") or near zero except positive in the El Nino years 1983 and 1987. The scores were strongly and increasingly positive ("warm" and "low productivity") from 1992 to 1998; negative from 1999 to 2002; and again increasingly positive from 2003-present. We suggest that, in strongly seasonal environments, anomalously high temperature may provide misleading environmental cues that contribute to timing mismatch between life history events and the more-nearly-fixed seasonality of insolation, stratification, and food supply. Crown Copyright (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.