Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Protein requirements for Blue-fronted Amazon (Amazona aestiva) growth

The objective of this study was to evaluate the protein requirements for hand-rearing Blue-fronted Amazon parrots (Amazona aestiva). Forty hatchlings were fed semi-purified diets containing one of four (as-fed basis) protein levels: 13%, 18%, 23% and 28%. The experiment was carried out in a randomized block design with the initial weight of the nestling as the blocking factor and 10 parrots per protein level. Regression analysis was used to determine relationships between protein level and biometric measurements. The data indicated that 13% crude protein supported nestling growth with 18% being the minimum tested level required for maximum development. The optimal protein concentration for maximum weight gain was 24.4% (p = 0.08; r(2) = 0.25), tail length 23.7% (p = 0.09; r(2) = 0.19), wing length 23.0% (p = 0.07; r(2) = 0.17), tarsus length 21.3% (p = 0.06; r(2) = 0.10) and tarsus width 21.4% (p = 0.07; r(2) = 0.09). Tarsus measurements were larger in males (p < 0.05), indicating that sex must be considered when studying developing psittacines. These results were obtained using a highly digestible protein and a diet with moderate metabolizable energy levels.

The low fertility of repeat-breeder cows during summer heat stress is related to a low oocyte competence to develop into blastocysts

It was hypothesized the lower fertility of repeat-breeder (RB) Holstein cows is associated with oocyte quality and this negative effect is enhanced during summer heat stress (HS). During the summer and the winter, heifers (H; n = 36 and 34, respectively), peak-lactation (PL; n = 37 and 32, respectively), and RB (n = 36 and 31, respectively) Holstein cows were subjected to ovum retrieval to assess oocyte recovery, in vitro embryonic developmental rates, and blastocyst quality [terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL)-positive cells and total cell number]. The environmental temperature and humidity, respiration rate, and cutaneous and rectal temperatures were recorded in both seasons. The summer HS increased the respiration rate and the rectal temperature of PL and RB cows, and increased the cutaneous temperature and lowered the in vitro embryo production of Holstein cows and heifers. Although cleavage rate was similar among groups [H = 51.7% +/- 4.5 (n = 375), PL = 37.9% +/- 5.1 (n = 390), RB = 41.9% +/- 4.5 (n = 666)], blastocyst rate was compromised by HS, especially in RB cows [H = 30.3% +/- 4.8 (n = 244) vs. 23.3% +/- 6.4 (n = 150), PL = 22.0% +/- 4.7 (n = 191) vs. 14.6% +/- 7.6 (n = 103), RB = 22.5% +/- 5.4 (n = 413) vs. 7.9% +/- 4.3 (n = 177)]. Moreover, the fragmentation rate of RB blastocysts was enhanced during the summer, compared with winter [4.9% +/- 0.7 (n = 14) vs. 2.2% +/- 0.2 (n = 78)] and other groups [H = 2.5% +/- 0.7 (n = 13), and PL = 2.7% +/- 0.6 (n = 14)] suggesting that the association of RB fertility problems and summer HS may potentially impair oocyte quality. Our findings provide evidence of a greater sensitivity of RB oocytes to summer HS.

Effect of a 4% titanium tetrafluoride (TiF4) varnish on demineralisation and remineralisation of bovine enamel in vitro

Objectives: This in vitro study assessed the effect of a 4% TiF4 varnish on demineralisation and remineralisation of sound enamel and artificial carious enamel lesions, respectively. Methods: Bovine sound and carious enamel (n = 110) were randomly allocated to each type of varnish: Duraphat (R))-D (NaF, 2.26%F, pH 4.5, Colgate-Brazil, n = 30), Duofluorid (R)-F (NaF, 2.71%F, pH 8.0, FGM-Brazil, n = 30), TiF4-T (2.45%F, pH 1.0, FGM-Brazil, n = 30) and no-fluoride-P (FGM-Brazil, pH 5.0, n = 20). For the formation of artificial enamel caries, half of the blocks were immersed in 32 mL buffer acetate solution (16 h), whereas the other half was maintained sound. The varnishes were applied onto the enamel surfaces. Thus, the samples were subjected to pH cycles (37 degrees C) for 7 days. The response variables tested were surface and cross-sectional hardness. Data were tested using Kruskal-Wallis test (p < 0.05). Results: All F varnishes significantly reduced demineralisation and increased remineralisation in comparison to placebo. The TiF4 did not significantly reduce the surface enamel softening when compared with the other F varnishes, but it decreased the loss of subsurface hardness to the same extent. In enamel blocks with previous artificial carious lesions, the TiF4 significantly improved the rehardening compared to the other varnishes up to 30 mu m depth. Conclusions: The TiF4 varnish was able to decrease the demineralisation and increase the remineralisation of previously sound and carious enamel, respectively. It was equally effective compared to NaF varnishes on reducing the demineralisation at subsurface, but it was more effective on improving the remineralisation at surface and subsurface. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Natural selection and quantitative genetics of life-history traits in Western women: A twin study

Whether contemporary human populations are still evolving as a result of natural selection has been hotly debated. For natural selection to cause evolutionary change in a trait, variation in the trait must be correlated with fitness and be genetically heritable and there must be no genetic constraints to evolution. These conditions have rarely been tested in human populations. In this study, data from a large twin cohort were used to assess whether selection Will cause a change among women in contemporary Western population for three life-history traits: age at menarche, age at first reproduction, and age at menopause. We control for temporal variation in fecundity (the baby boom phenomenon) and differences between women in educational background and religious affiliation. University-educated women have 35% lower fitness than those with less than seven years education, and Roman Catholic women have about 20% higher fitness than those of other religions. Although these differences were significant, education and religion only accounted for 2% and 1% of variance in fitness, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we reveal significant genetic influences for all three life-history traits, with heritability estimates of 0.50, 0.23, and 0.45, respectively. However, strong genetic covariation with reproductive fitness could only be demonstrated for age at first reproduction, with much weaker covariation for age at menopause and no significant covariation for age at menarche. Selection may, therefore, lead to the evolution of earlier age at first reproduction in this population. We also estimate substantial heritable variation in fitness itself, with approximately 39% of the variance attributable to additive genetic effects, the remainder consisting of unique environmental effects and small effects from education and religion. We discuss mechanisms that could be maintaining such a high heritability for fitness. Most likely is that selection is now acting on different traits from which it did in pre-industrial human populations.

Variation in Alcohol Pharmacokinetics as a Risk Factor for Alcohol Dependence

Background: The significant association between alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH)-2 genotype and alcohol-dependence risk, demonstrated in both Asian and non-Asian populations, suggests a link between the metabolism of alcohol (ethanol) and individual differences in susceptibility to dependence. Methods: We tested this hypothesis by following up on subjects who took part in the Alcohol Challenge Twin Study conducted in 1979-1981 and comparing the blood and breath alcohol results in that study between subjects who subsequently did or did not meet diagnostic criteria for lifetime alcohol dependence in 1992-1993. Results: Subjects who met DSM-III-R criteria for lifetime alcohol dependence at follow-up had higher blood and breath alcohol values after alcohol challenge than never-dependent subjects. Multivariate analysis showed independent effects of susceptibility to alcohol dependence and smoking status on blood alcohol concentrations, whereas habitual alcohol intake at the time of the initial study had marginally significant effects. The risk of alcohol dependence was 2-fold higher in men and 3-fold higher in women with blood or breath alcohol concentrations in the highest quartile than in the lowest quartile. Conclusions: In view of this association and the known genetic influences on both alcohol pharmacokinetics and alcohol dependence, it is probable that part of the heritability of dependence is mediated by genes (other than the known ADH2 and ADH3 polymorphisms) affecting alcohol metabolism.

Molecular weight changes and scission and crosslinking in poly(dimethyl siloxane) on gamma radiolysis

The molecular weight changes which occur on the gamma -radiolysis of poly(dimethyl siloxane) under vacuum between 77 and 373 K and in air at 303 K have been investigated using triple detection GPC to obtain the complete molecular weight distributions for the irradiated samples and to determine the number and weight average molecular weights. The results have been interpreted in terms of the relative yields of scission and crosslinking. The total yields for crosslinking predominate over those for scission at all the temperatures investigated for radiolysis under vacuum. Based on a solid-state Si-29 NMR analysis of PDMS irradiated under vacuum at 303 K, which yielded a value of G(Y) of 1.70, the values of G(S) = 1.15 +/-0.2 and G(H) = 1.45 +/-0.2 were obtained for radiolysis under vacuum at 303 K. For radiolysis in air at 303 K, crosslinking was also predominant, but the nett yield of crosslinking was much less than that observed for radiolysis under vacuum. Under the conditions of the radiolysis in air at 303 K, because of the low solubility of oxygen in PDMS, it is likely that the radiation chemistry is limited by oxygen diffusion. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Melanocortin-1 receptor genotype is a risk factor for basal and squamous cell carcinoma

MC1R gene variants have previously been associated with red hair and fair skin color, moreover skin ultraviolet sensitivity and a strong association with melanoma has been demonstrated for three variant alleles that are active in influencing pigmentation: Arg151Cys, Arg160Trp, and Asp294His. This study has confirmed these pigmentary associations with MC1R genotype in a collection of 220 individuals drawn from the Nambour community in Queensland, Australia, 111 of whom were at high risk and 109 at low risk of basal cell squamous cell carcinoma. Comparative allele frequencies for nine MC1R variants that have been reported in the Caucasian population were determined for these two groups, and an association between prevalence of basal cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, solar keratosis and the same three active MC1R variant alleles was demonstrated [odds ratio=3.15 95% CI (1.7, 5.82)]. Three other commonly occurring variant alleles: Val60Leu, Val92Met, and Arg163Gln were identified as having a minimal impact on pigmentation phenotype as well as basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma risk. A significant heterozygote effect was demonstrated where individuals carrying a single MC1R variant allele were more likely to have fair and sun sensitive skin as well as carriage of a solar lesion when compared with those individuals with a consensus MC1R genotype. After adjusting for the effects of pigmentation on the association between MC1R variant alleles and basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma risk, the association persisted, confirming that presence of at least one variant allele remains informative in terms of predicting risk for developing a solar-induced skin lesion beyond that information gained through observation of pigmentation phenotype.

Multi-fluorescent silica colloids for encoding large combinatorial libraries

Large chemical libraries can be synthesized on solid-support beads by the combinatorial split-and-mix method. A major challenge associated with this type of library synthesis is distinguishing between the beads and their attached compounds. A new method of encoding these solid-support beads, 'colloidal bar-coding', involves attaching fluorescent silica colloids ('reporters') to the beads as they pass through the compound synthesis, thereby creating a fluorescent bar code on each bead. In order to obtain sufficient reporter varieties to bar code extremely large libraries, many of the reporters must contain multiple fluorescent dyes. We describe here the synthesis and spectroscopic analysis of various mono- and multi-fluorescent silica particles for this purpose. It was found that by increasing the amount of a single dye introduced into the particle reaction mixture, mono- fluorescent silica particles of increasing intensities could be prepared. This increase was highly reproducible and was observed for six different fluorescent dyes. Multi-fluorescent silica particles containing up to six fluorescent dyes were also prepared. The resultant emission intensity of each dye in the multi-fluorescent particles was found to be dependent upon a number of factors; the hydrolysis rate of each silane-dye conjugate, the magnitude of the inherent emission intensity of each dye within the silica matrix, and energy transfer effects between dyes. We show that by varying the relative concentration of each silane-dye conjugate in the synthesis of multi-fluorescent particles, it is possible to change and optimize the resultant emission intensity of each dye to enable viewing in a fluorescence detection instrument.