Sediment concentration prediction and statistical evaluation for annual load estimation

We consider the development of statistical models for prediction of constituent concentration of riverine pollutants, which is a key step in load estimation from frequent flow rate data and less frequently collected concentration data. We consider how to capture the impacts of past flow patterns via the average discounted flow (ADF) which discounts the past flux based on the time lapsed - more recent fluxes are given more weight. However, the effectiveness of ADF depends critically on the choice of the discount factor which reflects the unknown environmental cumulating process of the concentration compounds. We propose to choose the discount factor by maximizing the adjusted R-2 values or the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The R2 values are also adjusted to take account of the number of parameters in the model fit. The resulting optimal discount factor can be interpreted as a measure of constituent exhaustion rate during flood events. To evaluate the performance of the proposed regression estimators, we examine two different sampling scenarios by resampling fortnightly and opportunistically from two real daily datasets, which come from two United States Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations located in Des Plaines River and Illinois River basin. The generalized rating-curve approach produces biased estimates of the total sediment loads by -30% to 83%, whereas the new approaches produce relatively much lower biases, ranging from -24% to 35%. This substantial improvement in the estimates of the total load is due to the fact that predictability of concentration is greatly improved by the additional predictors.

A simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials

A flexible and simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials is proposed in this paper. In order to reduce the computational burden, we adopt a working model with conjugate priors, which is flexible to fit all monotonic dose-toxicity curves and produces analytic posterior distributions. We also discuss how to use a proper utility function to reflect the interest of the trial. Patients are allocated based on not only the utility function but also the chosen dose selection rule. The most popular dose selection rule is the one-step-look-ahead (OSLA), which selects the best-so-far dose. A more complicated rule, such as the two-step-look-ahead, is theoretically more efficient than the OSLA only when the required distributional assumptions are met, which is, however, often not the case in practice. We carried out extensive simulation studies to evaluate these two dose selection rules and found that OSLA was often more efficient than two-step-look-ahead under the proposed Bayesian structure. Moreover, our simulation results show that the proposed Bayesian method's performance is superior to several popular Bayesian methods and that the negative impact of prior misspecification can be managed in the design stage.

Fluidity, Permeability And Antioxidant Behavior Of Model Membranes Incorporated With Alpha-Tocopherol And Vitamin-E Acetate

Magnetic resonance studies reveal a marked difference between the binding of α-tocopherol and that of the corresponding acetate (vitamin E acetate) with dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine (DPPC) vesicles. This is reflected in differences in the phase-transition curves of the DPPC vesicles incorporated with the two compounds, as well as in the 13C relaxation times and line widths. A model for the incorporation of these molecules in lipid bilayers has been suggested. α-Tocopherol binds strongly with the lipids, possibly through a hydrogen bond formation between the hydroxyl group of the former and one of the oxygen atoms of the latter. The possibility of such a hydrogen bond formation is excluded in vitamin E acetate, which binds loosely through the normal hydrophobic interaction. The model for lipid-vitamin interaction explains the in vitro decomposition of H2O2 by α-tocopherol. α-Tocopherol in conjuction with H2O2 can also act as a free-radical scavenger in the lipid phase. The incorporation of α-tocopherol and vitamin E acetate in DPPC vesicles enhances the permeability of lipid bilayers for small molecules such as sodium ascorbate.

Analysing commercial catch and effort data from a penaeid trawl fishery: A comparison of linear models, mixed models, and generalised estimating equations approaches

Statistical methods are often used to analyse commercial catch and effort data to provide standardised fishing effort and/or a relative index of fish abundance for input into stock assessment models. Achieving reliable results has proved difficult in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), due to a combination of such factors as the biological characteristics of the animals, some aspects of the fleet dynamics, and the changes in fishing technology. For this set of data, we compared four modelling approaches (linear models, mixed models, generalised estimating equations, and generalised linear models) with respect to the outcomes of the standardised fishing effort or the relative index of abundance. We also varied the number and form of vessel covariates in the models. Within a subset of data from this fishery, modelling correlation structures did not alter the conclusions from simpler statistical models. The random-effects models also yielded similar results. This is because the estimators are all consistent even if the correlation structure is mis-specified, and the data set is very large. However, the standard errors from different models differed, suggesting that different methods have different statistical efficiency. We suggest that there is value in modelling the variance function and the correlation structure, to make valid and efficient statistical inferences and gain insight into the data. We found that fishing power was separable from the indices of prawn abundance only when we offset the impact of vessel characteristics at assumed values from external sources. This may be due to the large degree of confounding within the data, and the extreme temporal changes in certain aspects of individual vessels, the fleet and the fleet dynamics.

A technique for steady-state polarisation of stationary solid electrodes and its applications

A new technique has been devised to achieve a steady-state polarisation of a stationary electrode with a helical shaft rotating coaxial to it. A simplified theory for the convective hydrodynamics prevalent under these conditions has been formulated. Experimental data are presented to verify the steady-state character of the current-potential curves and the predicted dependence of the limiting current on the rotation speed of the rotor, the bulk concentration of the depolariser and the viscosity of the solution. Promising features of the multiple-segment electrodes concentric to a central disc electrode are pointed out.

Kinetics of thermal decomposition of strontium zirconyl carbonate, Sr2Zr2O5CO3

The kinetics of decomposition of the carbonate Sr2Zr2O5CO3, are greatly influenced by the thermal effects during its formation. (α−t) curves are found to be sigmoidal and they could be analysed based on power law equations followed by first-order decay. The presence of carbon in the vacuum-prepared sample of carbonate has a strong deactivating effect. The carbonate is fairly crystalline and its decomposition leads to the formation of crystalline strontium zirconate.

Partial intervertebral fusion secures successful outcomes after thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction: A low-dose computed tomography study

Study Design Retrospective review of prospectively collected data. Objectives To analyze intervertebral (IV) fusion after thoracoscopic anterior spinal fusion (TASF) and explore the relationship between fusion scores and key clinical variables. Summary of Background Information TASF provides comparable correction with some advantages over posterior approaches but reported mechanical complications, and their relationship to non-union and graft material is unclear. Similarly, the optimal combination of graft type and implant stiffness for effecting successful radiologic union remains undetermined. Methods A subset of patients from a large single-center series who had TASF for progressive scoliosis underwent low-dose computed tomographic scans 2 years after surgery. The IV fusion mass in the disc space was assessed using the 4-point Sucato scale, where 1 indicates <50% and 4 indicates 100% bony fusion of the disc space. The effects of rod diameter, rod material, graft type, fusion level, and mechanical complications on fusion scores were assessed. Results Forty-three patients with right thoracic major curves (mean age 14.9 years) participated in the study. Mean fusion scores for patient subgroups ranged from 1.0 (IV levels with rod fractures) to 2.2 (4.5-mm rod with allograft), with scores tending to decrease with increasing rod size and stiffness. Graft type (autograft vs. allograft) did not affect fusion scores. Fusion scores were highest in the middle levels of the rod construct (mean 2.52), dropping off by 20% to 30% toward the upper and lower extremities of the rod. IV levels where a rod fractured had lower overall mean fusion scores compared to levels without a fracture. Mean total Scoliosis Research Society (SRS) questionnaire scores were 98.9 from a possible total of 120, indicating a good level of patient satisfaction. Conclusions Results suggest that 100% radiologic fusion of the entire disc space is not necessary for successful clinical outcomes following thoracoscopic anterior selective thoracic fusion.

Ionisation and attachment in binary mixtures of SF6-N2 and CCl2F2-N2

Experimental results are presented of ionisation (a)a nd electron attachment ( v ) coefficients evaluated from the steady-state Townsend curregnrto wth curves for SFsN2 and CC12FrN2 mixtures over the range 60 S E/P 6 240 (where E is the electric field in V cm" and P is the pressure in Torr reduced to 20'C). In both the mixtures the attachment coefficients (vmu) evaluated were found to follow the relationship; where 7 is the attachment coefficient of pure electronegative gas, F is the fraction of the electronegative gas in the mixture and /3 is a constant. The ionisation coefficients (amlx) generally obeyed the relationship where w2a nd aAa re thei onisation coefficients of nitrogen and the attachinggraess pectively. However, in case of CC12FrN2 mixtures, there were maxima in the a,,,v,a,l ues for CCI2F2 concentrations varying between 10% and 30% at all values of E/P investigated. Effective ionisation coefficients (a - p)/P obtained in these binary mixtures show that the critical E/P (corresponding to (a - q)/P = 0) increases with increase in the concentration of the electronegative gas up to 40%. Further increase in the electronegative gas content does not seem to alter the critical E/P.

Direct shear testing on unsaturated silty soils to investigate the effects of drying and wetting on shear strength parameters at low suction

A modified conventional direct shear device was used to measure unsaturated shear strength of two silty soils at low suction values (0 ~ 50 kPa) that were achieved by following drying and wetting paths of soil water characteristic curves (SWCCs). The results revealed that the internal friction angle of the soils was not significantly affected by either the suction or the drying wetting SWCCs. The apparent cohesion of soil increased with a decreasing rate as suction increased. Shear stress-shear displacement curves obtained from soil specimens subjected to the same net normal stress and different suction values showed a higher initial stiffness and a greater peak stress as suction increased. A soil in wetting exhibited slightly higher peak shear stress and more contractive volume change behavior than that of soil in drying at the same net normal stress and suction.

Photosynthetic responses of subtidal seagrasses to a daily light cycle in Torres Strait: A comparative study

In this study, we examined the photosynthetic responses of five common seagrass species from a typical mixed meadow in Torres Strait at a depth of 5–7 m using pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometry. The photosynthetic response of each species was measured every 2 h throughout a single daily light cycle from dawn (6 am) to dusk (6 pm). PAM fluorometry was used to generate rapid light curves from which measures of electron transport rate (ETRmax), photosynthetic efficiency (α), saturating irradiance (Ek) and light-adapted quantum yield (ΔF/F′m) were derived for each species. The amount of light absorbed by leaves (absorption factor) was also determined for each species. Similar diurnal patterns were recorded among species with 3–4 fold increases in maximal electron rate from dawn to midday and a maintenance of ETRmax in the afternoon that would allow an optimal use of low light by all species. Differences in photosynthetic responses to changes in the daily light regime were also evident with Syringodium isoetifolium showing the highest photosynthetic rates and saturating irradiances suggesting a competitive advantage over other species under conditions of high light. In contrast Halophila ovalis, Halophila decipiens and Halophila spinulosa were characterised by comparatively low photosynthetic rates and minimum light requirements (i.e. low Ek) typical of shade adaptation. The structural makeup of each species may explain the observed differences with large, structurally complex species such as Syringodium isoetifolium and Cymodocea serrulata showing high photosynthetic effciciencies (α) and therefore high-light-adapted traits (e.g. high ETRmax and Ek) compared with the smaller Halophila species positioned lower in the canopy. For the smaller Halophila species these shade-adapted traits are features that optimise their survival during low-light conditions. Knowledge of these characteristics and responses improves our understanding of the underlying causes of changes in seagrass biomass, growth and survival that occur when modifications in light quantity and quality arise from anthropogenic and climatic disturbances that commonly occur in Torres Strait.

Patterns in tropical seagrass photosynthesis in relation to light, depth and habitat

Seagrass meadows across north-eastern Australia, survive a range of environmental conditions in coastal bays, reefs, estuarine and deepwater habitats through adaptation of a range of structural, morphological and physiological features. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of spatial features (habitat type, site and depth) and photon flux on the photosynthetic performance of 11 tropical seagrass species. Pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometry was used to generate rapid light curves from which measures of maximal electron transport rate (ETRmax), photosynthetic efficiency (?), saturating irradiance (Ek) and effective quantum yield (?F/Fm?) were derived. The amount of light absorbed by leaves (absorption factor) was also determined for each population. In intertidal habitats many seagrass species exhibited typical sun-type responses with a close coupling of both ETRmax and Ek with photon flux. Photosynthetic performance ranged from minima in Thalassodendron ciliatum to maxima in Syringodium isoetifolium. The absence of a coupling between photosynthetic performance and photon flux in subtidal populations was most likely due to highly variable light climates and possible light attenuation, and hence the photo-biology of estuarine and deepwater seagrasses exhibited photosynthetic responses indicative of light limitation. In contrast seagrass species from shallow reef and coastal habitats for the most part exhibited light saturation characteristics. Of all the variables examined ETRmax, Ek and ?F/Fm? were most responsive to changing light climates and provide reliable physiological indicators of real-time photosynthetic performance of tropical seagrasses under different light conditions.

An absolute method for the determination of surface tension of liquids using pendent drop profiles

Drop formation at conical tips which is of relevance to metallurgists is investigated based on the principle of minimization of free energy using the variational approach. The dimensionless governing equations for drop profiles are computer solved using the fourth order Runge-Kutta method. For different cone angles, the theoretical plots of XT and ZT vs their ratio, are statistically analyzed, where XT and ZT are the dimensionless x and z coordinates of the drop profile at a plane at the conical tip, perpendicular to the axis of symmetry. Based on the mathematical description of these curves, an absolute method has been proposed for the determination of surface tension of liquids, which is shown to be preferable in comparison with the earlier pendent-drop profile methods.

Transmission loss analysis of rectangular expansion chamber with arbitrary location of inlet/outlet by means of Green's functions

Transmission loss of a rectangular expansion chamber, the inlet and outlet of which are situated at arbitrary locations of the chamber, i.e., the side wall or the face of the chamber, are analyzed here based on the Green's function of a rectangular cavity with homogeneous boundary conditions. The rectangular chamber Green's function is expressed in terms of a finite number of rigid rectangular cavity mode shapes. The inlet and outlet ports are modeled as uniform velocity pistons. If the size of the piston is small compared to wavelength, then the plane wave excitation is a valid assumption. The velocity potential inside the chamber is expressed by superimposing the velocity potentials of two different configurations. The first configuration is a piston source at the inlet port and a rigid termination at the outlet, and the second one is a piston at the outlet with a rigid termination at the inlet. Pressure inside the chamber is derived from velocity potentials using linear momentum equation. The average pressure acting on the pistons at the inlet and outlet locations is estimated by integrating the acoustic pressure over the piston area in the two constituent configurations. The transfer matrix is derived from the average pressure values and thence the transmission loss is calculated. The results are verified against those in the literature where use has been made of modal expansions and also numerical models (FEM fluid). The transfer matrix formulation for yielding wall rectangular chambers has been derived incorporating the structural–acoustic coupling. Parametric studies are conducted for different inlet and outlet configurations, and the various phenomena occurring in the TL curves that cannot be explained by the classical plane wave theory, are discussed.

Baseline responses of Alphitobius diaperinus (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) to spinosad, and susceptibility of broiler populations in eastern and southern Australia

Spinosad was proposed as a potential chemical for control of lesser mealworm, Alphitobius diaperinus (Panzer) (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae), in Australian broiler houses after the detection of strong cyfluthrin resistance in many beetle populations. In 2004-2006, spinosad susceptibility of 13 beetle populations from eastern and southern Australian broiler houses and a cyfluthrin/fenitrothion-resistant reference population was determined using topical application, and was compared with the susceptibility of an insecticide-susceptible reference population. Comparisons of dose-response curves and baseline data showed that all populations, including the insecticide-susceptible population, were roughly equivalent in their response to spinosad, indicating no preexisting spinosad resistance. Two field populations, including the resistant reference population, which had confirmed cyfluthrin/fenitrothion- resistance, showed no cross-resistance to spinosad. There was no significant correlation between beetle weight and LC99.9. A discriminating concentration of 3% spinosad was set to separate resistant and susceptible individuals. Considering the levels of spinosad resistance that have been recorded in other insect pests, the sustained future usefulness of spinosad as a broiler house treatment will rely on effective integrated beetle management programs combined with carefully planned chemical use strategies.

Soil sorption-desorption of phosphorus from piggery effluent compared with inorganic sources

The leaching of phosphorus (P) within soils can be a limiting consideration for the sustainable operation of intensive livestock enterprises. Sorption curves are widely used to assist estimation of P retention, though the effect of effluent constituents on their accuracy is not well understood. We conducted a series of P-sorption-desorption batch experiments with an Oxic Haplustalf (soil 1), Haplusterts (soils 2 and 3), and a Natrustalf (soil 4). Phosphorus sources included effluent, orthophosphate-P in a matrix replicating the effluent's salt constituents (the reference solution), and an orthophosphate-P solution. Treated soils were incubated for up to 193 days before sequential desorption extraction. Effluent constituents, probably the organic or particulate components, temporarily increased the vulnerability of sorbed-P to desorption. The increase in vulnerability was removed by 2-113 days of incubation (25 degrees C). Despite vigorous extraction for 20 consecutive days, some P sorbed as part of the treatments of soils 1 and 2 was not desorbed. The increased vulnerability due to effluent constituents lasted a maximum of about one cropping season and, for all other treatments, adsorption curves overestimated vulnerability to desorption. Therefore, adsorption curves provide a conservative estimate of vulnerability to desorption where effluent is used in continued crop production in these soils.