Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale

Land cover data derived from satellites are commonly used to prescribe inputs to models of the land surface. Since such data inevitably contains errors, quantifying how uncertainties in the data affect a model’s output is important. To do so, a spatial distribution of possible land cover values is required to propagate through the model’s simulation. However, at large scales, such as those required for climate models, such spatial modelling can be difficult. Also, computer models often require land cover proportions at sites larger than the original map scale as inputs, and it is the uncertainty in these proportions that this article discusses. This paper describes a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates realisations of land cover proportions from the posterior distribution as implied by a Bayesian analysis that combines spatial information in the land cover map and its associated confusion matrix. The technique is computationally simple and has been applied previously to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales. This article demonstrates the ability of the technique to scale up to large (global) satellite derived land cover maps and reports its application to the GlobCover 2009 data product. The results show that, in general, the GlobCover data possesses only small biases, with the largest belonging to non–vegetated surfaces. In vegetated surfaces, the most prominent area of uncertainty is Southern Africa, which represents a complex heterogeneous landscape. It is also clear from this study that greater resources need to be devoted to the construction of comprehensive confusion matrices.

CHP toolkit: case study of LAIe sensitivity to discontinuity of canopy cover in fruit plantations

This paper presents an open-source canopy height profile (CHP) toolkit designed for processing small-footprint full-waveform LiDAR data to obtain the estimates of effective leaf area index (LAIe) and CHPs. The use of the toolkit is presented with a case study of LAIe estimation in discontinuous-canopy fruit plantations. The experiments are carried out in two study areas, namely, orange and almond plantations, with different percentages of canopy cover (48% and 40%, respectively). For comparison, two commonly used discrete-point LAIe estimation methods are also tested. The LiDAR LAIe values are first computed for each of the sites and each method as a whole, providing “apparent” site-level LAIe, which disregards the discontinuity of the plantations’ canopies. Since the toolkit allows for the calculation of the study area LAIe at different spatial scales, between-tree-level clumpingcan be easily accounted for and is then used to illustrate the impact of the discontinuity of canopy cover on LAIe retrieval. The LiDAR LAIe estimates are therefore computed at smaller scales as a mean of LAIe in various grid-cell sizes, providing estimates of “actual” site-level LAIe. Subsequently, the LiDAR LAIe results are compared with theoretical models of “apparent” LAIe versus “actual” LAIe, based on known percent canopy cover in each site. The comparison of those models to LiDAR LAIe derived from the smallest grid-cell sizes against the estimates of LAIe for the whole site has shown that the LAIe estimates obtained from the CHP toolkit provided values that are closest to those of theoretical models.

Effects of roads, topography, and land use on forest cover dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Roads and topography can determine patterns of land use and distribution of forest cover, particularly in tropical regions. We evaluated how road density, land use, and topography affected forest fragmentation, deforestation and forest regrowth in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest region near the city of Sao Paulo. We mapped roads and land use/land cover for three years (1962, 1981 and 2000) from historical aerial photographs, and summarized the distribution of roads, land use/land cover and topography within a grid of 94 non-overlapping 100 ha squares. We used generalized least squares regression models for data analysis. Our models showed that forest fragmentation and deforestation depended on topography, land use and road density, whereas forest regrowth depended primarily on land use. However, the relationships between these variables and forest dynamics changed in the two studied periods; land use and slope were the strongest predictors from 1962 to 1981, and past (1962) road density and land use were the strongest predictors for the following period (1981-2000). Roads had the strongest relationship with deforestation and forest fragmentation when the expansions of agriculture and buildings were limited to already deforested areas, and when there was a rapid expansion of development, under influence of Sao Paulo city. Furthermore, the past(1962)road network was more important than the recent road network (1981) when explaining forest dynamics between 1981 and 2000, suggesting a long-term effect of roads. Roads are permanent scars on the landscape and facilitate deforestation and forest fragmentation due to increased accessibility and land valorization, which control land-use and land-cover dynamics. Topography directly affected deforestation, agriculture and road expansion, mainly between 1962 and 1981. Forest are thus in peril where there are more roads, and long-term conservation strategies should consider ways to mitigate roads as permanent landscape features and drivers facilitators of deforestation and forest fragmentation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A review of the tectonic evolution of the Sunsas belt, SW Amazonian Craton

The Sunsas-Aguapei province (1.20-0.95 Ga), SW Amazonian Craton, is a key area to study the heterogeneous effects of collisional events with Laurentia, which shows evidence of the Grenvillian and Sunsas orogens. The Sunsas orogen, characterized by an allochthonous collisional-type belt (1.11-1.00 Ga), is the youngest and southwestern most of the events recorded along the cratonic fringe. Its evolution occurred after a period of long quiescence and erosion of the already cratonized provinces (>1.30 Ga), that led to sedimentation of the Sunsas and Vibosi groups in a passive margin setting. The passive margin stage was roughly contemporary with intraplate tectonics that produced the Nova Brasilandia proto-oceanic basin (<1.21 Ga), the reactivation of the Ji-Parana shear zone network (1.18-1.12 Ga) and a system of aborted rifts that evolved to the Huanchaca-Aguapei basin (1.17-1.15 Ga). The Sunsas belt is comprised by the metamorphosed Sunsas and Vibosi sequences, the Rincon del Tigre mafic-ultramafic sill and granitic intrusive suites. The latter rocks yield epsilon(Nd(t)) signatures (-0.5 to -4.5) and geochemistry (S,1, A-types) suggesting their origin associated with a continental arc setting. The Sunsas belt evolution is marked by ""tectonic fronts"" with sinistral offsets that was active from c. 1.08 to 1.05 Ga, along the southern edge of the Paragua microcontinent where K/Ar ages (1.27-1.34 Ga) and the Huanchaca-Aguapei flat-lying cover attest to the earliest tectonic stability at the time of the orogen. The Sunsas dynamics is coeval with inboard crustal shortening, transpression and magmatism in the Nova Brasilandia belt (1.13-1.00 Ga). Conversely, the Aguapei aulacogen (0.96-0.91 Ga) and nearby shear zones (0.93-0.91 Ga) are the late tectonic offshoots over the cratonic margin. The post-tectonic to anorogenic stages took place after ca. 1.00 Ga, evidenced by the occurrences of intra-plate A-type granites, pegmatites, mafic dikes and sills, as well as of graben basins. Integrated interpretation of the available data related to the Sunsas orogen supports the idea that the main nucleus of Rodinia incorporated the terrains forming the SW corner of Amazonia and most of the Grenvillian margin, as a result of two independent collisional events, as indicated in the Amazon region by the Ji-Parana shear zone event and the Sunsas belt, respectively. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Paleomagnetic data and K-Ar ages from Mesozoic units of the Santa Marta massif: A preliminary interpretation for block rotation and translations

We report 6 K-Ar ages and paleomagnetic data from 28 sites collected in Jurassic, Lower Cretaceous and Paleocene rocks of the Santa Marta massif, to test previous hypothesis of rotations and translations of this massif, whose rock assemblage differs from other basement-cored ranges adjacent to the Guyana margin. Three magnetic components were identified in this study. A first component has a direction parallel to the present magnetic field and was uncovered in all units (D 352, I = 25.6, k = 57.35, a95 = 5.3, N = 12). A second component was isolated in Cretaceous limestone and Jurassic volcaniclastic rocks (D = 8.8, I = 8.3, k = 24.71, a95 = 13.7, N = 6), and it was interpreted as of Early Cretaceous age. In Jurassic sites with this component, Early Cretaceous K-Ar ages obtained from this and previous studies are interpreted as reset ages. The third component was uncovered in eight sites of Jurassic volcaniclastic rocks, and its direction indicates negative shallow to moderate inclinations and northeastward declinations. K-Ar ages in these sites are of Early (196.5 +/- 4.9 Ma) to early Late Jurassic age (156.6 +/- 8.9 Ma). Due to local structural complexity and too few Cretaceous outcrops to perform a reliable unconformity test, we only used two sites with (1) K-Ar ages, (2) less structural complexity, and (3) reliable structural data for Jurassic and Cretaceous rocks. The mean direction of the Jurassic component is (D = 20.4, I = -18.2, k = 46.9, a95 = 5.1, n = 18 specimens from two sites). These paleomagnetic data support previous models of northward along-margin translations of Grenvillian-cored massifs. Additionally, clockwise vertical-axis rotation of this massif, with respect to the stable craton, is also documented; the sense of rotation is similar to that proposed for the Perija Range and other ranges of the southern Caribbean margin. More data is needed to confirm the magnitudes of rotations and translations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minimum cycle cover and Chinese postman problems on mixed graphs with bounded tree-width

Let M = (V, E, A) be a mixed graph with vertex set V, edge set E and arc set A. A cycle cover of M is a family C = {C(1), ... , C(k)} of cycles of M such that each edge/arc of M belongs to at least one cycle in C. The weight of C is Sigma(k)(i=1) vertical bar C(i)vertical bar. The minimum cycle cover problem is the following: given a strongly connected mixed graph M without bridges, find a cycle cover of M with weight as small as possible. The Chinese postman problem is: given a strongly connected mixed graph M, find a minimum length closed walk using all edges and arcs of M. These problems are NP-hard. We show that they can be solved in polynomial time if M has bounded tree-width. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Representation and interpretation : textbooks, teachers, and historical culture

This article presents a study of how contemporary Swedish lower secondary school textbooks present the emergence of the Cold War and how 10 active lower secondary school history teachers interpreted a quotation that was ambiguous in relation to the general narrative in the studied Swedish textbooks, seeking to analyse textbooks both from the perspectives of content and reception. Applying a theoretical framework of uses of history, the study finds that the narratives presented in the studied textbooks are what could be called traditional in the sense that they do not acknowledge perspective and representation in history. While the interviewed teachers generally acknowledged that textbook narratives are representations of history and contingent on perspective, few teachers extended this to include how their own views affect their interpretations, suggesting an intermediary appreciation of the contextual contingency of historical narratives.

The world of the Sumerian mother goddess : an interpretation of her myths

The present study is an interpretation of the two myths copied in the Old Babylonian period in which the Sumerian mother goddess is one of the main actors. The first myth is commonly called “Enki and Ninḫursaĝa”, and the second “Enki and Ninmaḫ”. The theoretical point of departure is that myths have society as their referents, i.e. they are “talking about” society, and that this is done in an ideological way. This study aims at investigating on the one hand which contexts in the Mesopotamian society each section of the myths refers to, and on the other hand which ideological aspects that the myths express in terms of power relations. The myths are contextualized in relation to their historical and social setting. If the myth for example deals with working men, male work in the area during the relevant period is discussed. The same method of contextualization is used regarding marriage, geographical points of reference and so on. Also constellations of mythical ideas are contextualized, through comparison with similar constellations in other Mesopotamian myths. Besides the method of contextualization, the power relations in the myths are investigated. According to this latter method, the categories at issue, their ranking, as well as their changed ranking, are noted. The topics of the myths are issues important for the kingship and the country, such as irrigation, trade, health and healing, birth, collective work, artisanry and rivalry. All these aspects are used in order to express what the power relations between the goddess Ninḫursaĝa/Ninmaḫ and the god Enki look like. The relations are negotiated and recalibrated, which leads to the goddess getting a lowered status. Part of the negotiations and recalibrations is gender behavior, which is related to historical developments in society. The present work points to the function of these myths as tools of recalibrating not only deities, but also men and women in society.