Modelling port water collision risk using traffic conflicts

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influencing factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modeling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Estimation results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher for night-time conditions.

Big-five personality factors affecting driving behaviours

The factors affecting driving behaviors are various and interact simultaneously. Therefore, study of their correlations affecting on driving behaviors is of interest. This paper reports a questionnaire survey in China, focusing on the effect of Big-Five factors on speeding, drink driving, and distracted driving while Akers' social learning theory and Homel's deterrence theory were applied. The results showed that personalities had significant effect on speeding and drink driving; social factors had significant effect on speeding and distracted driving; deterrence had significant effect on speeding and drink driving; however, social learning theory did not contribute to drink driving; deterrence did not affect distracted driving. The results were discussed along with the limitation of this study.

Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis

Most crash severity studies ignored severity correlations between driver-vehicle units involved in the same crashes. Models without accounting for these within-crash correlations will result in biased estimates in the factor effects. This study developed a Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic model to identify the significant factors affecting the severity level of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at signalized intersections. Crash data in Singapore were employed to calibrate the model. Model fitness assessment and comparison using Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) ensured the suitability of introducing the crash-level random effects. Crashes occurring in peak time, in good street lighting condition, involving pedestrian injuries are associated with a lower severity, while those in night time, at T/Y type intersections, on right-most lane, and installed with red light camera have larger odds of being severe. Moreover, heavy vehicles have a better resistance on severe crash, while crashes involving two-wheel vehicles, young or aged drivers, and the involvement of offending party are more likely to result in severe injuries.

Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

Validation of a food behavior questionnaire for male blue collar workers

During nutrition intervention programs, some form of dietary assessment is usually necessary. This dietary assessment can be for: initial screening; development of appropriate programs and activities; or, evaluation. Established methods of dietary assessment are not always practical, nor cost effective in such interventions, therefore an abbreviated dietary assessment tool is needed. The Queensland Nutrition Project developed such a tool for male Blue Collar Workers, the Food Behaviour Questionnaire, consisting of 27 food behaviour related questions. This tool has been validated in a sample of 23 men, through full dietary assessment obtained via food frequency questionnaires and 24 hour dietary recalls. Those questions which correlated poorly with the full dietary assessment were deleted from the tool. In all, 13 questions was all that was required to distinguish between high and low dietary intakes of particular nutrients. Three questions when combined had correlations with refined sugar between 0.617 and 0.730 (p<0.005); four questions when combined had correlations with dietary fibre as percentage of energy of 0.45 (p<0.05); five questions when combined had a correlation with total fat of 0.499 (p<0.05); and, 4 questions when combined had a correlation with saturated fat of between 0.451 and 0.589 (p<0.05). A significant correlation could not be found for food behaviour questions with respect to dietary sodium. Correlations for fat as a function of energy could not be found.

Perceived collision risks in anchorages : a hierarchical ordered probit analysis

Navigational collisions are a major safety concern in many seaports. Despite the recent advances in port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in anchorages. This study attempts to model such risks by employing a hierarchical ordered probit model, which is calibrated by using data collected through a risk perception survey conducted on Singapore port pilots. The hierarchical model is found to be useful to account for correlations in risks perceived by individual pilots. Results show higher perceived risks in anchorages attached to intersection, local and international fairway; becoming more critical at night. Lesser risks are perceived in anchorages featuring shoreline in boundary, higher water depth, lower density of stationary ships, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Pilotage experience shows a negative effect on perceived risks. This study indicates that hierarchical modeling would be useful for treating correlations in navigational safety data.

Statistical analysis of conflict involvements in port water navigation

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is likely to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies in port waters, it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. A convenient approach of investigating navigational collision risk is the application of the traffic conflict techniques, which have potential to overcome the difficulty of obtaining statistical soundness. This study aims at examining port water conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of collision risk with regard to vessels involved, conflict locations, traffic and kinematic conditions. A hierarchical binomial logit model, which considers the potential correlations between observation-units, i.e., vessels, involved in the same conflicts, is employed to evaluate the association of explanatory variables with conflict severity levels. Results show higher likelihood of serious conflicts for vessels of small gross tonnage or small overall length. The probability of serious conflict also increases at locations where vessels have more varied headings, such as traffic intersections and anchorages; becoming more critical at night time. Findings from this research should assist both navigators operating in port waters as well as port authorities overseeing navigational management.

Ozone-initiated particle formation, particle aging, and precursors in a laser printer

An increasing number of researchers have hypothesized that ozone may be involved in the particle formation processes that occur during printing, however no studies have investigated this further. In the current study, this hypothesis was tested in a chamber study by adding supplemental ozone to the chamber after a print job without measurable ozone emissions. Subsequent particle number concentration and size distribution measurements showed that new particles were formed minutes after the addition of ozone. The results demonstrated that ozone did react with printer-generated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to form secondary organic aerosols (SOAs). The hypothesis was further confirmed by the observation of correlations among VOCs, ozone, and particles concentrations during a print job with measurable ozone emissions. The potential particle precursors were identified by a number of furnace tests, which suggested that squalene and styrene were the most likely SOA precursors with respect to ozone. Overall, this study significantly improved scientific understanding of the formation mechanisms of printer-generated particles, and highlighted the possible SOA formation potential of unsaturated nonterpene organic compounds by ozone-initiated reactions in the indoor environment. © 2011 American Chemical Society.

Introduction: Is a General Theory of Violence Possible?

"There once was a man who aspired to be the author of the general theory of holes. When asked ‘What kind of hole—holes dug by children in the sand for amusement, holes dug by gardeners to plant lettuce seedlings, tank traps, holes made by road makers?’ he would reply indignantly that he wished for a general theory that would explain all of these. He rejected ab initio the—as he saw it—pathetically common-sense view that of the digging of different kinds of holes there are quite different kinds of explanations to be given; why then he would ask do we have the concept of a hole? Lacking the explanations to which he originally aspired, he then fell to discovering statistically significant correlations; he found for example that there is a correlation between the aggregate hole-digging achievement of a society as measured, or at least one day to be measured, by econometric techniques, and its degree of techno- logical development. The United States surpasses both Paraguay and Upper Volta in hole-digging; there are more holes in Vietnam than there were. These observations, he would always insist, were neutral and value-free. This man’s achievement has passed totally unnoticed except by me. Had he however turned his talents to political science, had he concerned himself not with holes, but with modernization, urbanization or violence, I find it difficult to believe that he might not have achieved high office in the APSA." (MacIntyre 1971, 260)

The 3D kinematics of the single leg flat and decline squat

Background: Pre-participation screening is commonly used to measure and assess potential intrinsic injury risk. The single leg squat is one such clinical screening measure used to assess lumbopelvic stability and associated intrinsic injury risk. With the addition of a decline board, the single leg decline squat (SLDS) has been shown to reduce ankle dorsiflexion restrictions and allowed greater sagittal plane movement of the hip and knee. On this basis, the SLDS has been employed in the Cricket Australia physiotherapy screening protocols as a measure of lumbopelvic control in the place of the more traditional single leg flat squat (SLFS). Previous research has failed to demonstrate which squatting technique allows for a more comprehensive assessment of lumbopelvic stability. Tenuous links are drawn between kinematics and hip strength measures within the literature for the SLS. Formal evaluation of subjective screening methods has also been suggested within the literature. Purpose: This study had several focal points namely 1) to compare the kinematic differences between the two single leg squatting conditions, primarily the five key kinematic variables fundamental to subjectively assess lumbopelvic stability; 2) determine the effect of ankle dorsiflexion range of motion has on squat kinematics in the two squat techniques; 3) examine the association between key kinematics and subjective physiotherapists’ assessment; and finally 4) explore the association between key kinematics and hip strength. Methods: Nineteen (n=19) subjects performed five SLDS and five SLFS on each leg while being filmed by an 8 camera motion analysis system. Four hip strength measures (internal/external rotation and abd/adduction) and ankle dorsiflexion range of motion were measured using a hand held dynamometer and a goniometer respectively on 16 of these subjects. The same 16 participants were subjectively assessed by an experienced physiotherapist for lumbopelvic stability. Paired samples t-tests were performed on the five predetermined kinematic variables to assess the differences between squat conditions. A Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons was used which adjusted the significance value to p = 0.005 for the paired t-tests. Linear regressions were used to assess the relationship between kinematics, ankle range of motion and hip strength measures. Bivariate correlations between hip strength measures and kinematics and pelvic obliquity were employed to investigate any possible relationships. Results: 1) Significant kinematic differences between squats were observed in dominant (D) and non-dominant (ND) end of range hip external rotation (ND p = <0.001; D p = 0.004) and hip adduction kinematics (ND p = <0.001; D p = <0.001). With the mean angle, only the non-dominant leg observed significant differences in hip adduction (p = 0.001) and hip external rotation (p = <0.001); 2) Significant linear relationships were observed between clinical measures of ankle dorsiflexion and sagittal plane kinematic namely SLFS dominant ankle (p = 0.006; R2 = .429), SLFS non-dominant knee (p = 0.015; R2 = .352) and SLFS non-dominant ankle (p = 0.027; R2 = .305) kinematics. Only the dominant ankle (p = 0.020; R2 = .331) was found to have a relationship with the decline squat. 3) Strength measures had tenuous associations with the subjective assessments of lumbopelvic stability with no significant relationships being observed. 4) For the non-dominant leg, external rotation strength and abduction strength were found to be significantly correlated with hip rotation kinematics (Newtons r = 0.458 p = 0.049; Normalised for bodyweight: r = 0.469; p = 0.043) and pelvic obliquity (normalised for bodyweight: r = 0.498 p = 0.030) respectively for the SLFS only. No significant relationships were observed in the dominant leg for either squat condition. Some elements of the hip strength screening protocols had linear relationships with kinematics of the lower limb, particularly the sagittal plane movements of the knee and ankle. Strength measures had tenuous associations with the subjective assessments of lumbopelvic stability with no significant relationships being observed; Discussion: The key finding of this study illustrated that kinematic differences can occur at the hip without significant kinematic differences at the knee as a result of the introduction of a decline board. Further observations reinforce the role of limited ankle dorsiflexion range of motion on sagittal plane movement of the hip and knee and in turn multiplanar kinematics of the lower limb. The kinematic differences between conditions have clinical implications for screening protocols that employ frontal plane movement of the knee as a guide for femoral adduction and rotation. Subjects who returned stronger hip strength measurements also appeared to squat deeper as characterised by differences in sagittal plane kinematics of the knee and ankle. Despite the aforementioned findings, the relationship between hip strength and lower limb kinematics remains largely tenuous in the assessment of the lumbopelvic stability using the SLS. The association between kinematics and the subjective measures of lumbopelvic stability also remain tenuous between and within SLS screening protocols. More functional measures of hip strength are needed to further investigate these relationships. Conclusion: The type of SLS (flat or decline) should be taken into account when screening for lumbopelvic stability. Changes to lower limb kinematics, especially around the hip and pelvis, were observed with the introduction of a decline board despite no difference in frontal plane knee movements. Differences in passive ankle dorsiflexion range of motion yielded variations in knee and ankle kinematics during a self-selected single leg squatting task. Clinical implications of removing posterior ankle restraints and using the knee as a guide to illustrate changes at the hip may result in inaccurate screening of lumbopelvic stability. The relationship between sagittal plane lower limb kinematics and hip strength may illustrate that self-selected squat depth may presumably be a useful predictor of the lumbopelvic stability. Further research in this area is required.

Listening skill requires a further look into second/foreign language learning

Current English-as-a-second and foreign-language (ESL/EFL) research has encouraged to treat each communicative macroskill separately due to space constraint, but the interrelationship among these skills (listening, speaking, reading, and writing) is not paid due attention. This study attempts to examine first the existing relationship among the four dominant skills, second the potential impact of reading background on the overall language proficiency, and finally the relationship between listening and overall language proficiency as listening is considered an overlooked/passive skill in the pedagogy of the second/foreign language classroom. However, the literature in language learning has revealed that listening skill has salient importance in both first and second language learning. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of each of four skills in EFL learning and their existing interrelationships in an EFL setting. The outcome of 701 Iranian applicants undertaking International English Language Testing System (IELTS) in Tehran demonstrates that all communicative macroskills have varied correlations from moderate (reading and writing) to high (listening and reading). The findings also show that the applicants’ reading history assisted them in better performing at high stakes tests, and what is more, listening skill was strongly correlated with the overall language proficiency.

The effect of post-exercise hydrotherapy on subsequent exercise performance and heart rate variability

We investigated the effect of hydrotherapy on time-trial performance and cardiac parasympathetic reactivation during recovery from intense training. On three occasions, 18 well-trained cyclists completed 60 min high-intensity cycling, followed 20 min later by one of three 10-min recovery interventions: passive rest (PAS), cold water immersion (CWI), or contrast water immersion (CWT). The cyclists then rested quietly for 160 min with R-R intervals and perceptions of recovery recorded every 30 min. Cardiac parasympathetic activity was evaluated using the natural logarithm of the square root of mean squared differences of successive R-R intervals (ln rMSSD). Finally, the cyclists completed a work-based cycling time trial. Effects were examined using magnitude-based inferences. Differences in time-trial performance between the three trials were trivial. Compared with PAS, general fatigue was very likely lower for CWI (difference [90% confidence limits; -12% (-18; -5)]) and CWT [-11% (-19; -2)]. Leg soreness was almost certainly lower following CWI [-22% (-30; -14)] and CWT [-27% (-37; -15)]. The change in mean ln rMSSD following the recovery interventions (ln rMSSD(Post-interv)) was almost certainly higher following CWI [16.0% (10.4; 23.2)] and very likely higher following CWT [12.5% (5.5; 20.0)] compared with PAS, and possibly higher following CWI [3.7% (-0.9; 8.4)] compared with CWT. The correlations between performance, ln rMSSD(Post-interv) and perceptions of recovery were unclear. A moderate correlation was observed between ln rMSSD(Post-interv) and leg soreness [r = -0.50 (-0.66; -0.29)]. Although the effects of CWI and CWT on performance were trivial, the beneficial effects on perceptions of recovery support the use of these recovery strategies.

Utility of corneal confocal microscopy for assessing mild diabetic neuropathy: baseline findings of the LANDMark study

Background:  For those in the field of managing diabetic complications, the accurate diagnosis and monitoring of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) continues to be a challenge. Assessment of sub-basal corneal nerve morphology has recently shown promise as a novel ophthalmic marker for the detection of DPN. Methods:  Two hundred and thirty-one individuals with diabetes with predominantly mild or no neuropathy and 61 controls underwent evaluation of diabetic neuropathy symptom score, neuropathy disability score, testing with 10 g monofilament, quantitative sensory testing (warm, cold, vibration detection) and nerve conduction studies. Corneal nerve fibre length, branch density and tortuosity were measured using corneal confocal microscopy. Differences in corneal nerve morphology between individuals with and without DPN and controls were investigated using analysis of variance and correlations were determined between corneal morphology and established tests of, and risk factors for, DPN. Results:  Corneal nerve fibre length was significantly reduced in diabetic individuals with mild DPN compared with both controls (p < 0.001) and diabetic individuals without DPN (p = 0.012). Corneal nerve branch density was significantly reduced in individuals with mild DPN compared with controls (p = 0.032). Corneal nerve fibre tortuosity did not show significant differences. Corneal nerve fibre length and corneal nerve branch density showed modest correlations to most measures of neuropathy, with the strongest correlations to nerve conduction study parameters (r = 0.15 to 0.25). Corneal nerve fibre tortuosity showed only a weak correlation to the vibration detection threshold. Corneal nerve fibre length was inversely correlated to glycated haemoglobin (r = -0.24) and duration of diabetes (r = -0.20). Conclusion:  Assessment of corneal nerve morphology is a non-invasive, rapid test capable of showing differences between individuals with and without DPN. Corneal nerve fibre length shows the strongest associations with other diagnostic tests of neuropathy and with established risk factors for neuropathy.

The psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the Foot Health Status Questionnaire

Purpose: Clinical studies suggest that foot pain may be problematic in one-third of patients in early disease. The Foot Health Status Questionnaire (FHSQ) was developed and validated to evaluate the effectiveness of conservative (orthoses, taping, stretching) and surgery interventions. Despite this fact, there are few validated instruments that measure foot health status in Spanish. Thus, the primary aim of the current study was to translate and evaluate psychometrically a Spanish version of FHSQ. Methods: A cross-sectional study was designed in a university community-based podiatric clinic located in south of Spain. All participants (n = 107) recruited consecutively completed a Spanish version of FHSQ and EuroQoL Health Questionnaire 5 dimensions, and 29 participants repeated these same measures 48 h later. Data analysis included test–retest reliability, construct and criterion-related validity and factor analyses. Results: Construct validity was appropriate with moderate-to-high corrected item–subscale correlations (α = ≥0.739) for all subscales. Test–retest reliability was satisfactory (ICC > 0.932). Factor analysis revealed four dimensions with 86.6 % of the common variance explained. The confirmatory factor analysis findings demonstrated that the proposed structure was well supported (comparative fit index = 0.92, standardized root mean square = 0.09). The Spanish EuroQoL 5D score negatively correlated with the FHSQ pain (r = −0.445) and positively with general foot health and function (r = 0.261 − 0.579), confirming criterion-related validity. Conclusion: The clinimetric properties of the Spanish version of FHSQ were satisfactory.

Deriving a preference-based measure for cancer using the EORTC QLQ-C30 : a confirmatory versus exploratory approach

Background: To derive preference-based measures from various condition-specific descriptive health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measures. A general 2-stage method is evolved: 1) an item from each domain of the HRQOL measure is selected to form a health state classification system (HSCS); 2) a sample of health states is valued and an algorithm derived for estimating the utility of all possible health states. The aim of this analysis was to determine whether confirmatory or exploratory factor analysis (CFA, EFA) should be used to derive a cancer-specific utility measure from the EORTC QLQ-C30. Methods: Data were collected with the QLQ-C30v3 from 356 patients receiving palliative radiotherapy for recurrent or metastatic cancer (various primary sites). The dimensional structure of the QLQ-C30 was tested with EFA and CFA, the latter based on a conceptual model (the established domain structure of the QLQ-C30: physical, role, emotional, social and cognitive functioning, plus several symptoms) and clinical considerations (views of both patients and clinicians about issues relevant to HRQOL in cancer). The dimensions determined by each method were then subjected to item response theory, including Rasch analysis. Results: CFA results generally supported the proposed conceptual model, with residual correlations requiring only minor adjustments (namely, introduction of two cross-loadings) to improve model fit (increment χ2(2) = 77.78, p < .001). Although EFA revealed a structure similar to the CFA, some items had loadings that were difficult to interpret. Further assessment of dimensionality with Rasch analysis aligned the EFA dimensions more closely with the CFA dimensions. Three items exhibited floor effects (>75% observation at lowest score), 6 exhibited misfit to the Rasch model (fit residual > 2.5), none exhibited disordered item response thresholds, 4 exhibited DIF by gender or cancer site. Upon inspection of the remaining items, three were considered relatively less clinically important than the remaining nine. Conclusions: CFA appears more appropriate than EFA, given the well-established structure of the QLQ-C30 and its clinical relevance. Further, the confirmatory approach produced more interpretable results than the exploratory approach. Other aspects of the general method remain largely the same. The revised method will be applied to a large number of data sets as part of the international and interdisciplinary project to develop a multi-attribute utility instrument for cancer (MAUCa).