Combining elicited expert knowledge into Bayesian priors

Information that is elicited from experts can be treated as `data', so can be analysed using a Bayesian statistical model, to formulate a prior model. Typically methods for encoding a single expert's knowledge have been parametric, constrained by the extent of an expert's knowledge and energy regarding a target parameter. Interestingly these methods have often been deterministic, in that all elicited information is treated at `face value', without error. Here we sought a parametric and statistical approach for encoding assessments from multiple experts. Our recent work proposed and demonstrated the use of a flexible hierarchical model for this purpose. In contrast to previous mathematical approaches like linear or geometric pooling, our new approach accounts for several sources of variation: elicitation error, encoding error and expert diversity. Of interest are the practical, mathematical and philosophical interpretations of this form of hierarchical pooling (which is both statistical and parametric), and how it fits within the subjective Bayesian paradigm. Case studies from a bioassay and project management (on PhDs) are used to illustrate the approach.

Error and uncertainty of adult age estimation of the pubic symphysis in an Australian sub-population using computed tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of: (1) the error and uncertainty associated with the application of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation of the pubic symphysis to a contemporary Australian population; (2) the implications of sexual dimorphism and bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis through preliminary geometric morphometric assessment; and (3) the value of three-dimensional (3D) autopsy data acquisition for creating forensic anthropological standards. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating that, in the absence of demographically sound skeletal collections, post-mortem autopsy data provides an exciting platform for the construction of large contemporary ‘virtual osteological libraries’ for which forensic anthropological research can be conducted on Australian individuals. More specifically, this study assesses the applicability and accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia, and using a geometric morphometric approach, provides an insight to the age-related degeneration of the pubic symphysis. Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (1990) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations1-4. Australian forensic anthropology is constrained by a paucity of population specific standards due to a lack of repositories of documented skeletons. Consequently, in Australian casework proceedings, standards constructed from predominately American reference samples are applied to establish a biological profile. In the global era of terrorism and natural disasters, more specific population standards are required to improve the efficiency of medico-legal death investigation in Queensland. The sample comprises multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis (slice thickness: 0.5mm, overlap: 0.1mm) on 195 individuals of caucasian ethnicity aged 15-70 years. Volume rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in Amira® (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform® XOS. The sample was divided into ten-year age sub-sets (eg. 15-24) with a final sub-set of 65-70 years. Error with respect to the method’s assigned means were analysed on the basis of bias (directionality of error), inaccuracy (magnitude of error) and percentage correct classification of left and right symphyseal surfaces. Morphometric variables including surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone composition were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The results of this study demonstrated correct age classification utilizing the mean and standard deviations of each phase of the S-B method of 80.02% and 86.18% in Australian males and females, respectively. Application of the S-B method resulted in positive biases and mean inaccuracies of 7.24 (±6.56) years for individuals less than 55 years of age, compared to negative biases and mean inaccuracies of 5.89 (±3.90) years for individuals greater than 55 years of age. Statistically significant differences between chronological and S-B mean age were demonstrated in 83.33% and 50% of the six age subsets in males and females, respectively. Asymmetry of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon with 53.33% of the Queensland population exhibiting statistically significant (χ2 - p<0.01) differential phase classification of left and right surfaces of the same individual. Directionality was found in bilateral asymmetry, with the right symphyseal faces being slightly older on average and providing more accurate estimates using the S-B method5. Morphometric analysis verified these findings, with the left surface exhibiting significantly greater circumference and surface area than the right (p<0.05). Morphometric analysis demonstrated an increase in maximum height and width of the surface with age, with most significant changes (p<0.05) occurring between the 25-34 and 55-64 year age subsets. These differences may be attributed to hormonal components linked to menopause in females and a reduction in testosterone in males. Micro-architectural analysis demonstrated degradation of cortical composition with age, with differential bone resorption between the medial, ventral and dorsal surfaces of the pubic symphysis. This study recommends that the S-B method be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of unknown skeletal remains in Queensland. Age estimation will always be accompanied by error; therefore this study demonstrates the potential for quantitative morphometric modelling of age related changes of the pubic symphysis as a tool for methodological refinement, providing a rigor and robust assessment to remove the subjectivity associated with current pelvic aging methods.

Convergence and divergence during the adaptation to similar environments by an Australian Groundsel

Adaptation to replicate environments is often achieved through similar phenotypic solutions. Whether selection also produces convergent genomic changes in these situations remains largely unknown. The variable groundsel, Senecio lautus, is an excellent system to investigate the genetic underpinnings of convergent evolution, because morphologically similar forms of these plants have adapted to the same environments along the coast of Australia. We compared range-wide patterns of genomic divergence in natural populations of this plant and searched for regions putatively affected by natural selection. Our results indicate that environmental adaptation followed complex genetic trajectories, affecting multiple loci, implying both the parallel recruitment of the same alleles and the divergence of completely different genomic regions across geography. An analysis of the biological functions of candidate genes suggests that adaptation to coastal environments may have occurred through the recruitment of different genes participating in similar processes. The relatively low genetic convergence that characterizes the parallel evolution of S. lautus forms suggests that evolution is more constrained at higher levels of biological organization.

Composite SaaS resource management in cloud computing using evolutionary computation

Cloud computing is an emerging computing paradigm in which IT resources are provided over the Internet as a service to users. One such service offered through the Cloud is Software as a Service or SaaS. SaaS can be delivered in a composite form, consisting of a set of application and data components that work together to deliver higher-level functional software. SaaS is receiving substantial attention today from both software providers and users. It is also predicted to has positive future markets by analyst firms. This raises new challenges for SaaS providers managing SaaS, especially in large-scale data centres like Cloud. One of the challenges is providing management of Cloud resources for SaaS which guarantees maintaining SaaS performance while optimising resources use. Extensive research on the resource optimisation of Cloud service has not yet addressed the challenges of managing resources for composite SaaS. This research addresses this gap by focusing on three new problems of composite SaaS: placement, clustering and scalability. The overall aim is to develop efficient and scalable mechanisms that facilitate the delivery of high performance composite SaaS for users while optimising the resources used. All three problems are characterised as highly constrained, large-scaled and complex combinatorial optimisation problems. Therefore, evolutionary algorithms are adopted as the main technique in solving these problems. The first research problem refers to how a composite SaaS is placed onto Cloud servers to optimise its performance while satisfying the SaaS resource and response time constraints. Existing research on this problem often ignores the dependencies between components and considers placement of a homogenous type of component only. A precise problem formulation of composite SaaS placement problem is presented. A classical genetic algorithm and two versions of cooperative co-evolutionary algorithms are designed to now manage the placement of heterogeneous types of SaaS components together with their dependencies, requirements and constraints. Experimental results demonstrate the efficiency and scalability of these new algorithms. In the second problem, SaaS components are assumed to be already running on Cloud virtual machines (VMs). However, due to the environment of a Cloud, the current placement may need to be modified. Existing techniques focused mostly at the infrastructure level instead of the application level. This research addressed the problem at the application level by clustering suitable components to VMs to optimise the resource used and to maintain the SaaS performance. Two versions of grouping genetic algorithms (GGAs) are designed to cater for the structural group of a composite SaaS. The first GGA used a repair-based method while the second used a penalty-based method to handle the problem constraints. The experimental results confirmed that the GGAs always produced a better reconfiguration placement plan compared with a common heuristic for clustering problems. The third research problem deals with the replication or deletion of SaaS instances in coping with the SaaS workload. To determine a scaling plan that can minimise the resource used and maintain the SaaS performance is a critical task. Additionally, the problem consists of constraints and interdependency between components, making solutions even more difficult to find. A hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA) was developed to solve this problem by exploring the problem search space through its genetic operators and fitness function to determine the SaaS scaling plan. The HGA also uses the problem's domain knowledge to ensure that the solutions meet the problem's constraints and achieve its objectives. The experimental results demonstrated that the HGA constantly outperform a heuristic algorithm by achieving a low-cost scaling and placement plan. This research has identified three significant new problems for composite SaaS in Cloud. Various types of evolutionary algorithms have also been developed in addressing the problems where these contribute to the evolutionary computation field. The algorithms provide solutions for efficient resource management of composite SaaS in Cloud that resulted to a low total cost of ownership for users while guaranteeing the SaaS performance.

Rank minimization across appearance and shape for AAM ensemble fitting

Active Appearance Models (AAMs) employ a paradigm of inverting a synthesis model of how an object can vary in terms of shape and appearance. As a result, the ability of AAMs to register an unseen object image is intrinsically linked to two factors. First, how well the synthesis model can reconstruct the object image. Second, the degrees of freedom in the model. Fewer degrees of freedom yield a higher likelihood of good fitting performance. In this paper we look at how these seemingly contrasting factors can complement one another for the problem of AAM fitting of an ensemble of images stemming from a constrained set (e.g. an ensemble of face images of the same person).

ADMRG @ MediaEval 2013 Social Event Detection

This paper elaborates the approach used by the Applied Data Mining Research Group (ADMRG) for the Social Event Detection (SED) Tasks of the 2013 MediaEval Benchmark. We extended the constrained clustering algorithm to apply to the first semi-supervised clustering task, and we compared several classifiers with Latent Dirichlet Allocation as feature selector in the second event classification task. The proposed approach focuses on scalability and efficient memory allocation when applied to a high dimensional data with large clusters. Results of the first task show the effectiveness of the proposed method. Results from task 2 indicate that attention on the imbalance categories distributions is needed.

Controls on mid-Holocene fringing reef growth and termination in a high latitude, estuarine setting, Wellington Point, Southeast Queensland

Several fringing coral reefs in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland, some 300 km south of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), are set in a relatively high latitude, estuarine environment that is considered marginal for coral growth. Previous work indicated that these marginal reefs, as with many fringing reefs of the inner GBR, ceased accreting in the mid-Holocene. This research presents for the first time data from the subsurface profile of the mid-Holocene fossil reef at Wellington Point comprising U/Th dates of in situ and framework corals, and trace element analysis from the age constrained carbonate fragments. Based on trace element proxies the palaeo-water quality during reef accretion was reconstructed. Results demonstrate that the reef initiated more than 7,000 yr BP during the post glacial transgression, and the initiation progressed to the west as sea level rose. In situ micro-atolls indicate that sea level was at least 1 m above present mean sea level by 6,680 years ago. The reef remained in "catch-up" mode, with a seaward sloping upper surface, until it stopped aggrading abruptly at ca 6,000 yr BP; no lateral progradation occurred. Changes in sediment composition encountered in the cores suggest that after the laterite substrate was covered by the reef, most of the sediment was produced by the carbonate factory with minimal terrigenous influence. Rare earth element, Y and Ba proxies indicate that water quality during reef accretion was similar to oceanic waters, considered suitable for coral growth. A slight decline in water quality on the basis of increased Ba in the later stages of growth may be related to increased riverine input and partial closing up of the bay due to either tidal delta progradation, climatic change and/or slight sea level fall. The age data suggest that termination of reef growth coincided with a slight lowering of sea level, activation of ENSO and consequent increase in seasonality, lowering of temperatures and the constrictions to oceanic flushing. At the cessation of reef accretion the environmental conditions in the western Moreton Bay were changing from open marine to estuarine. The living coral community appears to be similar to the fossil community, but without the branching Acropora spp. that were more common in the fossil reef. In this marginal setting coral growth periods do not always correspond to periods of reef accretion due to insufficient coral abundance. Due to several environmental constraints modern coral growth is insufficient for reef growth. Based on these findings Moreton Bay may be unsuitable as a long term coral refuge for most species currently living in the GBR.

Towards an authentically assessed science curriculum

The intentions of the science curriculum are very often constrained by the forms of student learning that are required by, or are currently available within, the system of education. Furthermore, little attention is given to developing new approaches to assessment that would encourage these good intentions. In this chapter, we argue that achieving this broadening of the intentions of science education will require a diversity of assessment techniques and that only a profile of each student’s achievement will capture the range of intended learnings. We explore a variety of assessment modes that match some of these new aspects of science learning and that also provide students with both formative information and a more comprehensive and authentic summative profile of their performances. Our discussion is illustrated with research-based examples of assessment practice in relation to three aspects of science education that are increasingly referred to in curriculum statements as desirable human dimensions of science: context-based science education, decision-making processes and socioscientific issues and integrated science education. We conclude with some notes on what these broader kinds of assessment mean for teachers and the support they would need to include them in their day-to-day practices in the science classrooms if, and when, the mainstream of science teaching and learning takes these curricular intentions seriously.

Rapid scanning of spectrograms for efficient identification of bioacoustic events in big data

Acoustic sensing is a promising approach to scaling faunal biodiversity monitoring. Scaling the analysis of audio collected by acoustic sensors is a big data problem. Standard approaches for dealing with big acoustic data include automated recognition and crowd based analysis. Automatic methods are fast at processing but hard to rigorously design, whilst manual methods are accurate but slow at processing. In particular, manual methods of acoustic data analysis are constrained by a 1:1 time relationship between the data and its analysts. This constraint is the inherent need to listen to the audio data. This paper demonstrates how the efficiency of crowd sourced sound analysis can be increased by an order of magnitude through the visual inspection of audio visualized as spectrograms. Experimental data suggests that an analysis speedup of 12× is obtainable for suitable types of acoustic analysis, given that only spectrograms are shown.

Learning in 140 characters : microblogging for professional learning

This thesis investigated how microblogging, a form of online social networking, was being employed by educators to support their professional learning. The study found that educators who participate in microblogging engage in a wide range of behaviours, with certain behaviours and activities commonly exhibited. An advantage of microblogging as a professional learning tool is its ability to link educators globally to exchange ideas from different perspectives and to share resources and teaching practices. Educators who microblog have access to relevant and timely learning that is not constrained by time or distance and can be tailored to meet their individual needs.

Power profiles of multifocal contact lenses and their interpretation

Purpose Many contact lens (CL) manufacturers produce simultaneous-image lenses in which power varies either smoothly or discontinuously with zonal radius. We present in vitro measurements of some recent CLs and discuss how power profiles might be approximated in terms of nominal distance corrections, near additions, and on-eye visual performance. Methods Fully hydrated soft, simultaneous-image CLs from four manufacturers (Air Optix AQUA, Alcon; PureVision multifocal, Bausch & Lomb; Acuvue OASYS for Presbyopia, Vistakon; Biofinity multifocal- ‘‘D’’ design, Cooper Vision) were measured with a Phase focus Lens Profiler (Phase Focus Ltd., Sheffield,UK) in a wet cell and powerswere corrected to powers in air. All lenses had zero labeled power for distance. Results Sagittal power profiles revealed that the ‘‘low’’ add PureVision and Air Optix lenses exhibit smooth (parabolic) profiles, corresponding to negative spherical aberration. The ‘‘mid’’ and ‘‘high’’ add PureVision and Air Optix lenses have biaspheric designs, leading to different rates of power change for the central and peripheral portions. All OASYS lenses display a series of concentric zones, separated by abrupt discontinuities; individual profiles can be constrained between two parabolically decreasing curves, each giving a valid description of the power changes over alternate annular zones. Biofinity lenses have constant power over the central circular region of radius 1.5 mm, followed by an annular zone where the power increases approximately linearly, the gradient increasing with the add power, and finally an outer zone showing a slow, linear increase in power with a gradient being almost independent of the add power. Conclusions The variation in power across the simultaneous-image lenses produces enhanced depth of focus. The throughfocusnature of the image, which influences the ‘‘best focus’’ (distance correction) and the reading addition, will vary with several factors, including lens centration, the wearer’s pupil diameter, and ocular aberrations, particularly spherical aberration; visual performance with some designs may show greater sensitivity to these factors.

Regulating integrated advertising

This chapter approaches integrated advertising as a practice that is continuous with advertising history, rather than a phenomenon associated with new technologies. Competition for technology-enabled audiences in expanding media and entertainment markets is nonetheless an important factor in the turn to integrated advertising and marketing strategies in recent years. While integrated advertising provides solutions for advertisers, it is problematic for media consumers because it is not always distinguishable from surrounding program content and clearly identifiable as advertising. It creates opportunities for advertisers to fly below the radar of citizen and consumer awareness of commercial and political influences in media content, and for this reason has been constrained by regulation. Media regulators have come to play an important role in striking a balance between public and private interests in commercial media by setting and adjudicating the limits of integrated advertising practices. This chapter looks at how broadcasting regulators have responded to the challenges of regulating integrated advertising in commercial radio in three different territories (United States, United Kingdom and Australia). It draws attention to the ways in which integrated advertising simultaneously drives innovation in media genres and forms, as well as de-regulation of the influence exercised by advertisers in commercial media content.

Evaluation of two-view geometry methods with automatic ground-truth generation

A large number of methods have been published that aim to evaluate various components of multi-view geometry systems. Most of these have focused on the feature extraction, description and matching stages (the visual front end), since geometry computation can be evaluated through simulation. Many data sets are constrained to small scale scenes or planar scenes that are not challenging to new algorithms, or require special equipment. This paper presents a method for automatically generating geometry ground truth and challenging test cases from high spatio-temporal resolution video. The objective of the system is to enable data collection at any physical scale, in any location and in various parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. The data generation process consists of collecting high resolution video, computing accurate sparse 3D reconstruction, video frame culling and down sampling, and test case selection. The evaluation process consists of applying a test 2-view geometry method to every test case and comparing the results to the ground truth. This system facilitates the evaluation of the whole geometry computation process or any part thereof against data compatible with a realistic application. A collection of example data sets and evaluations is included to demonstrate the range of applications of the proposed system.

Emissions trading and the GATS financial services provisions : a case study of the Australian carbon pricing mechanism

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine whether greenhouse gas (GHG) tradeable instruments will be classified as financial products within the scope of the World Trade Organization (WTO) law and to explore the implications of this finding. Design/methodology/approach This purpose is achieved through examination of the units of the Australian Carbon Pricing Mechanism (CPM), namely eligible emissions units. These units are analysed through the lens of the definition of financial products provided in the General Agreement for Trade in Services (the GATS). Findings This paper finds that eligible emissions units will be classified as financial instruments, and therefore the provisions that govern their trade will be regulated by the GATS. Considering this, this paper explores the limitations that are introduced by the Australian legislation on the trade of eligible emissions units. Research limitations/implications This paper is limited in its analysis to the Australian CPM. In order to draw conclusions on the issues raised by this analysis it is necessary to consider the WTO requirements against an operating emissions trading scheme. The Australian CPM presents a contemporary model of an appropriate scheme. Originality/value The findings in this paper are crucial in a GHG constrained society. This is because emissions trading schemes are becoming popular measures for pricing GHG emissions, and for this reason the units that are traded and surrendered for emissions liabilities must be classified appropriately on a global scale. Failing to do this could result in differential treatment that may be contrary to the intentions of important global agreements, such as the WTO covered agreements.

Overview of complex systems in sport

The complex systems approach offers an opportunity to replace the extant pre-dominant mechanistic view on sport-related phenomena. The emphasis on the environment-system relationship, the applications of complexity principles, and the use of nonlinear dynamics mathematical tools propose a deep change in sport science. Coordination dynamics, ecological dynamics, and network approaches have been successfully applied to the study of different sport-related behaviors, from movement patterns that emerge at different scales constrained by specific sport contexts to game dynamics. Sport benefit from the use of such approaches in the understanding of technical, tactical, or physical conditioning aspects which change their meaning and dilute their frontiers. The creation of new learning and training strategies for teams and individual athletes is a main practical consequence. Some challenges for the future are investigating the influence of key control parameters in the nonlinear behavior of athlete-environment systems and the possible relatedness of the dynamics and constraints acting at different spatio-temporal scales in team sports. Modelling sport-related phenomena can make useful contributions to a better understanding of complex systems and vice-versa.