962 resultados para Climatic normals
Resumo:
Despite the longevity, scale and importance of northern Australia's beef industry, recent disruptions to external markets have demonstrated a degree of vulnerability to shocks in the supply chain. Matching the industry's long-evident resilience to climatic variability with resilience to changes in markets and supply chains requires careful planning. One component of this is how investments in infrastructure will need to be planned to facilitate adaptive responses to market changes. This paper provides an outline of a modelling framework that links strategic and operational dynamic models of logistics along the supply chain from the property to the abattoir or port. A novelty of the methodology is that it takes into account the high granularity of individual livestock transport vehicle movements and the ability to scale up to an almost complete view of logistics costs across the entire beef industry of northern Australia. The paper illustrates how the methodology could be used to examine the effects of changes in logistics infrastructure on efficiency and costs using examples from the states of Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland.
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Many aquatic species are linked to environmental drivers such as temperature and salinity through processes such as spawning, recruitment and growth. Information is needed on how fished species may respond to altered environmental drivers under climate change so that adaptive management strategies can be developed. Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) is a highly prized species of the Indo-West Pacific, whose recruitment and growth is driven by river discharge. We developed a monthly age- and length-structured population model for barramundi. Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations were used to explore the population's response to altered river discharges under modelled total licenced water abstraction and projected climate change, derived and downscaled from Global Climate Model A1FI. Mean values of exploitable biomass, annual catch, maximum sustainable yield and spawning stock size were significantly reduced under scenarios where river discharge was reduced; despite including uncertainty. These results suggest that the upstream use of water resources and climate change have potential to significantly reduce downstream barramundi stock sizes and harvests and may undermine the inherent resilience of estuarine-dependent fisheries. © 2012 CSIRO.
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Recurring water stresses are a major risk factor for rainfed maize cropping across the highly diverse agro-ecological environments of Queensland (Qld) and northern New South Wales (NNSW). Enhanced understanding of such agro-ecological diversity is necessary to more consistently sample target production environments for testing and targeting release of improved germplasm, and to improve the efficiency of the maize pre-breeding and breeding programs of Qld and New South Wales. Here, we used the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) – a well validated maize crop model to characterize the key distinctive water stress patterns and risk to production across the main maize growing regions of Qld and NNSW located between 15.8° and 31.5°S, and 144.5° and 151.8°E. APSIM was configured to simulate daily water supply demand ratios (SDRs) around anthesis as an indicator of the degree of water stress, and the final grain yield. Simulations were performed using daily climatic records during the period between 1890 and 2010 for 32 sites-soils in the target production regions. The runs were made assuming adequate nitrogen supply for mid-season maize hybrid Pioneer 3153. Hierarchical complete linkage analyses of the simulated yield resulted in five major clusters showing distinct probability distribution of the expected yields and geographic patterns. The drought stress patterns and their frequencies using SDRs were quantified using multivariate statistical methods. The identified stress patterns included no stress, mid-season (flowering) stress, and three terminal stresses differing in terms of severity. The combined frequency of flowering and terminal stresses was highest (82.9%), mainly in sites-soils combinations in the west of Qld and NNSW. Yield variability across the different sites-soils was significantly related to the variability in frequencies of water stresses. Frequencies of water stresses within each yield cluster tended to be similar, but different across clusters. Sites-soils falling within each yield cluster therefore could be treated as distinct maize production environments for testing and targeting newly developed maize cultivars and hybrids for adaptation to water stress patterns most common to those environments.
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My work describes two sectors of the human bacterial environment: 1. The sources of exposure to infectious non-tuberculous mycobacteria. 2. Bacteria in dust, reflecting the airborne bacterial exposure in environments protecting from or predisposing to allergic disorders. Non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) transmit to humans and animals from the environment. Infection by NTM in Finland has increased during the past decade beyond that by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Among the farm animals, porcine mycobacteriosis is the predominant NTM disease in Finland. Symptoms of mycobacteriosis are found in 0.34 % of slaughtered pigs. Soil and drinking water are suspected as sources for humans and bedding materials for pigs. To achieve quantitative data on the sources of human and porcine NTM exposure, methods for quantitation of environmental NTM are needed. We developed a quantitative real-time PCR method, utilizing primers targeted at the 16S rRNA gene of the genus of Mycobacterium. With this method, I found in Finnish sphagnum peat, sandy soils and mud high contents of mycobacterial DNA, 106 to 107 genome equivalents per gram. A similar result was obtained by a method based on the Mycobacterium-specific hybridization of 16S rRNA. Since rRNA is found mainly in live cells, this result shows that the DNA detected by qPCR mainly represented live mycobacteria. Next, I investigated the occurrence of environmental mycobacteria in the bedding materials obtained from 5 pig farms with high prevalence (>4 %) of mycobacteriosis. When I used for quantification the same qPCR methods as for the soils, I found that piggery samples contained non-mycobacterial DNA that was amplified in spite of several mismatches with the primers. I therefore improved the qPCR assay by designing Mycobacterium-specific detection probes. Using the probe qPCR assay, I found 105 to 107 genome equivalents of mycobacterial DNA in unused bedding materials and up to 1000 fold more in the bedding collected after use in the piggery. This result shows that there was a source of mycobacteria in the bedding materials purchased by the piggery and that mycobacteria increased in the bedding materials during use in the piggery. Allergic diseases have reached epidemic proportions in urbanized countries. At the same time, childhood in rural environment or simple living conditions appears to protect against allergic disorders. Exposure to immunoreactive microbial components in rural environments seems to prevent allergies. I searched for differences in the bacterial communities of two indoor dusts, an urban house dust shown to possess immunoreactivity of the TH2-type and a farm barn dust with TH1-activity. The immunoreactivities of the dusts were revealed by my collaborators, in vitro in human dendritic cells and in vivo in mouse. The dusts accumulated >10 years in the respiratory zone (>1.5 m above floor), thus reflecting the long-term content of airborne bacteria at the two sites. I investigated these dusts by cloning and sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA genes from dust contained DNA. From the TH2-active urban house dust, I isolated 139 16S rRNA gene clones. The most prevalent genera among the clones were Corynebacterium (5 species, 34 clones), Streptococcus (8 species, 33 clones), Staphylococcus (5 species, 9 clones) and Finegoldia (1 species, 9 clones). Almost all of these species are known as colonizers of the human skin and oral cavity. Species of Corynebacterium and Streptococcus have been reported to contain anti-inflammatory lipoarabinomannans and immunmoreactive beta-glucans respectively. Streptococcus mitis, found in the urban house dust is known as an inducer of TH2 polarized immunity, characteristic of allergic disorders. I isolated 152 DNA clones from the TH1-active farm barn dust and found species quite different from those found from the urban house dust. Among others, I found DNA clones representing Bacillus licheniformis, Acinetobacter lwoffii and Lactobacillus each of which was recently reported to possess anti-allergy immunoreactivity. Moreover, the farm barn dust contained dramatically higher bacterial diversity than the urban house dust. Exposure to this dust thus stimulated the human dendritic cells by multiple microbial components. Such stimulation was reported to promote TH1 immunity. The biodiversity in dust may thus be connected to its immunoreactivity. Furthermore, the bacterial biomass in the farm barn dust consisted of live intact bacteria mainly. In the urban house dust only ~1 % of the biomass appeared as intact bacteria, as judged by microscoping. Fragmented microbes may possess bioactivity different from that of intact cells. This was recently shown for moulds. If this is also valid for bacteria, the different immunoreactivities of the two dusts may be explained by the intactness of dustborne bacteria. Based on these results, we offer three factors potentially contributing to the polarized immunoreactivities of the two dusts: (i) the species-composition, (ii) the biodiversity and (iii) the intactness of the dustborne bacterial biomass. The risk of childhood atopic diseases is 4-fold lower in the Russian compared with the Finnish Karelia. This difference across the country border is not explainable by different geo-climatic factors or genetic susceptibilities of the two populations. Instead, the explanation must be lifestyle-related. It has already been reported that the microbiological quality of drinking water differs on the two sides of the borders. In collaboration with allergists, I investigated dusts collected from homes in the Russian Karelia and in the Finnish Karelia. I found that bacterial 16S rRNA genes cloned from the Russian Karelian dusts (10 homes, 234 clones) predominantly represented Gram-positive taxa (the phyla Actinobacteria and Firmicutes, 67%). The Russian Karelian dusts contained nine-fold more of muramic acid (60 to 70 ng mg-1) than the Finnish Karelian dusts (3 to 11 ng mg-1). Among the DNA clones isolated from the Finnish side (n=231), Gram-negative taxa (40%) outnumbered the Gram-positives (34%). Out of the 465 DNA clones isolated from the Karelian dusts, 242 were assigned to cultured validly described bacterial species. In Russian Karelia, animal-associated species e.g. Staphylococcus and Macrococcus were numerous (27 clones, 14 unique species). This finding may connect to the difference in the prevalence of allergy, as childhood contacts with pets and farm animals have been connected with low allergy risk. Plant-associated bacteria and plant-borne 16S rRNA genes (chloroplast) were frequent among the DNA clones isolated from the Finnish Karelia, indicating components originating from plants. In conclusion, my work revealed three major differences between the bacterial communtites in the Russian and in the Finnish Karelian homes: (i) the high prevalence of Gram-positive bacteria on the Russian side and of Gram-negative bacteria on the Finnish side and (ii) the rich presence of animal-associated bacteria on the Russian side whereas (iii) plant-associated bacteria prevailed on the Finnish side. One or several of these factors may connect to the differences in the prevalence of allergy.
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Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.
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A suite of co-occurring eriophyid mite species are significant pests in subtropical Australia, causing severe discolouration, blistering, necrosis and leaf loss to one of the region's most important hardwood species, Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata (F. Muell.) K. D. Hill & L. A. S. Johnson (Myrtaceae). In this study, we examined mite population dynamics and leaf damage over a 1-year period in a commercial plantation of C. citriodora subsp. variegata. Our aims were to link the incidence and severity of mite damage, and mite numbers, to leaf physical traits (moisture content and specific leaf weight (SLW)); to identify any seasonal changes in leaf surface occupancy (upper vs. lower lamina); and host tree canopy strata (upper, mid or lower canopy). We compared population trends with site rainfall, temperature and humidity. We also examined physical and anatomical changes in leaf tissue in response to mite infestation to characterize the plants' physiological reaction to feeding, and how this might affect photosynthesis. Our main findings included positive correlations with leaf moisture content and mite numbers and with mite numbers and damage severity. Wet and dry leaf mass and SLW were greater for damaged tissue than undamaged tissue. Mites were distributed equally throughout the canopy and on both leaf surfaces. No relationships with climatic factors were found. Damage symptoms occurred equally and were exactly mirrored on both leaf surfaces. Mite infestation increased the overall epidermal thickness and the number and size of epidermal cells and was also associated with a rapid loss of chloroplasts from mesophyll cells beneath damage sites. The integrity of the stomatal complex was severely compromised in damaged tissues. These histological changes suggest that damage by these mites will negatively impact the photosynthetic efficiency of susceptible plantation species.
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Abstract In weed biocontrol, similarity of abiotic factors between the native and introduced range of a biocontrol agent is critical to its establishment and effectiveness. This is particularly the case for weeds that have a wide geographical distribution in the native range. For such weeds, the choice of a specialist insect that has narrow tolerance limits to important abiotic factors can diminish its ability to be an effective biocontrol agent. The membracid Aconophora compressa was introduced in Australia from Mexico for biocontrol of Lantana camara, a plant with a wide climatic tolerance. In this study we investigated the effect of constant and alternating temperatures on A. compressa survival. Longevity of adults and nymphs declined with increasing temperatures, and at 39°C individuals survived for less than a day. At lower temperatures, nymphs survived longer than adults. Survival at alternating temperatures was longer than at constant temperatures, but the general trend of lower survival at higher temperatures remained. Spatially and temporally, the climatic tolerance of A. compressa appears to be a subset of that of lantana, thereby limiting its potential impact.
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Remote detection of management-related trend in the presence of inter-annual climatic variability in the rangelands is difficult. Minimally disturbed reference areas provide a useful guide, but suitable benchmarks are usually difficult to identify. We describe a method that uses a unique conceptual framework to identify reference areas from multitemporal sequences of ground cover derived from Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. The method does not require ground-based reference sites nor GIS layers about management. We calculate a minimum ground cover image across all years to identify locations of most persistent ground cover in years of lowest rainfall. We then use a moving window approach to calculate the difference between the window's central pixel and its surrounding reference pixels. This difference estimates ground-cover change between successive below-average rainfall years, which provides a seasonally interpreted measure of management effects. We examine the approach's sensitivity to window size and to cover-index percentiles used to define persistence. The method successfully detected management-related change in ground cover in Queensland tropical savanna woodlands in two case studies: (1) a grazing trial where heavy stocking resulted in substantial decline in ground cover in small paddocks, and (2) commercial paddocks where wet-season spelling (destocking) resulted in increased ground cover. At a larger scale, there was broad agreement between our analysis of ground-cover change and ground-based land condition change for commercial beef properties with different a priori ratings of initial condition, but there was also some disagreement where changing condition reflected pasture composition rather than ground cover. We conclude that the method is suitably robust to analyse grazing effects on ground cover across the 1.3 x 10(6) km(2) of Queensland's rangelands. Crown Copyright (c) 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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The quantification and characterisation of soil phosphorus (P) is of agricultural and environmental importance and different extraction methods are widely used to asses the bioavailability of P and to characterize soil P reserves. However, the large variety of extractants, pre-treatments and sample preparation procedures complicate the comparison of published results. In order to improve our understanding of the behaviour and cycling of P in soil, it is crucial to know the scientific relevance of the methods used for various purposes. The knowledge of the factors affecting the analytical outcome is a prerequisite for justified interpretation of the results. The aim of this thesis was to study the effects of sample preparation procedures on soil P and to determine the dependence of the recovered P pool on the chemical nature of extractants. Sampling is a critical step in soil testing and sampling strategy is dependent on the land-use history and the purpose of sampling. This study revealed that pre-treatments changed soil properties and air-drying was found to affect soil P, particularly extractable organic P, by disrupting organic matter. This was evidenced by an increase in the water-extractable small-sized (<0.2 µm) P that, at least partly, took place at the expense of the large-sized (>0.2 µm) P. However, freezing induced only insignificant changes and thus, freezing can be taken to be a suitable method for storing soils from the boreal zone that naturally undergo periodic freezing. The results demonstrated that chemical nature of the extractant affects its sensitivity to detect changes in soil P solubility. Buffered extractants obscured the alterations in P solubility induced by pH changes; however, water extraction, though sensitive to physicochemical changes, can be used to reveal short term changes in soil P solubility. As for the organic P, the analysis was found to be sensitive to the sample preparation procedures: filtering may leave a large proportion of extractable organic P undetected, whereas the outcome of centrifugation was found to be affected by the ionic strength of the extractant. Widely used sequential fractionation procedures proved to be able to detect land-use -derived differences in the distribution of P among fractions of different solubilities. However, interpretation of the results from extraction experiments requires better understanding of the biogeochemical function of the recovered P fraction in the P cycle in differently managed soils under dissimilar climatic conditions.
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As atmospheric levels of CO2 increase, reef-building corals are under greater stress from both increased sea surface temperatures and declining sea water pH. To date, most studies have focused on either coral bleaching due to warming oceans or declining calcification due to decreasing oceanic carbonate ion concentrations. Here, through the use of physiology measurements and cDNA microarrays, we show that changes in pH and ocean chemistry consistent with two scenarios put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) drive major changes in gene expression, respiration, photosynthesis and symbiosis of the coral, Acropora millepora, before affects on biomineralisation are apparent at the phenotype level. Under high CO2 conditions corals at the phenotype level lost over half their Symbiodinium populations, and had a decrease in both photosynthesis and respiration. Changes in gene expression were consistent with metabolic suppression, an increase in oxidative stress, apoptosis and symbiont loss. Other expression patterns demonstrate upregulation of membrane transporters, as well as the regulation of genes involved in membrane cytoskeletal interactions and cytoskeletal remodeling. These widespread changes in gene expression emphasize the need to expand future studies of ocean acidification to include a wider spectrum of cellular processes, many of which may occur before impacts on calcification.
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A suite of co-occurring eriophyid mite species are significant pests in subtropical Australia, causing severe discolouration, blistering, necrosis and leaf loss to one of the region's most important hardwood species, Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata (F. Muell.) K. D. Hill & L. A. S. Johnson (Myrtaceae). In this study, we examined mite population dynamics and leaf damage over a 1-year period in a commercial plantation of C. citriodora subsp. variegata. Our aims were to link the incidence and severity of mite damage, and mite numbers, to leaf physical traits (moisture content and specific leaf weight (SLW)); to identify any seasonal changes in leaf surface occupancy (upper vs. lower lamina); and host tree canopy strata (upper, mid or lower canopy). We compared population trends with site rainfall, temperature and humidity. We also examined physical and anatomical changes in leaf tissue in response to mite infestation to characterize the plants' physiological reaction to feeding, and how this might affect photosynthesis. Our main findings included positive correlations with leaf moisture content and mite numbers and with mite numbers and damage severity. Wet and dry leaf mass and SLW were greater for damaged tissue than undamaged tissue. Mites were distributed equally throughout the canopy and on both leaf surfaces. No relationships with climatic factors were found. Damage symptoms occurred equally and were exactly mirrored on both leaf surfaces. Mite infestation increased the overall epidermal thickness and the number and size of epidermal cells and was also associated with a rapid loss of chloroplasts from mesophyll cells beneath damage sites. The integrity of the stomatal complex was severely compromised in damaged tissues. These histological changes suggest that damage by these mites will negatively impact the photosynthetic efficiency of susceptible plantation species.
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Emerging zoonoses threaten global health, yet the processes by which they emerge are complex and poorly understood. Nipah virus (NiV) is an important threat owing to its broad host and geographical range, high case fatality, potential for human-to-human transmission and lack of effective prevention or therapies. Here, we investigate the origin of the first identified outbreak of NiV encephalitis in Malaysia and Singapore. We analyse data on livestock production from the index site (a commercial pig farm in Malaysia) prior to and during the outbreak, on Malaysian agricultural production, and from surveys of NiV's wildlife reservoir (flying foxes). Our analyses suggest that repeated introduction of NiV from wildlife changed infection dynamics in pigs. Initial viral introduction produced an explosive epizootic that drove itself to extinction but primed the population for enzootic persistence upon reintroduction of the virus. The resultant within-farm persistence permitted regional spread and increased the number of human infections. This study refutes an earlier hypothesis that anomalous El Nino Southern Oscillation-related climatic conditions drove emergence and suggests that priming for persistence drove the emergence of a novel zoonotic pathogen. Thus, we provide empirical evidence for a causative mechanism previously proposed as a precursor to widespread infection with H5N1 avian influenza and other emerging pathogens.
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There is an increasing need to understand what makes vegetation at some locations more sensitive to climate change than others. For savanna rangelands, this requires building knowledge of how forage production in different land types will respond to climate change, and identifying how location-specific land type characteristics, climate and land management control the magnitude and direction of its responses to change. Here, a simulation analysis is used to explore how forage production in 14 land types of the north-eastern Australian rangelands responds to three climate change scenarios of +3A degrees C, +17% rainfall; +2A degrees C, -7% rainfall; and +3A degrees C, -46% rainfall. Our results demonstrate that the controls on forage production responses are complex, with functional characteristics of land types interacting to determine the magnitude and direction of change. Forage production may increase by up to 60% or decrease by up to 90% in response to the extreme scenarios of change. The magnitude of these responses is dependent on whether forage production is water or nitrogen (N) limited, and how climate changes influence these limiting conditions. Forage production responds most to changes in temperature and moisture availability in land types that are water-limited, and shows the least amount of change when growth is restricted by N availability. The fertilisation effects of doubled atmospheric CO2 were found to offset declines in forage production under 2A degrees C warming and a 7% reduction in rainfall. However, rising tree densities and declining land condition are shown to reduce potential opportunities from increases in forage production and raise the sensitivity of pastures to climate-induced water stress. Knowledge of these interactions can be applied in engaging with stakeholders to identify adaptation options.
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This study aimed to unravel the effects of climate, topography, soil, and grazing management on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the grazing lands of north-eastern Australia. We sampled for SOC stocks at 98 sites from 18 grazing properties across Queensland, Australia. These samples covered four nominal grazing management classes (Continuous, Rotational, Cell, and Exclosure), eight broad soil types, and a strong tropical to subtropical climatic gradient. Temperature and vapour-pressure deficit explained >80% of the variability of SOC stocks at cumulative equivalent mineral masses nominally representing 0-0.1 and 0-0.3m depths. Once detrended of climatic effects, SOC stocks were strongly influenced by total standing dry matter, soil type, and the dominant grass species. At 0-0.3m depth only, there was a weak negative association between stocking rate and climate-detrended SOC stocks, and Cell grazing was associated with smaller SOC stocks than Continuous grazing and Exclosure. In future, collection of quantitative information on stocking intensity, frequency, and duration may help to improve understanding of the effect of grazing management on SOC stocks. Further exploration of the links between grazing management and above- and below-ground biomass, perhaps inferred through remote sensing and/or simulation modelling, may assist large-area mapping of SOC stocks in northern Australia. © CSIRO 2013.
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Ambient ultrafine particle number concentrations (PNC) have inhomogeneous spatio-temporal distributions and depend on a number of different urban factors, including background conditions and distant sources. This paper quantitatively compares exposure to ambient ultrafine particles at urban schools in two cities in developed countries, with high insolation climatic conditions, namely Brisbane (Australia) and Barcelona (Spain). The analysis used comprehensive indoor and outdoor air quality measurements at 25 schools in Brisbane and 39 schools in Barcelona. PNC modes were analysed with respect to ambient temperature, land use and urban characteristics, combined with the measured elemental carbon concentrations, NOx (Brisbane) and NO2 (Barcelona). The trends and modes of the quantified weekday average daily cycles of ambient PNC exhibited significant differences between the two cities. PNC increases were observed during traffic rush hours in both cases. However, the mid-day peak was dominant in Brisbane schools and had the highest contribution to total PNC for both indoors and outdoors. In Barcelona, the contribution from traffic was highest for ambient PNC, while the mid-day peak had a slightly higher contribution for indoor concentrations. Analysis of the relationships between PNC and land use characteristics in Barcelona schools showed a moderate correlation with the percentage of road network area and an anti-correlation with the percentage of green area. No statistically significant correlations were found for Brisbane. Overall, despite many similarities between the two cities, school-based exposure patterns were different. The main source of ambient PNC at schools was shown to be traffic in Barcelona and mid-day new particle formation in Brisbane. The mid-day PNC peak in Brisbane could have been driven by the combined effect of background and meteorological conditions, as well as other local/distant sources. The results have implications for urban development, especially in terms of air quality mitigation and management at schools.