Riding the South Sea bubble

This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare's Bank, a fledgling West End London banker, knew that a bubble was in progress and nonetheless invested in the stock; it was profitable to "ride the bubble." Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by institutional factors such as restrictions on short sales or agency problems. Instead, this study demonstrates that predictable investor sentiment can prevent attacks on a bubble; rational investors may only attack when some coordinating event promotes joint action.

Organisational values as "attractors of chaos": An emerging cultural change to manage organisational complexity

Business organisations are excellent representations of what in physics and mathematics are designated "chaotic" systems. Because a culture of innovation will be vital for organisational survival in the 21st century, the present paper proposes that viewing organisations in terms of "complexity theory" may assist leaders in fine-tuning managerial philosophies that provide orderly management emphasizing stability within a culture of organised chaos, for it is on the "boundary of chaos" that the greatest creativity occurs. It is argued that 21st century companies, as chaotic social systems, will no longer be effectively managed by rigid objectives (MBO) nor by instructions (MBI). Their capacity for self-organisation will be derived essentially from how their members accept a shared set of values or principles for action (MBV). Complexity theory deals with systems that show complex structures in time or space, often hiding simple deterministic rules. This theory holds that once these rules are found, it is possible to make effective predictions and even to control the apparent complexity. The state of chaos that self-organises, thanks to the appearance of the "strange attractor", is the ideal basis for creativity and innovation in the company. In this self-organised state of chaos, members are not confined to narrow roles, and gradually develop their capacity for differentiation and relationships, growing continuously toward their maximum potential contribution to the efficiency of the organisation. In this way, values act as organisers or "attractors" of disorder, which in the theory of chaos are equations represented by unusually regular geometric configurations that predict the long-term behaviour of complex systems. In business organisations (as in all kinds of social systems) the starting principles end up as the final principles in the long term. An attractor is a model representation of the behavioral results of a system. The attractor is not a force of attraction or a goal-oriented presence in the system; it simply depicts where the system is headed based on its rules of motion. Thus, in a culture that cultivates or shares values of autonomy, responsibility, independence, innovation, creativity, and proaction, the risk of short-term chaos is mitigated by an overall long-term sense of direction. A more suitable approach to manage the internal and external complexities that organisations are currently confronting is to alter their dominant culture under the principles of MBV.

A century of global equity market correlations

In this paper, we use a unique long-run dataset of regulatory constraints on capital account openness to explain stock market correlations. Since stock returns themselves are highly volatile, any examination of what drives correlations needs to focus on long runs of data. This is particularly true since some of the short-term changes in co-movements appear to reverse themselves (Delroy Hunter 2005). We argue that changes in the co-movement of indices have not been random. Rather, they are mainly driven by greater freedom to move funds from one country to another. In related work, Geert Bekaert and Campbell Harvey (2000) show that equity correlations increase after liberalization of capital markets, using a number of case studies from emerging countries. We examine this pattern systematically for the last century, and find it to be most pronounced in the recent past. We compare the importance of capital account openness with one main alternative explanation, the growing synchronization of economic fundamentals. We conclude that greater openness has been the single most important cause of growing correlations during the last quarter of a century, though increasingly correlated economic fundamentals also matter. In the conclusion, we offer some thoughts on why the effects of greater openness appear to be so much stronger today than they were during the last era of globalization before 1914.

Twitch and M-wave potentiation induced by intermittent maximal voluntary quadriceps contractions: Differences between direct quadriceps and femoral nerve stimulation.

Introduction: To investigate differences in twitch and M-wave potentiation in the quadriceps femoris when electrical stimulation is applied over the quadriceps muscle belly versus the femoral nerve trunk. Methods: M-waves and mechanical twitches were evoked using direct quadriceps muscle and femoral nerve stimulation between 48 successive isometric maximal voluntary contractions (MVC) from 10 young, healthy subjects. Potentiation was investigated by analyzing the changes in M-wave amplitude recorded from the vastus medialis (VM) and vastus lateralis (VL) muscles and in quadriceps peak twitch force. Results: Potentiation of twitch, VM M-wave, and VL M-wave were greater for femoral nerve than for direct quadriceps stimulation (P<0.05). Despite a 50% decrease in MVC force, the amplitude of the M-waves increased significantly during exercise. Conclusions: In addition to enhanced electrogenic Na(+) -K(+) pumping, other factors (such as synchronization in activation of muscle fibers and muscle architectural properties) might significantly influence the magnitude of M-wave enlargement. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Early disturbances of gamma band dynamics in mild cognitive impairment.

Recent studies have indicated that gamma band oscillations participate in the temporal binding needed for the synchronization of cortical networks involved in short-term memory and attentional processes. To date, no study has explored the temporal dynamics of gamma band in the early stages of dementia. At baseline, gamma band analysis was performed in 29 cases with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) during the n-back task. Based on phase diagrams, multiple linear regression models were built to explore the relationship between the cognitive status and gamma oscillation changes over time. Individual measures of phase diagram complexity were made using fractal dimension values. After 1 year, all cases were assessed neuropsychologically using the same battery. A total of 16 MCI patients showed progressive cognitive decline (PMCI) and 13 remained stable (SMCI). When adjusted for gamma values at lag -2, and -3 ms, PMCI cases displayed significantly lower average changes in gamma values than SMCI cases both in detection and 2-back tasks. Gamma fractal dimension of PMCI cases displayed significantly higher gamma fractal dimension values compared to SMCI cases. This variable explained 11.8% of the cognitive variability in this series. Our data indicate that the progression of cognitive decline in MCI is associated with early deficits in temporal binding that occur during the activation of selective attention processes.

Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe

We study the effects that the Maastricht treaty, the creation of the ECB, andthe Euro changeover had on the dynamics of European business cycles using a panelVAR and data from ten European countries - seven from the Euro area and threeoutside of it. There are changes in the features of European business cycles and in thetransmission of shocks. They precede the three events of interest and are more linkedto a general process of European convergence and synchronization.

Desenvolupament d'eines informàtiques per a residències geriàtriques

L’envelliment de la població demana cada cop més centres especialitzats en geriatria en els països desenvolupats. Aquests mateixos països pateixen recentment una falta de personal qualificat en infermeria. Aquests dos factors es combinen i posen en evidència la necessitat de desenvolupar eines informàtiques que modernitzin les residències geriàtriques. El projecte que s’ha desenvolupat consisteix en una aplicació de gestió d’una residència geriàtrica amb una base de dades centralitzada en un PC des de la qual s’hi pot accedir a través d’una aplicació feta per PDA. La seva funció principal és poder agilitzar tota la repartició de medicació dins la residència geriàtrica, gestionant des de les pautes de medicació corresponents a cada resident, fins a un control d’stock. Consta, per tant, d’una aplicació per PC, programada amb Visual Basic i utilitzant com a base de dades Microsoft Access, i d’una aplicació per PDA, programada amb Embedded Visual Basic i utilitzant la mateixa base de dades creada per l’aplicació per PC. L’aplicació de PC proporcionarà als usuaris una gestió ràpida i còmode i, alhora, rapidesa i estalvi de treball si es vol fer un determinat manteniment a través de l’aplicació de PDA. En el manteniment de l’aplicació, però, no s’hi inclou el manteniment dels usuaris tot i haver un control d’aquests. En aquest projecte s’estudia com es desenvolupa una aplicació per PDA i com comparteix una base de dades amb una altra aplicació a través del sistema de sincronització PC↔PDA anomenat ActiveSync.

Attenuated asymmetry of functional connectivity in schizophrenia: a high-resolution EEG study.

The interhemispheric asymmetries that originate from connectivity-related structuring of the cortex are compromised in schizophrenia (SZ). Under the assumption that such abnormalities affect functional connectivity, we analyzed its correlate-EEG synchronization-in SZ patients and matched controls. We applied multivariate synchronization measures based on Laplacian EEG and tuned to various spatial scales. Compared to the controls who had rightward asymmetry at a local level (EEG power), rightward anterior and leftward posterior asymmetries at an intraregional level (1st and 2nd order S-estimator), and rightward global asymmetry (hemispheric S-estimator), SZ patients showed generally attenuated asymmetry, the effect being strongest for intraregional synchronization in the alpha and beta bands. The abnormalities of asymmetry increased with the duration of the disease and correlated with the negative symptoms. We discuss the tentative links between these findings and gross anatomical asymmetries, including the cerebral torque and gyrification pattern, in normal subjects and SZ patients.

The Smiling Project: development of a new program for gait and balance training

Introduction: The SMILING project, a multicentric project fundedby the European Union, aims to develop a new gait and balance trainingprogram to prevent falls in older persons. The program includes the"SMILING shoe", an innovative device that generates mechanical perturbationwhile walking by changing the soles' inclination. Induced perturbationschallenge subjects' balance and force them to react to avoidfalls. By training specifically the complex motor reactions used to maintainbalance when walking on irregular ground, the program will improvesubjects' ability to react in situation of unsteadiness and reduce theirrisk of falling. Methods: The program will be evaluated in a multicentric,cross-over randomized controlled trial. Overall, 112 subjects (aged≥65 years, ≥1 falls, POMA score 22-26/28) will be enrolled. Subjectswill be randomised in 2 groups: group A begin the training with active"SMILING shoes", group B with inactive dummy shoes. After 4 weeksof training, group A and B will exchange the shoes. Supervised trainingsessions (30 minutes twice a week for 8 weeks) include walkingtasks of progressive difficulties.To avoid a learning effect, "SMILINGshoes" perturbations will be generated in a non-linear and chaotic way.Gait performance, fear of falling, and acceptability of the program willbe assessed. Conclusion: The SMILING program is an innovative interventionfor falls prevention in older persons based on gait and balancetraining using chaotic perturbations. Because of the easy use of the"SMILING shoes", this program could be used in various settings, suchas geriatric clinics or at home.

EEG alpha activity reflects motor preparation rather than the mode of action selection

Alpha-band activity (8-13 Hz) is not only suppressed by sensory stimulation and movements, but also modulated by attention, working memory and mental tasks, and could be sensitive to higher motor control functions. The aim of the present study was to examine alpha oscillatory activity during the preparation of simple left or right finger movements, contrasting the external and internal mode of action selection. Three preparation conditions were examined using a precueing paradigm with S1 as the preparatory and S2 as the imperative cue: Full, laterality instructed by S1; Free, laterality freely selected and None, laterality instructed by S2. Time-frequency (TF) analysis was performed in the alpha frequency range during the S1-S2 interval, and alpha motor-related amplitude asymmetries (MRAA) were also calculated. The significant MRAA during the Full and Free conditions indicated effective external and internal motor response preparation. In the absence of specific motor preparation (None), a posterior alpha event-related desynchronization (ERD) dominated, reflecting the main engagement of attentional resources. In Full and Free motor preparation, posterior alpha ERD was accompanied by a midparietal alpha event-related synchronization (ERS), suggesting a concomitant inhibition of task-irrelevant visual activity. In both Full and Free motor preparation, analysis of alpha power according to MRAA amplitude revealed two types of functional activation patterns: (1) a motor alpha pattern, with predominantly midparietal alpha ERS and large MRAA corresponding to lateralized motor activation/visual inhibition and (2) an attentional alpha pattern, with dominating right posterior alpha ERD and small MRAA reflecting visuospatial attention. The present results suggest that alpha oscillatory patterns do not resolve the selection mode of action, but rather distinguish separate functional strategies of motor preparation.

BPSK to ASK signal conversion using injection-locked oscillators-part II: experiment

This paper demonstrates the feasibility of a new circuit for the conversion of binary phase-shift keying signals into amplitude-shift keying signals. In its simplest form, the converter circuit is composed by a power divider, a couple of second harmonic injection-locked oscillators, and a power combiner. The operation of the converter circuit relies on the frequency synchronization of both oscillators and the generation of an interference pattern by combining their outputs, which reproduces the original phase modulation. Two prototypes of the converter have been implemented. The first one is a hybrid version working in the 400-530-MHz frequency range. The second one has been implemented using multichip-module technology, and is intended to work in the 1.8-2.2-GHz frequency range.

Glucose is arrhythmogenic in the anoxic-reoxygenated embryonic chick heart.

Unlike in adult heart, embryonic myocardium works at low PO2 and depends preferentially on glucose. Therefore, activity of the embryonic heart during anoxia and reoxygenation should be particularly affected by changes in glucose availability. Hearts excised from 4-d-old chick embryos were submitted in vitro to strictly controlled anoxia-reoxygenation transitions at glucose concentrations varying from 0 to 20 mmol/L. Spontaneous and regular heart contractions were detected optically as movements of the ventricle wall and instantaneous heart rate, amplitude of contraction, and velocities of contraction and relaxation were determined. Anoxia induced transient tachycardia and rapidly depressed contractile activity, whereas reoxygenation provoked a temporary and complete cardioplegia (oxygen paradox). In the presence of glucose, atrial rhythm became irregular during anoxia and chaotic-periodic during reoxygenation. The incidence of these arrhythmias depended on duration of anoxia, and no ventricular ectopic beats were observed. Removal of glucose or blockade of glycolysis suppressed arrhythmias. These results show similarities but also differences with respect to the adult heart. Indeed, glucose 1) delayed and anoxic contractile failure, shortened the reoxygenation-induced cardiac arrest, and improved the recovery of contractile activity; 2) attenuated stunning at 20 mmol/L but worsened it at 8 mmol/L; and 3) paradoxically, was arrhythmogenic during anoxia and reoxygenation, especially when present at the physiologic concentration of 8 mmol/L. The last named phenomenon seems to be characteristic of the young embryonic heart, and our findings underscore that fluctuations of glycolytic activity may play a role in the reactivity of the embryonic myocardium to anoxiareoxygenation transitions.

Synchronizability of EEG-Based Functional Networks in Early Alzheimer's Disease.

Recently graph theory and complex networks have been widely used as a mean to model functionality of the brain. Among different neuroimaging techniques available for constructing the brain functional networks, electroencephalography (EEG) with its high temporal resolution is a useful instrument of the analysis of functional interdependencies between different brain regions. Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease, which leads to substantial cognitive decline, and eventually, dementia in aged people. To achieve a deeper insight into the behavior of functional cerebral networks in AD, here we study their synchronizability in 17 newly diagnosed AD patients compared to 17 healthy control subjects at no-task, eyes-closed condition. The cross-correlation of artifact-free EEGs was used to construct brain functional networks. The extracted networks were then tested for their synchronization properties by calculating the eigenratio of the Laplacian matrix of the connection graph, i.e., the largest eigenvalue divided by the second smallest one. In AD patients, we found an increase in the eigenratio, i.e., a decrease in the synchronizability of brain networks across delta, alpha, beta, and gamma EEG frequencies within the wide range of network costs. The finding indicates the destruction of functional brain networks in early AD.

Dissipation in quasistatically driven disordered systems

This work presents an analysis of hysteresis and dissipation in quasistatically driven disordered systems. The study is based on the random field Ising model with fluctuationless dynamics. It enables us to sort out the fraction of the energy input by the driving field stored in the system and the fraction dissipated in every step of the transformation. The dissipation is directly related to the occurrence of avalanches, and does not scale with the size of Barkhausen magnetization jumps. In addition, the change in magnetic field between avalanches provides a measure of the energy barriers between consecutive metastable states

Event-related potentials and changes of brain rhythm oscillations during working memory activation in patients with first-episode psychosis.

Background: Earlier contributions have documented significant changes in sensory, attention-related endogenous event-related potential (ERP) components and θ band oscillatory responses during working memory activation in patients with schizophrenia. In patients with first-episode psychosis, such studies are still scarce and mostly focused on auditory sensory processing. The present study aimed to explore whether subtle deficits of cortical activation are present in these patients before the decline of working memory performance. Methods: We assessed exogenous and endogenous ERPs and frontal θ event-related synchronization (ERS) in patients with first-episode psychosis and healthy controls who successfully performed an adapted 2-back working memory task, including 2 visual n-backworking memory tasks as well as oddball detection and passive fixation tasks. Results: We included 15 patients with first-episode psychosis and 18 controls in this study. Compared with controls, patients with first-episode psychosis displayed increased latencies of early visual ERPs and phasic θ ERS culmination peak in all conditions. However, they also showed a rapid recruitment of working memory-related neural generators, even in pure attention tasks, as indicated by the decreased N200 latency and increased amplitude of sustained θ ERS in detection compared with controls. Limitations: Owing to the limited sample size, no distinction was made between patients with first-episode psychosis with positive and negative symptoms. Although we controlled for the global load of neuroleptics, medication effect cannot be totally ruled out. Conclusion: The present findings support the concept of a blunted electroencephalographic response in patients with first-episode psychosis who recruit the maximum neural generators in simple attention conditions without being able to modulate their brain activation with increased complexity of working memory tasks.