Social security in theory and practice (II): Efficiency theories, narrative theories and implications for reform

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forcescreate and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1999b) document several of the internationally and historically common features of social security programs, and explore "political" theories of Social Security. This paper discusses the "efficiency theories", which view creation of the SS program as a full of partial solution to some market failure. Efficiency explanations of social security include the "SS as welfare for the elderly" the "retirement increases productivity to optimally manage human capital externalities", "optimal retirement insurance", the "prodigal father problem", the "misguided Keynesian", the "optimal longevity insurance", the "governmenteconomizing transaction costs", and the "return on human capital investment". We also analyze four "narrative" theories of social security: the "chain letter theory", the "lump of labor theory", the "monopoly capitalism theory", and the "Sub-but-Nearly-Optimal policy response to private pensions theory".The political and efficiency explanations are compared with the international and historical facts and used to derive implications for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan. Most of the explanations suggest that forced savings does not increase welfare, and may decrease it.

Factor prices and productivity growth during the British Industrial Revolution

This paper presents new estimates of total factor productivity growth in Britain for the period1770 1860. We use the dual technique and argue that the estimates we derive from factorprices are of similar quality to quantity-based calculations. Our results provide further evidence,calculated on the basis of an independent set of sources, that productivity growth duringthe British Industrial Revolution was relatively slow. The Crafts Harley view of theIndustrial Revolution is thus reinforced. Our preferred estimates suggest a modest accelerationafter 1800.

Convertibility, currency controls and the cost of capital in Western Europe, 1950-1999

For most of the post-war period, Europe s capital markets remained largely closed to international capital flows. Thispaper explores the costs of this policy. Using an event-study methodology, I examine the extent to which restrictions ofcurrent and capital account convertibility affected stock returns. The delayed introduction of full currency convertibilityincreased the cost of capital. Also, a string of measures designed to reduce capital mobility before the ultimate collapseof the Bretton Woods System had considerable negative effects. These findings offer an explanation for the mountingevidence suggesting that capital account liberalization facilitates growth.

Reporting intellectual capital in Spain

This study reports on the analysis of annual reports from 14- listed companies in Spainover a five-year period, from 1998 to 2002. Companies in the sample are selected on thebasis of their knowledge-based assets and incentives to report on Intellectual Capital.The empirical analysis is twofold:1) Firstly, we analyse the value of intellectual capital using a value-based approach,through the difference between market and book value over the period considered. Results show that there is a general decrease in the 'hidden value' of these companies, probably due to the general trend in stock markets.2) Secondly, we carry out a content-based analysis of the complete annual reports of the companies over the five year period. Preliminary findings seem to suggest that although the level of disclosure has increased over time, this is mainly in the form of narrative. Overall, the level of disclosure of intellectual capital remains low.

Incomplete markets, labor supply and capital accumulation

In this paper we explore the accumulation of capital in the presence oflimited insurance against idiosyncratic shocks, borrowing constraintsand endogenous labor supply. As in the exogenous labor supply case(e.g. Aiyagari 1994, Huggett 1997), we find that steady states arecharacterized with an interest rate smaller than the rate of timepreference. However,wealsofind that when labor supply is endogenous thepresence of uncertainty and a borrowing limit are not enough to giverise to aggregate precautionary savings .

Iowa Capital Complex Master Plan, April 19, 2000

This document provides design and stratagies for the capital complex. Also for future physical development of the complex.

Testing financing constraints on firm investment using variable capital

We consider a dynamic multifactor model of investment with financing imperfections,adjustment costs and fixed and variable capital. We use the model to derive a test offinancing constraints based on a reduced form variable capital equation. Simulation resultsshow that this test correctly identifies financially constrained firms even when the estimationof firms investment opportunities is very noisy. In addition, the test is well specified inthe presence of both concave and convex adjustment costs of fixed capital. We confirmempirically the validity of this test on a sample of small Italian manufacturing companies.

Educação e Capital Social para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável das Comunidades Piscatórias da Ilha de Santiago (Cabo Verde)

As comunidades piscatórias da ilha de Santiago são as mais pobres de Cabo Verde, e as pessoas que aí vivem têm vindo a deparar-se com problemas socioeconómicos, com reflexos negativos em termos de pressão sobre os recursos naturais, do saneamento do meio e do exercício da cidadania, sendo este uma das vias que poderia contribuir para a resolução da problemática do desenvolvimento dessas comunidades. O presente trabalho de investigação tem por objetivo analisar o nível da educação e do capital social nas comunidades piscatórias da ilha de Santiago em Cabo Verde, evidenciar o papel da educação na formação e no reforço do nível de capital social nessas comunidades e analisar a importância, deste último, para o desenvolvimento sustentável das mesmas. Para a realização deste trabalho foi utilizada uma metodologia com enfoque quantitativo e exploratório. Para além do estudo documental, para a obtenção da informação sobre a educação, o capital social e o desenvolvimento, os dados da parte prática do trabalho foram obtidos por meio de inquérito por questionário aplicado às 340 (trezentas e quarentas) pessoas, de ambos os sexos, das comunidades piscatórias da ilha de Santiago, escolhidas aleatoriamente. Os resultados do estudo foram apresentados com base em estatísticas descritivas e fez-se testes estatísticos para verificar a dependência/ independência entre as variáveis do estudo e as hipóteses. Ainda, a discussão dos resultados de estudo foi feita tendo em consideração o suporte teórico, a esse respeito, e que consta do trabalho. Da análise e discussão dos resultados do trabalho, conclui-se que, nas comunidades piscatórias da ilha de Santiago, não há correlação direta entre o nível de educação e o de capital social, sendo este mais elevado para os respondentes que não sabem ler e nem escrever e para os que não estão a frequentar estudos, e o Índice de Capital Social (ICS) das pessoas é suportado pela tradição. Ainda, o capital social dos inquiridos a nível da ilha de Santiago é de 0,76 e, sendo assim, acima da média estabelecida (0,50), e aproveitado pelas pessoas na vida quotidiana, mas não se projeta para as iniciativas sem efeitos imediatos e, em consequência, pouco tem vindo a contribuir para o desenvolvimento dessas comunidades.

Capital formation in machinery in Latin America, 1890-1930

Investment in machinery is a key aspect in the analysis of long-term economic growth during the era of the spread of industrialisation. But, historiography has only revealed what the pace of capital accumulation was in a few Latin American economies. This article offers continuous (annual) and consistent series on the magnitude of this investment in all of the Latin American countries for the period at the height of the first globalisation, 1890-1930. The paper gives special attention to comparative analysis, showing the differences that exist at the heart of the Latin American community, in the levels of capital formation in machinery as well as in the national development of this over time. The differences in the levels appear very indicative of the unequal degree of development reached by these economies. This article puts to test the hypothesis of intraregional divergence, obtaining the tentative result that there was divergence until 1913, but that there was convergence from 1914-1930.

Human capital distribution, growth and convergence

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between distribution and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations model with accumulation of human and physical capital. It is shown how human capital can determine a relationship between per capita growth rates and inequality in the distribution of income. Family background effects and spillovers in the transmission of human capital generate a dynamics in which aggregate variables depend not only on the stock, but also on the distribution of human capital. The evolution of this distribution over time is then characterized under different assumptions on private returns and the form of the externality in the technology for humancapital. Conditions for existence, uniqueness and stability of a constant growth equilibrium with a stationary distribution are derived. Increasing returns, idiosyncratic abilities and the possibility of poverty traps are explicitely characterized in a closed form solution of the equilibrium dynamics, showing the role played by technology and preferences parameters.

Business cycles, unemployment insurance and the calibration of matching models

This paper theoretically and empirically documents a puzzle that arises when an RBC economy with a job matching function is used to model unemployment. The standard model can generate sufficiently large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment, or a sufficiently small response of unemployment to labor market policies, but it cannot do both. Variable search and separation, finite UI benefit duration, efficiency wages, and capital all fail to resolve this puzzle. However, either sticky wages or match-specific productivity shocks can improve the model's performance by making the firm's flow of surplus more procyclical, which makes hiring more procyclical too.

Bank versus venture capital

Why do some start-up firms raise funds from banks andothers from venture capitalists? To answer this question,I develop a model of start-up financing when intellectualproperty rights are not well protected. The upside of VCfinancing is that the VC understands the business betterthan a bank. The downside, however, is that the VC maysteal the idea and use it himself. The results of themodel are consistent with empirical regularities onstart-up financing. The model implies that thecharacteristics of the firms financing from venturecapitalists are low-collateral, high-growth and high-profitability. The model also suggests that thetighter protection of intellectual property rightscontributes to the recent dramatic growth of the USventure capital industry.

Children's work in Spanish textiles during the 19th and 20th Centuries

This essay deals with the reasons explaining children s work in 19th century textile factories and their removal during the first part of the 20th century. The inadequacy of the structure of incomes and expenditures of the household and the very low economic incentives to educate children can explain why children were in the factories and not in the school. Moreover, the marginal economic contribution to the economy of the household of a child was the same as that of his mother. This normally implied that women and children were perfect substitutes. When the family had a child at working age this allowed to replace the paid work input of the mother. With the beginnings of the 20th century a set of changes leading to the increase of women s productivity and hourly real wages, switched the situation and involved the new incorporation of women into paid work and the investment in children s human capital.

Foreign ownership and productivity dynamics

In analyzing the distinctive contribution of foreign subsidiaries anddomestic firms to productivity growth in aggregate Belgian manufacturing,this paper shows that foreign ownership is an important source of firmheterogeneity affecting productivity dynamics. Foreign firms havecontributed disproportionately large to aggregate productivity growth,but more importantly reallocation processes differ significantly betweenthe groups of foreign subsidiaries and domestic firms.