Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Sexually dimorphic melanin-based colour polymorphism, feather melanin content, and wing feather structure in the barn owl (Tyto alba)

Feathers confer protection against biophysical agents and determine flying ability. The geometry and arrangement of the barbs, together with the keratin and pigments deposited in the feathers, determine the mechanical stability of the vane, and its stiffness and resistance to abrasive agents. In colour-polymorphic species, individuals display alternative colour morphs, which can be associated with different foraging strategies. Each morph may therefore require specific flying abilities, and their feathers may be exposed to different abrasive agents. Feathers of differently coloured individuals may thus have a specific structure, and colour pigments may help resist abrasive agents and improve stiffness. We examined these predictions in the barn owl (Tyto alba), a species for which the ventral body side varies from white to dark reddish pheomelanic, and in the number and size of black spots located at the tip of the feathers. White and reddish birds show different foraging strategies, and the size of black feather spots is associated with several phenotypic attributes. We found that birds displaying a darker reddish coloration on the ventral body side deposit more melanin pigments in their remiges, which also have fewer barbs. This suggests that wear resistance increases with darkness, whereas feathers of lighter coloured birds may bend less easily. Accordingly, individuals displaying a lighter reddish coloration on the ventral body side, and those displaying larger black spots, displayed more black transverse bars on their remiges: as larger-spotted individuals are heavier and longer-winged birds also have more transverse bars, these bars may reduce feather bending when flying. We conclude that differently coloured individuals produce wing feathers of different strengths to adopt alternative behavioural and life history strategies

Colour image processing

In the context of the round table the following topics related to image colour processing will be discussed: historical point of view. Studies of Aguilonius, Gerritsen, Newton and Maxwell. CIE standard (Commission International de lpsilaEclaraige). Colour models. RGB, HIS, etc. Colour segmentation based on HSI model. Industrial applications. Summary and discussion. At the end, video images showing the robustness of colour in front of B/W images will be presented

A method to obtain the integrated contour image in colour scenes

This paper describes a method to achieve the most relevant contours of an image. The presented method proposes to integrate the information of the local contours from chromatic components such as H, S and I, taking into account the criteria of coherence of the local contour orientation values obtained from each of these components. The process is based on parametrizing pixel by pixel the local contours (magnitude and orientation values) from the H, S and I images. This process is carried out individually for each chromatic component. If the criterion of dispersion of the obtained orientation values is high, this chromatic component will lose relevance. A final processing integrates the extracted contours of the three chromatic components, generating the so-called integrated contours image

Tests for sex-biased dispersal using bi-parentally inherited genetic markers.

Understanding why dispersal is sex-biased in many taxa is still a major concern in evolutionary ecology. Dispersal tends to be male-biased in mammals and female-biased in birds, but counter-examples exist and little is known about sex bias in other taxa. Obtaining accurate measures of dispersal in the field remains a problem. Here we describe and compare several methods for detecting sex-biased dispersal using bi-parentally inherited, codominant genetic markers. If gene flow is restricted among populations, then the genotype of an individual tells something about its origin. Provided that dispersal occurs at the juvenile stage and that sampling is carried out on adults, genotypes sampled from the dispersing sex should on average be less likely (compared to genotypes from the philopatric sex) in the population in which they were sampled. The dispersing sex should be less genetically structured and should present a larger heterozygote deficit. In this study we use computer simulations and a permutation test on four statistics to investigate the conditions under which sex-biased dispersal can be detected. Two tests emerge as fairly powerful. We present results concerning the optimal sampling strategy (varying number of samples, individuals, loci per individual and level of polymorphism) under different amounts of dispersal for each sex. These tests for biases in dispersal are also appropriate for any attribute (e.g. size, colour, status) suspected to influence the probability of dispersal. A windows program carrying out these tests can be freely downloaded from http://www.unil.ch/izea/softwares/fstat.html

A new approach to real time traffic sign recognition based on colour information

The automatic interpretation of conventional traffic signs is very complex and time consuming. The paper concerns an automatic warning system for driving assistance. It does not interpret the standard traffic signs on the roadside; the proposal is to incorporate into the existing signs another type of traffic sign whose information will be more easily interpreted by a processor. The type of information to be added is profuse and therefore the most important object is the robustness of the system. The basic proposal of this new philosophy is that the co-pilot system for automatic warning and driving assistance can interpret with greater ease the information contained in the new sign, whilst the human driver only has to interpret the "classic" sign. One of the codings that has been tested with good results and which seems to us easy to implement is that which has a rectangular shape and 4 vertical bars of different colours. The size of these signs is equivalent to the size of the conventional signs (approximately 0.4 m2). The colour information from the sign can be easily interpreted by the proposed processor and the interpretation is much easier and quicker than the information shown by the pictographs of the classic signs

Confabulation in schizophrenia: a neuropsychological study.

Confabulation has been documented in schizophrenia, but its neuropsychological correlates appear to be different from those of confabulation in neurological disease states. Forty-five schizophrenic patients and 37 controls were administered a task requiring them to recall fables. They also underwent testing with a range of memory and executive tasks. The patients with schizophrenia produced significantly more confabulations than the controls. After correcting for multiple comparisons, confabulation was not significantly associated with memory impairment, and was associated with impairment on only one of eight executive measures, the Brixton Test. Confabulation scores were also associated with impairment on two semantic memory tests. Confabulation was correlated with intrusion errors in recall, but not false positive errors in a recognition task. The findings suggest that confabulation in schizophrenia is unrelated to the episodic memory impairment seen in the disorder. However, the association with a circumscribed deficit in executive function could be consistent with a defective strategic retrieval account of confabulation similar to that of Moscovitch and co-workers, interacting with defective semantic memory.

Reliability and validity of physiological data obtained within a cycle-run transition test in age-group triathletes.

This study examined the validity and reliability of a sequential "Run-Bike-Run" test (RBR) in age-group triathletes. Eight Olympic distance (OD) specialists (age 30.0 ± 2.0 years, mass 75.6 ± 1.6 kg, run VO2max 63.8 ± 1.9 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1), cycle VO2peak 56.7 ± 5.1 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1)) performed four trials over 10 days. Trial 1 (TRVO2max) was an incremental treadmill running test. Trials 2 and 3 (RBR1 and RBR2) involved: 1) a 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R1) plus a 1-min transition to 2) cycling to fatigue (2 W· kg(-1) body mass then 30 W each 3 min); 3) 10-min cycling at 3 W· kg(-1) (Bsubmax); another 1-min transition and 4) a second 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R2). Trial 4 (TT) was a 30-min cycle - 20-min run time trial. No significant differences in absolute oxygen uptake (VO2), heart rate (HR), or blood lactate concentration ([BLA]) were evidenced between RBR1 and RBR2. For all measured physiological variables, the limits of agreement were similar, and the mean differences were physiologically unimportant, between trials. Low levels of test-retest error (i.e. ICC <0.8, CV<10%) were observed for most (logged) measurements. However [BLA] post R1 (ICC 0.87, CV 25.1%), [BLA] post Bsubmax (ICC 0.99, CV 16.31) and [BLA] post R2 (ICC 0.51, CV 22.9%) were least reliable. These error ranges may help coaches detect real changes in training status over time. Moreover, RBR test variables can be used to predict discipline specific and overall TT performance. Cycle VO2peak, cycle peak power output, and the change between R1 and R2 (deltaR1R2) in [BLA] were most highly related to overall TT distance (r = 0.89, p < 0. 01; r = 0.94, p < 0.02; r = 0.86, p < 0.05, respectively). The percentage of TR VO2max at 15 km· h(-1), and deltaR1R2 HR, were also related to run TT distance (r = -0.83 and 0.86, both p < 0.05).

Differential prefrontal-like deficit in children after cerebellar astrocytoma and medulloblastoma tumor

BACKGROUND This study was realized thanks to the collaboration of children and adolescents who had been resected from cerebellar tumors. The medulloblastoma group (CE+, n = 7) in addition to surgery received radiation and chemotherapy. The astrocytoma group (CE, n = 13) did not receive additional treatments. Each clinical group was compared in their executive functioning with a paired control group (n = 12). The performances of the clinical groups with respect to controls were compared considering the tumor's localization (vermis or hemisphere) and the affectation (or not) of the dentate nucleus. Executive variables were correlated with the age at surgery, the time between surgery-evaluation and the resected volume. METHODS The executive functioning was assessed by means of WCST, Complex Rey Figure, Controlled Oral Word Association Test (letter and animal categories), Digits span (WISC-R verbal scale) and Stroop test. These tests are very sensitive to dorsolateral PFC and/or to medial frontal cortex functions. The scores for the non-verbal Raven IQ were also obtained. Direct scores were corrected by age and transformed in standard scores using normative data. The neuropsychological evaluation was made at 3.25 (SD = 2.74) years from surgery in CE group and at 6.47 (SD = 2.77) in CE+ group. RESULTS The Medulloblastoma group showed severe executive deficit (tests, the most severe occurring in vermal patients. The Astrocytoma group also showed executive deficits in digits span, semantic fluency (animal category) and moderate to slight deficit in Stroop (word and colour) tests. In the astrocytoma group, the tumor's localization and dentate affectation showed different profile and level of impairment: moderate to slight for vermal and hemispheric patients respectively. The resected volume, age at surgery and the time between surgery-evaluation correlated with some neuropsychological executive variables. CONCLUSION Results suggest a differential prefrontal-like deficit due to cerebellar lesions and/or cerebellar-frontal diaschisis, as indicate the results in astrocytoma group (without treatments), that also can be generated and/or increased by treatments in the medulloblastoma group. The need for differential rehabilitation strategies for specific clinical groups is remarked. The results are also discussed in the context of the Cerebellar Cognitive Affective Syndrome.