Long-term drivers of broadband traffic in next-generation networks

This paper is concerned with long-term (20+ years) forecasting of broadband traffic in next-generation networks. Such long-term approach requires going beyond extrapolations of past traffic data while facing high uncertainty in predicting the future developments and facing the fact that, in 20 years, the current network technologies and architectures will be obsolete. Thus, "order of magnitude" upper bounds of upstream and downstream traffic are deemed to be good enough to facilitate such long-term forecasting. These bounds can be obtained by evaluating the limits of human sighting and assuming that these limits will be achieved by future services or, alternatively, by considering the contents transferred by bandwidth-demanding applications such as those using embedded interactive 3D video streaming. The traffic upper bounds are a good indication of the peak values and, subsequently, also of the future network capacity demands. Furthermore, the main drivers of traffic growth including multimedia as well as non-multimedia applications are identified. New disruptive applications and services are explored that can make good use of the large bandwidth provided by next-generation networks. The results can be used to identify monetization opportunities of future services and to map potential revenues for network operators. © 2014 The Author(s).

An intervention encouraging planned self-regulation and goal setting in drivers across the lifespan:testing an extended theory of planned behaviour

Previous work has demonstrated that planning behaviours may be more adaptive than avoidance strategies in driving self-regulation, but ways of encouraging planning have not been investigated. The efficacy of an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) plus implementation intention based intervention to promote planning self-regulation in drivers across the lifespan was tested. An age stratified group of participants (N=81, aged 18-83 years) was randomly assigned to an experimental or control condition. The intervention prompted specific goal setting with action planning and barrier identification. Goal setting was carried out using an agreed behavioural contract. Baseline and follow-up measures of TPB variables, self-reported, driving self-regulation behaviours (avoidance and planning) and mobility goal achievements were collected using postal questionnaires. Like many previous efforts to change planned behaviour by changing its predictors using models of planned behaviour such as the TPB, results showed that the intervention did not significantly change any of the model components. However, more than 90% of participants achieved their primary driving goal, and self-regulation planning as measured on a self-regulation inventory was marginally improved. The study demonstrates the role of pre-decisional, or motivational components as contrasted with post-decisional goal enactment, and offers promise for the role of self-regulation planning and implementation intentions in assisting drivers in achieving their mobility goals and promoting safer driving across the lifespan, even in the context of unchanging beliefs such as perceived risk or driver anxiety.

Powertrain optimisation in a hybrid electric bus

This paper describes the use of a formal optimisation procedure to optimise a plug-in hybrid electric bus using two different case studies to meet two different performance criteria; minimum journey cost and maximum battery life. The approach is to choose a commercially available vehicle and seek to improve its performance by varying key design parameters. Central to this approach is the ability to develop a representative backward facing model of the vehicle in MATLAB/Simulink along with appropriate optimisation objective and penalty functions. The penalty functions being the margin by which a particular design fails to meet the performance specification. The model is validated against data collected from an actual vehicle and is used to estimate the vehicle performance parameters in a model-in-the-loop process within an optimisation routine. For the purposes of this paper, the journey cost/battery life over a drive cycle is optimised whilst other performance indices are met (or exceeded). Among the available optimisation methods, Powell's method and Simulated Annealing are adopted. The results show this method as a valid alternative modelling approach to vehicle powertrain optimisation. © 2012 IEEE.

Inward investment and the drivers of post recession recovery in Germany

This paper examines changes in the drivers of productivity in Germany over the period 1997-2012. We start by comparing the performance of German firms and inward investors before and during the recovery from the recent global financial crisis of 2008 across a range of sectors, and subsequently examine the channels through which different firms are able to generate productivity. Our results show that foreign investors are more productive than German MNEs and purely domestic firms, with the gap narrowing in the manufacturing sector, but growing in the service sector during the recovery period. We also contrast those firms for whom productivity growth is related to greater use of intangible assets, compared with those for whom productivity is linked to cash flow. Productivity of inward investors is driven by cash flow rather than intangible assets, these being limited to high-technology investors from the EU and the USA.

Fault diagnosis scheme for open-circuit faults in switched reluctance motor drives using fast Fourier transform algorithm with bus current detection

Reliability of power converters is of crucial importance in switched reluctance motor drives used for safety-critical applications. Open-circuit faults in power converters will cause the motor to run in unbalanced states, and if left untreated, they will lead to damage to the motor and power modules, and even cause a catastrophic failure of the whole drive system. This study is focused on using a single current sensor to detect open-circuit faults accurately. An asymmetrical half-bridge converter is considered in this study and the faults of single-phase open and two-phase open are analysed. Three different bus positions are defined. On the basis of a fast Fourier transform algorithm with Blackman window interpolation, the bus current spectrums before and after open-circuit faults are analysed in details. Their fault characteristics are extracted accurately by the normalisations of the phase fundamental frequency component and double phase fundamental frequency component, and the fault characteristics of the three bus detection schemes are also compared. The open-circuit faults can be located by finding the relationship between the bus current and rotor position. The effectiveness of the proposed diagnosis method is validated by the simulation results and experimental tests.

Labour productivity change: drivers, business impact and macroeconomic moderators

This paper focuses on the operational drivers of labour productivity changes. We consider two sets of drivers: a) current working practices b) changes in working practices through management programs. The relationship between these two sets of drivers and productivity changes are analysed. We also investigate the importance of productivity growth by looking at the impact of labour productivity changes on business performance changes. Finally, the moderating effects of industry and country on the use of drivers of productivity changes are examined. Data from an international survey, IMSS-IV, are used for the analysis.

Knowledge and innovation as value drivers in professional services firms: an empirical research in Central and Eastern Europe

The purpose of this study was to investigate empirically the role of knowledge and innovation within Central and Eastern Europe’s changing economy. We applied qualitative research methods, and focused only on professional services firms within the region. The connection between knowledge and innovation as well as knowledge and competitiveness was analyzed by top managers and senior industry experts. Our findings revealed that knowledge might be a real value driver for professional services firms. These companies can significantly contribute to the development of modern economies through the dissemination of their internal best practices in knowledge management. We found three factors that might influence the effectiveness of knowledge management. These three factors are the involvement of international knowledge networks, the investments in human capital, and focus on critical resources. These issues proved to be essential to maximize the potential of knowledge and to leverage this into increased business performance.

Content and drivers of performance management in agency-type organizations of the hungarian public administration

The improving performance of public administration and the reform of public financing system have been on agenda in Hungary for many years, in accordance with the international trends. However, governments have not expected and supported creating of a performance-oriented public administration in a comprehensive and explicit way. Nevertheless, there are bottom-up initiatives at organizational level, which target performance-oriented organizational function. The research focuses on organizations of central public administration where the successful application of performance management methods is most likely based on the international literature. These are the so called agency-type organizations, which are in Hungary called autonomous state-administration organizations independent of the Government (e.g. Hungarian Competition Authority), government bureaus (e.g. Hungarian Central Statistical Office), and central offices subordinated to the government (either the cabinet or a ministry) (e.g. Hungarian Meteorological Service). The studied agencies are legally independent organizations with managerial autonomy based on public law. The purpose of this study is to get an overview on organizational level performance management tools applied by Hungarian agencies, and to reveal the reasons and drivers of the application of these tools. The empirical research is based on a mixed methods approach which combines both quantitative methods and qualitative procedures. The first – quantitative – phase of the author’s research was content analysis of homepages of the studied organizations. As a results she got information about all agencies and their practice related to some performance management tools. The second – qualitative – phase was based on semi-structured face-to-face interviews with some senior managers of agencies. The author selected the interviewees based on the results of the first phase, the relatively strong performance orientation was an important selection criteria.

Patterns and Drivers of the Agri-Food Intra-Industry Trade of European Union Countries

This paper investigates the drivers of agri-food intra-industry trade (IIT) indices in the European Union (EU-27) member states during the period from 2000–2011. The increased proportion of IIT in matched two-way agri-food trade of the EU-27 member states is consistent with economic integration and economic growth. When export prices were at least 15% higher than the import prices, high-vertical IIT, increased for most member states. This finding suggests that quality improvements occurred when comparing agri-food exports to similar imports of agri-food products. The IIT indices for both horizontal and vertical IIT are positively associated with higher economic development levels, new EU membership and EU enlargement. Additionally, as higher levels of economic development decreases, the size of the economy and marginal IIT increases the effects of agri-food trade liberalization on the costs of the labor market adjustment. Understanding how improvements in agri-food trade quality impact agribusiness and managerial competitiveness reveal significant policy implications.

Capacity-based cost modeling for light rail and bus rapid transit systems

Choosing between Light Rail Transit (LRT) and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems is often controversial and not an easy task for transportation planners who are contemplating the upgrade of their public transportation services. These two transit systems provide comparable services for medium-sized cities from the suburban neighborhood to the Central Business District (CBD) and utilize similar right-of-way (ROW) categories. The research is aimed at developing a method to assist transportation planners and decision makers in determining the most feasible system between LRT and BRT. ^ Cost estimation is a major factor when evaluating a transit system. Typically, LRT is more expensive to build and implement than BRT, but has significantly lower Operating and Maintenance (OM) costs than BRT. This dissertation examines the factors impacting capacity and costs, and develops cost models, which are a capacity-based cost estimate for the LRT and BRT systems. Various ROW categories and alignment configurations of the systems are also considered in the developed cost models. Kikuchi's fleet size model (1985) and cost allocation method are used to develop the cost models to estimate the capacity and costs. ^ The comparison between LRT and BRT are complicated due to many possible transportation planning and operation scenarios. In the end, a user-friendly computer interface integrated with the established capacity-based cost models, the LRT and BRT Cost Estimator (LBCostor), was developed by using Microsoft Visual Basic language to facilitate the process and will guide the users throughout the comparison operations. The cost models and the LBCostor can be used to analyze transit volumes, alignments, ROW configurations, number of stops and stations, headway, size of vehicle, and traffic signal timing at the intersections. The planners can make the necessary changes and adjustments depending on their operating practices. ^

The drivers of perception: Identifying the driving factors of resident perceptions of municipal service quality in cities of South Florida

The idea of comparative performance assessment is crucial. Recent study findings show that in South Florida the use by most municipalities of external benchmarks for performance comparison is virtually non-existent. On one level this study sought to identify the factors impacting resident perceptions of municipal service quality. On a different and more practical level, this study sought to identify a core set of measures that could serve for multi jurisdictional comparisons of performance. ^ This study empirically tested three groups of hypotheses. Data were collected via custom designed survey instruments from multiple jurisdictions, representing diverse socioeconomic backgrounds, and across two counties. A second layer of analysis was conducted on municipal budget documents for the presence of performance measures. A third layer of analysis was conducted via face-to-face interviews with residents at the point of service delivery. Research questions were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistic methodologies. ^ Results of survey data yielded inconsistent findings. In absolute aggregated terms, the use of sociological determinants to guide inquiry failed to yield conclusive answers regarding the factors impacting resident perceptions of municipal service quality. At disaggregated community levels, however, definite differences emerged but these had weak predictive ability. More useful were the findings of performance measures reporting via municipal budget documents and analyses of interviews with residents at the point of service delivery. Regardless of socio-economic profile, neighborhood characteristics, level of civic engagement or type of community, the same aspects were important to citizens when making assessments of service quality. For parks and recreation, respondents most frequently cited maintenance, facility amenities, and program offerings as important while for garbage collection services timely and consistent service delivery mattered most. Surprisingly municipalities participating in the study track performance data on items indicated as important by citizen assessments but regular feed back from residents or reporting to the same is rarely done. ^ The implications of these findings suggest that endeavors, such as the one undertaken in this study, can assist in determining a core set of measures for cross jurisdictional comparisons of municipal service quality, improving municipal delivery of services, and to communicate with the public. ^

Coral disease dynamics and environmental drivers in the northern Florida Keys and Lee Stocking Island, Bahamas

Coral reefs are experiencing declines worldwide and recently coral diseases have been identified as significant contributors to coral mortality. However, little is known regarding the factors that drive coral disease distributions and dynamics. Current knowledge of the organisms that cause coral diseases is also limited, with pathogens having been identified for only 5 of the 21 described coral diseases. The study presented here describes coral disease dynamics in terms of occurrence, prevalence, spatial distribution, and host species susceptibility from 2002--2004 on reefs of the Northern Florida Keys (NFK) and Lee Stocking Island (LSI) in the Bahamas' Exuma chain. In addition, this research investigated the influence of temperature, sediment, and nutrient availability on coral disease prevalence and severity. Finally, microbial communities associated with a polymicrobial disease, black band, were examined to address spatial and temporal variability. ^ Four scleractinian diseases were observed in repeated surveys conducted during June-August of each year: black band disease (BBD), white plague type 2 (WP), dark spots syndrome (DSS), and yellow band disease-(YBD). Coral disease prevalence was generally low in both the NFK and LSI as compared to epizootic levels reported previously in the NFK and other regions of the Caribbean. Disease prevalence and species susceptibility varied spatially and temporally. Massive framework species, including Siderastrea siderea, Colpophyllia natans, and Montastraea annularis, along with relatively smaller colonies of Meandrina meandrites and Dichocoenia stokesi, were most susceptible to disease. Temperature, sedimentation, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen were positively correlated with BBD infections. Furthermore, experimental nutrient enrichment exacerbated coral tissue loss to BBD both in situ and in vivo. Profiling of BBD microbial communities using length heterogeneity PCR revealed variation over space and time, with significantly distinct bacterial assemblages in the NFK, LSI, and US Virgin Islands. ^ This study contributes to knowledge of the relationship between coral diseases and the environment, and facilitates predictions regarding potential changes in coral reef communities under differing environmental conditions. Additionally, this research provides further understanding of coral disease dynamics at both the host and microbial pathogen levels.^

Optimization models for selecting bus stops for accessibility improvements for people with disabilities

Bus stops are key links in the journeys of transit patrons with disabilities. Inaccessible bus stops prevent people with disabilities from using fixed-route bus services, thus limiting their mobility. The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990 prescribes the minimum requirements for bus stop accessibility by riders with disabilities. Due to limited budgets, transit agencies can only select a limited number of bus stop locations for ADA improvements annually. These locations should preferably be selected such that they maximize the overall benefits to patrons with disabilities. In addition, transit agencies may also choose to implement the universal design paradigm, which involves higher design standards than current ADA requirements and can provide amenities that are useful for all riders, like shelters and lighting. Many factors can affect the decision to improve a bus stop, including rider-based aspects like the number of riders with disabilities, total ridership, customer complaints, accidents, deployment costs, as well as locational aspects like the location of employment centers, schools, shopping areas, and so on. These interlacing factors make it difficult to identify optimum improvement locations without the aid of an optimization model. This dissertation proposes two integer programming models to help identify a priority list of bus stops for accessibility improvements. The first is a binary integer programming model designed to identify bus stops that need improvements to meet the minimum ADA requirements. The second involves a multi-objective nonlinear mixed integer programming model that attempts to achieve an optimal compromise among the two accessibility design standards. Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used extensively to both prepare the model input and examine the model output. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to combine all of the factors affecting the benefits to patrons with disabilities. An extensive sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the reasonableness of the model outputs in response to changes in model constraints. Based on a case study using data from Broward County Transit (BCT) in Florida, the models were found to produce a list of bus stops that upon close examination were determined to be highly logical. Compared to traditional approaches using staff experience, requests from elected officials, customer complaints, etc., these optimization models offer a more objective and efficient platform on which to make bus stop improvement suggestions.

Responses of sawgrass and spikerush to variation in hydrologic drivers and salinity in Southern Everglades marshes

Aboveground net primary production (ANPP) by the dominant macrophyte and plant community composition are related to the changing hydrologic environment and to salinity in the southern Everglades, FL, USA. We present a new non-destructive ANPP technique that is applicable to any continuously growing herbaceous system. Data from 16 sites, collected from 1998 to 2004, were used to investigate how hydrology and salinity controlled sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense Crantz.) ANPP. Sawgrass live biomass showed little seasonal variation and annual means ranged from 89 to 639 gdw m)2. Mortality rates were 20–35% of live biomass per 2 month sampling interval, for biomass turnover rates of 1.3–2.5 per year. Production by C. jamaicense was manifest primarily as biomass turnover, not as biomass accumulation. Rates typically ranged from 300 to 750 gdw m)2 year)1, but exceeded 1000 gdw m)2 year)1 at one site and were as high as 750 gdw m)2 year)1 at estuarine ecotone sites. Production was negatively related to mean annual water depth, hydroperiod, and to a variable combining the two (depth-days). As water depths and hydroperiods increased in our southern Everglades study area, sawgrass ANPP declined. Because a primary restoration goal is to increase water depths and hydroperiods for some regions of the Everglades, we investigated how the plant community responded to this decline in sawgrass ANPP. Spikerush (Eleocharis sp.) was the next most prominent component of this community at our sites, and 39% of the variability in sawgrass ANPP was explained by a negative relationship with mean annual water depth, hydroperiod, and Eleocharis sp. density the following year. Sawgrass ANPP at estuarine ecotone sites responded negatively to salinity, and rates of production were slow to recover after high salinity years. Our results suggest that ecologists, managers, and the public should not necessarily interpret a decline in sawgrass that may result from hydrologic restoration as a negative phenomenon.

Effects of hydrologic and water quality drivers on periphyton dynamics in the southern Everglades

Everglades periphyton mats are tightly-coupled autotrophic (algae and cyanobacteria) and heterotrophic (eubacteria, fungi and microinvertebrates) microbial assemblages. We investigated the effect of water column total phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations, water depth and hydroperiod on periphyton of net production, respiration, nutrient content, and biomass. Our study sites were located along four transects that extended southward with freshwater sheetflow through sawgrass-dominated marsh. The water source for two of the transects were canal-driven and anchored at canal inputs. The two other transects were rain-driven (ombrotrophic) and began in sawgrass-dominated marsh. Periphyton dynamics were examined for upstream and downstream effects within and across the four transects. Although all study sites were characterized as short hydroperiod and phosphorus-limited oligotrophic, they represent gradients of hydrologic regime, water source and water quality of the southern Everglades. Average periphyton net production of 1.08 mg C AFDW−1 h−1 and periphyton whole system respiration of 0.38 mg C AFDW−1 h−1 rates were net autotrophic. Biomass was generally highest at ombrotrophic sites and sites downstream of canal inputs. Mean biomass over all our study sites was high, 1517.30 g AFDW m−2. Periphyton was phosphorus-limited. Average periphyton total phosphorus content was 137.15 μg P g−1 and average periphyton total N:P ratio was 192:1. Periphyton N:P was a sensitive indicator of water source. Even at extremely low mean water total phosphorus concentrations ( ≤ 0.21 μmol l−1), we found canal source effects on periphyton dynamics at sites adjacent to canal inputs, but not downstream of inflows. These canal source effects were most pronounced at the onset of wet season with initial rewetting. Spatial and temporal variability in periphyton dynamics could not solely be ascribed to water quality, but was often associated with both hydrology and water source.