Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities

In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation. Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

Inestabilidad de pórticos planos metálicos de edificación con inclusión de la flexibilidad de las uniones y elementos no prismáticos : un enfoque para la optimización

En esta tesis se aborda el problema de la modelización, análisis y optimización de pórticos metálicos planos de edificación frente a los estados límites último y de servicio. El objetivo general es presentar una técnica secuencial ordenada de optimización discreta para obtener el coste mínimo de pórticos metálicos planos de edificación, teniendo en cuenta las especificaciones del EC-3, incorporando las uniones semirrígidas y elementos no prismáticos en el proceso de diseño. Asimismo se persigue valorar su grado de influencia sobre el diseño final. El horizonte es extraer conclusiones prácticas que puedan ser de utilidad y aplicación simple para el proyecto de estructuras metálicas. La cantidad de publicaciones técnicas y científicas sobre la respuesta estructural de entramados metálicos es inmensa; por ello se ha hecho un esfuerzo intenso en recopilar el estado actual del conocimiento, sobre las líneas y necesidades actuales de investigación. Se ha recabado información sobre los métodos modernos de cálculo y diseño, sobre los factores que influyen sobre la respuesta estructural, sobre técnicas de modelización y de optimización, al amparo de las indicaciones que algunas normativas actuales ofrecen sobre el tema. En esta tesis se ha desarrollado un procedimiento de modelización apoyado en el método de los elementos finitos implementado en el entorno MatLab; se han incluido aspectos claves tales como el comportamiento de segundo orden, la comprobación ante inestabilidad y la búsqueda del óptimo del coste de la estructura frente a estados límites, teniendo en cuenta las especificaciones del EC-3. También se ha modelizado la flexibilidad de las uniones y se ha analizado su influencia en la respuesta de la estructura y en el peso y coste final de la misma. Se han ejecutado algunos ejemplos de aplicación y se ha contrastado la validez del modelo con resultados de algunas estructuras ya analizadas en referencias técnicas conocidas. Se han extraído conclusiones sobre el proceso de modelización y de análisis, sobre la repercusión de la flexibilidad de las uniones en la respuesta de la estructura. El propósito es extraer conclusiones útiles para la etapa de proyecto. Una de las principales aportaciones del trabajo en su enfoque de optimización es la incorporación de una formulación de elementos no prismáticos con uniones semirrígidas en sus extremos. Se ha deducido una matriz de rigidez elástica para dichos elementos. Se ha comprobado su validez para abordar el análisis no lineal; para ello se han comparado los resultados con otros obtenidos tras aplicar otra matriz deducida analíticamente existente en la literatura y también mediante el software comercial SAP2000. Otra de las aportaciones de esta tesis es el desarrollo de un método de optimización del coste de pórticos metálicos planos de edificación en el que se tienen en cuenta aspectos tales como las imperfecciones, la posibilidad de incorporar elementos no prismáticos y la caracterización de las uniones semirrígidas, valorando la influencia de su flexibilidad sobre la respuesta de la estructura. Así, se han realizado estudios paramétricos para valorar la sensibilidad y estabilidad de las soluciones obtenidas, así como rangos de validez de las conclusiones obtenidas. This thesis deals with the problems of modelling, analysis and optimization of plane steel frames with regard to ultimate and serviceability limit states. The objective of this work is to present an organized sequential technique of discrete optimization for achieving the minimum cost of plane steel frames, taking into consideration the EC-3 specifications as well as including effects of the semi-rigid joints and non-prismatic elements in the design process. Likewise, an estimate of their influence on the final design is an aim of this work. The final objective is to draw practical conclusions which can be handful and easily applicable for a steel-structure project. An enormous amount of technical and scientific publications regarding steel frames is currently available, thus making the achievement of a comprehensive and updated knowledge a considerably hard task. In this work, a large variety of information has been gathered and classified, especially that related to current research lines and needs. Thus, the literature collected encompasses references related to state-of-the-art design methods, factors influencing the structural response, modelling and optimization techniques, as well as calculation and updated guidelines of some steel Design Codes about the subject. In this work a modelling procedure based on the finite element implemented within the MatLab programming environment has been performed. Several keys aspects have been included, such as second order behaviour, the safety assessment against structural instability and the search for an optimal cost considering the limit states according to EC-3 specifications. The flexibility of joints has been taken into account in the procedure hereby presented; its effects on the structural response, on the optimum weight and on the final cost have also been analysed. In order to confirm the validity and adequacy of this procedure, some application examples have been carried out. The results obtained were compared with those available from other authors. Several conclusions about the procedure that comprises modelling, analysis and design stages, as well as the effect of the flexibility of connections on the structural response have been drawn. The purpose is to point out some guidelines for the early stages of a project. One of the contributions of this thesis is an attempt for optimizing plane steel frames in which both non-prismatic beam-column-type elements and semi-rigid connections have been considered. Thus, an elastic stiffness matrix has been derived. Its validity has been tested through comparing its accuracy with other analytically-obtained matrices available in the literature, and with results obtained by the commercial software SAP2000. Another achievement of this work is the development of a method for cost optimization of plane steel building frames in which some relevant aspects have been taken in consideration. These encompass geometric imperfections, non-prismatic beam elements and the numerical characterization of semi-rigid connections, evaluating the effect of its flexibility on the structural response. Hence, some parametric analyses have been performed in order to assess the sensitivity, the stability of the outcomes and their range of applicability as well.

Seismic modelling of bridges with semirigid connections

The need to modal semi-rigid behaviour of joints to analyze the seismic response of bridges arises when retrofitting devices such as cables or bolts are introduced in otherwise free joints or when the design takes advantage of the plastification of structural sections to impose energy dissipation though their ductile behaviour. The paper presents some preliminary results of a parametric study carried out using s1mplified computational models. Two instances where semirigid connection play a role in the seismic response of bridges have been discussed. The ongoing research from which this paper is extracted is intended to enhance understanding on the effectivness of various bridge retrofitting measures and to provide information that may be used to calibrate some ECS-2 rules. Finally, it is hoped that the development of reliable simplified techniques for nonlinear analysis will provide designers with useful tools to examine behavior and ultimately improve seismic safety in actual bridges.

Design of in-building wireless networks deployments using evolutionary algorithms

In this article, a novel approach to deal with the design of in-building wireless networks deployments is proposed. This approach known as MOQZEA (Multiobjective Quality Zone Based Evolutionary Algorithm) is a hybr id evolutionary algorithm adapted to use a novel fitness function, based on the definition of quality zones for the different objective functions considered. This approach is conceived to solve wireless network design problems without previous information of the required number of transmitters, considering simultaneously a high number of objective functions and optimizing multiple configuration parameters of the transmitters.

A dynamic, probabilistic model for city building

The problem of interdependence between housing and commuting in a city has been analysed within the framework of welfare economics. Uncertain changes overtime in the working population has been considered by means of a dynamic, probabilistic model. The characteristics of irreversibility and durability in city building have been explicitly dealt with. The ultimate objective is that the model after further development will be an auxiliary tool in city planning.

Modelling of landslides propagation with SPH : effects of rheology and pore water pressure

El estudio desarrollado en este trabajo de tesis se centra en la modelización numérica de la fase de propagación de los deslizamientos rápidos de ladera a través del método sin malla Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH). Este método tiene la gran ventaja de permitir el análisis de problemas de grandes deformaciones evitando operaciones costosas de remallado como en el caso de métodos numéricos con mallas tal como el método de los Elementos Finitos. En esta tesis, particular atención viene dada al rol que la reología y la presión de poros desempeñan durante estos eventos. El modelo matemático utilizado se basa en la formulación de Biot-Zienkiewicz v - pw, que representa el comportamiento, expresado en términos de velocidad del esqueleto sólido y presiones de poros, de la mezcla de partículas sólidas en un medio saturado. Las ecuaciones que gobiernan el problema son: • la ecuación de balance de masa de la fase del fluido intersticial, • la ecuación de balance de momento de la fase del fluido intersticial y de la mezcla, • la ecuación constitutiva y • una ecuación cinemática. Debido a sus propiedades geométricas, los deslizamientos de ladera se caracterizan por tener una profundidad muy pequeña frente a su longitud y a su anchura, y, consecuentemente, el modelo matemático mencionado anteriormente se puede simplificar integrando en profundidad las ecuaciones, pasando de un modelo 3D a 2D, el cual presenta una combinación excelente de precisión, sencillez y costes computacionales. El modelo propuesto en este trabajo se diferencia de los modelos integrados en profundidad existentes por incorporar un ulterior modelo capaz de proveer información sobre la presión del fluido intersticial a cada paso computacional de la propagación del deslizamiento. En una manera muy eficaz, la evolución de los perfiles de la presión de poros está numéricamente resuelta a través de un esquema explicito de Diferencias Finitas a cada nodo SPH. Este nuevo enfoque es capaz de tener en cuenta la variación de presión de poros debida a cambios de altura, de consolidación vertical o de cambios en las tensiones totales. Con respecto al comportamiento constitutivo, uno de los problemas principales al modelizar numéricamente deslizamientos rápidos de ladera está en la dificultad de simular con la misma ley constitutiva o reológica la transición de la fase de iniciación, donde el material se comporta como un sólido, a la fase de propagación donde el material se comporta como un fluido. En este trabajo de tesis, se propone un nuevo modelo reológico basado en el modelo viscoplástico de Perzyna, pensando a la viscoplasticidad como a la llave para poder simular tanto la fase de iniciación como la de propagación con el mismo modelo constitutivo. Con el fin de validar el modelo matemático y numérico se reproducen tanto ejemplos de referencia con solución analítica como experimentos de laboratorio. Finalmente, el modelo se aplica a casos reales, con especial atención al caso del deslizamiento de 1966 en Aberfan, mostrando como los resultados obtenidos simulan con éxito estos tipos de riesgos naturales. The study developed in this thesis focuses on the modelling of landslides propagation with the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) meshless method which has the great advantage of allowing to deal with large deformation problems by avoiding expensive remeshing operations as happens for mesh methods such as, for example, the Finite Element Method. In this thesis, special attention is given to the role played by rheology and pore water pressure during these natural hazards. The mathematical framework used is based on the v - pw Biot-Zienkiewicz formulation, which represents the behaviour, formulated in terms of soil skeleton velocity and pore water pressure, of the mixture of solid particles and pore water in a saturated media. The governing equations are: • the mass balance equation for the pore water phase, • the momentum balance equation for the pore water phase and the mixture, • the constitutive equation and • a kinematic equation. Landslides, due to their shape and geometrical properties, have small depths in comparison with their length or width, therefore, the mathematical model aforementioned can then be simplified by depth integrating the equations, switching from a 3D to a 2D model, which presents an excellent combination of accuracy, computational costs and simplicity. The proposed model differs from previous depth integrated models by including a sub-model able to provide information on pore water pressure profiles at each computational step of the landslide's propagation. In an effective way, the evolution of the pore water pressure profiles is numerically solved through a set of 1D Finite Differences explicit scheme at each SPH node. This new approach is able to take into account the variation of the pore water pressure due to changes of height, vertical consolidation or changes of total stress. Concerning the constitutive behaviour, one of the main issues when modelling fast landslides is the difficulty to simulate with the same constitutive or rheological model the transition from the triggering phase, where the landslide behaves like a solid, to the propagation phase, where the landslide behaves in a fluid-like manner. In this work thesis, a new rheological model is proposed, based on the Perzyna viscoplastic model, thinking of viscoplasticity as the key to close the gap between the triggering and the propagation phase. In order to validate the mathematical model and the numerical approach, benchmarks and laboratory experiments are reproduced and compared to analytical solutions when possible. Finally, applications to real cases are studied, with particular attention paid to the Aberfan flowslide of 1966, showing how the mathematical model accurately and successfully simulate these kind of natural hazards.

Modelling of short runout propagation landslides and debris flows

This paper proposes an extension of methods used to predict the propagation of landslides having a long runout to smaller landslides with much shorter propagation distances. The method is based on: (1) a depth-integrated mathematical model including the coupling between the soil skeleton and the pore fluids, (2) suitable rheological models describing the relation between the stress and the rate of deformation tensors for fluidised soils and (3) a meshless numerical method, Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics, which separates the computational mesh (or set of computational nodes) from the mesh describing the terrain topography, which is of structured type – thus accelerating search operations. The proposed model is validated using two examples for which there are analytical solutions, and then it is applied to two short runout landslides which happened in Hong Kong in 1995, for which there is available information.

Seismic earth thrust against massive building walls

The problem of earth thrust for a massive building in a seismic environment is analysed. Intertial and kinematic soil-structure interactions are considered by modelling the soil and the structure together. The problem is solved in the frequency domain by using the computer code FLUSH. Results show that the horizontal component of the seismic earth thrust is much greater than that obtained when applying the Mononobe-Okabe theory. This study establishes a set of conclusicns and recommendations for both design and practical purposes, and proposes future lines of investigation.

Global research alliance modelling platform (GRAMP): an open web platform for modelling greenhouse gas emissions from agro-ecosystems

Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) process-based models are important tools for estimating and reporting greenhouse gas emissions and changes in soil C stocks. There is a need for continuous evaluation, development and adaptation of these models to improve scientific understanding, national inventories and assessment of mitigation options across the world. To date, much of the information needed to describe different processes like transpiration, photosynthesis, plant growth and maintenance, above and below ground carbon dynamics, decomposition and nitrogen mineralization. In ecosystem models remains inaccessible to the wider community, being stored within model computer source code, or held internally by modelling teams. Here we describe the Global Research Alliance Modelling Platform (GRAMP), a web-based modelling platform to link researchers with appropriate datasets, models and training material. It will provide access to model source code and an interactive platform for researchers to form a consensus on existing methods, and to synthesize new ideas, which will help to advance progress in this area. The platform will eventually support a variety of models, but to trial the platform and test the architecture and functionality, it was piloted with variants of the DNDC model. The intention is to form a worldwide collaborative network (a virtual laboratory) via an interactive website with access to models and best practice guidelines; appropriate datasets for testing, calibrating and evaluating models; on-line tutorials and links to modelling and data provider research groups, and their associated publications. A graphical user interface has been designed to view the model development tree and access all of the above functions.

Modelling spatial decisión support systems focused on the development of a data warehouse: applying software engineering

Nowadays, organizations have plenty of data stored in DB databases, which contain invaluable information. Decision Support Systems DSS provide the support needed to manage this information and planning médium and long-term ?the modus operandi? of these organizations. Despite the growing importance of these systems, most proposals do not include its total evelopment, mostly limiting itself on the development of isolated parts, which often have serious integration problems. Hence, methodologies that include models and processes that consider every factor are necessary. This paper will try to fill this void as it proposes an approach for developing spatial DSS driven by the development of their associated Data Warehouse DW, without forgetting its other components. To the end of framing the proposal different Engineering Software focus (The Software Engineering Process and Model Driven Architecture) are used, and coupling with the DB development methodology, (and both of them adapted to DW peculiarities). Finally, an example illustrates the proposal.

Greenfield shopping center development. The integration between environmental features, building design and investment analysis at the decision making stage

The Shopping centre is a long term investment in which Greenfield development decisions are often taken based on risks analysis regarding construction costs, location, competition, market and an expected DCF. Furthermore, integration between the building design, project planning, operational costs and investment analysis is not entirely considered by the investor at the decision making stage. The absence of such information tends to produce certain negative impacts on the future running costs and annual maintenance of the building, especially on energy demand and other occupancy expenses paid by the tenants to the landlord. From the investor´s point of view, this blind spot in strategy development will possibly decrease their profit margin as changes in the occupancy expenses[ ] have a direct outcome on the profit margin. In order to try to reduce some higher operating cost components such as energy use and other utility savings as well as their CO2 emissions, quite a few income properties worldwide have some type of environmental label such as BREEAM and LEED. The drawback identified in this labelling is that usually the investments required to get an ecolabel are high and the investor finds no direct evidence that it increases market value. However there is research on certified commercial properties (especially offices) that shows better performance in terms of occupancy rate and rental cost (Warren-Myers, 2012). Additionally, Sayce (2013) says that the certification only provides a quick reference point i.e. the lack of a certificate does not indicate that a building is not sustainable or efficient. Based on the issues described above, this research compares important components of the development stages such as investments costs, concept/ strategy development as well as the current investor income and property value. The subjects for this analysis are a shopping centre designed with passive cooling/bioclimatic strategies evaluated at the decision making stage, a certified regional shopping centre and a non-certified standard regional shopping centre. Moreover, the proposal intends to provide decision makers with some tools for linking green design features to the investment analysis in order to optimize the decision making process when looking into cost savings and design quality.

Assessment of Underground Wine Cellars Using Geographic Information Technologies

Geographic information technologies (GIT) are essential to many fields of research, such as the preservation and dissemination of cultural heritage buildings, a category which includes traditional underground wine cellars. This article presents a methodology based on research carried out on this type of rural heritage building. The data were acquired using the following sensors: EDM, total station, close-range photogrammetry and laser scanning, and subsequently processed with a specific software which was verified for each case, in order to obtain a satisfactory graphic representation of these underground wine cellars. Two key aspects of this work are the accuracy of the data processing and the visualization of these traditional constructions. The methodology includes an application for geovisualizing these traditional constructions on mobile devices in order to contribute to raising awareness of this unique heritage.

BR3: a biologically inspired fish-like robot actuated by SMA-based artificial muscles

Los peces son animales, donde en la mayoría de los casos, son considerados como nadadores muy eficientes y con una alta capacidad de maniobra. En general los peces se caracterizan por su capacidad de maniobra, locomoción silencioso, giros y partidas rápidas y viajes de larga distancia. Los estudios han identificado varios tipos de locomoción que los peces usan para generar maniobras y natación constante. A bajas velocidades la mayoría de los peces utilizan sus aletas pares y / o impares para su locomoción, que ofrecen una mayor maniobrabilidad y mejor eficiencia de propulsión. A altas velocidades la locomoción implica el cuerpo y / o aleta caudal porque esto puede lograr un mayor empuje y aceleración. Estas características pueden inspirar el diseo y fabricación de una piel muy flexible, una aleta caudal mórfica y una espina dorsal no articulada con una gran capacidad de maniobra. Esta tesis presenta el desarrollo de un novedoso pez robot bio-inspirado y biomimético llamado BR3, inspirado en la capacidad de maniobra y nado constante de los peces vertebrados. Inspirado por la morfología de los peces Micropterus salmoides o también conocido como lubina negra, el robot BR3 utiliza su fundamento biológico para desarrollar modelos y métodos matemáticos precisos que permiten imitar la locomoción de los peces reales. Los peces Largemouth Bass pueden lograr un nivel increíble de maniobrabilidad y eficacia de la propulsión mediante la combinación de los movimientos ondulatorios y aletas morficas. Para imitar la locomoción de los peces reales en una contraparte artificial se necesita del análisis de tecnologías de actuación alternativos, como arreglos de fibras musculares en lugar de servo actuadores o motores DC estándar, así como un material flexible que proporciona una estructura continua sin juntas. Las aleaciones con memoria de forma (SMAs) proveen la posibilidad de construir robots livianos, que no emiten ruido, sin motores, sin juntas y sin engranajes. Asi es como un pez robot submarino se ha desarrollado y cuyos movimientos son generados mediante SMAs. Estos actuadores son los adecuados para doblar la espina dorsal continua del pez robot, que a su vez provoca un cambio en la curvatura del cuerpo. Este tipo de arreglo estructural está inspirado en los músculos rojos del pescado, que son usados principalmente durante la natación constante para la flexión de una estructura flexible pero casi incompresible como lo es la espina dorsal de pescado. Del mismo modo la aleta caudal se basa en SMAs y se modifica para llevar a cabo el trabajo necesario. La estructura flexible proporciona empuje y permite que el BR3 nade. Por otro lado la aleta caudal mórfica proporciona movimientos de balanceo y guiada. Motivado por la versatilidad del BR3 para imitar todos los modos de natación (anguilliforme, carangiforme, subcarangiforme y tunniforme) se propone un controlador de doblado y velocidad. La ley de control de doblado y velocidad incorpora la información del ángulo de curvatura y de la frecuencia para producir el modo de natación deseado y a su vez controlar la velocidad de natación. Así mismo de acuerdo con el hecho biológico de la influencia de la forma de la aleta caudal en la maniobrabilidad durante la natación constante se propone un control de actitud. Esta novedoso robot pescado es el primero de su tipo en incorporar sólo SMAs para doblar una estructura flexible continua y sin juntas y engranajes para producir empuje e imitar todos los modos de natación, así como la aleta caudal que es capaz de cambiar su forma. Este novedoso diseo mecatrónico presenta un futuro muy prometedor para el diseo de vehículos submarinos capaces de modificar su forma y nadar mas eficientemente. La nueva metodología de control propuesto en esta tesis proporcionan una forma totalmente nueva de control de robots basados en SMAs, haciéndolos energéticamente más eficientes y la incorporación de una aleta caudal mórfica permite realizar maniobras más eficientemente. En su conjunto, el proyecto BR3 consta de cinco grandes etapas de desarrollo: • Estudio y análisis biológico del nado de los peces con el propósito de definir criterios de diseño y control. • Formulación de modelos matemáticos que describan la: i) cinemática del cuerpo, ii) dinámica, iii) hidrodinámica iv) análisis de los modos de vibración y v) actuación usando SMA. Estos modelos permiten estimar la influencia de modular la aleta caudal y el doblado del cuerpo en la producción de fuerzas de empuje y fuerzas de rotación necesarias en las maniobras y optimización del consumo de energía. • Diseño y fabricación de BR3: i) estructura esquelética de la columna vertebral y el cuerpo, ii) mecanismo de actuación basado en SMAs para el cuerpo y la aleta caudal, iii) piel artificial, iv) electrónica embebida y v) fusión sensorial. Está dirigido a desarrollar la plataforma de pez robot BR3 que permite probar los métodos propuestos. • Controlador de nado: compuesto por: i) control de las SMA (modulación de la forma de la aleta caudal y regulación de la actitud) y ii) control de nado continuo (modulación de la velocidad y doblado). Está dirigido a la formulación de los métodos de control adecuados que permiten la modulación adecuada de la aleta caudal y el cuerpo del BR3. • Experimentos: está dirigido a la cuantificación de los efectos de: i) la correcta modulación de la aleta caudal en la producción de rotación y su efecto hidrodinámico durante la maniobra, ii) doblado del cuerpo para la producción de empuje y iii) efecto de la flexibilidad de la piel en la habilidad para doblarse del BR3. También tiene como objetivo demostrar y validar la hipótesis de mejora en la eficiencia de la natación y las maniobras gracias a los nuevos métodos de control presentados en esta tesis. A lo largo del desarrollo de cada una de las cinco etapas, se irán presentando los retos, problemáticas y soluciones a abordar. Los experimentos en canales de agua estarán orientados a discutir y demostrar cómo la aleta caudal y el cuerpo pueden afectar considerablemente la dinámica / hidrodinámica de natación / maniobras y cómo tomar ventaja de la modulación de curvatura que la aleta caudal mórfica y el cuerpo permiten para cambiar correctamente la geometría de la aleta caudal y del cuerpo durante la natación constante y maniobras. ABSTRACT Fishes are animals where in most cases are considered as highly manoeuvrable and effortless swimmers. In general fishes are characterized for his manoeuvring skills, noiseless locomotion, rapid turning, fast starting and long distance cruising. Studies have identified several types of locomotion that fish use to generate maneuvering and steady swimming. At low speeds most fishes uses median and/or paired fins for its locomotion, offering greater maneuverability and better propulsive efficiency At high speeds the locomotion involves the body and/or caudal fin because this can achieve greater thrust and accelerations. This can inspire the design and fabrication of a highly deformable soft artificial skins, morphing caudal fins and non articulated backbone with a significant maneuverability capacity. This thesis presents the development of a novel bio-inspired and biomimetic fishlike robot (BR3) inspired by the maneuverability and steady swimming ability of ray-finned fishes (Actinopterygii, bony fishes). Inspired by the morphology of the Largemouth Bass fish, the BR3 uses its biological foundation to develop accurate mathematical models and methods allowing to mimic fish locomotion. The Largemouth Bass fishes can achieve an amazing level of maneuverability and propulsive efficiency by combining undulatory movements and morphing fins. To mimic the locomotion of the real fishes on an artificial counterpart needs the analysis of alternative actuation technologies more likely muscle fiber arrays instead of standard servomotor actuators as well as a bendable material that provides a continuous structure without joins. The Shape Memory Alloys (SMAs) provide the possibility of building lightweight, joint-less, noise-less, motor-less and gear-less robots. Thus a swimming underwater fish-like robot has been developed whose movements are generated using SMAs. These actuators are suitable for bending the continuous backbone of the fish, which in turn causes a change in the curvature of the body. This type of structural arrangement is inspired by fish red muscles, which are mainly recruited during steady swimming for the bending of a flexible but nearly incompressible structure such as the fishbone. Likewise the caudal fin is based on SMAs and is customized to provide the necessary work out. The bendable structure provides thrust and allows the BR3 to swim. On the other hand the morphing caudal fin provides roll and yaw movements. Motivated by the versatility of the BR3 to mimic all the swimming modes (anguilliform, caranguiform, subcaranguiform and thunniform) a bending-speed controller is proposed. The bending-speed control law incorporates bend angle and frequency information to produce desired swimming mode and swimming speed. Likewise according to the biological fact about the influence of caudal fin shape in the maneuverability during steady swimming an attitude control is proposed. This novel fish robot is the first of its kind to incorporate only SMAs to bend a flexible continuous structure without joints and gears to produce thrust and mimic all the swimming modes as well as the caudal fin to be morphing. This novel mechatronic design is a promising way to design more efficient swimming/morphing underwater vehicles. The novel control methodology proposed in this thesis provide a totally new way of controlling robots based on SMAs, making them more energy efficient and the incorporation of a morphing caudal fin allows to perform more efficient maneuvers. As a whole, the BR3 project consists of five major stages of development: • Study and analysis of biological fish swimming data reported in specialized literature aimed at defining design and control criteria. • Formulation of mathematical models for: i) body kinematics, ii) dynamics, iii) hydrodynamics, iv) free vibration analysis and v) SMA muscle-like actuation. It is aimed at modelling the e ects of modulating caudal fin and body bend into the production of thrust forces for swimming, rotational forces for maneuvering and energy consumption optimisation. • Bio-inspired design and fabrication of: i) skeletal structure of backbone and body, ii) SMA muscle-like mechanisms for the body and caudal fin, iii) the artificial skin, iv) electronics onboard and v) sensor fusion. It is aimed at developing the fish-like platform (BR3) that allows for testing the methods proposed. • The swimming controller: i) control of SMA-muscles (morphing-caudal fin modulation and attitude regulation) and ii) steady swimming control (bend modulation and speed modulation). It is aimed at formulating the proper control methods that allow for the proper modulation of BR3’s caudal fin and body. • Experiments: it is aimed at quantifying the effects of: i) properly caudal fin modulation into hydrodynamics and rotation production for maneuvering, ii) body bending into thrust generation and iii) skin flexibility into BR3 bending ability. It is also aimed at demonstrating and validating the hypothesis of improving swimming and maneuvering efficiency thanks to the novel control methods presented in this thesis. This thesis introduces the challenges and methods to address these stages. Waterchannel experiments will be oriented to discuss and demonstrate how the caudal fin and body can considerably affect the dynamics/hydrodynamics of swimming/maneuvering and how to take advantage of bend modulation that the morphing-caudal fin and body enable to properly change caudal fin and body’ geometry during steady swimming and maneuvering.

Creating and modelling personal socio-economic networks in on-line banking

The banking industry is observing how new competitors threaten its millennial business model by targeting unbanked people, offering new financial services to their customer base, and even enabling new channels for existing services and customers. The knowledge on users, their behaviour, and expectations become a key asset in this new context. Well aware of this situation, the Center for Open Middleware, a joint technology center created by Santander Bank and Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, has launched a set of initiatives to allow the experimental analysis and management of socio-economic information. PosdataP2P service is one of them, which seeks to model the economic ties between the holders of university smart cards, leveraging on the social networks the holders are subscribed to. In this paper we describe the design principles guiding the development of the system, its architecture and some implementation details.

First 20 years of DNDC: Model evolution and GRAMP.

The DNDC (DeNitrification and DeComposition) model was first developed by Li et al. (1992) as a rain event-driven process-orientated simulation model for nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and nitrogen gas emissions from the agricultural soils in the U.S. Over the last 20 years, the model has been modified and adapted by various research groups around the world to suit specific purposes and circumstances. The Global Research Alliance Modelling Platform (GRAMP) is a UK-led initiative for the establishment of a purposeful and credible web-based platform initially aimed at users of the DNDC model. With the aim of improving the predictions of soil C and N cycling in the context of climate change the objectives of GRAMP are to: 1) to document the existing versions of the DNDC model; 2) to create a family tree of the individual DNDC versions; 3) to provide information on model use and development; and 4) to identify strengths, weaknesses and potential improvements for the model.