Momentum risk: An approach following the correlations between active stocks

The momentum anomaly has been widely documented in the literature. However, there are still many issues where there is no consensus and puzzles left unexplained. One is that strategies based on momentum present a level of risk that is inconsistent with the diversification that it offers. Moreover, recent studies indicate that this risk is variable over time and mostly strategy-specific. This work project hypothesises and proves that this evidence is explained by the portfolio constitution of the momentum strategy over time, namely the covariance and correlation between companies in the top and down deciles and across them.

A comparative review of risk based portfolio allocations: An empirical study throughout rising yields

Since the financial crisis, risk based portfolio allocations have gained a great deal in popularity. This increase in popularity is primarily due to the fact that they make no assumptions as to the expected return of the assets in the portfolio. These portfolios implicitly put risk management at the heart of asset allocation and thus their recent appeal. This paper will serve as a comparison of four well-known risk based portfolio allocation methods; minimum variance, maximum diversification, inverse volatility and equally weighted risk contribution. Empirical backtests will be performed throughout rising interest rate periods from 1953 to 2015. Additionally, I will compare these portfolios to more simple allocation methods, such as equally weighted and a 60/40 asset-allocation mix. This paper will help to answer the question if these portfolios can survive in a rising interest rate environment.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.

Assessment of NDVI, land surface temperature and precipitation anomalies for drought monitoring in Bayankhongor province, Mongolia

During the last decade Mongolia’s region was characterized by a rapid increase of both severity and frequency of drought events, leading to pasture reduction. Drought monitoring and assessment plays an important role in the region’s early warning systems as a way to mitigate the negative impacts in social, economic and environmental sectors. Nowadays it is possible to access information related to the hydrologic cycle through remote sensing, which provides a continuous monitoring of variables over very large areas where the weather stations are sparse. The present thesis aimed to explore the possibility of using NDVI as a potential drought indicator by studying anomaly patterns and correlations with other two climate variables, LST and precipitation. The study covered the growing season (March to September) of a fifteen year period, between 2000 and 2014, for Bayankhongor province in southwest Mongolia. The datasets used were MODIS NDVI, LST and TRMM Precipitation, which processing and analysis was supported by QGIS software and Python programming language. Monthly anomaly correlations between NDVI-LST and NDVI-Precipitation were generated as well as temporal correlations for the growing season for known drought years (2001, 2002 and 2009). The results show that the three variables follow a seasonal pattern expected for a northern hemisphere region, with occurrence of the rainy season in the summer months. The values of both NDVI and precipitation are remarkably low while LST values are high, which is explained by the region’s climate and ecosystems. The NDVI average, generally, reached higher values with high precipitation values and low LST values. The year of 2001 was the driest year of the time-series, while 2003 was the wet year with healthier vegetation. Monthly correlations registered weak results with low significance, with exception of NDVI-LST and NDVI-Precipitation correlations for June, July and August of 2002. The temporal correlations for the growing season also revealed weak results. The overall relationship between the variables anomalies showed weak correlation results with low significance, which suggests that an accurate answer for predicting drought using the relation between NDVI, LST and Precipitation cannot be given. Additional research should take place in order to achieve more conclusive results. However the NDVI anomaly images show that NDVI is a suitable drought index for Bayankhongor province.

Epidemiology of multiple congenital anomalies in Europe: a EUROCAT population-based registry study.

BACKGROUND: This study describes the prevalence, associated anomalies, and demographic characteristics of cases of multiple congenital anomalies (MCA) in 19 population-based European registries (EUROCAT) covering 959,446 births in 2004 and 2010. METHODS: EUROCAT implemented a computer algorithm for classification of congenital anomaly cases followed by manual review of potential MCA cases by geneticists. MCA cases are defined as cases with two or more major anomalies of different organ systems, excluding sequences, chromosomal and monogenic syndromes. RESULTS: The combination of an epidemiological and clinical approach for classification of cases has improved the quality and accuracy of the MCA data. Total prevalence of MCA cases was 15.8 per 10,000 births. Fetal deaths and termination of pregnancy were significantly more frequent in MCA cases compared with isolated cases (p < 0.001) and MCA cases were more frequently prenatally diagnosed (p < 0.001). Live born infants with MCA were more often born preterm (p < 0.01) and with birth weight < 2500 grams (p < 0.01). Respiratory and ear, face, and neck anomalies were the most likely to occur with other anomalies (34% and 32%) and congenital heart defects and limb anomalies were the least likely to occur with other anomalies (13%) (p < 0.01). However, due to their high prevalence, congenital heart defects were present in half of all MCA cases. Among males with MCA, the frequency of genital anomalies was significantly greater than the frequency of genital anomalies among females with MCA (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Although rare, MCA cases are an important public health issue, because of their severity. The EUROCAT database of MCA cases will allow future investigation on the epidemiology of these conditions and related clinical and diagnostic problems.

Stable isotope composition of smectite in suevites at the Ries crater, Germany: Implications for hydrous alteration of impactites

The 24-km diameter Ries crater, Germany, exhibits well-preserved crater filling and surficial melt-rich breccia deposits that are believed to have been altered by post-impact hydrothermal fluids. The alteration mineralogy of the crater filling breccias is characterized by clay (smectite, chlorite) and a zeolite assemblage, and secondary clay phases (smectite, minor halloysite) in surficial melt-bearing breccia deposits. Using stable isotope analysis of secondary smectitic clay fractions, evidence of significant hydrous alteration of impactites at large water/rock ratios was found. The estimated fluid temperatures, using data derived by delta(18)O and delta D fractionation, suggest smectite precipitation in surficial breccias in equilibrium with meteoric fluids at temperatures 16 +/- 5 degrees C in agreement with the long-term variation of modern precipitation in the area. The stable isotope composition of smectite in crater-fill breccia, however, suggests a trend of monotonously increasing temperatures from 43 to 112 degrees C. with increasing depth through the breccia sequence. This demonstrates a different origin of alteration and temperature distribution for the surficial and crater filling melt-bearing impact breccias in the Ries crater. Our results suggest that the inverted structure of hydrothermal systems observed in some terrestrial impact craters, including the Ries crater, could indicate the initial configuration of a thermal anomaly in the crater filling sequence, but which is replaced with a normal hydrothermal convection in crater proper, during the course of post-impact cooling. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Paper 2: EUROCAT public health indicators for congenital anomalies in Europe.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this article is to present the specific public health indicators recently developed by EUROCAT that aim to summarize important aspects of the public health impact of congenital anomalies in a few quantitative measures. METHODS: The six indicators are: (1) congenital anomaly perinatal mortality, (2) congenital anomaly prenatal diagnosis prevalence, (3) congenital anomaly termination of pregnancy, (4) Down syndrome livebirth prevalence, (5) congenital anomaly pediatric surgery, and (6) neural tube defects (NTD) total prevalence. Data presented for this report pertained to all cases (livebirths, fetal deaths, or stillbirths after 20 weeks of gestation and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly [TOPFA]) of congenital anomaly from 27 full member registries of EUROCAT that could provide data for at least 3 years during the period 2004 to 2008. Prevalence of anomalies, prenatal diagnosis, TOPFA, pediatric surgery, and perinatal mortality were calculated per 1000 births. RESULTS: The overall perinatal mortality was approximately 1.0 per 1000 births for EUROCAT registries with almost half due to fetal and the other half due to first week deaths. There were wide variations in perinatal mortality across the registries with the highest rates observed in Dublin and Malta, registries in countries where TOPFA are illegal, and in Ukraine. The overall perinatal mortality across EUROCAT registries slightly decreased between 2004 and 2008 due to a decrease in first week deaths. The prevalence of TOPFA was fairly stable at about 4 per 1000 births. There were variations in livebirth prevalence of cases typically requiring surgery across the registries; however, for most registries this prevalence was between 3 and 5 per 1000 births. Prevalence of NTD decreased by about 10% from 1.05 in 2004 to 0.94 per 1000 in 2008. CONCLUSION: It is hoped that by publishing the data on EUROCAT indicators, the public health importance of congenital anomalies can be clearly summarized to policy makers, the need for accurate data from registries emphasized, the need for primary prevention and treatment services highlighted, and the impact of current services measured.

Optical properties of organic superconductor K-(BETS)2FeBr4 /

K-(BETS)2FeBr4 is a quasi-2D charge transfer organic metal with interesting electronic and magnetic properties. It undergoes a transition to an antiferromagnetic (AF) state at ambient pressure at the Neel temperature (T^^) = 2.5 K, as well as to a superconducting (SC) state at 1.1 K [1]. The temperature dependence of the electrical resistivity shows a small decrease at T;v indicating the resistivity drops as a result of the onset of the ordering of Fe'*''" spins. A sharp drop in the resistivity at 1.1 K is due to its superconducting transition. The temperature dependence of the susceptibility indicates an antiferromagnetic spin structure with the easy axis parallel to the a-axis. The specific heat at zero-field shows a large peak at about 2.4 K, which corresponds to the antiferromagnetic transition temperature (Tat) and no anomaly is observed around the superconducting transition temperature (1.1 K) demonstrating that the magnetically ordered state is not destroyed by the appearance of another phase transition (the superconducting transition) in the 7r-electron layers [1], [2]. This work presents an investigation of how the low frequency electromagnetic response is affected by the antiferromagnetic and superconducting states, as well as the onset of strong correlation. The location of the easy axis of three samples was determined and polarized thermal reflectance measurements of these «-(BETS)2FeBr4 samples oriented with their vertical axis along the a- and c axes were then carried out using a *He refrigerator cryostat and a Martin-Puplett type polarizing interferometer at various temperatures (T = 0.5 K, 1.4 K. 1.9 K, 2.8 K) above and below the superconducting state and/or antiferromagnetic state. Comparison of the SC state to the normal state along the o- and c-axes indicates a rising thermal reflectance at low frequencies (below 10 cm"' ) which may be a manifestation of the superconducting energy gap. A dip-Hke feature is detected at low frequencies (below 15 cm"') in the thermal reflectance plots which probe the antiferromagnetic state along the two axes, and may be due to the opening of a gap in the excitation spectrum as a result of the antiferromagnetism. In another set of experiments, thermal reflectance measurements carried out along the a- and c-axes at higher temperatures (10 K-80 K) show that the reflectivity decreases with increasing temperature to 60 K (the coherence temperature) above which it increases again. Comparison of the thermal reflectance plots along the a- and c-axes at higher temperatures reveals an anisotropy between these two axes. The Hagen-Rubens thermal reflectance plots corresponding to an average over the ac-plane were calculated using experimental hterature resistivity values. Comparison of the Hagen-Rubens plots with the experimental thermal reflectance along the a- and c-axes indicates that both exhibit the general trend of a decrease in thermal reflectance with increasing frequency, however the calculated Hagen-Rubens thermal reflectance at different temperatures is much lower than the experimental curves.

Specific heat of UPdâ Siâ

The specific heat of single-crystal U Pd2 Si2 has been studied using both the step heating and continious heating methods for the temperature range 2 to 250 K. Successive phase transitions at Tl = 136I< and T2 = 108I< are reported, which are consistent with current publications. The transition at 40K, which was previously reported, has not been detected. Recent published elastic neutron scattering data, magnetic susceptibility and resistivity results suggest that U Pd2 Si2 may be a heavy fermion compound, however, the electronic specific heat coefficient I (= 18.97 ;~), obtained from the specific heat Cv measurements, is smaller than that of the conventional heavy fermion system. The Debye temperature of U Pd2Si2 is found to be 116.55K. The possibility is discussed that the maximum in CIT in the low-temperature range 2 to 4K corresponds to Schottky anomaly induced by localized magnetic impurities .

Landscape geochemical investigations in the vicinity of a lead deposit near Snertingdal, southern Norway

Landscape geochemical investigations were conducted upon portions of a natural uniform landscape in southern Norway. This consisted of sampling both soil profile samples and spruce tree twigs for the analysis of twelve chemical elements. These elements were cobalt, copper, nickel, lead, zinc, manganese, magnesium, iron, calcium, sodium, potassium and aluminum which were determined by atomic absorption analysis on standardized extraction techniques for both organic and inorganic materials. Two "landscape traverses" were chosen for a comparative study of the effects of varying landscape parameters upon the trace element distribution patterns throughout the landscape traverses. The object of this study was to test this method of investigation and the concept of an ideal uniform landscape under Norwegian conditions. A "control traverse" was established to represent uniform landscape conditions typical of the study area and was used to determine "normal" or average trace element distribution patterns. A "signal traverse" was selected nearby over an area of lead mineralization where the depth to bedrock is very small. The signal traverse provided an area of similar landscape conditions to those of the control traverse with significant differences in the bedrock configuration and composition. This study was also to determine the effect of the bedrock mineralization upon the distribution patterns of the twelve chemical elements within the major components of the two landscape traverses (i.e. soil profiles and tree branches). The lead distribution within the soils of the signal traverse showed localized accumulations of lead within the overburden with maximum values occurring within the organic A horizon of soil profile #10. Above average concentrations of lead were common within the signal traverse, however, the other elements studied were not significantly different from those averages determined throughout the soils of the control traverse. The spruce twig samples did not have corresponding accumulations of lead near the soil lead anomaly. This is attributable to the very localized nature of the lead dispersion pattern within the soils. This approach to the study of the geochemistry of a natural landscape was effective in establishing: a) average or "normal" trace element distribution patterns b) local variations in the landscape morphology and c) the effect of unusually high lead concentrations upon the geochemistry of the landscape (i.e. within the soil profiles and tree branches). This type of study provides the basis for further more intensive studies and serves only as a first approximation of the behaviour of elements within a natural landscape.

Étude de la négativité de discordance dans l'amusie congénitale

L’amusie congénitale est un trouble neuro-développemental qui s’exprime par un déficit de discrimination tonale fine. Le cerveau des amusiques ne répond pas aux petites différences de hauteur, tel que révélé par l’absence de la composante de potentiel évoqué P3b, qui est associée aux processus de discrimination tonale tardifs et conscients. Peu d’études se sont penchées sur les mécanismes précoces et préconscients de discrimination tonale chez les amusiques, qui peuvent être étudiés par l’entremise d’une composante de potentiel évoqué appelée la négativité de discordance (MMN). Certaines études ont démontré qu’il est possible d’enregistrer la MMN pendant la présentation d’un film avec la trame sonore en simultané aux sons visant à évoquer la composante. Toutefois, une étude a démontré que la présentation de la trame sonore réduisait l’amplitude de la MMN, sans néanmoins clarifier la nature de l’effet d’interférence en cause. Les objectifs du présent projet sont d’abord, d’investiguer les effets à l’origine de la réduction d’amplitude de la MMN observée lors de la présentation d’un film avec la trame sonore, puis d’évaluer cette même composante chez les amusiques. La première étude visait à déterminer si un effet d’interférence attentionnelle ou acoustique était en cause dans la réduction d’amplitude observée sur la MMN lors de la présentation de la trame sonore d’un film. Les résultats ont montré qu’un effet de masquage acoustique, attribuable à la trame sonore, était responsable de la réduction d’amplitude de la MMN, cette dernière augmentant au fur et à mesure que l’intensité sonore de la trame du film était réduite. La seconde étude a été conduite dans le but d’investiguer la MMN chez les amusiques et de vérifier si le complexe d’ondes anormales N2b-P3b, observé en réponse aux grandes différences tonales chez les amusiques, pouvait être attribuable à un effet de saillance des stimuli. Dans un premier temps, nous avons comparé la MMN des amusiques à celle des contrôles, puis nous avons modifié le paradigme expérimental visant à évoquer la N2b-P3b en ajustant les probabilités d’occurrence des sons présentés aux contrôles en fonction des sons perçus par les amusiques. Les résultats ont montré que le cerveau des amusiques parvient à discriminer les différences de hauteur à un niveau précoce et préconscient, tel que révélé par une MMN normale, mais que les réponses cérébrales plus tardives, associées au processus de discrimination des hauteurs conscient, sont anormales chez les amusiques, et ce, uniquement pour les petites différences de hauteur, tel que révélé par l’absence de la P3b. En conclusion, ces résultats démontrent que l’amplitude de la MMN est affectée de manière significative par la présentation de la trame sonore d’un film et que cela est attribuable à un effet d’interférence acoustique. Dans un deuxième temps, nous avons démontré que les mécanismes précoces et préconscients de discrimination tonale sont préservés chez les amusiques, et que le déficit sous-jacent à l’amusie congénitale est attribuable à une atteinte du processus de discrimination tonale fine associé à un niveau de traitement cérébral tardif et conscient, le complexe d’ondes anormales N2b-P3b étant pour sa part attribuable à un effet de saillance des stimuli.

The roles of TL1A and Pno1 in the pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis

La polyarthrite rhumatoïde (PR) est une maladie auto-immune chronique. Elle est caractérisée par une inflammation persistante touchant de multiples petites articulations, causant douleurs, rougeurs, gonflements et déformations. Des études menées auprès de patients et d’animaux ont démontré que certains auto-anticorps, cytokines et enzymes tissue-déstructives sont des médiateurs importants dans le développement de la PR. Au cours des deux dernières décennies, les traitements de fond (DMARDs en anglais) ont été démontrés très efficaces pour traiter la PR. D'autre part, des effets secondaires ont été rapportés pour ces traitements, par exemple l'augmentation du risque d'infections opportunistes. L’objectif de ce travail est d’acquérir des connaissances sur le rôle du TL1A (TNF-like molécule 1 A; TNFSF15) et son partenaire Nob1 (Pno1 ; YOR145c) dans la pathogenèse de la PR afin de découvrir de nouveaux médicaments contre ces molécules dans l'avenir. TL1A est un membre de la famille du TNF. Il déclenche des signaux co-stimulateurs via le récepteur de mort 3 (DR3) et induit la prolifération ainsi que la production des cytokines pro inflammatoires par les lymphocytes. Des données multiples suggèrent l'implication de la cascade TL1A-DR3 dans plusieurs maladies auto-immunes. Donc, nous avons proposé les hypothèses suivantes:1) la production locale de TL1A dans les articulations est un composant d’un cercle vicieux qui aggrave la PR; 2) dans la PR, la production de TL1A dans les organes lymphoïde augmente la production d’auto-anticorps pathogénique. Au cours de ce travail, nous avons démontré que la TL1A aggrave la maladie chez les souris où l’arthrite a été induite par le collagène (AIC). Par ailleurs, nous avons constaté que l’expression de TL1A est élevée dans les tissus atteints de PR ainsi que dans les ganglions lymphatiques drainant de la souris AIC. Mécaniquement, nous avons découvert que la TL1A est induite par le TNF-α et IL-17 produits par les cellules T in vitro. Ces résultats montrent directement que les TL1A-DR3 jouent un rôle essentiel dans la pathogenèse de la PR. De plus, afin de poursuivre notre étude, la TL1A a été génétiquement supprimée dans les souris (TL1A KO). Nous avons montré que les souris TL1A KO n’ont aucune anomalie apparente et aucun dysfonctionnement du système immunitaire dans des conditions normales. Cependant, ces souris manifestent des AIC améliorées et une réduction significative des niveaux d'anticorps, anti-collagène du type II i dans le sérum. Nous avons trouvé que les ganglions lymphatiques de drainage (dLNs) de souris KO étaient plus petites avec une cellularité inférieure comparativement aux souris WT de 14 jours après l’immunisation. De plus, nous avons découvert que le DR3 a été exprimé par les cellules plasmatiques dans l’étape de la différenciation terminale et ces cellules surviennent mieux en présence de TL1A. La conclusion de cette étude apporte des nouvelles connaissances sur le rôle de TL1A qui amplifie les réponses humorales d’AIC. Nous avons suggéré que TL1A pourrait augmenter la réponse d’initiation d'anticorps contre collagène II (CII) ainsi que prolonger la survie des cellules plasmatiques. Une autre molécule qui nous intéresse est Pno1. Des études antérieures menées chez la levure ont suggéré que Pno1 est essentielle pour la néogénèse du protéasome et du ribosome Le protéasome étant crucial pour la différenciation terminale des cellules plasmatiques pendant les réponses humorales chez les mammifères, nous avons donc supposé que Pno1 joue un rôle dans la production d'anticorps pathogenique dans la PR via la voie du protéasome. Nous avons donc généré des souris génétiquement modifiées pour Pno1 afin d’étudier la fonction de Pno1 in vivo. Cependant, une mutation non-sens dans le Pno1 provoque une létalité embryonnaire à un stade très précoce chez les souris. D'autre part, une réduction de 50% de Pno1 ou une surexpression de Pno1 n’ont aucun effet ni sur le fonctionnent des cellules T et B, ni sur les activités du protéasome ainsi que sur la réponse humorale dans l’AIC. Ces résultats suggèrent que Pno1 est une molécule essentielle sans redondance. Par conséquent, il n’est pas une cible appropriée pour le développement de médicaments thérapeutiques. En conclusion, nos études ont révélé que la TL1A n’est pas essentielle pour maintenir les fonctions du système immunitaire dans des conditions normales. En revanche, il joue un rôle critique dans la pathogenèse de la PR en favorisant l'inflammation locale et la réponse humorale contre des auto-antigènes. Par conséquent, une inhibition de la TL1A pourrait être une stratégie thérapeutique pour le traitement de la PR. Au contraire, Pno1 est essentiel pour la fonction normale des cellules. Une délétion totale pourrait entraîner des conséquences graves. Il n’est pas une cible appropriée pour développer des médicaments de la PR.

AN INVESTIGATION ON AIR-SEA INTERACTION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN DURING CONTRASTING MONSOONS

The study is undertaken with an objective to investigate the linkage between air-sea fluxes in the Indian Ocean and monsoon forcing. Since the monsoon activity is linked to fluxes, the variability of surface marine meteorological fields under the variable monsoon conditions is also studied. The very objective of the present study is to document various sea surface parameters of the Indian Ocean and to examine the anomalies found in them. Hence it is attempted to relate the anomaly to the variability of monsoon over India, highlighting the occasion of contrasting monsoon periods. The analysis of anomalies of surface meteorological fields such as SST, wind speed and direction, sea level pressure and cloud cover for contrasting monsoons are also studied. During good monsoon years, the pressure anomalies are negative indicating a fall in SLP during pre-monsoon and monsoon months. The interaction of the marine atmosphere with tropical Indian Ocean and its influence on ISMR continue to be an area of active research.

Phase transitions in lithium ammonium sulfate below room temperature: An ultrasonic study

A detailed ultrasonic study of the elastic properties of lithium ammonium sulfate ~LiNH4SO4! or LAS has been carried out below room temperature. The elastic constants of LAS at room temperature are reported. The discrepancy present in earlier elastic constant data associated with the different choice of axes for this orthorhombic system are clarified. The results of the temperature variation study down to 220 K confirm the ferroelastic phase transition at 285 K and establish a thermal hysteresis of about 2.5 K between the cooling and heating cycles. Results of the investigation on the suspected weak phase transition at 256 K suggest that this transition occurs at 242 K on cooling and at 256 K on heating, thus having a thermal hysteresis of about 14 K. However, since the observed elastic anomaly for this transition is very small, the nature of this transition still remains unclear

Intraseasonal oscillation of total precipitable water over North Indian Ocean and its application in the diagnostic study of coastal rainfall

TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) is reported to be a useful sensor to measure the atmospheric and oceanic parameters even in cloudy conditions. Vertically integrated specific humidity, Total Precipitable Water (TPW) retrieved from the water vapour absorption channel (22GHz.) along with 10m wind speed and rain rate derived from TMI is used to investigate the moisture variation over North Indian Ocean. Intraseasonal Oscillations (ISO) of TPW during the summer monsoon seasons 1998, 1999, and 2000 over North Indian Ocean is explored using wavelet analysis. The dominant waves in TPW during the monsoon periods and the differences in ISO over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are investigated. The northward propagation of TPW anomaly and its coherence with the coastal rainfall is also studied. For the diagnostic study of heavy rainfall spells over the west coast, the intrusion of TPW over the North Arabian Sea is seen to be a useful tool.