Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Effect of simvastatin on physiological and biological outcomes in patients undergoing esophagectomy: a randomised placebo controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: To test whether simvastatin improves physiological and biological outcomes in patients undergoing esophagectomy.

BACKGROUND: One-lung ventilation during esophagectomy is associated with inflammation, alveolar epithelial and systemic endothelial injury, and the development of acute lung injury (ALI). Statins that modify many of the underlying processes are a potential therapy to prevent ALI.

METHODS: We conducted a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial in patients undergoing esophagectomy. Patients received simvastatin 80 mg or placebo enterally for 4 days preoperatively and 7 days postoperatively. The primary end point was pulmonary dead space (Vd/Vt) at 6 hours after esophagectomy or before extubation. Inflammation was assessed by plasma cytokines and intraoperative exhaled breath condensate pH; alveolar type 1 epithelial injury was assessed by plasma receptor for advanced glycation end products and systemic endothelial injury by the urine albumin-creatinine ratio.

RESULTS: Thirty-nine patients were randomized; 8 patients did not undergo surgery and were excluded. Fifteen patients received simvastatin and 16 received placebo. There was no difference in Vd/Vt or other physiological outcomes. Simvastatin resulted in a significant decrease in plasma MCP-1 on day 3 and reduced exhaled breath condensate acidification. Plasma receptor for advanced glycation end products was significantly lower in the simvastatin-treated group, as was the urine albumin-creatinine ratio on day 7 postsurgery. ALI developed in 4 patients in the placebo group and no patients in the simvastatin group although this difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.1).

CONCLUSIONS: In this proof of concept study, pretreatment with simvastatin in esophagectomy decreased biomarkers of inflammation as well as pulmonary epithelial and systemic endothelial injury.

Simultaneous Gas Storage and Catalytic Gas Production Using Zeolites-A New Concept for Extending Lifetime Gas Delivery

Copper containing MCM-41 materials can be used to both store gaseous nitric oxide and to catalytically produce nitric oxide from nitrite. The active species for the reaction is copper (I). Addition of cysteine to the solution in contact with the material has different effects depending on how much Cu(I) is present. This is a new method of extending the lifetime of gas delivery from a gas storage material.

Modelling local-scale determinants and the probability of microarthropod species occurrence in Antarctic soils

Soil fauna in the extreme conditions of Antarctica consists of a few microinvertebrate species patchily distributed at different spatial scales. Populations of the prostigmatic mite Stereotydeus belli and the collembolan Gressittacantha terranova from northern Victoria Land (Antarctica) were used as models to study the effect of soil properties on microarthropod distributions. In agreement with the general assumption that the development and distribution of life in these ecosystems is mainly controlled by abiotic factors, we found that the probability of occurrence of S. belli depends on soil moisture and texture and on the sampling period (which affects the general availability of water); surprisingly, none of the analysed variables were significantly related to the G. terranova distribution. Based on our results and literature data, we propose a theoretical model that introduces biotic interactions among the major factors driving the local distribution of collembolans in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cloning and characterisation of three novel disintegrin precursors from the venoms of three Atheris species: Atheris chlorechis, Atheris nitschei and Atheris squamigera

Snake venom constitutes one of the most complex mixtures of naturally-occurring toxic proteins/polypeptides and a large number of these possess very profound biological activities. Disintegrins, that are commonly found in viper venoms, are low molecular weight proteins that usually contain an -Arg-Gly-Asp- (-RGD-) motif that is known to be involved in cell adhesion ligand recognition, binding specifically to cell surface integrin receptors and also exhibiting platelet anti-aggregation activity.

Here, we report for the first time, the successful cloning of three cDNAs encoding disintegrin precursors from lyophilised venom-derived libraries of Atheris chlorechis, Atheris nitschei and Atheris squamigera, respectively. All of these disintegrins belong to the short-coding class and all exhibit high degrees of structural identity, both in their amino acid sequences and in the arrangement of their functional domains. Mass spectrometric analyses of the HPLC-separated/in-gel digested venom proteins was performed to characterise the mature disintegrins as expressed in the venom proteome. Studies on both the structures and conserved sites within these disintegrins are of considerable theoretical interest in the field of biological evolution and in the development of new research tools or novel templates for drug design.

ELIMED:A new hadron therapy concept based on laser driven ion beams

Laser accelerated proton beams have been proposed to be used in different research fields. A great interest has risen for the potential replacement of conventional accelerating machines with laser-based accelerators, and in particular for the development of new concepts of more compact and cheaper hadrontherapy centers. In this context the ELIMED (ELI MEDical applications) research project has been launched by INFN-LNS and ASCR-FZU researchers within the pan-European ELI-Beamlines facility framework. The ELIMED project aims to demonstrate the potential clinical applicability of optically accelerated proton beams and to realize a laser-accelerated ion transport beamline for multi-disciplinary user applications. In this framework the eye melanoma, as for instance the uveal melanoma normally treated with 62 MeV proton beams produced by standard accelerators, will be considered as a model system to demonstrate the potential clinical use of laser-driven protons in hadrontherapy, especially because of the limited constraints in terms of proton energy and irradiation geometry for this particular tumour treatment. Several challenges, starting from laser-target interaction and beam transport development up to dosimetry and radiobiology, need to be overcome in order to reach the ELIMED final goals. A crucial role will be played by the final design and realization of a transport beamline capable to provide ion beams with proper characteristics in terms of energy spectrum and angular distribution which will allow performing dosimetric tests and biological cell irradiation. A first prototype of the transport beamline has been already designed and other transport elements are under construction in order to perform a first experimental test with the TARANIS laser system by the end of 2013. A wide international collaboration among specialists of different disciplines like Physics, Biology, Chemistry, Medicine and medical doctors coming from Europe, Japan, and the US is growing up around the ELIMED project with the aim to work on the conceptual design, technical and experimental realization of this core beamline of the ELI Beamlines facility. © 2013 SPIE.

Electrostatic supersolitons in three-species plasmas

Superficially, electrostatic potential profiles of supersolitons look like those of traditional solitons. However, their electric field profiles are markedly different, having additional extrema on the wings of the standard bipolar structure. This new concept was recently pointed out in the literature for a plasma model with five species. Here, it is shown that electrostatic supersolitons are not an artefact of exotic, complicated plasma models, but can exist even in three-species plasmas and are likely to occur in space plasmas. Further, a methodology is given to delineate their existence domains in a systematic fashion by determining the specific limiting factors. © 2013 American Institute of Physics.

Idiosyncratic species effects confound size-based predictions of responses to climate change

Understanding and predicting the consequences of warming for complex ecosystems and indeed individual species remains a major ecological challenge. Here, we investigated the effect of increased seawater temperatures on the metabolic and consumption rates of five distinct marine species. The experimental species reflected different trophic positions within a typical benthic East Atlantic food web, and included a herbivorous gastropod, a scavenging decapod, a predatory echinoderm, a decapod and a benthic-feeding fish. We examined the metabolism-body mass and consumption-body mass scaling for each species, and assessed changes in their consumption efficiencies. Our results indicate that body mass and temperature effects on metabolism were inconsistent across species and that some species were unable to meet metabolic demand at higher temperatures, thus highlighting the vulnerability of individual species to warming. While body size explains a large proportion of the variation in species' physiological responses to warming, it is clear that idiosyncratic species responses, irrespective of body size, complicate predictions of population and ecosystem level response to future scenarios of climate change. © 2012 The Royal Society.

A generalized functional response for predators that switch between multiple prey species

We develop a theory for the food intake of a predator that can switch between multiple prey species. The theory addresses empirical observations of prey switching and is based on the behavioural assumption that a predator tends to continue feeding on prey that are similar to the prey it has consumed last, in terms of, e.g., their morphology, defences, location, habitat choice, or behaviour. From a predator's dietary history and the assumed similarity relationship among prey species, we derive a general closed-form multi-species functional response for describing predators switching between multiple prey species. Our theory includes the Holling type II functional response as a special case and makes consistent predictions when populations of equivalent prey are aggregated or split. An analysis of the derived functional response enables us to highlight the following five main findings. (1) Prey switching leads to an approximate power-law relationship between ratios of prey abundance and prey intake, consistent with experimental data. (2) In agreement with empirical observations, the theory predicts an upper limit of 2 for the exponent of such power laws. (3) Our theory predicts deviations from power-law switching at very low and very high prey-abundance ratios. (4) The theory can predict the diet composition of a predator feeding on multiple prey species from diet observations for predators feeding only on pairs of prey species. (5) Predators foraging on more prey species will show less pronounced prey switching than predators foraging on fewer prey species, thus providing a natural explanation for the known difficulties of observing prey switching in the field. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tackling Invasive Alien Species in Europe: the Top 20 Issues

Globally, Invasive Alien Species (IAS) are considered to be one of the major threats to native biodiversity, with the World Conservation Union (IUCN) citing their impacts as ?immense, insidious, and usually irreversible?. It is estimated that 11% of the c. 12,000 alien species in Europe are invasive, causing environmental, economic and social damage; and it is reasonable to expect that the rate of biological invasions into Europe will increase in the coming years. In order to assess the current position regarding IAS in Europe and to determine the issues that were deemed to be most important or critical regarding these damaging species, the international Freshwater Invasives - Networking for Strategy (FINS) conference was convened in Ireland in April 2013. Delegates from throughout Europe and invited speakers from around the world were brought together for the conference. These comprised academics, applied scientists, policy makers, politicians, practitioners and representative stakeholder groups. A horizon scanning and issue prioritization approach was used by in excess of 100 expert delegates in a workshop setting to elucidate the Top 20 IAS issues in Europe. These issues do not focus solely on freshwater habitats and taxa but relate also to marine and terrestrial situations. The Top 20 issues that resulted represent a tool for IAS management and should also be used to support policy makers as they prepare European IAS legislation.

Predicting the predatory impacts of the “demon shrimp” Dikerogammarus haemobaphes, on native and previously introduced species

Biological invasions continue to exert pressure on ecosystems worldwide and we thus require methods that can help understand and predict the impacts of invasive species, on both native species and previously established invaders. Comparing laboratory derived functional responses among invasive and native predators has emerged as one such method, providing a robust proxy for field impacts. We used this method to examine the likely impacts of the Ponto–Caspian amphipod Dikerogammarus haemobaphes, known as the “demon shrimp”, a little investigated invader in European freshwaters that has recently established in the British Isles. We compared the functional responses on two prey species of D. haemobaphes with two other amphipod species: Dikerogammarus villosus, a congeneric invasive with well-documented impacts on macro-invertebrate communities and a native amphipod, Gammarus pulex. Prey species were native Chironomus sp. and the invasive Chelicorophium curvispinum, a tube-building amphipod also originating from the Ponto–Caspian region. D. villosus showed higher Type II functional responses towards both prey species than did D. haemobaphes and G. pulex, with the latter two predators exhibiting similar impacts on the native prey. However, D. haemobaphes had higher functional responses towards the invasive C. curvispinum than did G. pulex, both when prey individuals were tubeless and resident in their protective mud tubes. Thus, we demonstrate that functionally equivalent invasive congeners can show significantly different impacts on prey, regardless of shared evolutionary history. We also show that some predatory invaders can have impacts on native prey equivalent to native predator impacts, but that they can also exert significant impacts on previously introduced prey. We discuss the importance of invasion history and prey identity when attempting to understand and predict the impacts of new invaders.

Origin of British and Irish mammals: disparate post-glacial colonisation and species introductions

Global climate changes during the Quaternary reveal much about broader evolutionary effects of environmental change. Detailed regional studies reveal how evolutionary lineages and novel communities and ecosystems, emerge through glacial bottlenecks or from refugia. There have been significant advances in benthic imaging and dating, particularly with respect to the movements of the British (Scottish) and Irish ice sheets and associated changes in sea level during and after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Ireland has been isolated as an island for approximately twice as long as Britain with no evidence of any substantial, enduring land bridge between these islands after ca 15 kya. Recent biogeographical studies show that Britain's mammal community is akin to those of southern parts of Scandinavia, The Netherlands and Belgium, but the much lower mammal species richness of Ireland is unique and needs explanation. Here, we consider physiographic, archaeological, phylogeographical i.e. molecular genetic, and biological evidence comprising ecological, behavioural and morphological data, to review how mammal species recolonized western Europe after the LGM with emphasis on Britain and, in particular, Ireland. We focus on why these close neighbours had such different mammal fauna in the early Holocene, the stability of ecosystems after LGM subject to climate change and later species introductions.

There is general concordance of archaeological and molecular genetic evidence where data allow some insight into history after the LGM. Phylogeography reveals the process of recolonization, e.g. with respect to source of colonizers and anthropogenic influence, whilst archaeological data reveal timing more precisely through carbon dating and stratigraphy. More representative samples and improved calibration of the ‘molecular clock’ will lead to further insights with regards to the influence of successive glaciations. Species showing greatest morphological, behavioural and ecological divergence in Ireland in comparison to Britain and continental Europe, were also those which arrived in Ireland very early in the Holocene either with or without the assistance of people. Cold tolerant mammal species recolonized quickly after LGM but disappeared, potentially as a result of a short period of rapid warming. Other early arrivals were less cold tolerant and succumbed to the colder conditions during the Younger Dryas or shortly after the start of the Holocene (11.5 kya), or the area of suitable habitat was insufficient to sustain a viable population especially in larger species. Late Pleistocene mammals in Ireland were restricted to those able to colonize up to ca 15 kya, probably originating from adjacent areas of unglaciated Britain and land now below sea level, to the south and west (of Ireland). These few, early colonizers retain genetic diversity which dates from before the LGM. Late Pleistocene Ireland, therefore, had a much depleted complement of mammal species in comparison to Britain.

Mammal species, colonising predominantly from southeast and east Europe occupied west Europe only as far as Britain between ca 15 and 8 kya, were excluded from Ireland by the Irish and Celtic Seas. Smaller species in particular failed to colonise Ireland. Britain being isolated as an island from ca. 8 kya has similar species richness and composition to adjacent lowland areas of northwest continental Europe and its mammals almost all show strongest genetic affinity to populations in neighbouring continental Europe with a few retaining genotypes associated with earlier, western lineages.

The role of people in the deliberate introduction of mammal species and distinct genotypes is much more significant with regards to Ireland than Britain reflecting the larger species richness of the latter and its more enduring land link with continental Europe. The prime motivation of early people in moving mammals was likely to be resource driven but also potentially cultural; as elsewhere, people exploring uninhabited places introduced species for food and the materials they required to survive. It is possible that the process of introduction of mammals to Ireland commenced during the Mesolithic and accelerated with Neolithic people. Irish populations of these long established, introduced species show some unique genetic variation whilst retaining traces of their origins principally from Britain but in some cases, Scandinavia and Iberia. It is of particular interest that they may retain genetic forms now absent from their source populations. Further species introductions, during the Bronze and late Iron Ages, and Viking and Norman invasions, follow the same pattern but lack the time for genetic divergence from their source populations. Accidental introductions of commensal species show considerable genetic diversity based on numerous translocations along the eastern Atlantic coastline. More recent accidental and deliberate introductions are characterised by a lack of genetic diversity other than that explicable by more than one introduction.

The substantial advances in understanding the postglacial origins and genetic diversity of British and Irish mammals, the role of early people in species translocations, and determination of species that are more recently introduced, should inform policy decisions with regards to species and genetic conservation. Conservation should prioritise early, naturally recolonizing species and those brought in by early people reflecting their long association with these islands. These early arrivals in Britain and Ireland and associated islands show genetic diversity that may be of value in mitigating anthropogenic climate change across Europe. In contrast, more recent introductions are likely to disturb ecosystems greatly, lead to loss of diversity and should be controlled. This challenge is more severe in Ireland where the number and proportion of invasive species from the 19th century to the present has been greater than in Britain.

Stressor intensity determines antagonistic interactions between species invasion and multiple stressor effects on ecosystem functioning

Biological invasions, nutrient enrichment and ocean warming are known to threaten biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. The independent effects of these ecological stressors are well studied, however, we lack understanding of their cumulative effects, which may be additive, antagonistic or synergistic. For example, the impacts of biological invasions are often determined by environmental context, which suggests that the effects of invasive species may vary with other stressors such as pollution or climate change. This study examined the effects of an invasive seaweed (Sargassum muticum) on the structure and functioning of a benthic marine assemblage and tested explicitly whether these effects varied with nutrient enrichment and ocean warming. Overall, the presence of Sargassum muticum increased assemblage productivity rates and warming altered algal assemblage structure, which was characterised by a decrease in kelp and an increase in ephemeral green algae. The effects of Sargassum muticum on total algal biomass accumulation, however, varied with nutrient enrichment and warming producing antagonistic cumulative effects on total algal biomass accumulation. These findings show that the nature of stressor interactions may vary with stressor intensity and among response variables, which leads to less predictable consequences for the structure and functioning of communities.

Historical data reveal power-law dispersal patterns of invasive aquatic species

Understanding how invasive species spread is of particular concern in the current era of globalisation and rapid environmental change. The occurrence of super-diffusive movements within the context of Lévy flights has been discussed with respect to particle physics, human movements, microzooplankton, disease spread in global epidemiology and animal foraging behaviour. Super-diffusive movements provide a theoretical explanation for the rapid spread of organisms and disease, but their applicability to empirical data on the historic spread of organisms has rarely been tested. This study focuses on the role of long-distance dispersal in the invasion dynamics of aquatic invasive species across three contrasting areas and spatial scales: open ocean (north-east Atlantic), enclosed sea (Mediterranean) and an island environment (Ireland). Study species included five freshwater plant species, Azolla filiculoides, Elodea canadensis, Lagarosiphon major, Elodea nuttallii and Lemna minuta; and ten species of marine algae, Asparagopsis armata, Antithamnionella elegans, Antithamnionella ternifolia, Codium fragile, Colpomenia peregrina, Caulerpa taxifolia, Dasysiphonia sp., Sargassum muticum, Undaria pinnatifida and Womersleyella setacea. A simulation model is constructed to show the validity of using historical data to reconstruct dispersal kernels. Lévy movement patterns similar to those previously observed in humans and wild animals are evident in the re-constructed dispersal pattern of invasive aquatic species. Such patterns may be widespread among invasive species and could be exacerbated by further development of trade networks, human travel and environmental change. These findings have implications for our ability to predict and manage future invasions, and improve our understanding of the potential for spread of organisms including infectious diseases, plant pests and genetically modified organisms.