The time series convergence of dispersion in financial analysts' forecasts

Finansanalytiker har en stor betydelse för finansmarknaderna, speciellt igenom att förmedla information genom resultatprognoser. Typiskt är att analytiker i viss grad är oeniga i sina resultatprognoser, och det är just denna oenighet analytiker emellan som denna avhandling studerar. Då ett företag rapporterar förluster tenderar oenigheten gällande ett företags framtid att öka. På ett intuitivt plan är det lätt att tolka detta som ökad osäkerhet. Det är även detta man finner då man studerar analytikerrapporter - analytiker ser ut att bli mer osäkra då företag börjar gå med förlust, och det är precis då som även oenigheten mellan analytikerna ökar. De matematisk-teoretiska modeller som beskriver analytikers beslutsprocesser har däremot en motsatt konsekvens - en ökad oenighet analytiker emellan kan endast uppkomma ifall analytikerna blir säkrare på ett individuellt plan, där den drivande kraften är asymmetrisk information. Denna avhandling löser motsägelsen mellan ökad säkerhet/osäkerhet som drivkraft bakom spridningen i analytikerprognoser. Genom att beakta mängden publik information som blir tillgänglig via resultatrapporter är det inte möjligt för modellerna för analytikers beslutsprocesser att ge upphov till de nivåer av prognosspridning som kan observeras i data. Slutsatsen blir därmed att de underliggande teoretiska modellerna för prognosspridning är delvis bristande och att spridning i prognoser istället mer troligt följer av en ökad osäkerhet bland analytikerna, i enlighet med vad analytiker de facto nämner i sina rapporter. Resultaten är viktiga eftersom en förståelse av osäkerhet runt t.ex. resultatrapportering bidrar till en allmän förståelse för resultatrapporteringsmiljön som i sin tur är av ytterst stor betydelse för prisbildning på finansmarknader. Vidare används typiskt ökad prognosspridning som en indikation på ökad informationsasymmetri i redovisningsforskning, ett fenomen som denna avhandling därmed ifrågasätter.

Oxidative stress in the latissimus dorsi muscle of diabetic rats

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of experimental diabetes on the oxidant and antioxidant status of latissimus dorsi (LD) muscles of male Wistar rats (220 ± 5 g, N = 11). Short-term (5 days) diabetes was induced by a single injection of streptozotocin (STZ, 50 mg/kg, iv; glycemia >300 mg/dl). LD muscle of STZ-diabetic rats presented higher levels of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) and chemiluminescence (0.36 ± 0.02 nmol/mg protein and 14706 ± 1581 cps/mg protein) than LD muscle of normal rats (0.23 ± 0.04 nmol/mg protein and 7389 ± 1355 cps/mg protein). Diabetes induced a 92% increase in catalase and a 27% increase in glutathione S-transferase activities in LD muscle. Glutathione peroxidase activity was reduced (58%) in STZ-diabetic rats and superoxide dismutase activity was similar in LD muscle of both groups. A positive correlation was obtained between catalase activity and the oxidative stress of LD, as evaluated in terms of TBARS (r = 0.78) and by chemiluminescence (r = 0.89). Catalase activity also correlated inversely with glutathione peroxidase activity (r = 0.79). These data suggest that an increased oxidative stress in LD muscle of diabetic rats may be related to skeletal muscle myopathy.

Myocardial antioxidant and oxidative stress changes due to sex hormones

The purpose of the present study was to examine myocardial antioxidant and oxidative stress changes in male and female rats in the presence of physiological sex hormone concentrations and after castration. Twenty-four 9-week-old Wistar rats were divided into four groups of 6 animals each: 1) sham-operated females, 2) castrated females, 3) sham-operated males, and 4) castrated males. When testosterone and estrogen levels were measured by radioimmunoassay, significant differences were observed between the castrated and control groups (both males and females), demonstrating the success of castration. Progesterone and catalase levels did not change in any group. Control male rats had higher levels of glutathione peroxidase (50%) and lower levels of superoxide dismutase (SOD, 14%) than females. Control females presented increased levels of SOD as compared to the other groups. After castration, SOD activity decreased by 29% in the female group and by 14% in the male group as compared to their respective controls. Lipid peroxidation (LPO) was assessed to evaluate oxidative damage to cardiac membranes by two different methods, i.e., TBARS and chemiluminescence. LPO was higher in male controls compared to female controls when evaluated by both methods, TBARS (360%) and chemiluminescence (46%). Castration induced a 200% increase in myocardial damage in females as determined by TBARS and a 20% increase as determined by chemiluminescence. In males, castration did not change LPO levels. These data suggest that estrogen may have an antioxidant role in heart muscle, while testosterone does not.

Lipid peroxidation and total radical-trapping potential of the lungs of rats submitted to chronic and sub-chronic stress

Exposure to stress induces a cluster of physiological and behavioral changes in an effort to maintain the homeostasis of the organism. Long-term exposure to stress, however, has detrimental effects on several cell functions such as the impairment of antioxidant defenses leading to oxidative damage. Oxidative stress is a central feature of many diseases. The lungs are particularly susceptible to lesions by free radicals and pulmonary antioxidant defenses are extensively distributed and include both enzymatic and non-enzymatic systems. The aim of the present study was to determine lipid peroxidation and total radical-trapping potential (TRAP) changes in lungs of rats submitted to different models of chronic stress. Adult male Wistar rats weighing 180-230 g were submitted to different stressors (variable stress, N = 7) or repeated restraint stress for 15 (N = 10) or 40 days (N = 6) and compared to control groups (N = 10 each). Lipid peroxidation levels were assessed by thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS), and TRAP was measured by the decrease in luminescence using the 2-2'-azo-bis(2-amidinopropane)-luminol system. Chronic variable stress induced a 51% increase in oxidative stress in lungs (control group: 0.037 ± 0.002; variable stress: 0.056 ± 0.007, P < 0.01). No difference in TBARS was observed after chronic restraint stress, but a significant 57% increase in TRAP was presented by the group repeatedly restrained for 15 days (control group: 2.48 ± 0.42; stressed: 3.65 ± 0.16, P < 0.05). We conclude that different stressors induce different effects on the oxidative status of the organism.

Peripheral markers of oxidative stress in chronic mercuric chloride intoxication

The present study was designed to evaluate the time course changes in peripheral markers of oxidative stress in a chronic HgCl2 intoxication model. Twenty male adult Wistar rats were treated subcutaneously daily for 30 days and divided into two groups of 10 animals each: Hg, which received HgCl2 (0.16 mg kg-1 day-1), and control, receiving the same volume of saline solution. Blood was collected at the first, second and fourth weeks of Hg administration to evaluate lipid peroxidation (LPO), total radical trapping antioxidant potential (TRAP), and superoxide dismutase (Cu,Zn-SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), glutathione-S-transferase (GST), and catalase (CAT). HgCl2 administration induced a rise (by 26%) in LPO compared to control (143 ± 10 cps/mg hemoglobin) in the second week and no difference was found at the end of the treatment. At that time, GST and GPx were higher (14 and 24%, respectively) in the Hg group, and Cu,Zn-SOD was lower (54%) compared to control. At the end of the treatment, Cu,Zn-SOD and CAT were higher (43 and 10%, respectively) in the Hg group compared to control (4.6 ± 0.3 U/mg protein; 37 ± 0.9 pmol/mg protein, respectively). TRAP was lower (69%) in the first week compared to control (43.8 ± 1.9 mM Trolox). These data provide evidence that HgCl2 administration is accompanied by systemic oxidative damage in the initial phase of the process, which leads to adaptive changes in the antioxidant reserve, thus decreasing the oxidative injury at the end of 30 days of HgCl2 administration. These results suggest that a preventive treatment with antioxidants would help to avoid oxidative damage in subjects with chronic intoxication.

The role of adrenergic receptor polymorphisms in heart failure

The main function of the cardiac adrenergic system is to regulate cardiac work both in physiologic and pathologic states. A better understanding of this system has permitted the elucidation of its role in the development and progression of heart failure. Regardless of the initial insult, depressed cardiac output results in sympathetic activation. Adrenergic receptors provide a limiting step to this activation and their sustained recruitment in chronic heart failure has proven to be deleterious to the failing heart. This concept has been confirmed by examining the effect of ß-blockers on the progression of heart failure. Studies of adrenergic receptor polymorphisms have recently focused on their impact on the adrenergic system regarding its adaptive mechanisms, susceptibilities and pharmacological responses. In this article, we review the function of the adrenergic system and its maladaptive responses in heart failure. Next, we discuss major adrenergic receptor polymorphisms and their consequences for heart failure risk, progression and prognosis. Finally, we discuss possible therapeutic implications resulting from the understanding of polymorphisms and the identification of individual genetic characteristics.

Hemodialysis improves endothelial venous function in end-stage renal disease

The objective of the present study was to determine the acute effect of hemodialysis on endothelial venous function and oxidative stress. We studied 9 patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD), 36.8 ± 3.0 years old, arterial pressure 133.8 ± 6.8/80.0 ± 5.0 mmHg, time on dialysis 55.0 ± 16.6 months, immediately before and after a hemodialysis session, and 10 healthy controls matched for age and gender. Endothelial function was assessed by the dorsal hand vein technique using graded local infusion of acetylcholine (endothelium-dependent venodilation, EDV) and sodium nitroprusside (endothelium-independent venodilation). Oxidative stress was evaluated by measuring protein oxidative damage (carbonyls) and antioxidant defense (total radical trapping antioxidant potential - TRAP) in blood samples. All patients were receiving recombinant human erythropoietin for at least 3 months and were not taking nitrates or a-receptor antagonists. EDV was significantly lower in ESRD patients before hemodialysis (65.6 ± 10.5) vs controls (109.6 ± 10.8; P = 0.010) and after hemodialysis (106.6 ± 15.7; P = 0.045). Endothelium-independent venodilation was similar in all comparisons performed. The hemodialysis session significantly decreased TRAP (402.0 ± 53.5 vs 157.1 ± 28.3 U Trolox/µL plasma; P = 0.001). There was no difference in protein damage comparing ESRD patients before and after hemodialysis. The magnitude of change in the EDV was correlated negatively with the magnitude of change in TRAP (r = -0.70; P = 0.037). These results suggest that a hemodialysis session improves endothelial venous function, in association with an antioxidant effect.

The search for circadian clock components in humans: new perspectives for association studies

Individual circadian clocks entrain differently to environmental cycles (zeitgebers, e.g., light and darkness), earlier or later within the day, leading to different chronotypes. In human populations, the distribution of chronotypes forms a bell-shaped curve, with the extreme early and late types _ larks and owls, respectively _ at its ends. Human chronotype, which can be assessed by the timing of an individual's sleep-wake cycle, is partly influenced by genetic factors - known from animal experimentation. Here, we review population genetic studies which have used a questionnaire probing individual daily timing preference for associations with polymorphisms in clock genes. We discuss their inherent limitations and suggest an alternative approach combining a short questionnaire (Munich ChronoType Questionnaire, MCTQ), which assesses chronotype in a quantitative manner, with a genome-wide analysis (GWA). The advantages of these methods in comparison to assessing time-of-day preferences and single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping are discussed. In the future, global studies of chronotype using the MCTQ and GWA may also contribute to understanding the influence of seasons, latitude (e.g., different photoperiods), and climate on allele frequencies and chronotype distribution in different populations.

Fine-tuning of defensive behaviors in the dorsal periaqueductal gray by atypical neurotransmitters

This paper presents an up-to-date review of the evidence indicating that atypical neurotransmitters such as nitric oxide (NO) and endocannabinoids (eCBs) play an important role in the regulation of aversive responses in the periaqueductal gray (PAG). Among the results supporting this role, several studies have shown that inhibitors of neuronal NO synthase or cannabinoid receptor type 1 (CB1) receptor agonists cause clear anxiolytic responses when injected into this region. The nitrergic and eCB systems can regulate the activity of classical neurotransmitters such as glutamate and γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) that control PAG activity. We propose that they exert a ‘fine-tuning’ regulatory control of defensive responses in this area. This control, however, is probably complex, which may explain the usually bell-shaped dose-response curves observed with drugs that act on NO- or CB1-mediated neurotransmission. Even if the mechanisms responsible for this complex interaction are still poorly understood, they are beginning to be recognized. For example, activation of transient receptor potential vanilloid type-1 channel (TRPV1) receptors by anandamide seems to counteract the anxiolytic effects induced by CB1 receptor activation caused by this compound. Further studies, however, are needed to identify other mechanisms responsible for this fine-tuning effect.

Pleiotropic effects of simvastatin in physically trained ovariectomized rats

This study tested the hypothesis that simvastatin treatment can improve cardiovascular and autonomic functions and membrane lipoperoxidation, with an increased effect when applied to physically trained ovariectomized rats. Ovariectomized rats were divided into sedentary, sedentary+simvastatin and trained+simvastatin groups (n = 8 each). Exercise training was performed on a treadmill for 8 weeks and simvastatin (5 mg/kg) was administered in the last 2 weeks. Blood pressure (BP) was recorded in conscious animals. Baroreflex sensitivity was evaluated by the tachycardic and bradycardic responses to BP changes. Cardiac vagal and sympathetic effects were determined using methylatropine and propranolol. Oxidative stress was evaluated based on heart and liver lipoperoxidation using the chemiluminescence method. The simvastatin-treated groups presented reduced body weight and mean BP (trained+simvastatin = 99 ± 2 and sedentary+simvastatin = 107 ± 2 mmHg) compared to the sedentary group (122 ± 1 mmHg). Furthermore, the trained group showed lower BP and heart rate compared to the other groups. Tachycardic and bradycardic responses were enhanced in both simvastatin-treated groups. The vagal effect was increased in the trained+simvastatin group and the sympathetic effect was decreased in the sedentary+simvastatin group. Hepatic lipoperoxidation was reduced in sedentary+simvastatin (≈21%) and trained+simvastatin groups (≈57%) compared to the sedentary group. Correlation analysis involving all animals demonstrated that cardiac lipoperoxidation was negatively related to the vagal effect (r = -0.7) and positively correlated to the sympathetic effect (r = 0.7). In conclusion, improvement in cardiovascular and autonomic functions associated with a reduction of lipoperoxidation with simvastatin treatment was increased in trained ovariectomized rats.

A meta-analysis of probiotics for preventing necrotizing enterocolitis in preterm neonates

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is one of the most common acquired diseases of the gastrointestinal tract in preterm infants. Some randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) have indicated that probiotics may potentially lower the incidence of NEC and mortality. However, debate still remains about the safety of probiotics and their influence on normal infant growth. We performed this meta-analysis to assess the safety and benefits of probiotic supplementation in preterm infants. We searched in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases for English references, and in Wanfang, VIP, and CNKI databases for Chinese references. Ultimately, 27 RCTs (including 9 Chinese articles) were incorporated into this meta-analysis. Relative risk (RR) and weighted mean difference (WMD) were calculated using a random-effects or fixed-effects model, depending on the data type and heterogeneity. A total of 6655 preterm infants, including the probiotic group (n=3298) and the placebo group (n=3357), were eligible for inclusion in this meta-analysis. For Bell stage ≥I and gestational age <37 weeks, risk of NEC incidence was significantly lower in the probiotic group [RR=0.35, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.27-0.44, P<0.00001]. For Bell stage ≥II or gestational age <34 weeks, there were likewise significant differences between the probiotic and placebo groups concerning NEC incidence (RR=0.34, 95%CI=0.25-0.48, P<0.00001; and RR=0.39, 95%CI=0.27-0.56, P<0.00001). Risk of death was significantly reduced in the probiotic group (RR=0.58, 95%CI=0.46-0.75, P<0.0001). In contrast, there was no significant difference concerning the risk of sepsis (RR=0.94, 95%CI=0.83-1.06, P=0.31). With respect to weight gain and the age at which infants reached full feeds, no significant differences were found between the probiotic and placebo groups (WMD=1.07, 95%CI=−0.21-2.34, P=0.10; and WMD=−1.66, 95%CI=−3.6-0.27, P=0.09). This meta-analysis has shown that, regardless of gestational age and NEC stage, probiotic supplementation could significantly reduce the risk of NEC in preterm infants. Analysis also indicated that such supplementation did not increase the incidence risk of sepsis or of mortality. Finally, the study showed that probiotic supplementation may have no adverse effect on normal feeding and growth.

Bioproteção de lingüiça de frango

O presente trabalho teve como objetivo utilizar culturas bioprotetoras para inibir o desenvolvimento de microrganismos indesejáveis, na elaboração de lingüiça de frango com boas características sensoriais, durante seu período de armazenamento a 8°C. As lingüiças de frango foram elaboradas partindo da mesma massa básica (controle), e adicionando a cultura Elce e as culturas Bactoferm B2 e a Bactoferm S-SX. As análises realizadas foram: contagem de bactérias láticas, contagem de microrganismos psicrotróficos, contagem de Gram negativos, contagem de Staphylococcus aureus e contagem de Clostridios Sulfitos Redutores; análise sensorial e determinação de pH. Não houve desenvolvimento de Staphylococcus aureus e Clostridios Sulfitos Redutores. Alta contagem de bactérias láticas foi observada nas amostras de lingüiça de frango tratadas, devido à adição das culturas bioprotetoras. O pH destas, manteve-se com valores ligeiramente inferiores as lingüiças controle. Entretanto, as lingüiças de frango tratadas com a cultura Elce apresentaram menor desenvolvimento de microrganismos Gram negativos, sendo que no final do período de armazenamento a contagem estava aproximadamente dois ciclos logarítmicos inferior as do controle, indicando que o emprego desta cultura bioprotetora contribuiu para uma melhor qualidade microbiológica deste produto cárneo. As amostras tratadas com a cultura Bactoferm B2 e Bactoferm S-Sx apresentaram uma pequena inibição microbiana em relação ao controle, enquanto que a cultura Elce apresentou maior ação antimicrobiana. As culturas bioprotetoras melhoraram as características sensoriais das lingüiças de frango cruas, quando comparadas ao controle. Depois de serem assadas essas diferenças não foram observadas.

Comparação do crescimento de Saccharomyces boulardii em fermentador por batelada tipo air lift e shaker

Os fermentadores tipo air lift oferecem vantagens tais como: eficiente homogeneização dos componentes, baixo cisalhamento e economia de energia, pois o meio é agitado pelo processo de aeração, sem necessidade de agitação mecânica. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a cinética de crescimento de Saccharomyces boulardii neste fermentador, com aeração de 1 e 1,5 vvm (volume de ar por volume de meio, por minuto), comparada com o crescimento em frascos agitados em shaker, visando a futura aplicação deste fermentador, em escala industrial. Os resultados indicaram que houve uma diminuição do pH com o consumo da glicose do meio, a qual foi totalmente consumida até o final da fase exponencial, de 5 e 6 horas para o shaker e o air lift, respectivamente. Após este período houve uma alteração na velocidade de crescimento de S. boulardii, em ambos os equipamentos, indicando uma possível mudança na fonte de carbono utilizada, uma vez que toda a glicose foi consumida após estes períodos. Os valores de velocidades específicas de crescimento foram semelhantes para o shaker e air-lift com 1,0 vvm, porém inferiores ao air-lift com 1,5 vvm, indicando que neste último reator há possibilidades de se conseguir uma velocidade de produção celular maior, dependendo apenas da eficiência de oxigenação oferecida.

Efeito de uma sessão de hemodiálise sobre o estresse oxidativo sistêmico de pacientes renais crônicos terminais

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a repercussão de uma sessão de hemodiálise (HD) sobre o estresse oxidativo sistêmico de pacientes renais crônicos. MÉTODOS E RESULTADOS: Foram avaliados 17 pacientes (10 mulheres) com média de idade de 39,9 ± 13,5 anos em tratamento hemodialítico na Unidade de Nefrologia do HCPA, e o grupo controle formado por 18 indivíduos saudáveis (4 mulheres), com média de idade de 34,8 ± 10,1 anos. O sangue dos doentes renais foi coletado antes e após a sessão de HD. As médias foram analisadas pelo teste t de Student (p < 0,05). Nos eritrócitos, avaliou-se a atividade das enzimas antioxidantes superóxido dismutase (SOD) e catalase (CAT). No plasma, avaliou-se o sistema antioxidante não enzimático por meio da mensuração da capacidade antioxidante total (TRAP). Não houve diferença significativa entre os valores de SOD e CAT antes e após HD. Comparando com o grupo controle, observou-se redução significativa na atividade dessas enzimas. O TRAP apresentou redução significativa após sessão de HD. O dano oxidativo a lipídios de membrana foi avaliado por quimiluminescência (QL), enquanto o dano às proteínas, pelo método das carbonilas. Não houve diferença significativa entre os valores de QL e Carbonilas após HD. Porém, quando comparados com o grupo controle, observou-se diferença significativa indicando maior dano aos lipídios de membrana e às proteínas nos doentes renais. CONCLUSÕES: Pacientes renais crônicos tratados com HD apresentam redução na atividade das enzimas antioxidantes SOD e CAT, bem como dano oxidativo aumentado quando comparado com indivíduos saudáveis e uma sessão de HD não modifica esses níveis.