947 resultados para Bayesian spatial analysis, dengue, socioecological factors


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Background: Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80-300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. Methodology/Principal Findings: The Ross-Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number (R0) estimated employing Ross-Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, the diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protective effect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certain circumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals). Conclusions/Significance: To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate Plasmodium parasites in human populations, the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda should take biodiversity issues into consideration. © 2013 Laporta et al.

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Phylogeographic studies provide an important framework for investigating the mechanisms operating during the earliest stages of speciation, as reproductive barriers can be examined among divergent lineages in a geographic context. We investigated the evolution of early stages of intrinsic postmating isolation among different populations and lineages of Epidendrum denticulatum, a Neotropical orchid distributed across different biomes in South America. We estimated genetic diversity and structure for both nuclear and plastid markers, using a haplotype network, differentiation tests, Bayesian assignment analysis, and divergence time estimates of the main lineages. Reproductive barriers among divergent lineages were examined by analyzing seed viability following reciprocal crossing experiments. Strong plastid phylogeographic structure was found, indicating that E. denticulatum was restricted to multiple refuges during South American forest expansion events. In contrast, significant phylogeographic structure was not found for nuclear markers, suggesting higher gene flow by pollen than by seeds. Large asymmetries in seed set were observed among different plastid genetic groups, suggesting the presence of polymorphic genic incompatibilities associated with cytonuclear interactions. Our results confirm the importance of phylogeographic studies associated with reproductive isolation experiments and suggest an important role for outbreeding depression during the early stages of lineage diversification. © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Pós-graduação em Ciências Cartográficas - FCT

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Pós-graduação em Geologia Regional - IGCE

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Pós-graduação em Psicologia do Desenvolvimento e Aprendizagem - FC