Visual customer segmentation and behavior analysis : a SOM-based approach

Ett ämne som väckt intresse både inom industrin och forskningen är hantering av kundförhållanden (CRM, eng. Customer Relationship Management), dvs. en kundorienterad affärsstrategi där företagen från att ha varit produktorienterade väljer att bli mera kundcentrerade. Numera kan kundernas beteende och aktiviteter lätt registreras och sparas med hjälp av integrerade affärssystem (ERP, eng. Enterprise Resource Planning) och datalager (DW, eng. Data Warehousing). Kunder med olika preferenser och köpbeteende skapar sin egen ”signatur” i synnerhet via användningen av kundkort, vilket möjliggör mångsidig modellering av kundernas köpbeteende. För att få en översikt av kundernas köpbeteende och deras lönsamhet, används ofta kundsegmentering som en metod för att indela kunderna i grupper utgående från deras likheter. De mest använda metoderna för kundsegmentering är analytiska modeller konstruerade för en viss tidsperiod. Dessa modeller beaktar inte att kundernas beteende kan förändras med tiden. I föreliggande avhandling skapas en holistisk översikt av kundernas karaktär och köpbeteende som utöver de konventionella segmenteringsmodellerna även beaktar dynamiken i köpbeteendet. Dynamiken i en kundsegmenteringsmodell innefattar förändringar i segmentens struktur och innehåll, samt förändringen av individuella kunders tillhörighet i ett segment (s.k migrationsanalyser). Vardera förändringen modelleras, analyseras och exemplifieras med visuella datautvinningstekniker, främst med självorganiserande kartor (SOM, eng. Self-Organizing Maps) och självorganiserande tidskartor (SOTM), en vidareutveckling av SOM. Visualiseringen anteciperas underlätta tolkningen av identifierade mönster och göra processen med kunskapsöverföring mellan den som gör analysen och beslutsfattaren smidigare. Asiakkuudenhallinta (CRM) eli organisaation muuttaminen tuotepainotteisesta asiakaskeskeiseksi on herättänyt mielenkiintoa niin yliopisto- kuin yritysmaailmassakin. Asiakkaiden käyttäytymistä ja toimintaa pystytään nykyään helposti tallentamaan ja varastoimaan toiminnanohjausjärjestelmien ja tietovarastojen avulla; asiakkaat jättävät jatkuvasti piirteistään ja ostokäyttäytymisestään kertovia tietojälkiä, joita voidaan analysoida. On tavallista, että asiakkaat poikkeavat toisistaan eri tavoin, ja heidän mieltymyksensä kuten myös ostokäyttäytymisensä saattavat olla hyvinkin erilaisia. Asiakaskäyttäytymisen monimuotoisuuteen ja tuottavuuteen paneuduttaessa käytetäänkin laajalti asiakassegmentointia eli asiakkaiden jakamista ryhmiin samankaltaisuuden perusteella. Perinteiset asiakassegmentoinnin ratkaisut ovat usein yksittäisiä analyyttisia malleja, jotka on tehty tietyn aikajakson perusteella. Tämän vuoksi ne monesti jättävät huomioimatta sen, että asiakkaiden käyttäytyminen saattaa ajan kuluessa muuttua. Tässä väitöskirjassa pyritäänkin tarjoamaan holistinen kuva asiakkaiden ominaisuuksista ja ostokäyttäytymisestä tarkastelemalla kahta muutosvoimaa tiettyyn aikarajaukseen perustuvien perinteisten segmentointimallien lisäksi. Nämä kaksi asiakassegmentointimallin dynamiikkaa ovat muutokset segmenttien rakenteessa ja muutokset yksittäisten asiakkaiden kuulumisessa ryhmään. Ensimmäistä dynamiikkaa lähestytään ajallisen asiakassegmentoinnin avulla, jossa visualisoidaan ajan kuluessa tapahtuvat muutokset segmenttien rakenteissa ja profiileissa. Toista dynamiikkaa taas lähestytään käyttäen nk. segmenttisiirtymien analyysia, jossa visuaalisin keinoin tunnistetaan samantyyppisesti segmentistä toiseen vaihtavat asiakkaat. Visualisoinnin tehtävänä on tukea havaittujen kaavojen tulkitsemista sekä helpottaa tiedonsiirtoa analysoijan ja päättäjien välillä. Visuaalisia tiedonlouhintamenetelmiä, kuten itseorganisoivia karttoja ja niiden laajennuksia, käytetään osoittamaan näiden menetelmien hyödyllisyys sekä asiakkuudenhallinnassa yleisesti että erityisesti asiakassegmentoinnissa.

Chaotic Behaviour of Active Magnetic Bearing System by Time Series Analysis

Chaotic behaviour is one of the hardest problems that can happen in nonlinear dynamical systems with severe nonlinearities. It makes the system's responses unpredictable. It makes the system's responses to behave similar to noise. In some applications it should be avoided. One of the approaches to detect the chaotic behaviour is nding the Lyapunov exponent through examining the dynamical equation of the system. It needs a model of the system. The goal of this study is the diagnosis of chaotic behaviour by just exploring the data (signal) without using any dynamical model of the system. In this work two methods are tested on the time series data collected from AMB (Active Magnetic Bearing) system sensors. The rst method is used to nd the largest Lyapunov exponent by Rosenstein method. The second method is a 0-1 test for identifying chaotic behaviour. These two methods are used to detect if the data is chaotic. By using Rosenstein method it is needed to nd the minimum embedding dimension. To nd the minimum embedding dimension Cao method is used. Cao method does not give just the minimum embedding dimension, it also gives the order of the nonlinear dynamical equation of the system and also it shows how the system's signals are corrupted with noise. At the end of this research a test called runs test is introduced to show that the data is not excessively noisy.

On Bayesian predictive modeling : with applications on the analysis of chromatography data in forensic investigations

Med prediktion avses att man skattar det framtida värdet på en observerbar storhet. Kännetecknande för det bayesianska paradigmet är att osäkerhet gällande okända storheter uttrycks i form av sannolikheter. En bayesiansk prediktiv modell är således en sannolikhetsfördelning över de möjliga värden som en observerbar, men ännu inte observerad storhet kan anta. I de artiklar som ingår i avhandlingen utvecklas metoder, vilka bl.a. tillämpas i analys av kromatografiska data i brottsutredningar. Med undantag för den första artikeln, bygger samtliga metoder på bayesiansk prediktiv modellering. I artiklarna betraktas i huvudsak tre olika typer av problem relaterade till kromatografiska data: kvantifiering, parvis matchning och klustring. I den första artikeln utvecklas en icke-parametrisk modell för mätfel av kromatografiska analyser av alkoholhalt i blodet. I den andra artikeln utvecklas en prediktiv inferensmetod för jämförelse av två stickprov. Metoden tillämpas i den tredje artik eln för jämförelse av oljeprover i syfte att kunna identifiera den förorenande källan i samband med oljeutsläpp. I den fjärde artikeln härleds en prediktiv modell för klustring av data av blandad diskret och kontinuerlig typ, vilken bl.a. tillämpas i klassificering av amfetaminprover med avseende på produktionsomgångar.

Efficient Optimization Algorithms for Nonlinear Data Analysis

Identification of low-dimensional structures and main sources of variation from multivariate data are fundamental tasks in data analysis. Many methods aimed at these tasks involve solution of an optimization problem. Thus, the objective of this thesis is to develop computationally efficient and theoretically justified methods for solving such problems. Most of the thesis is based on a statistical model, where ridges of the density estimated from the data are considered as relevant features. Finding ridges, that are generalized maxima, necessitates development of advanced optimization methods. An efficient and convergent trust region Newton method for projecting a point onto a ridge of the underlying density is developed for this purpose. The method is utilized in a differential equation-based approach for tracing ridges and computing projection coordinates along them. The density estimation is done nonparametrically by using Gaussian kernels. This allows application of ridge-based methods with only mild assumptions on the underlying structure of the data. The statistical model and the ridge finding methods are adapted to two different applications. The first one is extraction of curvilinear structures from noisy data mixed with background clutter. The second one is a novel nonlinear generalization of principal component analysis (PCA) and its extension to time series data. The methods have a wide range of potential applications, where most of the earlier approaches are inadequate. Examples include identification of faults from seismic data and identification of filaments from cosmological data. Applicability of the nonlinear PCA to climate analysis and reconstruction of periodic patterns from noisy time series data are also demonstrated. Other contributions of the thesis include development of an efficient semidefinite optimization method for embedding graphs into the Euclidean space. The method produces structure-preserving embeddings that maximize interpoint distances. It is primarily developed for dimensionality reduction, but has also potential applications in graph theory and various areas of physics, chemistry and engineering. Asymptotic behaviour of ridges and maxima of Gaussian kernel densities is also investigated when the kernel bandwidth approaches infinity. The results are applied to the nonlinear PCA and to finding significant maxima of such densities, which is a typical problem in visual object tracking.

Bayesian analysis of SEIR epidemic models

This thesis concerns the analysis of epidemic models. We adopt the Bayesian paradigm and develop suitable Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. This is done by considering an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, former Zaïre, 1995 as a case of SEIR epidemic models. We model the Ebola epidemic deterministically using ODEs and stochastically through SDEs to take into account a possible bias in each compartment. Since the model has unknown parameters, we use different methods to estimate them such as least squares, maximum likelihood and MCMC. The motivation behind choosing MCMC over other existing methods in this thesis is that it has the ability to tackle complicated nonlinear problems with large number of parameters. First, in a deterministic Ebola model, we compute the likelihood function by sum of square of residuals method and estimate parameters using the LSQ and MCMC methods. We sample parameters and then use them to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. From the sampled chain from the posterior, we test the convergence diagnostic and confirm the viability of the model. The results show that the Ebola model fits the observed onset data with high precision, and all the unknown model parameters are well identified. Second, we convert the ODE model into a SDE Ebola model. We compute the likelihood function using extended Kalman filter (EKF) and estimate parameters again. The motivation of using the SDE formulation here is to consider the impact of modelling errors. Moreover, the EKF approach allows us to formulate a filtered likelihood for the parameters of such a stochastic model. We use the MCMC procedure to attain the posterior distributions of the parameters of the SDE Ebola model drift and diffusion parts. In this thesis, we analyse two cases: (1) the model error covariance matrix of the dynamic noise is close to zero , i.e. only small stochasticity added into the model. The results are then similar to the ones got from deterministic Ebola model, even if methods of computing the likelihood function are different (2) the model error covariance matrix is different from zero, i.e. a considerable stochasticity is introduced into the Ebola model. This accounts for the situation where we would know that the model is not exact. As a results, we obtain parameter posteriors with larger variances. Consequently, the model predictions then show larger uncertainties, in accordance with the assumption of an incomplete model.

Development and Effect Analysis of the Asteri Consultative Auditing Process - Safety and Security Management in Educational Institutions

The Finnish legislation requires for a safe and secure learning environment. However, the comprehensive, risk based safety and security management (SSM) and the management commitment in the implementation and development of the SSM are not mentioned in the legislation. Multiple institutions, operators and researchers have studied and developed safety and security in educational institutions over the past decade. Typically the approach has been fragmented and without bringing up the importance of the comprehensive SSM. The development needs of the safety and security operations in universities have been studied. However, in universities of applied sciences (UASs) and in elementary schools (ESs), the performance level, strengths and weaknesses of the comprehensive SSM have not been studied. The objective of this study was to develop the comprehensive, risk based SSM of educational institutions by developing the new Asteri consultative auditing process and study its effects on auditees. Furthermore, the performance level in the comprehensive SSM in UASs and ESs were studied using Asteri and the TUTOR model developed by the Keski-Uusimaa Department for Rescue Services. In addition, strengths, development needs and differences were identified. In total, 76 educational institutions were audited between the years 2011 and 2014. The study is based on logical empiricism, and an observational applied research design was used. Auditing, observation and an electronic survey were used for data collection. Statistical analysis was used to analyze the collected information. In addition, thematic analysis was used to analyze the development areas of the organizations mentioned by the respondents in the survey. As one of the main contributions, this research presents the new Asteri consultative auditing process. Organizations with low performance levels on the audited subject benefit the most from the Asteri consultative auditing process. Asteri may be usable in many different types of audits, not only in SSM audits. As a new result, this study provides new knowledge on attitudes related to auditing. According to the research findings, auditing may generate negative attitudes and the auditor should take them into account when planning and preparing for audits. Negative attitudes can be compensated by producing added value, objectivity and positivity for the audit and, thus, improve the positive effects of auditing on knowledge and skills. Moreover, as the results of this study shows, auditing safety and security issues do not increase feelings of insecurity, but rather increase feelings of safety and security when using the new Asteri consultative auditing process with the TUTOR model. The results showed that the SSM in the audited UASs was statistically significantly more advanced than that in the audited ESs. However, there is still room for improvement in the ESs and the UASs as the approach to the SSM was fragmented. It can be assumed that the majority of Finnish UASs and ESs do not likely meet the basic level of the comprehensive, risk based the SSM.

Isolation and characterization of the female sex pheromone of the sugar beet cyst nematode, heterodera schachtii, and an analysis of male precopulatory behaviour /

The sugar beet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, is a major agricultural pest. The disruption of the mating behaviour of this plant parasite in the field may provide a means of biological control, and a subsequent increase in crop yield. The H. schachtii female sex pheromone, which attracts homospecific males, was collected in an aqueous medium and isolated using high performance liquid chromatography. Characterization of the male-attractive material revealed that it was heat stable and water soluble. The aqueous medium conditioned by female H. schachtii was found to be biologically active and stimulated male behaviour in a concentration dependent manner. The activity of the crude pheromone was specific to males of H. schachtii and did not attract second stage juveniles. Results indicated that vanillic acid, a putative nematode pheromone, is not an active component of the H. schachtii sex pheromone. Male H. schachtii exhibited stylet thrusting, a poorly understood behaviour of the male, upon exposure to the female sex pheromone. This behaviour appeared to be associated with mate-finding and was used as a novel indicator of biological activity in bioassays. Serotonin, thought to be involved in the neural control of copulatory behaviour in nematodes, stimulated stylet thrusting. However, the relationship between stylet thrusting induced by the sex pheromone and stylet thrusting induced by serotonin is not clear. Extracellular electrical activity was recorded fi-om the anterior region of H. schachtii males during stylet thrusting, and appeared to be associated with this behaviour. The isolation of the female sex pheromone of H. schachtii may, ultimately, lead to the structural identification and synthesis of the active substance for use in a novel biological control strategy.

Emergence of normative beliefs legitimizing antisocial behaviour in adolescents : the roles of monitoring, attachment, and temperament /

Beliefs about the rightness or wrongness of engaging in various antisocial acts, referred to here as nonnative beliefs legitimizing antisocial behaviour (nblab), have been shown to playa role in the emergence oflater antisocial behaviour. The current study represented an attempt to understand whether parental monitoring and parent-child attachment have differential relationships with these antisocial nonnative beliefs in adolescents of different temperaments. The participants, 7135 adolescents in 25 high schools (ages 10- 18 years, M = 15.7) completed a wide-ranging questionnaire as part of the broad Youth Lifestyle Choices - Community University Research Alliance project, whose goal is to identify and describe the major developmental pathways of risk behaviours and resilience in youth. Two aspects of monitoring (monitoring knowledge and surveillance/tracking), attachment security, and two measures of temperament (activity level and approach) were examined for main effects and in interactions as predictors of adolescent nonnative beliefs. All of these measures were based on adolescent self-ratings on either 3- or 4-point Likert-type scales. Several important results emerged from the study. Males were higher than females in nblab; parental monitoring knowledge and adolescent attachment security were negatively related to nblab; and temperamental activity level was positively related. Monitoring knowledge, the strongest of the predictors, was much more strongly related to nonnative beliefs than was parental surveillance/tracking, supporting the contention that it is how much parents actually know, and not their surveillance efforts, that predict adolescent nonnative beliefs. A surprising finding that is of the utmost importance was that, although several of the interactions tested were significant, none were considered to be of a meaningful magnitude (defined as sr^ > .01). The current study supported the suggestion that normative beliefs legitimizing antisocial behaviour are multiply determined, and the results were discussed with respect to the observed differential relations of parental monitoring, parent-child attachment, temperament, age, and gender to antisocial normative beliefs in adolescents. Also discussed were the need to test other parenting, temperament, and other variables that may be involved in the development of nblab; the need to directly test possible mechanisms explaining the links among the variables; and the usefulness of longitudinal research in determining possible directions of causality and developmental changes in the relationships.

From inference to affordance : the problem of visual depth-perception in the optical writings of Descartes, Berkeley, and Gibson

This thesis explores the debate and issues regarding the status of visual ;,iferellces in the optical writings of Rene Descartes, George Berkeley and James 1. Gibson. It gathers arguments from across their works and synthesizes an account of visual depthperception that accurately reflects the larger, metaphysical implications of their philosophical theories. Chapters 1 and 2 address the Cartesian and Berkelean theories of depth-perception, respectively. For Descartes and Berkeley the debate can be put in the following way: How is it possible that we experience objects as appearing outside of us, at various distances, if objects appear inside of us, in the representations of the individual's mind? Thus, the Descartes-Berkeley component of the debate takes place exclusively within a representationalist setting. Representational theories of depthperception are rooted in the scientific discovery that objects project a merely twodimensional patchwork of forms on the retina. I call this the "flat image" problem. This poses the problem of depth in terms of a difference between two- and three-dimensional orders (i.e., a gap to be bridged by one inferential procedure or another). Chapter 3 addresses Gibson's ecological response to the debate. Gibson argues that the perceiver cannot be flattened out into a passive, two-dimensional sensory surface. Perception is possible precisely because the body and the environment already have depth. Accordingly, the problem cannot be reduced to a gap between two- and threedimensional givens, a gap crossed with a projective geometry. The crucial difference is not one of a dimensional degree. Chapter 3 explores this theme and attempts to excavate the empirical and philosophical suppositions that lead Descartes and Berkeley to their respective theories of indirect perception. Gibson argues that the notion of visual inference, which is necessary to substantiate representational theories of indirect perception, is highly problematic. To elucidate this point, the thesis steps into the representationalist tradition, in order to show that problems that arise within it demand a tum toward Gibson's information-based doctrine of ecological specificity (which is to say, the theory of direct perception). Chapter 3 concludes with a careful examination of Gibsonian affordallces as the sole objects of direct perceptual experience. The final section provides an account of affordances that locates the moving, perceiving body at the heart of the experience of depth; an experience which emerges in the dynamical structures that cross the body and the world.

Analysis of the feeding behaviour of the mosquito Culex pipiens L. (Diptera: Culicidae) in relation to West Nile virus

The goal ofthis literature review is to inform the reader on several aspects of West Nile Virus (WNV) transmission by its mosquito vector, Culex pipiens and to elucidate how Cx. pipiens and WNV are intertwined. The first few sections of the literature review describe the life cycle and blood feeding behaviours ofmosquitoes so that baseline data ofmosquito biology are established. In addition to explaining how and why a mosquito blood feeds, the section on "Blood Meal Analysis" describes the different methods for determining the vertebrate source of mosquito blood meals and a brief history of these testing methods. Since this thesis looks at the feeding behaviour of Cx. pipiens, it is important to know how to determine what they are feeding upon. Discussion on other mosquito-borne diseases related to WNV gives a broader perspective to the thesis, and examines other diseases that have occurred in Ontario in the past. This is followed by background information on WNV and theories on how this virus came to North America and how it relates to Cx. pipiens. The final sections discuss Cx. pipiens and give background information to how this species of mosquito exists and behaves within North America.

The practical application of a meta-analysis of deinstitutionalization : adaptive behaviour outcomes and the piloting of a transitional questionnaire for adults with intellectual disabilities

This investigation examined the effects of de institutionalization on the adaptive behaviour and adjustment of adults with intellectual disabilities (ID). In study 1, a meta-analysis was conducted with 23 studies on deinstitutionalization adaptive behaviour outcomes. Deinstitutionalization was associated with modest improvements in adaptive behaviour however outcomes varied across adaptive behaviour domains and other substantive variables. Clinical and service implications of these results were explicated. Noting the trends from the meta-analysis, study 2 used this information in refining and piloting an Agency Transition Survey used to evaluate community transitions for persons with ID. Information derived from the survey was found to be valuable and adequate for the effective evaluation of transitional success. Potential applications of the survey and meta-analysis results were illustrated.

Functional analysis and treatment of OCD-related behaviour in a child with Autism Spectrum Disorder

Research indicates that Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD; DSM-IV-TR, American Psychiatric Association, 2000) is the second most frequent disorder to coincide with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD; Leyfer et aI., 2006). Excessive collecting and hoarding are also frequently reported in children with ASD (Berjerot, 2007). Although functional analysis (Iwata, Dorsey, Slifer, Bauman, & Richman, 1982/1994) has successfully identified maintaining variables for repetitive behaviours such as of bizarre vocalizations (e.g., Wilder, Masuda, O'Connor, & Baham, 2001), tics (e.g., Scotti, Schulman, & Hojnacki, 1994), and habit disorders (e.g., Woods & Miltenberger, 1996), extant literature ofOCD and functional analysis methodology is scarce (May et aI., 2008). The current studies utilized functional analysis methodology to identify the types of operant functions associated with the OCD-related hoarding behaviour of a child with ASD and examined the efficacy of function-based intervention. Results supported hypotheses of automatic and socially mediated positive reinforcement. A corresponding function-based treatment plan incorporated antecedent strategies and differential reinforcement (Deitz, 1977; Lindberg, Iwata, Kahng, and DeLeon, 1999; Reynolds, 1961). Reductions in problem behaviour were evidenced through use of a multiple baseline across behaviours design and maintained during two-month follow-up. Decreases in symptom severity were also discerned through subjective measures of treatment effectiveness.

Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.

Surveillance et ordre commercial : ethnographie d’un centre de contrôle de vidéosurveillance en milieu privé de masse

Dans l’optique que la télésurveillance est devenue un outil indispensable en matière de sécurité, notre projet de recherche porte sur la manière dont elle est utilisée à des fins de gestion de l’ordre dans une propriété privée de masse (propriété privée que le public général est invité à visiter). Il s’agit de comprendre le rôle du centre de contrôle de télésurveillance dans la gestion d’un centre commercial. De façon plus spécifique, nous voulons décrire le fonctionnement et les objectifs des technologies de télésurveillance et les méthodes de contrôle utilisées dans un espace privé de masse. Nous voulons décrire les pratiques des agents affectés au centre de contrôle de télésurveillance ainsi que leur perception des notions de sécurité et d’ordre, avec une attention particulière accordée à la surveillance des lieux. Le site que nous avons sélectionné est un édifice situé en plein cœur du centre-ville de Montréal, où nous retrouvons des galeries commerciales abritant plusieurs restaurants et boutiques. Afin d’atteindre nos objectifs de recherche, nous avons fait plus de 150 heures d’observation participante dans le centre de contrôle de télésurveillance. Nos observations étaient complétées par des entretiens spontanés, afin de bien comprendre la dynamique et les interactions entre les agents, les autres employés et les visiteurs. Ainsi, notre matériel empirique est surtout de nature qualitative, mais nous avons complété ces données avec une grille d’analyse quantitative permettant une analyse minutieuse de l’emploi du temps des agents de sécurité à l’aide d’un fichier informatisé. Nous sommes en mesure d’établir que la surveillance dans une propriété privée de masse vise, à biens des égards, la gestion de l’image. La sécurité proprement dite est reléguée au second plan, derrière tout ce qui est relatif au marketing et à l’encouragement à la consommation. De plus, nous avons constaté que les agents de sécurité dans de tels lieux servent surtout à répondre à des besoins organisationnels ponctuels, leur quotidien n’étant guidé par aucune mission globale. Quant au centre de contrôle de vidéosurveillance, nous pouvons affirmer que son rôle est de s’assurer que toutes les activités au centre se déroulent comme convenu par les gestionnaires de l’établissement.