940 resultados para Bayesian belief networks
Resumo:
Companies and their services are being increasingly exposed to global business networks and Internet-based ondemand services. Much of the focus is on flexible orchestration and consumption of services, beyond ownership and operational boundaries of services. However, ways in which third-parties in the “global village” can seamlessly self-create new offers out of existing services remains open. This paper proposes a framework for service provisioning in global business networks that allows an open-ended set of techniques for extending services through a rich, multi-tooling environment. The Service Provisioning Management Framework, as such, supports different modeling techniques, through supportive tools, allowing different parts of services to be integrated into new contexts. Integration of service user interfaces, business processes, operational interfaces and business object are supported. The integration specifications that arise from service extensions are uniformly reflected through a kernel technique, the Service Integration Technique. Thus, the framework preserves coherence of service provisioning tasks without constraining the modeling techniques needed for extending different aspects of services.
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Immigrant entrepreneurship, or, self-employment by immigrants (Light & Bonacich, 1988), has been of growing interest to researchers (Hosler, 1996). This is due in part to major immigrant receiving countries, such as Australia, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Western Europe, experiencing a high growth rate in their immigrant populations, leading to a more visible presence of immigrant business in major cities (Woon, 2008). By starting their own businesses, immigrant entrepreneurs may circumvent some of the barriers and disadvantages encountered in looking for a job (Sequeira & Rasheed, 2006). Successful immigrant entrepreneurs will integrate into the economy by creating jobs, providing products and services for members of their own ethnic community and society, as well as introducing new products and services that expand consumers’ choices (Rath & Kloosterman, 2000). Immigrant entrepreneurs tend to start business within their ethnic enclave, as it is an integral part of their social and cultural context and the location where ethnic resources reside (Logan et al., 2002). An ethnic enclave is an interdependent network of social and business relationships that are geographically concentrated with its co-ethnic people (Portes & Bach, 1985).
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Accurate reliability prediction for large-scale, long lived engineering is a crucial foundation for effective asset risk management and optimal maintenance decision making. However, a lack of failure data for assets that fail infrequently, and changing operational conditions over long periods of time, make accurate reliability prediction for such assets very challenging. To address this issue, we present a Bayesian-Marko best approach to reliability prediction using prior knowledge and condition monitoring data. In this approach, the Bayesian theory is used to incorporate prior information about failure probabilities and current information about asset health to make statistical inferences, while Markov chains are used to update and predict the health of assets based on condition monitoring data. The prior information can be supplied by domain experts, extracted from previous comparable cases or derived from basic engineering principles. Our approach differs from existing hybrid Bayesian models which are normally used to update the parameter estimation of a given distribution such as the Weibull-Bayesian distribution or the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. Instead, our new approach can be used to update predictions of failure probabilities when failure data are sparse or nonexistent, as is often the case for large-scale long-lived engineering assets.
Resumo:
PySSM is a Python package that has been developed for the analysis of time series using linear Gaussian state space models (SSM). PySSM is easy to use; models can be set up quickly and efficiently and a variety of different settings are available to the user. It also takes advantage of scientific libraries Numpy and Scipy and other high level features of the Python language. PySSM is also used as a platform for interfacing between optimised and parallelised Fortran routines. These Fortran routines heavily utilise Basic Linear Algebra (BLAS) and Linear Algebra Package (LAPACK) functions for maximum performance. PySSM contains classes for filtering, classical smoothing as well as simulation smoothing.
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Having wrung the most from workforce and workplace productivity initiaitves, innovation has come to the fore as a key goal and directive for public sector organisations to become more efficient. This clarion call for innovation can be heard all around the world, with public services everywhere taking up the message to develop better, smarter, novel, more innovative processes, programs and policies. In the current push for innovation, networks are considered to be a superior vehicle through which collective knowledge can be shared and leveraged; replacing or at least supplementing the role function previously provided by inventive leaders...
Resumo:
Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.
Resumo:
The rapid growth in the number of users using social networks and the information that a social network requires about their users make the traditional matching systems insufficiently adept at matching users within social networks. This paper introduces the use of clustering to form communities of users and, then, uses these communities to generate matches. Forming communities within a social network helps to reduce the number of users that the matching system needs to consider, and helps to overcome other problems from which social networks suffer, such as the absence of user activities' information about a new user. The proposed system has been evaluated on a dataset obtained from an online dating website. Empirical analysis shows that accuracy of the matching process is increased using the community information.
Resumo:
Generic, flexible social media spaces such as Facebook and Twitter constitute an increasingly important element in our overall media repertoires. They provide a technological basis for instant and world-wide, ad hoc, many-to-many communication, and their effect on global communication patterns has already been highlighted. The short-messaging platform Twitter, for example, caters for uses ranging from interpersonal and quasi-private phatic exchanges to ‘ambient journalism’: ad hoc new reporting and dissemination as major events break. Many such uses have themselves emerged through user-driven processes: even standard Twitter conventions such as the @reply (to publicly address a fellow user) or the #hashtag(to collect related messages in an easily accessible space) are user inventions, in fact, and were incorporated into Twitter’s own infrastructure only subsequently. This demonstrates the substantial potential of social, user-led innovation in social media spaces.
Resumo:
The next generation of SOA needs to scale for flexible service consumption, beyond organizational boundaries and current B2B applications, into communities, eco-systems, and business networks. In the wider and, ultimately, global settings, new capabilities are needed so that business partners can efficiently and reliably enable, adapt, and expose services where they can be discovered, ordered, consumed, metered, and paid for, through new applications and opportunities, driven by third parties in the global "village". This trend is already underway, in different ways, through various early adopter market segments. For the small medium enterprises segment, Google, Intuit-Microsoft, and others have launched appstores, through which an open-ended array of hosted applications are sourced from the development community and procured as maketplace commondities. In the corporate sector, the marketplace model and business network hubs are being put in place on top of connectivity and network orchestration investments for capitalizing services as tradable assets, seen in banking/finance (e.g. American Express Intelligent Marketplace), logistics (e.g., the E2open hub), and the public sector (e.g., UK DirectGov whole-of-government citizen services delivery).
Resumo:
A wireless sensor network system must have the ability to tolerate harsh environmental conditions and reduce communication failures. In a typical outdoor situation, the presence of wind can introduce movement in the foliage. This motion of vegetation structures causes large and rapid signal fading in the communication link and must be accounted for when deploying a wireless sensor network system in such conditions. This thesis examines the fading characteristics experienced by wireless sensor nodes due to the effect of varying wind speed in a foliage obstructed transmission path. It presents extensive measurement campaigns at two locations with the approach of a typical wireless sensor networks configuration. The significance of this research lies in the varied approaches of its different experiments, involving a variety of vegetation types, scenarios and the use of different polarisations (vertical and horizontal). Non–line of sight (NLoS) scenario conditions investigate the wind effect based on different vegetation densities including that of the Acacia tree, Dogbane tree and tall grass. Whereas the line of sight (LoS) scenario investigates the effect of wind when the grass is swaying and affecting the ground-reflected component of the signal. Vegetation type and scenarios are envisaged to simulate real life working conditions of wireless sensor network systems in outdoor foliated environments. The results from the measurements are presented in statistical models involving first and second order statistics. We found that in most of the cases, the fading amplitude could be approximated by both Lognormal and Nakagami distribution, whose m parameter was found to depend on received power fluctuations. Lognormal distribution is known as the result of slow fading characteristics due to shadowing. This study concludes that fading caused by variations in received power due to wind in wireless sensor networks systems are found to be insignificant. There is no notable difference in Nakagami m values for low, calm, and windy wind speed categories. It is also shown in the second order analysis, the duration of the deep fades are very short, 0.1 second for 10 dB attenuation below RMS level for vertical polarization and 0.01 second for 10 dB attenuation below RMS level for horizontal polarization. Another key finding is that the received signal strength for horizontal polarisation demonstrates more than 3 dB better performances than the vertical polarisation for LoS and near LoS (thin vegetation) conditions and up to 10 dB better for denser vegetation conditions.
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This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team of international entrepreneurship researchers. In this vignette Dr Maria Kaya and Associate Professor Paul Steffens consider both the classification of musicians and their use of online social networks.
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The role of networks and their contribution to sustaining and developing creative industries is well documented (Wittel 2001; Kong 2005; Pratt 2007). This article argues that although networks operate across geographical boundaries, particularly through the use of communication technologies, the majority of studies have focussed on the ways in which networks operate in a) specific inner-urban metropolitan regions or b) specific industries. Such studies are informed by the geographical mindset of creative city proponents such as Florida (2002) and Landry (2000) in which inner-urban precincts are seen as the prime location for creative industries activity, business development and opportunity. But what of those creative industries situated beyond the inner city? Evidence in Australia suggests there is increasing creative industries activity beyond the inner city, in outer-suburban and ex-urban areas (Gibson & Brennan-Horley 2006). This article identifies characteristics of creative industries networks in outer-suburban locations in Melbourne and Brisbane. It argues that supporting and sustaining creative industries networks in these locations may require different strategies than those applied to inner-city networks. The article thus contributes to the growing understanding of the cultural economic geography of creative industries.
Resumo:
The role of networks and their contribution to sustaining and developing creative industries is well documented (Wittel 2001, Kong 2005, Pratt, 2007). This article argues that although networks operate across geographical boundaries, particularly through the use of communication technologies, the majority of studies have focussed on the ways in which networks operate among creative industry workers located in a) specific inner-urban metropolitan regions or b) specific industries. Such studies are informed by the geographical mindset of creative city proponents such as Florida (2002) and Landry (2000) in which inner-urban precincts are seen as the prime location or ‘hub’ for creative industries activity, business development and opportunity. But what of those creative industries situated beyond the inner city? Evidence in Australia suggests that there is increasing creative industries activity beyond the inner city, in outer-suburban and ex-urban areas (Gibson and Brennan-Horley 2006). This article identifies features of networks operating two outer-suburban locations.
Resumo:
In this paper, we apply a simulation based approach for estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens. In particular, the objective is to infer the transmission rate between colonised health-care practitioners and uncolonised patients (and vice versa) solely from routinely collected incidence data. The method, using approximate Bayesian computation, is substantially less computer intensive and easier to implement than likelihood-based approaches we refer to here. We find through replacing the likelihood with a comparison of an efficient summary statistic between observed and simulated data that little is lost in the precision of estimated transmission rates. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of incorporating uncertainty in previously fixed parameters on the precision of the estimated transmission rates.
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This article sketches some of the ways in which the language and concepts of cultural diversity are being taken up internationally. The debate has been driven in part by concerns about the treatment of cultural goods, services and knowledge in trade agreements. But it also involves larger questions about the role of the state, the role of non-state actors in domestic policy formation, and the shape and function of international policy communities comprising both state and non-state actors. The extent of the discussion of cultural diversity internationally is described through new formal and informal cultural networks and work towards an international instrument for cultural diversity to lay our ground rules for international trade, cultural exchange and policy principles to guide governmental responsibilities. The article concludes with analysis of some of these new networks, and investigates why Canada has been so prominent in these international efforts.