Return distribution predictability and its implications for portfolio selection

The inquiries to return predictability are traditionally limited to conditional mean, while literature on portfolio selection is replete with moment-based analysis with up to the fourth moment being considered. This paper develops a distribution-based framework for both return prediction and portfolio selection. More specifically, a time-varying return distribution is modeled through quantile regressions and copulas, using quantile regressions to extract information in marginal distributions and copulas to capture dependence structure. A preference function which captures higher moments is proposed for portfolio selection. An empirical application highlights the additional information provided by the distributional approach which cannot be captured by the traditional moment-based methods.

Vaccination of healthy and diseased koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) with a Chlamydia pecorum multi-subunit vaccine : evaluation of immunity and pathology

Chlamydial infections represent a major threat to the long-term survival of the koala and a successful vaccine would provide a valuable management tool. Vaccination however has the potential to enhance inflammatory disease in animals exposed to a natural infection prior to vaccination, a finding in early human and primate trials of whole cell vaccines to prevent trachoma. In the present study, we vaccinated both healthy koalas as well as clinically diseased koalas with a multi-subunit vaccine consisting of Chlamydia pecorum MOMP and NrdB mixed with immune stimulating complex as adjuvant. Following vaccination, there was no increase in inflammatory pathological changes in animals previously infected with Chlamydia. Strong antibody (including neutralizing antibodies) and lymphocyte proliferation responses were recorded in all vaccinated koalas, both healthy and clinically diseased. Vaccine induced antibodies specific for both vaccine antigens were observed not only in plasma but also in ocular secretions. Our data shows that an experimental chlamydial vaccine is safe to use in previously infected koalas, in that it does not worsen infection-associated lesions. Furthermore, the prototype vaccine is effective, as demonstrated by strong levels of neutralizing antibody and lymphocyte proliferation responses in both healthy and clinically diseased koalas. Collectively, this work illustrates the feasibility of developing a safe and effective Chlamydia vaccine as a tool for management of disease in wild koalas.

Individual dose and exposure of Italian children to ultrafine particles

Time-activity patterns and the airborne pollutant concentrations encountered by children each day are an important determinant of individual exposure to airborne particles. This is demonstrated in this work by using hand-held devices to measure the real-time individual exposure of more than 100 children aged 8-11 years to particle number concentrations and average particle diameter, as well as alveolar and tracheobronchial deposited surface area concentration. A GPS-logger and activity diaries were also used to give explanation to the measurement results. Children were divided in three sample groups: two groups comprised of urban schools (school time from 8:30 am to 1:30 pm) with lunch and dinner at home, and the third group of a rural school with only dinner at home. The mean individual exposure to particle number concentration was found to differ between the three groups, ranging from 6.2×104 part. cm-3 for children attending one urban school to 1.6×104 part. cm-3 for the rural school. The corresponding daily alveolar deposited surface area dose varied from about 1.7×103 mm2 for urban schools to 6.0×102 mm2 for the rural school. For all of the children monitored, the lowest particle number concentrations are found during sleeping time and the highest were found during eating time. With regard to alveolar deposited surface area dose, a child's home was the major contributor (about 70%), with school contributing about 17% for urban schools and 27% for the rural school. An important contribution arises from the cooking/eating time spent at home, which accounted for approximately 20% of overall exposure, corresponding to more than 200 mm2. These activities represent the highest dose received per time unit, with very high values also encountered by children with a fireplace at home, as well as those that spend considerable time stuck in traffic jams.

Suicide rates in Shandong, China, 1991–2010 : rapid decrease in rural rates and steady increase in male–female ratio

Background China has one of the highest suicide rates in the world; however, the recent trends in suicide have not been adequately studied. This study aimed to examine the potential changes in the rates and characteristics in a Chinese population. Methods Data on suicide deaths in 1991–2010 were extracted from the Shandong Disease Surveillance Point (DSP) mortality dataset based on ICD-10 codes. The temporal trend in age-adjusted suicide rates for each subpopulation was tested using log-linear Poisson regression analysis. Results From 1991 to 2010, there was a marked decrease in the overall suicide rate in Shandong, with an average reduction of 8% per year. The decrease trend was stronger in rural than in urban areas and more evident in females than in males. Similar decreases were observed for all age groups. Pesticide ingestion and hanging remained the top two methods for suicide. Limitations There are likely quality concerns in the morality data, such as underreporting and misclassification, as well as low accuracy in determining the underlying causes of deaths. The representativeness of the DSP system may also be problematic due to the rapid changes in economy and demography. Conclusions Completed suicides in Shandong have sharply declined over the past 20 years. Higher rates in females versus males and in rural versus urban areas, which were previously considered to be distinguishing features of suicide in China, are becoming less pronounced.

Sensors and imaging for wound healing : a review

Wound healing involves a complex series of biochemical events and has traditionally been managed with 'low tech' dressings and bandages. The concept that diagnostic and theranostic sensors can complement wound management is rapidly growing in popularity as there is tremendous potential to apply this technology to both acute and chronic wounds. Benefits in sensing the wound environment include reduction of hospitalization time, prevention of amputations and better understanding of the processes which impair healing. This review discusses the state-of-the-art in detection of markers associated with wound healing and infection, utilizing devices imbedded within dressings or as point-of-care techniques to allow for continual or rapid wound assessment and monitoring. Approaches include using biological or chemical sensors of wound exudates and volatiles to directly or indirectly detect bacteria, monitor pH, temperature, oxygen and enzymes. Spectroscopic and imaging techniques are also reviewed as advanced wound monitoring techniques. The review concludes with a discussion of the limitations of and future directions for this field.

Inhaled particle counts on bicycle commute routes of low and high proximity to motorised traffic

Frequent exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) is associated with detrimental effects on cardiopulmonary function and health. UFP dose and therefore the associated health risk are a factor of exposure frequency, duration, and magnitude of (therefore also proximity to) a UFP emission source. Bicycle commuters using on-road routes during peak traffic times are sharing a microenvironment with high levels of motorised traffic, a major UFP emission source. Inhaled particle counts were measured along popular pre-identified bicycle commute route alterations of low (LOW) and high (HIGH) motorised traffic to the same inner-city destination at peak commute traffic times. During commute, real-time particle number concentration (PNC; mostly in the UFP range) and particle diameter (PD), heart and respiratory rate, geographical location, and meteorological variables were measured. To determine inhaled particle counts, ventilation rate was calculated from heart-rate-ventilation associations, produced from periodic exercise testing. Total mean PNC of LOW (compared to HIGH) was reduced (1.56 x e4 ± 0.38 x e4 versus 3.06 x e4 ± 0.53 x e4 ppcc; p = 0.012). Total estimated ventilation rate did not vary significantly between LOW and HIGH (43 ± 5 versus 46 ± 9 L•min; p = 0.136); however, due to total mean PNC, accumulated inhaled particle counts were 48% lower in LOW, compared to HIGH (7.6 x e8 ± 1.5 x e8 versus 14.6 x e8 ± 1.8 x e8; p = 0.003). For bicycle commuting at peak morning commute times, inhaled particle counts and therefore cardiopulmonary health risk may be substantially reduced by decreasing exposure to motorised traffic, which should be considered by both bicycle commuters and urban planners.

Detection of right-to-left Atrial communication using agitated saline contrast imaging : experience with 1162 patients and recommendations for echocardiography

Background: Right-to-left shunting via a patent foramen ovale (PFO) has a recognized association with embolic events in younger patients. The use of agitated saline contrast imaging (ASCi) for detecting atrial shunting is well documented, however optimal technique is not well described. The purpose of this study is to assess the efficacy and safety of ASCi via TTE for assessment of right-to-left atrial communication in a large cohort of patients. Method: A retrospective review was undertaken of 1162 consecutive transthoracic (TTE) ASCi studies, of which 195 had also undergone clinically indicated transesophageal (TEE) echo. ASCi shunt results were compared with color flow imaging (CFI) and the role of provocative maneuvers (PM) assessed. Results: 403 TTE studies (35%) had paradoxical shunting seen during ASCi. Of these, 48% were positive with PM only. There was strong agreement between TTE ASCi and reported TEE findings (99% sensitivity, 85% specificity), with six false positive and two false negative results. In hindsight, the latter were likely due to suboptimal right atrial opacification, and the former due to transpulmonary shunting. TTE CFI was found to be insensitive (22%) for the detection of a PFO compared with TTE ASCi. Conclusions: TTE ASCi is minimally invasive and highly accurate for the detection of right-to-left atrial communication when PM are used. TTE CFI was found to be insensitive for PFO screening. It is recommended that TTE ASCi should be considered the initial diagnostic tool for the detection of PFO in clinical practice. A dedicated protocol should be followed to ensure adequate agitated saline contrast delivery and performance of provocative maneuvers.

The use of computerised simulators for training of transthoracic and transoesophageal echocardiography. The future of echocardiographic training?

Echocardiography is the commonest form of non-invasive cardiac imaging and is fundamental to patient management. However, due to its methodology, it is also operator dependent. There are well defined pathways in training and ongoing accreditation to achieve and maintain competency. To satisfy these requirements, significant time has to be dedicated to scanning patients, often in the time pressured clinical environment. Alternative, computer based training methods are being considered to augment echocardiographic training. Numerous advances in technology have resulted in the development of interactive programmes and simulators to teach trainees the skills to perform particular procedures, including transthoracic and transoesophageal echocardiography. 82 sonographers and TOE proceduralists utilised an echocardiographic simulator and assessed its utility using defined criteria. 40 trainee sonographers assessed the simulator and were taught how to obtain an apical 2 chamber (A2C) view and image the superior vena cava (SVC). 100% and 88% found the simulator useful in obtaining the SVC or A2C view respectively. All users found it easy to use and the majority found it helped with image acquisition and interpretation. 42 attendees of a TOE training day utilising the simulator assessed the simulator with 100% finding it easy to use, as well as the augmented reality graphics benefiting image acquisition. 90% felt that it was realistic. This study revealed that both trainee sonographers and TOE proceduralists found the simulation process was realistic, helped in image acquisition and improved assessment of spatial relationships. Echocardiographic simulators may play an important role in the future training of echocardiographic skills.

Evaluation of screening tests for predicting older driver performance and safety assessed by an on-road test

A number of tests and test batteries are available for the prediction of older driver safety, but many of these have not been validated against standardized driving outcome measures. The aim of this study was to evaluate a series of previously described screening tests in terms of their ability to predict the potential for safe and unsafe driving. Participants included 79 community-dwelling older drivers (M=72.16 years, SD=5.46; range 65-88 years; 57 males and 22 females) who completed a previously validated multi-disciplinary driving assessment, a hazard perception test, a hazard change detection test and a battery of vision and cognitive tests. Participants also completed a standardized on-road driving assessment. The multi-disciplinary test battery had the highest predictive ability with a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 73%, followed by the hazard perception test which demonstrated a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 61%. These findings suggest that a relatively simple and practical battery of tests from a range of domains has the capacity to predict safe and unsafe driving in older adults.

Knee flexor strength and bicep femoris electromyographical activity is lower in previously strained hamstrings

The aim of this study was to determine if athletes with a history of hamstring strain injury display lower levels of surface EMG (sEMG) activity and median power frequency in the previously injured hamstring muscle during maximal voluntary contractions. Recreational athletes were recruited, 13 with a history of unilateral hamstring strain injury and 15 without prior injury. All athletes undertook isokinetic dynamometry testing of the knee flexors and sEMG assessment of the biceps femoris long head (BF) and medial hamstrings (MH) during concentric and eccentric contractions at ± 180 and ± 600.s-1. The knee flexors on the previously injured limb were weaker at all contraction speeds compared to the uninjured limb (+1800.s-1 p = 0.0036; +600.s-1 p = 0.0013; -600.s-1 p = 0.0007; -1800.s-1 p = 0.0007) whilst sEMG activity was only lower in the BF during eccentric contractions (-600.s-1 p = 0.0025; -1800.s-1 p = 0.0003). There were no between limb differences in MH sEMG activity or median power frequency from either BF or MH in the injured group. The uninjured group showed no between limb differences in any of the tested variables. Secondary analysis comparing the between limb difference in the injured and the uninjured groups, confirmed that previously injured hamstrings were mostly weaker (+1800.s-1 p = 0.2208; +600.s-1 p = 0.0379; -600.s-1 p = 0.0312; -1800.s-1 p = 0.0110) and that deficits in sEMG were confined to the BF during eccentric contractions (-600.s-1 p = 0.0542; -1800.s-1 p = 0.0473) Previously injured hamstrings were weaker and BF sEMG activity was lower than the contralateral uninjured hamstring. This has implications for hamstring strain injury prevention and rehabilitation which should consider altered neural function following hamstring strain injury.

Photocatalytic reduction of carbon dioxide to formic acid, formaldehyde, and methanol using dye-sensitized TiO2 film

A bifunctionalized TiO2 film containing a dye-sensitized zone and a catalysis zone is designed for visible-light photocatalytic reduction of CO2 to chemicals continuously. Charge separation can be accomplished with electron transferring to catalysis zone and positive charge transforming to anode. Highly efficient conversion of CO2 to formic acid, formaldehyde, and methanol is achieved through the transferring electrons on conduction bands (CB) of TiO2. Reduction of CO2 and O2 evolution take place in separated solutions on different catalysts. The separated solution carried out in this photo-reactor system can avoid CO2 reduction products being oxidized by anode. The yields of reduction products were enhanced remarkably by external electrical power. This study provides not only a new photocatalytic system but also a potential of renewable energy source via carbon dioxide.

Book review of Wang, Y., & Pizam, A. (Eds). 2011. Destination Marketing and Management – Theories and Applications.

A contentious issue in the field of destination marketing has been the recent tendency by some authors to refer to destination marketing organisations (DMOs) as destination management organisations. This nomenclature infers control over destination resources, a level of influence that is in reality held by few DMOs. This issue of a lack of control over the destination ‘amalgam’ is acknowledged by a number of the contributors, including the editors and the discussion on destination competitiveness by J.R. Brent Ritchie and Geoffrey Crouch, and is perhaps best summed up by Alan Fyall in the concluding chapter: “...unless all elements are owned by the same body, then the ability to control and influence the direction, quality and development of the destination pose very real challenges’ (p. 343). The title of the text acknowledges both marketing and management, in relation to theories and applications. While there are insightful propositions about ideals of destination management, readers will find there is a lack of coverage of destination management in practise by DMOs. This represents fertile ground for future research.

Maintenance optimisation of a multi-state series-parallel system considering economic dependence and state-dependent inspection intervals

This paper presents a maintenance optimisation method for a multi-state series-parallel system considering economic dependence and state-dependent inspection intervals. The objective function considered in the paper is the average revenue per unit time calculated based on the semi-regenerative theory and the universal generating function (UGF). A new algorithm using the stochastic ordering is also developed in this paper to reduce the search space of maintenance strategies and to enhance the efficiency of optimisation algorithms. A numerical simulation is presented in the study to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed maintenance strategy and optimisation algorithms. The simulation result reveals that maintenance strategies with opportunistic maintenance and state-dependent inspection intervals are more cost-effective when the influence of economic dependence and inspection cost is significant. The study further demonstrates that the optimisation algorithm proposed in this paper has higher computational efficiency than the commonly employed heuristic algorithms.

Going public : do risk and choice explain differences in caesarean birth rates between public and private places of birth in Australia?

Background: Women who birth in private facilities in Australia are more likely to have a caesarean birth than women who birth in public facilities and these differences remain after accounting for sector differences in the demographic and health risk profiles of women. However, the extent to which women’s preferences and/or freedom to choose their mode of birth further account for differences in the likelihood of caesarean birth between the sectors remains untested. Method: Women who birthed in Queensland, Australia during a two-week period in 2009 were mailed a self-report survey approximately three months after birth. Seven hundred and fifty-seven women provided cross-sectional retrospective data on where they birthed (public or private facility), mode of birth (vaginal or caesarean) and risk factors, along with their preferences and freedom to choose their mode of birth. A hierarchical logistic regression was conducted to determine the extent to which maternal risk and freedom to choose one’s mode of birth explain sector differences in the likelihood of having a caesarean birth. Findings: While there was no sector difference in women’s preference for mode of birth, women who birthed in private facilities had higher odds of feeling able to choose either a vaginal or caesarean birth, and feeling able to choose only a caesarean birth. Women had higher odds of having caesarean birth if they birthed in private facilities, even after accounting for significant risk factors such as age, body mass index, previous caesarean and use of assisted reproductive technology. However, there was no association between place of birth and odds of having a caesarean birth after also accounting for freedom to choose one’s mode of birth. Conclusions: These findings call into question suggestions that the higher caesarean birth rate in the private sector in Australia is attributable to increased levels of obstetric risk among women birthing in the private sector or maternal preferences alone. Instead, the determinants of sector differences in the likelihood of caesarean births are complex and are linked to differences in the perceived choices for mode of birth between women birthing in the private and public systems.

Efficacy of oral or intrauterine device-delivered progestin in patients with complex endometrial hyperplasia with atypia or early endometrial adenocarcinoma : a meta-analysis and systematic review of the literature

Objectives: To investigate the efficacy of progestin treatment to achieve pathological complete response (pCR) in patients with complex atypical endometrial hyperplasia (CAH) or early endometrial adenocarcinoma (EC). Methods: A systematic search identified 3245 potentially relevant citations. Studies containing less than ten eligible CAH or EC patients in either oral or intrauterine treatment arm were excluded. Only information from patients receiving six or more months of treatment and not receiving other treatments was included. Weighted proportions of patients achieving pCR were calculated using R software. Results: Twelve studies met the selection criteria. Eleven studies reported treatment of patients with oral (219 patients, 117 with CAH, 102 with grade 1 Stage I EC) and one reported treatment of patients with intrauterine progestin (11 patients with grade 1 Stage IEC). Overall, 74% (95% confidence interval [CI] 65-81%) of patients with CAH and 72% (95% CI 62-80%) of patients with grade 1 Stage I EC achieved a pCR to oral progestin. Disease progression while on oral treatment was reported for 6/219 (2.7%), and relapse after initial complete response for 32/159 (20.1%) patients. The weighted mean pCR rate of patients with grade 1 Stage I EC treated with intrauterine progestin from one prospective pilot study and an unpublished retrospective case series from the Queensland Centre of Gynaecologic Oncology (QCGC) was 68% (95% CI 45- 86%). Conclusions: There is a lack of high quality evidence for the efficacy of progestin in CAH or EC. The available evidence however suggests that treatment with oral or intrauterine progestin is similarly effective. The risk of progression during treatment is small but longer follow-up is required. Evidence from prospective controlled clinical trials is warranted to establish how the efficacy of progestin for the treatment of CAH and EC can be improved further.