NATO’s presence in the Baltic states – reassurance of allies or deterrence for Russia? OSW COMMENTARY Number 169, 29.04.2015 2015-04-29

In late March and early April, the US Air Forces in Europe (USAFE) held an exercise in Estonia, during which US F-16s destroyed ground targets in an Estonian firing range. Around the same time the Americans held a drill with the Swedish and Finnish Air Forces over the Baltic Sea. The United States has been playing a leading role in the process of strengthening NATO’s presence in the Baltic states. As far as the Western European allies are concerned, Germany will follow in the footsteps of Denmark and the United Kingdom, both of which made significant military contributions to the strengthening of the allied presence in 2014, and will deploy the largest number of troops in 2015. Non-aligned Sweden and Finland, key for the performance of NATO operations in the Baltic states, have been emphasising their military and political readiness to co-operate with NATO in the event of potential crises or conflicts. Comparing NATO ‘s military presence in the Baltic states before and after the outbreak of the Russian intervention in Ukraine, it is clear that NATO has stepped up its engagement considerably. However, its scope is still relatively small, given the much larger military potential and mobilisation capacity of Russia. Moreover, the message sent by NATO’s actions may be diminished by the political, military and financial constraints faced by the allies and Sweden and Finland. It seems that the greatest risk to the military security of the Baltic states currently appears to be the possibility that Russia could wrongly assess the reliability of NATO’s security guarantees.

Composition of bottom sediments from the anoxic Mogil'noe Lake, Kil'din Island (Barents Sea)

In summer 2006 integrated geological, geochemical, hydrological, and hydrochemical studies were carried out in the relict anoxic Mogil'noe Lake (down to 16 m depths) located in the Kil'din Island in the Barents Sea. Chemical and grain size compositions of bottom sediments from the lake (permanently anoxic basin) and from the Baltic Sea deeps (periodically anoxic basins) were compared. Vertical location of the hydrogen sulfide layer boundary in the lake (9-11 m depths) was practically the same from 1974 up to now. Concentrations of suspended matter in the lake in June and July 2006 appeared to be close to its summer concentrations in seawater of the open Baltic Sea. Muds from the Mogil'noe Lake compared to those of the Baltic Sea deeps are characterized by fluid and flake consistency and by pronounced admixtures of sandy and silty fractions (probably of eolic origin). Lacustrine mud contains much plant remains; iron sulfides and vivianite were also found. Concentrations of 22 elements determined in lacustrine bottom sediments were of the same levels as those found here 33 years ago. Concentrations also appeared to be close to those in corresponding grain size types of bottom sediments in the Baltic Sea. Low C_org/N values (aver. 5.0) in muds of the Mogil'noe Lake compared to ones for muds of the Baltic Sea deeps (aver. 10) evidence considerable planktogenic component in organic matter composition of the lacustrine muds. No indications were reveled for anthropogenic contaminations of the lacustrine bottom sediments with toxic metals.

Mesozooplankton and phytoplankton time series of the Baltic Monitoring Program (BMP)

Within the monitoring programme of the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) the mesozooplankton of the Bornholm Basin (ICES subdivision 25, station BMP-K2) was sampled by the WP-2 net (lOOfJm) 5-8 times a year in 1988-1992. Abundance, biomass, secondary production and productivity (P/B) were given for mesozooplankton groups and copepod species. Environmental factors recorded were temperature, chlorophyll a and primary production. Within copepods, the dominant species were Temora longicornis and Pseudocalanus minutus with yearly peak values of 40-50% of the monthly copepod numbers and biomasses. The annual production of Temora longicornis was highest (6.5g C/m**2/y). The biomass of all copepods was at its maximum in June (mean = 2.25g C/m**2), especially in 1992 (3.65g C/m**2). The differences between results from two methods used to calculate the production of copepods were greatest in June and July. The cladocerans were only important in summer and the appendicularians only in spring. The productivity (P/B) of the appendicularians was highest of all mesozooplankton groups. Numbers and the biomass of the meroplankton were one or two orders of magnitude below the holoplanktic groups.

(Table 6a) 137Cs concentrations in waters of the Sea of Japan in 1994 and in 2002

Sulfide, S°, and thiosulfate were determined in waters of the Baltic Sea. Microquantities of these compounds were observed in oxic waters. Concentration levels of reduced sulfur compounds in Baltic oxic waters were very close to levels of the Black Sea oxic zone. Thiosulfate and S° were predominate compounds in oxic water whereas sulfide was a predominant compound Baltic waters high in hydrogen sulfide. Conclusion was made that during sedimentation in oxic waters anaerobic microorganisms along with aerobic bacteria take part in mineralization of organic matter. They exist on surfaces and in microniches of particles of organic detritus.

(Table 6b) 137Cs concentrations in surface layer bottom sediments of the Sea of Japan in 1994 and in 2002

Sulfide, S°, and thiosulfate were determined in waters of the Baltic Sea. Microquantities of these compounds were observed in oxic waters. Concentration levels of reduced sulfur compounds in Baltic oxic waters were very close to levels of the Black Sea oxic zone. Thiosulfate and S° were predominate compounds in oxic water whereas sulfide was a predominant compound Baltic waters high in hydrogen sulfide. Conclusion was made that during sedimentation in oxic waters anaerobic microorganisms along with aerobic bacteria take part in mineralization of organic matter. They exist on surfaces and in microniches of particles of organic detritus.