Macroevolutionary patterns in the diversification of parrots: effects of climate change, geological events and key innovations

Aim Parrots are thought to have originated on Gondwana during the Cretaceous. The initial split within crown group parrots separated the New Zealand taxa from the remaining extant species and was considered to coincide with the separation of New Zealand from Gondwana 82-85 Ma, assuming that the diversification of parrots was mainly shaped by vicariance. However, the distribution patterns of several extant parrot groups cannot be explained without invoking transoceanic dispersal, challenging this assumption. Here, we present a temporal and spatial framework for the diversification of parrots using external avian fossils as calibration points in order to evaluate the relative importance of the influences of past climate change, plate tectonics and ecological opportunity. Location Australasian, African, Indo-Malayan and Neotropical regions. Methods Phylogenetic relationships were investigated using partial sequences of the nuclear genes c-mos, RAG-1 and Zenk of 75 parrot and 21 other avian taxa. Divergence dates and confidence intervals were estimated using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock approach. Biogeographic patterns were evaluated taking temporal connectivity between areas into account. We tested whether diversification remained constant over time and if some parrot groups were more species-rich than expected given their age. Results Crown group diversification of parrots started only about 58 Ma, in the Palaeogene, significantly later than previously thought. The Australasian lories and possibly also the Neotropical Arini were found to be unexpectedly species-rich. Diversification rates probably increased around the Eocene/Oligocene boundary and in the middle Miocene, during two periods of major global climatic aberrations characterized by global cooling. Main conclusions The diversification of parrots was shaped by climatic and geological events as well as by key innovations. Initial vicariance events caused by continental break-up were followed by transoceanic dispersal and local radiations. Habitat shifts caused by climate change and mountain orogenesis may have acted as a catalyst to the diversification by providing new ecological opportunities and challenges as well as by causing isolation as a result of habitat fragmentation. The lories constitute the only highly nectarivorous parrot clade, and their diet shift, associated with morphological innovation, may have acted as an evolutionary key innovation, allowing them to explore underutilized niches and promoting their diversification.

Quantitative motor unit action potential analysis in 2 paraspinal neck muscles in adult Royal Dutch Sport horses

BACKGROUND: Reference values for quantitative electromyography (QEMG) in neck muscles of Royal Dutch Sport horses are lacking. OBJECTIVE: Determine normative data on quantitative motor unit action potential (QMUP) analysis of serratus ventralis cervicis (SV) and brachiocephalicus (BC) muscle. ANIMALS: Seven adult normal horses (mean age 9.5 standard deviation [SD] +/- 2.3 years, mean height 1.64 SD +/- 4.5 cm, and mean rectal temperature 37.6 SD +/- 0.3 degrees C). METHODS: An observational study on QMUP analysis in 6 segments of each muscle was performed with commercial electromyography equipment. Measurements were made according to formerly published methods. Natural logarithm transformed data were tested with ANOVA and posthoc testing according to Bonferroni. RESULTS: Mean duration, amplitude, phases, turns, area, and size index (SI) did not differ significantly among the 6 segments in each muscle. Mean amplitude, number of phases, and SI were significantly (P < .002) higher in SV than BC, 520 versus 448 muV, 3.0 versus 2.8 muV, and 0.48 versus 0.30 muV, respectively. In SV 95% confidence intervals (CI) for amplitude, duration, number of phases, turns, polyphasia area, and SI were 488-551 muV, 4.3-4.6 ms, 2.9-3.0, 2.4-2.6, 7-12%, 382-448, and 0.26-0.70, respectively; in BC this was 412-483 muV, 4.3-4.7 ms, 2.7-2.8, 2.4-2.6, 4-7%, 393-469, and 0.27-0.34, respectively. Maximal voluntary activity expressed by turns/second did not differ significantly between SV and BC with a 95% CI of 132-173 and 137-198, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: The establishment of normative data makes objective QEMG of paraspinal muscles in horses suspected of cervical neurogenic disorders possible. Differences between muscles should be taken into account.

A 13-year analysis from Switzerland of non-fatal sledging (sledding or tobogganing) injuries

INTRODUCTION: Winter sports have evolved from an upper class activity to a mass industry. Especially sledging regained popularity at the start of this century, with more and more winter sports resorts offering sledge runs. This study investigated the rates of sledging injuries over the last 13 years and analysed injury patterns specific for certain age groups, enabling us to make suggestions for preventive measures. METHODS: We present a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. From 1996/1997 to 2008/2009, all patients involved in sledging injuries were recorded upon admission to a Level III trauma centre. Injuries were classified into body regions according to the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS). The Injury Severity Score (ISS) was calculated. Patients were stratified into 7 age groups. Associations between age and injured body region were tested using the chi-squared test. The slope of the linear regression with 95% confidence intervals was calculated for the proportion of patients with different injured body regions and winter season. RESULTS: 4956 winter sports patients were recorded. 263 patients (5%) sustained sledging injuries. Sledging injury patients had a median age of 22 years (interquartile range [IQR] 14-38 years) and a median ISS of 4 (IQR 1-4). 136 (51.7%) were male. Injuries (AIS≥2) were most frequent to the lower extremities (n=91, 51.7% of all AIS≥2 injuries), followed by the upper extremities (n=48, 27.3%), the head (n=17, 9.7%), the spine (n=7, 4.0%). AIS≥2 injuries to different body regions varied from season to season, with no significant trends (p>0.19). However, the number of patients admitted with AIS≥2 injuries increased significantly over the seasons analysed (p=0.031), as did the number of patients with any kind of sledging injury (p=0.004). Mild head injuries were most frequent in the youngest age group (1-10 years old). Injuries to the lower extremities were more often seen in the age groups from 21 to 60 years (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Mild head trauma was mainly found in very young sledgers, and injuries to the lower extremities were more frequent in adults. In accordance with the current literature, we suggest that sledging should be performed in designated, obstacle-free areas that are specially prepared, and that children should always be supervised by adults. The effect of routine use of helmets and other protective devices needs further evaluation, but it seems evident that these should be obligatory on official runs.

Visualization Techniques For The Analysis Of Network Simulation Results

The Simulation Automation Framework for Experiments (SAFE) streamlines the de- sign and execution of experiments with the ns-3 network simulator. SAFE ensures that best practices are followed throughout the workflow a network simulation study, guaranteeing that results are both credible and reproducible by third parties. Data analysis is a crucial part of this workflow, where mistakes are often made. Even when appearing in highly regarded venues, scientific graphics in numerous network simulation publications fail to include graphic titles, units, legends, and confidence intervals. After studying the literature in network simulation methodology and in- formation graphics visualization, I developed a visualization component for SAFE to help users avoid these errors in their scientific workflow. The functionality of this new component includes support for interactive visualization through a web-based interface and for the generation of high-quality, static plots that can be included in publications. The overarching goal of my contribution is to help users create graphics that follow best practices in visualization and thereby succeed in conveying the right information about simulation results.

Good agreement between capillary and venous sampling for lectin pathway proteins

Background: The lectin pathway of complement activation, in particular mannose-binding lectin (MBL), has been extensively investigated over recent years. So far, studies were exclusively based on venous samples. The aim of this study was to investigate whether measurements of lectin pathway proteins obtained by capillary sampling are in agreement with venous samples. Methods: Prospective study including 31 infants that were admitted with suspected early-onset sepsis. Lectin pathway proteins were measured in simultaneously obtained capillary and venous samples. Bland–Altman plots of logarithmized results were constructed, and the mean capillary to venous ratios (ratiocap/ven) were calculated with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: The agreement between capillary and venous sampling was very high for MBL (mean ratiocap/ven, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.85–1.19). Similarly, high agreement was observed for H-ficolin (mean ratiocap/ven, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.72–1.44), MASP-2 (1.04; 0.59–1.84), MASP-3 (0.96; 0.71–1.28), and MAp44 (1.01; 0.82–1.25), while the agreement was moderate for M-ficolin (mean ratiocap/ven, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.27–2.28). Conclusions: The results of this study show an excellent agreement between capillary and venous samples for most lectin pathway proteins. Except for M-ficolin, small volume capillary samples can thus be used when assessing lectin pathway proteins in neonates and young children.

Hepatitis C virus and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: Findings from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Infections with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and, possibly, hepatitis B virus (HBV) are associated with an increased risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) in the general population, but little information is available on the relationship between hepatitis viruses and NHL among people with HIV (PHIV). We conducted a matched case-control study nested in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). Two hundred and ninety-eight NHL cases and 889 control subjects were matched by SHCS centre, gender, age group, CD4+ count at enrollment, and length of follow-up. Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed using logistic regression to evaluate the association between NHL and seropositivity for antibodies against HCV (anti-HCV) and hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc), and for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Anti-HCV was not associated with increased NHL risk overall (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.63-1.75), or in different strata of CD4+ count, age or gender. Only among men having sex with men was an association with anti-HCV found (OR = 2.37; 95% CI: 1.03-5.43). No relationships between NHL risk and anti-HBc or HBsAg emerged. Coinfection with HIV and HCV or HBV did not increase NHL risk compared to HIV alone in the SHCS.

Content comparison of health status measures for obesity based on the international classification of functioning, disability and health

OBJECTIVE: To compare the content covered by twelve obesity-specific health status measures using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). DESIGN: Obesity-specific health status measures were identified and then linked to the ICF separately by two trained health professionals according to standardized guidelines. The degree of agreement between health professionals was calculated by means of the kappa (kappa) statistic. Bootstrapped confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The obesity-specific health-status measures were compared on the component and category level of the ICF. MEASUREMENTS: welve condition-specific health-status measures were identified and included in this study, namely the obesity-related problem scale, the obesity eating problems scale, the obesity-related coping and obesity-related distress questionnaire, the impact of weight on quality of life questionnaire (short version), the health-related quality of life questionnaire, the obesity adjustment survey (short form), the short specific quality of life scale, the obesity-related well-being questionnaire, the bariatric analysis and reporting outcome system, the bariatric quality of life index, the obesity and weight loss quality of life questionnaire and the weight-related symptom measure. RESULTS: In the 280 items of the eight measures, a total of 413 concepts were identified and linked to the 87 different ICF categories. The measures varied strongly in the number of concepts contained and the number of ICF categories used to map these concepts. Items on body functions varied form 12% in the obesity-related problem scale to 95% in the weight-related symptom measure. The estimated kappa coefficients ranged between 0.79 (CI: 0.72, 0.86) at the component ICFs level and 0.97 (CI: 0.93, 1.0) at the third ICF's level. CONCLUSION: The ICF proved highly useful for the content comparison of obesity-specific health-status measures. The results may provide clinicians and researchers with new insights when selecting health-status measures for clinical studies in obesity.

Efficacy of psychological therapy in schizophrenia: conclusions from meta-analyses

Over the past years, evidence for the efficacy of psychological therapies in schizophrenia has been summarized in a series of meta-analyses. The present contribution aims to provide a descriptive survey of the evidence for the efficacy of psychological therapies as derived from these meta-analyses and to supplement them by selected findings from an own recent meta-analysis. Relevant meta-analyses and randomized controlled trials were identified by searching several electronic databases and by hand searching of reference lists. In order to compare the findings of the existing meta-analyses, the reported effect sizes were extracted and transformed into a uniform effect size measure where possible. For the own meta-analysis, weighted mean effect size differences between comparison groups regarding various types of outcomes were estimated. Their significance was tested by confidence intervals, and heterogeneity tests were applied to examine the consistency of the effects. From the available meta-analyses, social skills training, cognitive remediation, psychoeducational coping-oriented interventions with families and relatives, as well as cognitive behavioral therapy of persistent positive symptoms emerge as effective adjuncts to pharmacotherapy. Social skills training consistently effectuates the acquisition of social skills, cognitive remediation leads to short-term improvements in cognitive functioning, family interventions decrease relapse and hospitalization rates, and cognitive behavioral therapy results in a reduction of positive symptoms. These benefits seem to be accompanied by slight improvements in social functioning. However, open questions remain as to the specific therapeutic ingredients, to the synergistic effects, to the indication, as well as to the generalizability of the findings to routine care.

Association between reported exposure to road traffic and respiratory symptoms in children: evidence of bias

BACKGROUND: Many studies showing effects of traffic-related air pollution on health rely on self-reported exposure, which may be inaccurate. We estimated the association between self-reported exposure to road traffic and respiratory symptoms in preschool children, and investigated whether the effect could have been caused by reporting bias. METHODS: In a random sample of 8700 preschool children in Leicestershire, UK, exposure to road traffic and respiratory symptoms were assessed by a postal questionnaire (response rate 80%). The association between traffic exposure and respiratory outcomes was assessed using unconditional logistic regression and conditional regression models (matching by postcode). RESULTS: Prevalence odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for self-reported road traffic exposure, comparing the categories 'moderate' and 'dense', respectively, with 'little or no' were for current wheezing: 1.26 (1.13-1.42) and 1.30 (1.09-1.55); chronic rhinitis: 1.18 (1.05-1.31) and 1.31 (1.11-1.56); night cough: 1.17 (1.04-1.32) and 1.36 (1.14-1.62); and bronchodilator use: 1.20 (1.04-1.38) and 1.18 (0.95-1.46). Matched analysis only comparing symptomatic and asymptomatic children living at the same postcode (thus exposed to similar road traffic) showed similar ORs, suggesting that parents of children with respiratory symptoms reported more road traffic than parents of asymptomatic children. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that reporting bias could explain some or even all the association between reported exposure to road traffic and disease. Over-reporting of exposure by only 10% of parents of symptomatic children would be sufficient to produce the effect sizes shown in this study. Future research should be based only on objective measurements of traffic exposure.

Locally generated particulate pollution and respiratory symptoms in young children

BACKGROUND: Particulate matter <10 mum (PM(10)) from fossil fuel combustion is associated with an increased prevalence of respiratory symptoms in children and adolescents. However, the effect of PM(10) on respiratory symptoms in young children is unclear. METHODS: The association between primary PM(10) (particles directly emitted from local sources) and the prevalence and incidence of respiratory symptoms was studied in a random sample cohort of 4400 Leicestershire children aged 1-5 years surveyed in 1998 and again in 2001. Annual exposure to primary PM(10) was calculated for the home address using the Airviro dispersion model and adjusted odds ratios (ORS) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each microg/m(3) increase. RESULTS: Exposure to primary PM(10) was associated with the prevalence of cough without a cold in both 1998 and 2001, with adjusted ORs of 1.21 (1.07 to 1.38) and 1.56 (1.32 to 1.84) respectively. For night time cough the ORs were 1.06 (0.94 to 1.19) and 1.25 (1.06 to 1.47), and for current wheeze 0.99 (0.88 to 1.12) and 1.28 (1.04 to 1.58), respectively. There was also an association between primary PM(10) and new onset symptoms. The ORs for incident symptoms were 1.62 (1.31 to 2.00) for cough without a cold and 1.42 (1.02 to 1.97) for wheeze. CONCLUSION: In young children there was a consistent association between locally generated primary PM(10) and the prevalence and incidence of cough without a cold and the incidence of wheeze which was independent of potential confounders.

Pharmacological prevention of serious anaphylactic reactions due to iodinated contrast media: systematic review

OBJECTIVE: To review the efficacy of pharmacological prevention of serious reactions to iodinated contrast media. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: Systematic search (multiple databases, bibliographies, all languages, to October 2005) for randomised comparisons of pretreatment with placebo or no treatment (control) in patients receiving iodinated contrast media. Review methods Trial quality was assessed by all investigators. Information on trial design, population, interventions, and outcomes was abstracted by one investigator and cross checked by the others. Data were combined by using Peto odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Nine trials (1975-96, 10 011 adults) tested H1 antihistamines, corticosteroids, and an H1-H2 combination. No trial included exclusively patients with a history of allergic reactions. Many outcomes were not allergy related, and only a few were potentially life threatening. No reports on death, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, irreversible neurological deficit, or prolonged hospital stays were found. In two trials, 3/778 (0.4%) patients who received oral methylprednisolone 2x32 mg or intravenous prednisolone 250 mg had laryngeal oedema compared with 11/769 (1.4%) controls (odds ratio 0.31, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 0.88). In two trials, 7/3093 (0.2%) patients who received oral methylprednisolone 2x32 mg had a composite outcome (including shock, bronchospasm, and laryngospasm) compared with 20/2178 (0.9%) controls (odds ratio 0.28, 0.13 to 0.60). In one trial, 1/196 (0.5%) patients who received intravenous clemastine 0.03 mg/kg and cimetidine 2-5 mg/kg had angio-oedema compared with 8/194 (4.1%) controls (odds ratio 0.20, 0.05 to 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Life threatening anaphylactic reactions due to iodinated contrast media are rare. In unselected patients, the usefulness of premedication is doubtful, as a large number of patients need to receive premedication to prevent one potentially serious reaction. Data supporting the use of premedication in patients with a history of allergic reactions are lacking. Physicians who are dealing with these patients should not rely on the efficacy of premedication.

Evaluating Prediction Rules for t-Year Survivors With Censored Regression Models

Suppose that we are interested in establishing simple, but reliable rules for predicting future t-year survivors via censored regression models. In this article, we present inference procedures for evaluating such binary classification rules based on various prediction precision measures quantified by the overall misclassification rate, sensitivity and specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Specifically, under various working models we derive consistent estimators for the above measures via substitution and cross validation estimation procedures. Furthermore, we provide large sample approximations to the distributions of these nonsmooth estimators without assuming that the working model is correctly specified. Confidence intervals, for example, for the difference of the precision measures between two competing rules can then be constructed. All the proposals are illustrated with two real examples and their finite sample properties are evaluated via a simulation study.

A SURVEY OF THE LIKELIHOOD APPROACH TO BIOEQUIVALENCE TRIALS

Bioequivalence trials are abbreviated clinical trials whereby a generic drug or new formulation is evaluated to determine if it is "equivalent" to a corresponding previously approved brand-name drug or formulation. In this manuscript, we survey the process of testing bioequivalence and advocate the likelihood paradigm for representing the resulting data as evidence. We emphasize the unique conflicts between hypothesis testing and confidence intervals in this area - which we believe are indicative of the existence of the systemic defects in the frequentist approach - that the likelihood paradigm avoids. We suggest the direct use of profile likelihoods for evaluating bioequivalence and examine the main properties of profile likelihoods and estimated likelihoods under simulation. This simulation study shows that profile likelihoods are a reasonable alternative to the (unknown) true likelihood for a range of parameters commensurate with bioequivalence research. Our study also shows that the standard methods in the current practice of bioequivalence trials offers only weak evidence from the evidential point of view.

Placebo-controlled trials of Chinese herbal medicine and conventional medicine - comparative study

BACKGROUND: Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) is increasingly used in the West, but the evidence on its effectiveness is a matter of debate. We compared the characteristics, study quality and results of clinical trials of CHM and conventional medicine. METHODS: Comparative study of placebo-controlled trials of CHM and conventional medicine. Eleven bibliographic databases and searches by hand of 48 Chinese-language journals. Conventional medicine trials matched for condition and type of outcome were randomly selected from the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (issue 1, 2003). Trials described as double-blind, with adequate generation of allocation sequence and adequate concealment of allocation, were assumed to be of high quality. Data were analysed using funnel plots and multivariable meta-regression models. RESULTS: 136 CHM trials (119 published in Chinese, 17 published in English) and 136 matched conventional medicine trials (125 published in English) were analysed. The quality of Chinese-language CHM trials tended to be lower than that of English-language CHM trials and conventional medicine trials. Three (2%) CHM trials and 10 (7%) conventional medicine trials were of high quality. In all groups, smaller trials showed more beneficial treatment effects than larger trials. CHM trials published in Chinese showed considerably larger effects than CHM trials published in English (adjusted ratio of ORs 0.29, 95% confidence intervals 0.17-0.52). CONCLUSIONS: Biases are present both in placebo-controlled trials of CHM and conventional medicine, but may be most pronounced in CHM trials published in Chinese-language journals. Only few CHM trials of adequate methodology exist and the effectiveness of CHM therefore remains poorly documented.

Methods and representativeness of a European survey in children and adolescents: the KIDSCREEN study

BACKGROUND: The objective of the present study was to compare three different sampling and questionnaire administration methods used in the international KIDSCREEN study in terms of participation, response rates, and external validity. METHODS: Children and adolescents aged 8-18 years were surveyed in 13 European countries using either telephone sampling and mail administration, random sampling of school listings followed by classroom or mail administration, or multistage random sampling of communities and households with self-administration of the survey materials at home. Cooperation, completion, and response rates were compared across countries and survey methods. Data on non-respondents was collected in 8 countries. The population fraction (PF, respondents in each sex-age, or educational level category, divided by the population in the same category from Eurostat census data) and population fraction ratio (PFR, ratio of PF) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals were used to analyze differences by country between the KIDSCREEN samples and a reference Eurostat population. RESULTS: Response rates by country ranged from 18.9% to 91.2%. Response rates were highest in the school-based surveys (69.0%-91.2%). Sample proportions by age and gender were similar to the reference Eurostat population in most countries, although boys and adolescents were slightly underrepresented (PFR <1). Parents in lower educational categories were less likely to participate (PFR <1 in 5 countries). Parents in higher educational categories were overrepresented when the school and household sampling strategies were used (PFR = 1.78-2.97). CONCLUSION: School-based sampling achieved the highest overall response rates but also produced slightly more biased samples than the other methods. The results suggest that the samples were sufficiently representative to provide reference population values for the KIDSCREEN instrument.