Keeping friends safe : a prospective study examining early adolescent's confidence and support networks

There is a continued need to consider ways to prevent early adolescent engagement in a variety of harmful risk-taking behaviours for example, violence, road-related risks and alcohol use. The current prospective study examined adolescents’ reports of intervening to try and stop friends’ engagement in such behaviours among 207 early adolescents (mean age = 13.51 years, 50.1% females). Findings showed that intervening behaviour after three months was predicted by the confidence to intervene which in turn was predicted by student and teacher support although not parental support. The findings suggest that the benefits of positive relationship experiences might extend to the safety of early adolescent friendship groups particularly through the development of confidence to try and stop friends’ risky and dangerous behaviours. Findings from the study support the important role of the school in creating a culture of positive adolescent behaviour whereby young people take social responsibility.

Bayesian mixtures for modelling complex medical data : a case study in Parkinson’s disease

Mixture models are a flexible tool for unsupervised clustering that have found popularity in a vast array of research areas. In studies of medicine, the use of mixtures holds the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of patient responses through the identification of clinically meaningful clusters that, given the complexity of many data sources, may otherwise by intangible. Furthermore, when developed in the Bayesian framework, mixture models provide a natural means for capturing and propagating uncertainty in different aspects of a clustering solution, arguably resulting in richer analyses of the population under study. This thesis aims to investigate the use of Bayesian mixture models in analysing varied and detailed sources of patient information collected in the study of complex disease. The first aim of this thesis is to showcase the flexibility of mixture models in modelling markedly different types of data. In particular, we examine three common variants on the mixture model, namely, finite mixtures, Dirichlet Process mixtures and hidden Markov models. Beyond the development and application of these models to different sources of data, this thesis also focuses on modelling different aspects relating to uncertainty in clustering. Examples of clustering uncertainty considered are uncertainty in a patient’s true cluster membership and accounting for uncertainty in the true number of clusters present. Finally, this thesis aims to address and propose solutions to the task of comparing clustering solutions, whether this be comparing patients or observations assigned to different subgroups or comparing clustering solutions over multiple datasets. To address these aims, we consider a case study in Parkinson’s disease (PD), a complex and commonly diagnosed neurodegenerative disorder. In particular, two commonly collected sources of patient information are considered. The first source of data are on symptoms associated with PD, recorded using the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) and constitutes the first half of this thesis. The second half of this thesis is dedicated to the analysis of microelectrode recordings collected during Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS), a popular palliative treatment for advanced PD. Analysis of this second source of data centers on the problems of unsupervised detection and sorting of action potentials or "spikes" in recordings of multiple cell activity, providing valuable information on real time neural activity in the brain.

Problematising the processes of participation in networks : working through the rhetoric

Participation in networks, both as a concept and process, is widely supported in environmental education as a democratic and equitable pathway to individual and social change for sustainability. However, the processes of participation in networks are rarely problematized. Rather, it is assumed that we inherently know how to participate in networks. This assumption means that participation is seldom questioned. Underlying support for participation in networks is a belief that it allows individuals to connect in new and meaningful ways, that individuals can engage in making decisions and in bringing about change in arenas that affect them, and that they will be engaging in new, non-hierarchical and equitable relationships. In this paper we problematize participation in networks. As an example we use research into a decentralized network – described as such in its own literature - the Queensland Environmentally Sustainable Schools Initiative Alliance in Australia – to argue that while network participants were engaged and committed to participation in this network, 'old' forms of top-down engagement and relationships needed to be unlearnt. This paper thus proposes that for participation in decentralized networks to be meaningful, new learning about how to participate needs to occur.

A Bayesian approach for estimating detection times in horses : exploring the pharmacokinetics of a urinary acepromazine metabolite

We describe the population pharmacokinetics of an acepromazine (ACP) metabolite (2-(1-hydroxyethyl)promazine) (HEPS) in horses for the estimation of likely detection times in plasma and urine. Acepromazine (30 mg) was administered to 12 horses, and blood and urine samples were taken at frequent intervals for chemical analysis. A Bayesian hierarchical model was fitted to describe concentration-time data and cumulative urine amounts for HEPS. The metabolite HEPS was modelled separately from the parent ACP as the half-life of the parent was considerably less than that of the metabolite. The clearance ($Cl/F_{PM}$) and volume of distribution ($V/F_{PM}$), scaled by the fraction of parent converted to metabolite, were estimated as 769 L/h and 6874 L, respectively. For a typical horse in the study, after receiving 30 mg of ACP, the upper limit of the detection time was 35 hours in plasma and 100 hours in urine, assuming an arbitrary limit of detection of 1 $\mu$g/L, and a small ($\approx 0.01$) probability of detection. The model derived allowed the probability of detection to be estimated at the population level. This analysis was conducted on data collected from only 12 horses, but we assume that this is representative of the wider population.

A Bayesian analysis of an agricultural field trial with three spatial dimensions

Modern technology now has the ability to generate large datasets over space and time. Such data typically exhibit high autocorrelations over all dimensions. The field trial data motivating the methods of this paper were collected to examine the behaviour of traditional cropping and to determine a cropping system which could maximise water use for grain production while minimising leakage below the crop root zone. They consist of moisture measurements made at 15 depths across 3 rows and 18 columns, in the lattice framework of an agricultural field. Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) models are used to account for local site correlations. Conditional autoregressive models have not been widely used in analyses of agricultural data. This paper serves to illustrate the usefulness of these models in this field, along with the ease of implementation in WinBUGS, a freely available software package. The innovation is the fitting of separate conditional autoregressive models for each depth layer, the ‘layered CAR model’, while simultaneously estimating depth profile functions for each site treatment. Modelling interest also lay in how best to model the treatment effect depth profiles, and in the choice of neighbourhood structure for the spatial autocorrelation model. The favoured model fitted the treatment effects as splines over depth, and treated depth, the basis for the regression model, as measured with error, while fitting CAR neighbourhood models by depth layer. It is hierarchical, with separate onditional autoregressive spatial variance components at each depth, and the fixed terms which involve an errors-in-measurement model treat depth errors as interval-censored measurement error. The Bayesian framework permits transparent specification and easy comparison of the various complex models compared.

Structural damage detection using frequency response functions and neural networks

This paper illustrates the damage identification and condition assessment of a three story bookshelf structure using a new frequency response functions (FRFs) based damage index and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). A major obstacle of using measured frequency response function data is a large size input variables to ANNs. This problem is overcome by applying a data reduction technique called principal component analysis (PCA). In the proposed procedure, ANNs with their powerful pattern recognition and classification ability were used to extract damage information such as damage locations and severities from measured FRFs. Therefore, simple neural network models are developed, trained by Back Propagation (BP), to associate the FRFs with the damage or undamaged locations and severity of the damage of the structure. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated and validated by using the real data provided by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA. The illustrated results show that the PCA based artificial Neural Network method is suitable and effective for damage identification and condition assessment of building structures. In addition, it is clearly demonstrated that the accuracy of proposed damage detection method can also be improved by increasing number of baseline datasets and number of principal components of the baseline dataset.

Microstrip decoupling networks for low-order multi-port arrays with reduced element spacing

An array of monopole elements with reduced element spacing of λ/6 to λ/20 is considered for application in digital beam-forming and direction-finding. The small element spacing introduces strong mutual coupling between the array elements. This paper discusses that decoupling can be achieved analytically for arrays with three elements and describes Kuroda’s identities to realize the lumped elements of the derived decoupling network. Design procedures and equations are proposed. Experimental results are presented. The decoupled array has a bandwidth of 1% and a superdirective radiation pattern.

Diversified service provisioning in global business networks

Companies and their services are being increasingly exposed to global business networks and Internet-based ondemand services. Much of the focus is on flexible orchestration and consumption of services, beyond ownership and operational boundaries of services. However, ways in which third-parties in the “global village” can seamlessly self-create new offers out of existing services remains open. This paper proposes a framework for service provisioning in global business networks that allows an open-ended set of techniques for extending services through a rich, multi-tooling environment. The Service Provisioning Management Framework, as such, supports different modeling techniques, through supportive tools, allowing different parts of services to be integrated into new contexts. Integration of service user interfaces, business processes, operational interfaces and business object are supported. The integration specifications that arise from service extensions are uniformly reflected through a kernel technique, the Service Integration Technique. Thus, the framework preserves coherence of service provisioning tasks without constraining the modeling techniques needed for extending different aspects of services.

Impact of embeddedness in ethnic networks on business growth : evidence from Chinese immigrant entrepreneurs in Australia

Immigrant entrepreneurship, or, self-employment by immigrants (Light & Bonacich, 1988), has been of growing interest to researchers (Hosler, 1996). This is due in part to major immigrant receiving countries, such as Australia, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Western Europe, experiencing a high growth rate in their immigrant populations, leading to a more visible presence of immigrant business in major cities (Woon, 2008). By starting their own businesses, immigrant entrepreneurs may circumvent some of the barriers and disadvantages encountered in looking for a job (Sequeira & Rasheed, 2006). Successful immigrant entrepreneurs will integrate into the economy by creating jobs, providing products and services for members of their own ethnic community and society, as well as introducing new products and services that expand consumers’ choices (Rath & Kloosterman, 2000). Immigrant entrepreneurs tend to start business within their ethnic enclave, as it is an integral part of their social and cultural context and the location where ethnic resources reside (Logan et al., 2002). An ethnic enclave is an interdependent network of social and business relationships that are geographically concentrated with its co-ethnic people (Portes & Bach, 1985).

A Bayesian‐Markov process for reliability prediction

Accurate reliability prediction for large-scale, long lived engineering is a crucial foundation for effective asset risk management and optimal maintenance decision making. However, a lack of failure data for assets that fail infrequently, and changing operational conditions over long periods of time, make accurate reliability prediction for such assets very challenging. To address this issue, we present a Bayesian-Marko best approach to reliability prediction using prior knowledge and condition monitoring data. In this approach, the Bayesian theory is used to incorporate prior information about failure probabilities and current information about asset health to make statistical inferences, while Markov chains are used to update and predict the health of assets based on condition monitoring data. The prior information can be supplied by domain experts, extracted from previous comparable cases or derived from basic engineering principles. Our approach differs from existing hybrid Bayesian models which are normally used to update the parameter estimation of a given distribution such as the Weibull-Bayesian distribution or the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. Instead, our new approach can be used to update predictions of failure probabilities when failure data are sparse or nonexistent, as is often the case for large-scale long-lived engineering assets.

PySSM : a Python module for Bayesian inference of linear Gaussian state space models

PySSM is a Python package that has been developed for the analysis of time series using linear Gaussian state space models (SSM). PySSM is easy to use; models can be set up quickly and efficiently and a variety of different settings are available to the user. It also takes advantage of scientific libraries Numpy and Scipy and other high level features of the Python language. PySSM is also used as a platform for interfacing between optimised and parallelised Fortran routines. These Fortran routines heavily utilise Basic Linear Algebra (BLAS) and Linear Algebra Package (LAPACK) functions for maximum performance. PySSM contains classes for filtering, classical smoothing as well as simulation smoothing.

Book Review: "Mark Considine, Jenny Lewis and Damon Alexander Networks, Innovation and Public Policy : Politicians, Bureaucrats and the Pathways to Change inside Government Houndsmills, UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009"

Having wrung the most from workforce and workplace productivity initiaitves, innovation has come to the fore as a key goal and directive for public sector organisations to become more efficient. This clarion call for innovation can be heard all around the world, with public services everywhere taking up the message to develop better, smarter, novel, more innovative processes, programs and policies. In the current push for innovation, networks are considered to be a superior vehicle through which collective knowledge can be shared and leveraged; replacing or at least supplementing the role function previously provided by inventive leaders...

A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate model uncertainty in Bayesian sequential design

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.

Finding and matching communities in social networks using data mining

The rapid growth in the number of users using social networks and the information that a social network requires about their users make the traditional matching systems insufficiently adept at matching users within social networks. This paper introduces the use of clustering to form communities of users and, then, uses these communities to generate matches. Forming communities within a social network helps to reduce the number of users that the matching system needs to consider, and helps to overcome other problems from which social networks suffer, such as the absence of user activities' information about a new user. The proposed system has been evaluated on a dataset obtained from an online dating website. Empirical analysis shows that accuracy of the matching process is increased using the community information.