The accuracy of students' predictions of their GCSE grades

The paper reports a study that investigated the relationship between students’ self-predicted and actual General Certificate of Secondary Education results in order to establish the extent of over- and under-prediction and whether this varies by subject and across genders and socio-economic groupings. It also considered the relationship between actual and predicted attainment and attitudes towards going to university. The sample consisted of 109 young people in two schools being followed up from an earlier study. Just over 50% of predictions were accurate and students were much more likely to over-predict than to under-predict. Most errors of prediction were only one grade out and may reflect examination unreliability as well as student misperceptions. Girls were slightly less likely than boys to over-predict but there were no differences associated with social background. Higher levels of attainment, both actual and predicted, were strongly associated with positive attitudes to university. Differences between predictions and results are likely to reflect examination errors as well as pupil errors. There is no evidence that students from more advantaged social backgrounds over-estimate themselves compared with other students, although boys over-estimate themselves compared with girls.

Inferring animal husbandry strategies in coastal zones through stable isotope analysis: new evidence from the Flemish coastal plain (Belgium, 1st-15th century AD)

In a proof-of-concept study, Britton et al. (2008) demonstrated that the isotopic composition of halophytic plants can be traced in the skeletal tissues of their animal consumers. Here we apply the method to domestic herbivore remains (n = 303) from nine archaeological sites in or near the Flemish coastal plain (Belgium), where, prior to embankments, salt-marshes offered extensive pasture grounds for domestic herbivores. The sites span a period of ∼1500 years (Roman to late medieval period), during which the coastal landscape was progressively transformed from little managed wetlands to a fully embanked polder area. The bulk collagen data show variations between sites and over time, which are consistent with this historical framework and are interpreted as reflecting environmental change and differences in animal management in the coastal plain throughout the late Holocene. The study demonstrates the immense value of faunal stable isotope analysis for characterising coastal husbandry strategies beyond the means of traditional zooarchaeological techniques.

Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting.

Following trends in operational weather forecasting, where ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are now increasingly the norm, flood forecasters are beginning to experiment with using similar ensemble methods. Most of the effort to date has focused on the substantial technical challenges of developing coupled rainfall-runoff systems to represent the full cascade of uncertainties involved in predicting future flooding. As a consequence much less attention has been given to the communication and eventual use of EPS flood forecasts. Drawing on interviews and other research with operational flood forecasters from across Europe, this paper highlights a number of challenges to communicating and using ensemble flood forecasts operationally. It is shown that operational flood forecasters understand the skill, operational limitations, and informational value of EPS products in a variety of different and sometimes contradictory ways. Despite the efforts of forecasting agencies to design effective ways to communicate EPS forecasts to non-experts, operational flood forecasters were often skeptical about the ability of forecast recipients to understand or use them appropriately. It is argued that better training and closer contacts between operational flood forecasters and EPS system designers can help ensure the uncertainty represented by EPS forecasts is represented in ways that are most appropriate and meaningful for their intended consumers, but some fundamental political and institutional challenges to using ensembles, such as differing attitudes to false alarms and to responsibility for management of blame in the event of poor or mistaken forecasts are also highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

Half-remembered quotations from mostly forgotten speeches: the limits of Labour’s European policy discourse

This article uses discourse analysis to study the continuities in British foreign policy thinking within the Labour party from the 1960s to the present day. Using representative extracts from speeches by Hugh Gaitskell, Harold Wilson, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, it identifies the ideational consis- tencies in the leaders’ attitudes to: Empire; federalism in the EEC/EU; and laying down conditions that have to be met before any constructive engagement with ‘Europe’ can be countenanced. We argue that these consistencies, spanning a 50-year period, exemplify a certain stagnation both within Labour’s European discourses and within British foreign policy thinking more widely. We develop the idea that Labour party thinking has been crucially framed by both small ‘c’ conser- vative and upper-case Conservative ideology, popularised by Winston Churchill in his ‘three circles’ model of British foreign policy.

Information and punitiveness: trial reconstruction in Ireland

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report results from a rape trial reconstruction in Ireland. Design/methodology/approach – A studio audience of 100 members of the Irish public were selected to attend a TV programme by the Republic of Ireland’s national broadcasting organisation. This involved the examination of the sentencing of a rape case. The audience’s sentencing preferences were measured at the outset, when they had been given only summary information about the case, and later, when full details had been disclosed. Findings – Previous research examining changes in public attitudes to crime and punishment has shown that deliberation, including the provision of new information and discussion with others and experts, tends to decrease public punitiveness and increase public leniency towards sentencing. An experiment in Ireland, however, showed that providing information does not invariably and necessarily moderate punitive attitudes. This paper presents the results, and offers some explanations for the anomalous outcome. Research limitations/implications – The pre/post design, in which the audience served as their own controls, is a weak one, and participants may have responded to what they took to be the agenda of the producers. Due to the quality of the sample, the results may not be generalisable to the broader Irish population. Practical implications – Policy makers should recognise that the public is not uniformly punitive for all crimes. There is good research evidence to show that the apparent public appetite for tough punishment is illusory, and is a function of the way that polls measure public attitudes to punishment. Sentencers and those responsible for sentencing policy would benefit from a fuller understanding of the sorts of cases which illicit strong punitive responses from the public, and the reasons for this response. However any such understanding should not simply translate into responsiveness to the public’s punitive sentiments – where these exist. Innovative survey methods – like this experiment – which attempt to look beyond the top-of-the-head opinions by providing information and opportunities for deliberation should be welcomed and used more widely. Originality/value – There have been limited research studies which reports factors which may increase punitiveness through the provision of information and deliberation.

Auf dem Prüfstein: Die Umgangsweise der japanischen Regierung mit der Todesstrafe

This paper examines public attitudes to the death penalty in Japan, and explores the validity of claims about »majority public support« that have been used by the Japanese government to justify retention. This is done by analyzing three public perception surveys on the legitimacy of the Japanese death penalty system. This paper criticizes the Japanese government for accepting its own survey results, which, at face value, appear to show support for the death penalty; moreover, it concludes that the Japanese public would likely endorse the abolition of the death penalty without damaging the legitimacy of state institutions.

Individual differences in early language learning: a study of English learners of French

The present longitudinal study examines the interaction of learner variables (gender, motivation, self-efficacy and first language literacy) and their influence on second language learning outcomes. The study follows English learners of French from Year 5 in primary school (aged 9-10) to the first year in secondary school (Year 7 aged 11-12). Language outcomes were measured by two oral production tasks; a sentence repetition task and a photo description task both of which were administered at three time points. Longitudinal data on learner attitudes and motivation were collected via questionnaires. Teacher assessment data for general first language literacy attainment were also provided. The results show a great deal of variation in learner attitudes and outcomes and that there is a complex relationship between first language literacy, self-efficacy, gender and attainment. For example, in general, girls held more positive attitudes to boys and were more successful. However, the inclusion of first language ability, which explained 30-40% of variation, shows that gender differences in attitudes and outcomes are likely mediated by first language literacy and prior learning experience.

世論という神話―望むのは「死刑」ですか？’ (Public opinion myth: is ‘death’ what we really want?)

This paper summarises Mai Sato's recent report on public attitudes to the death penalty in Japan.

Evaluation on the effectiveness of actions for controlling infestation by rodents in Campo Limpo region, Sao Paulo Municipality, Brazil

Rodents are responsible for the transmission of more than 60 diseases both to human beings and to domestic animals. The increase in rodent infestation in a given area brings several health problems to the nearby population. Thus, when infestation increases, it is time to take intervention measures. Although many countries have implemented programs aimed at controlling rodent infestation, literature on studies evaluating the effectiveness of intervention measures in urban areas is scarce. Aimed at contributing to the understanding of rodents` population dynamics in urban areas, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the control methods proposed by ""Programa de Vigilancia e Controle de Roedores do Municipio de Sao Paulo`` (Program for Rodents Surveillance and Control in Sao Paulo Municipality), conducted on Jardim Comercial District. As a first step, a survey to assess infestation rates was conducted in 1529 dwellings located in the area studied. After that, a chemical control upon rodents was accomplished in every dwelling infested. One week and six months after completion of control measures, a new evaluation on infestation rates was carried out, in order to verify the effectiveness of the procedures taken and to estimate the re-infestation capacity. Initial infestation rate was 40.0%, and the final infestation rate, 14.4%. Therefore, the effectiveness of the control methods utilized was 63.8%. It can thus be concluded that the control methods applied were quite effective.

Detection of metallo-beta-lactamases-encoding genes in environmental isolates of Aeromonas hydrophila and Aeromonas jandaei

Aims: To determine the prevalence and expression of metallo-beta-lactamases (MBL)-encoding genes in Aeromonas species recovered from natural water reservoirs in southeastern Brazil. Methods and Results: Eighty-seven Aeromonas isolates belonging to Aeromonas hydrophila (n = 41) and Aer. jandaei (n = 46) species were tested for MBL production by the combined disk test using imipenem and meropenem disks as substrates and EDTA or thioglycolic acid as inhibitors. The presence of MBL genes was investigated by PCR and sequencing using new consensus primer pairs designed in this study. The cphA gene was found in 97.6% and 100% of Aer. hydrophila and Aer. jandaei isolates, respectively, whereas the acquired MBL genes bla(IMP), bla(VIM) and bla(SPM-1) were not detected. On the other hand, production of MBL activity was detectable in 87.8% and 10.9% of the cphA-positive Aer. hydrophila and Aer. jandaei isolates respectively. Conclusions: Our results indicate that cphA seems to be intrinsic in the environmental isolates of Aer. hydrophila and Aer. jandaei in southeastern Brazil, although, based on the combined disk test, not all of them are apparently able to express the enzymatic activity. Significance and Impact of the Study: These data confirm the presence of MBL-producing Aeromonas species in natural water reservoirs. Risk of water-borne diseases owing to domestic and industrial uses of freshwater should be re-examined from the increase of bacterial resistance point of view.

Sjuksköterskestudenters och sjuksköterskors inställning till och erfarenheter av informationsteknologiskt stöd i vården : En systematisk litteraturstudie

Syftet med denna systematiska litteraturstudie var att undersöka studenters och sjuksköterskors inställning till informationsteknologi, samt studenters erfarenhet av IT och möjlighet att utnyttja IT i klinisk utbildning. Använda databaser var Medline, Science Direct, och Google Scholar. Följande sökord användes: nursing, student, documentation, attitudes to computers, computerized, och medical record. Femton artiklar ingick, varav nio hade kvantitativ ansats och sex kvalitativ ansats. Resultatet visade att yngre studenter inte hade lika högt förtroende för teknologi som äldre studenter. Resultatet var inte det väntade då yngre studenter haft möjlighet att använda datorer i grundskolan. IT i undervisningen ökade dock förtroendet för tekniken. När handdator (PDA) blev ett verktyg, blev den också ett stöd i kritiskt tänkande och informationshantering och bidrog till att öka kvaliteten på omvårdnaden. Speciellt nöjda var studenter med att ha snabb och enkel tillgång till information jämfört med att söka information i böcker. Problem med PDA kunde gälla svårighet att lära sig tekniken, negativ inställning hos personal och tekniska brister. Sättet att introducera IT hade stor betydelse för studenters benägenhet att acceptera eller ta avstånd från IT. Elektronisk patientjournal resulterade inte i bättre vård. Gamla problem kunde lösas men nya uppstod. Testresultat försvann inte men kunde fortfarande förbises. Risken fanns för motsägelsefulla medicinska data relaterat till dubbla journalföringssystem.

Populärmusik i TV-reklam : En kvalitativ undersökning av musiken som betydelsebärande teckensystem

This paper examines a popular music song (Heartbeats by Jose Gonzalez) as a sign system in television advertising. The study was conducted through qualitative questionnaires in connection to an audio-visual method of analysis called Masking. The method facilitates the analysis of isolated parts in the audio-visual spectrum by masking/hiding parts of the audio-visual totality.The survey had seven respondents where a hermeneutic epistemological approach was used. For the analysis Cooper's theory of brand identity (Practical and Symbolic Attitudes to Buying Brands) was used together with an interaction model for music in audio-visual advertising called "Modes of music-image interaction”. The results showed that the music was associated with values as genuine, honest, responsibility, purity, independence and innovation. The music's symbolic values helped to position the brand in a lifestyle context. The music also helped to express the target group’s identity and attitudes by being innovative and independent. It also enhanced the perception of the visual colour rendition in the film. In general the television advertisement perceived more positive and entertaining when the music was present. In other words the music's social and cultural position contributed to raise the film's credibility. A deeper social and cultural value was created in the movie through resonance between symbolic values of the music and symbolic values of the film.

Elbesparing med pelletkaminer och solvärme i direktelvärmda småhus

The aim of this study was to investigate how electricallyheated houses can be converted to using wood pellet and solarheating. There are a large number of wood pellet stoves on themarket. Many stoves have a water jacket, which gives anopportunity to distribute the heat to domestic hot water and aradiator heating system. Three typical Swedish houses with electric resistanceheating have been studied. Fourteen different system conceptsusing wood pellet stoves and solar heating systems have beenevaluated. The systems and the houses have been simulated indetail using TRNSYS. The houses have been divided in up to 10different zones and heat transfer by air circulation throughdoorways and open doors have been simulated. The pellet stoveswere simulated using a recently developed TRNSYS component,which models the start- and stop phases, emissions and thedynamic behaviour of the stoves. The model also calculates theCO-emissions. Simulations were made with one stove without awater jacket and two stoves with different fractions of thegenerated heat distributed in the water circuit. Simulations show that the electricity savings using a pelletstove are greatly affected by the house plan, the systemchoice, if the internal doors are open or closed and thedesired level of comfort. Installing a stove with awater-jacket connected to a radiator system and a hot waterstorage has the advantage that heat can be transferred todomestic hot water and be distributed to other rooms. Suchsystems lead to greater electricity savings, especially inhouses having a traditional layout. It was found that not allrooms needed radiators and that it was more effective in mostcases t use a stove with a higher fraction of the heatdistributed by the water circuit. The economic investigation shows that installing a woodpellet stove without a water jacket gives the lowest totalenergy- and capital costs in the house with an open plan (fortoday's energy prices and the simulated comfort criteria). Inthe houses with a traditional layout a pellet stove givesslightly higher costs than the reference house having onlyelectrical resistance heating due to the fact that less heatingcan be replaced. The concepts including stoves with a waterjacket all give higher costs than the reference system, but theconcept closest to be economical is a system with a bufferstore, a stove with a high fraction of the heat distributed bythe water circuit, a new water radiator heating system and asolar collector. Losses from stoves can be divided into: flue gas lossesincluding leakage air flow when the stove is not in operation;losses during start and stop phases; and losses due to a highair factor. An increased efficiency of the stoves is importantboth from a private economical point of view, but also from theperspective that there can be a lack of bio fuel in the nearfuture also in Sweden. From this point of view it is alsoimportant to utilize as much solar heat as possible. Theutilization of solar heat is low in the simulated systems,depending on the lack of space for a large buffer store. The simulations have shown that the annual efficiency ismuch lower that the nominal efficiency at full power. Thesimulations have also shown that changing the control principlefor the stove can improve efficiency and reduce theCO-emissions. Today's most common control principle for stovesis the on/off control, which results in many starts and stopsand thereby high CO-emissions. A more advanced control varyingthe heating rate from maximum to minimum to keep a constantroom temperature reduces the number of starts and stops andthereby the emissions. Also the efficiency can be higher withsuch a control, and the room temperature will be kept at a moreconstant temperature providing a higher comfort.

Gravida kvinnors tankar om amning

Internationellt sett är amningsfrekvensen i dagens Sverige hög, men har minskat något senaste åren. Studier visar att inställningen till amning är positiv, men att kvinnor upplever svårigheter i samband med amning samt en brist på information och stöd. Syftet med fördjupningsarbetet var att belysa gravida kvinnors tankar om amning, amningsinformation och stöd. Studien genomfördes med kvalitativ ansats, där data samlades in genom fokusgruppsintervjuer med 18 gravida kvinnor hösten 2012. Data bearbetades med innehållsanalys. Analysen gav ett övergripande tema; Balans mellan förväntningar och svårigheter. Fem kategorier framkom; Att vara medveten om amningens fördelar, Att vara medveten om svårigheter med amning, Att planera för sin kommande amning, Att påverkas av sin omgivning och Att ha förväntningar på stöd inför kommande amning. Resultatet visade att gravida kvinnor var medvetna om amningens fördelar och svårigheter, omgivningen påverkade deras tankar och kvinnorna ansåg ofta att amningen ”löser sig naturligt”. Tydligast framkom kvinnors känsla av bristande kunskap om amningsproblem och en önskan att få amningsinformation sent i graviditet. Amningsinformation som ges under graviditet bör vara varierad, innehållsrik och förbereda föräldrarna på att amning kan vara påfrestande. Det är viktigt att involvera partnern i information och förberedelser för amning.   Nyckelord: amning, graviditet, amningsstöd, amningsinformation, amningsproblem

Förståelse, bedömningar och hjälpinsatser : Socialarbetares arbete med män som våldsoffer

This report outlines the background to, and presents the results from the Crime Victim Compensation and Support Authority funded project "Social Workers' understanding of men as victims of crime". The project aimed at describing and analyzing how social workers understand and work with male victims of violence. More precisely, the research has focused on how social workers describe men's vulnerability and how they understand men's needs for assistance, what assistance that is provided and the way the constellations of perpetrators and victims of different gender and contexts in which the violence occurs in affect the understanding of male victims of violence. The study has also been devoted to the question of whether the Support Centers for young crime victims in Sweden provide different types of and different amount of help to young men and women afflicted of violence. The project was conducted in three substudies. The results from substudy 1 show that more young men than women seek support from the Support centers studied. Men predominate in number of cases and in the different categories of crime. The results also show that young men on average receive less assistance over a shorter average duration than young women. This applies irrespective of the category of offense that the vulnerability applies to. Furthermore, the young men, compared to the women, proportionally receive fewer interventions characterized as support and a greater proportion of interventions in the form of information. The results also show that the young men are referred on for further action to a lesser extent than is the case for women. The results from substudy 2 show that social workers tend to focus on whether, and to what extent, young men who are victims of violence themselves have behaved provocatively before the violence incident and if they have put themselves in a social situation that could be interpreted as having contributed to an escalation of the violence they have been subjected to. The results from substudy 2 also show that social workers talk about the men as active in the violent situations they have been involved in and dwell on the extent to which the young men's own actions have contributed to the violence. The results also show that young men who are victims of violence are described as "reluctant" victims who are trying to cope with their situation on their own without the involvement of professional or other helper. The young men are also described as reluctant to talk about their feelings. The results of substudy 3 show that social workers believe that young men, when they become victims of violence, risks losing their sense of autonomy, initiative and decisiveness, that is, attributes that are often linked to the dominating cultural image of masculinity. Furthermore, the results show that social workers estimate that men's practicing of their masculinity, but also the response that men who are traumatized get from society, creates difficulties for them to get help. The results from substudy 3 also shows that attributes and actions that can be connected to the masculinity of young men's, as well as a lack of such attributes and actions are considered to be adequate explanations for the violence the men has suffered. When it comes to violence in public places it is the masculinity that explains the violence and its escalation. When it comes to domestic violence it is the lack of expected male attributes and actions that are used as explanations for the violence that have occurred. The discussion is devoted to the question of how the results should be understood based on the concepts of self-performance, interpretation, negotiation and categorizations, and the consequences the results obtained should have for gender sensitive social work given to abused men.